Trade balance and real exchange rate:new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

In this study we investigate whether there exists a relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance using bilateral data for the Mauritius/UK trade. We also investigate whether following depreciation or a devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements and subsequently improves when new contracts for international trade are signed. Using a variety of econometric techniques we are able to establish that there exists a long-run relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. The existence of such a relationship signifies that the authorities would be able to use the exchange rate to steer the trade balance. We also find following a depreciation or devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements but the trade balance subsequently improves when new contracts are signed. This signifies that if the authorities want to devalue their currency to improve the trade balance, the desired effect does not occur immediately but it occurs with a lag, in this particular case after approximately a year.

The French Confederation Generale du Travail and the International Secretariat of National Trade Union Centres (1900-1914):French syndicalist attitudes towards internationalism and the International Labour Movement

This thesis examines relations between the French Confederation Generale du Travail (CGT) and the labour movements of other countries in the years leading up to the First World War. The aim of the study is to examine the CGT's policy of internationalism in practice, both in relations with other labour movements and in its membership of the International Secretariat of National Trade Union Centres (between 1900 and 1914). In particular, the relationship between the French and German labour movements is explored in the light of the events of August 1914. This study shows that the relationship was a reflection of the respective positions of the French and German labour movements in the international movement. It also subjects to close scrutiny the assumption, widely made before 1914, that workers had more in common with each other than with the ruling classes of their own country, by analysing the extent of, and the reasons for internationalism and international cooperation in the labour movement. As a study of the International Secretariat of National Trade Union Centres, an organisation about which very little has previously been written, this thesis complements existing work on the international labour movement prior to 1914. It also provides new insights into the French CGT by concentrating on the fundamental areas of internationalism and opposition to war, and offers fresh contributions to the continuing debate on the international labour movement and its response to the outbreak of war.

Trade unions and productivity:the impact of union presence on labour productivity in Korean manufacturing

This thesis examines the theoretical and empirical relationship between trade unions and productivity in the Korean auto and cement manufacturing industries, during the 1980s. It challenges the tenets of the existing debate by stressing the contingent nature of this relationship. In particular this thesis pinpoints inadequacies of econometric analysis as the only method of judging this association between union presence and productivity, because this ignores national and historical industrial relations contexts. Moreover, the polarity between positive and negative views of trade union influences on productivity is seen as needlessly limited, failing as it does to consider the full context of labour-management dynamics within the employment relationship. Empirically, this thesis focuses on the unionism and productivity during two contrasting political periods: the first a time of constraint on union action and the second a period of relative freedom. It examines these periods using a full range of quantitative and qualitative analysis. Of particular significant is the inclusion of attitude surveys of the relationship between the presence of unions and productivity conducted amongst workers, managers and trade union officials. The broad conclusion of the thesis is a rejection of the validity of continuing to examine the relationship between trade unions and productivity without locating this within national and historical industrial relations contexts.

Approaches to issues of job regulation. A study at branch level in a white collar, public sector trade union. Available in 2 volumes.

This study examines the internal dynamics of white collar trade union branches in the public sector. The effects of a number of internal and external factors on branch patterns of action are evaluated. For the purposes of the study branch action is taken to be the approach to issues of job regulation, as expressed along the five dimensions of dependence on the outside trade union, focus in issues adopted, initiation of issues, intensity of action in issue pursuit and representativeness. The setting chosen for the study is four branches drawn from the same geographical area of the National and Local Government Officers Association. Branches were selected to give a variety in industry settings while controlling for the potentially influential variables of branch size, density of trade union membership and possession of exclusive representational rights in the employing organisation. Identical methods of data collection were used for each branch. The principal findings of the study are that the framework of national agreements and industry collective bargaining structures are strongly related to the industrial relations climate in the employing organisation and the structures of representation within the branch. Where agreements and collective bargaining structures formally restrict branch job regulation roles, there is a degree of devolution of bargaining authority from branch level negotiators to autonomous shop stewards at workplace level. In these circumstances industrial relations climate is characterised by a degree of informality in relationships between management and trade union activists. In turn, industrial relations climate and representative structures together with actor attitudes, have strong effects on all dimensions of approach to issues of job regulation.

Trade union policy and new technology: the Civil and Public Services Association

The introduction of a micro-electronic based technology to the workplace has had a far reaching and widespread effect on the numbers and content of jobs. The importance of the implications of new technology were recognised by the trade unions, leading to a plethora of advice and literature in the late 70s and early 80s, notably the TUC 'Technology and Employment ' report. However, studies into the union response have consistently found an overall lack of influence by unions in the introduction of technology. Whilst the advent of new technology has coincided with an industrial relations climate of unprecedented hostility to union activity in the post-war period, there are structural weaknesses in unions in coming to terms with the process of technological change. In particular was the identification of a lack of suitable technological expertise. Addressing itself to this perceived weakness of the union response, this thesis is the outcome of a collaborative project between a national union and an academic institution. The thesis is based on detailed case studies concerning technology bargaining in the Civil Service and the response of the Civil and Public Services Associations (CPSA), the union that represents lower grade white collar civil servants. It is demonstrated that the application of expertise to union negotiators is insufficient on its own to extend union influence and that for unions to effectively come to terms with technology and influence its development requires a re-assessment across all spheres of union activity. It is suggested that this has repercussions for not only the internal organisation and quality of union policy formation and the extent, form and nature of collective bargaining with employer representatives, but also in the relationship with consumer and interest groups outside the traditional collective bargaining forum. Three policy options are developed in the thesis with the 'adversarial' and 'co~operative' options representing the more traditional reactive and passive forms of involvement. These are contrasted with an 'independent participative' form of involvement which was a 'pro-active' policy option and utilised the expertise of the Author in the CPSA's response to technological change.

Caste, class and Trade Unionism in India

The caste system in India and its exploitative nature has been well researched (Siddique 2011 Gupta 2000). However, the role of caste in Indian employment relations and in particular its role in the labor movement in India is yet to be fully explored. The primary aim of this paper is to examine the rise of caste- based trade unions in India over the past decade. Specifically, we aim to examine why the lower-caste workers (historically treated as untouchables, referred to as ‘Dalits’and officially designated as Scheduled Caste and Tribes) are leaving established trade unions to organize their own unions along caste lines? While fragmentation of trade unions is a well-known phenomenon both in India and in the Western World (Shyam Sundar 2015; Connolly et al. 2014), the rise of caste based trade unions is a relatively new phenomenon which is yet to be fully explored. Caste based trade unionism appears to be counter-intuitive when the conventional logic suggests that unions are class based collective institutions which represent the interest of the working classes (Ramaswamy 1976). The Indian trade union movement has historically been fragmented along political ideological lines ranging from moderate unions affiliated to the Congress Party to the militant unions affiliated to the Communist and Socialist parties. However, the rise of caste-based trade unions of the lower caste workers is a relatively new phenomenon. Our findings from surveys and interviews with mainstream unions and caste-based trade unions suggest that the caste-based trade unions are unique in at least three ways. First, these unions are breaking away from well-established radical and militant union federations such as those affiliated to the Communist and Socialist parties. Second, these unions are predominantly organized on caste identities and not occupational identities or political ideologies. Third in unionized workplaces, lower caste workers are forming their own separate unions along caste lines with membership restricted only to workers of their own caste instead of joining the mainstream unions where present. We examine these issues using the analytical framework of Paulo Freire (1970) – dialogics, praxis and cultural oppression and relate it with the insights from comparative politics which examine the role of actors & their interests within institutions (Peters 2011).

The impacts of trade policy reforms on the Sri Lankan economy

This dissertation presents an analysis of the impacts of trade policy reforms in Sri Lanka. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed with detailed description of the domestic production structure and foreign trade. The model is then used to investigate the effects of trade policy reforms on resource allocation and welfare.^ Prior to 1977, Sri Lanka maintained stringent control over its imports through rigid quantitative restrictions. A new economic policy reform package was introduced in 1977, and it shifted Sri Lanka's development strategy toward an export oriented policy regime. The shift of policy focus from a restrictive trade regime toward a more open trade regime is expected to have a significant impact on the volume of external trade, domestic production structure, allocation of resources, and social welfare.^ Simulations are carried out to assess the effects of three major policy reforms: (1) a devaluation of the Sri Lanka rupee, (2) a partial or a complete elimination of export duties, and (3) a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties.^ Simulation results indicate that the macroeconomic impact of a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties can be substantial. They also suggest that the resource-pull effects of a devaluation and a devaluation-cum-export duty removal policy are significant. However, the model shows that a devaluation combined with an export duty reduction is likely to be a superior strategy. ^

Pivot or periphery? Xinjiang's regional development and Chinese-Central Asian relations at the century's end

Xinjiang, once described by Owen Lattimore as the "pivot of Asia", has played a strategically important role in China's national defense and security. Historically linked on the famous Silk Road with Central Asia, Xinjiang was crucial to East-West economic and cultural exchanges. During the period of Russian/Soviet expansion into Central Asia and Sino-Soviet rivalry, China's need for Xinjiang's defense and territorial integrity became paramount, and consequently Xinjiang's economy was relegated to the periphery.^ The demise of the Soviet Union--which resulted in the independence of five Central Asian states--and China's reform suggest dramatic new possibilities for Xinjiang's regional development as well as interregional cooperation. As China has begun to shift regional emphasis to the interior, Xinjiang's economic development will be accelerated. With the growth of Sino/Xinjiang-Central Asian relations, Xinjiang's importance will not only be borne out in terms of defense and security, but more significantly in terms of trade and economics. At the century's end and the beginning of the 21st century, Xinjiang will likely move away from the periphery and play an increasingly pivotal role in the economy. ^

Three essays on trade and investment

From H. G. Johnson's work (Review of Economic Studies, 1953–54) on tariff retaliation, the questions of whether a country can win a “tariff war” and how or even the broader question of what will affect a country's strategic position in setting bilateral tariff have been tackled in various situations. Although it is widely accepted that a country will have strategic advantages in winning the tariff war if its relative monopoly power is sufficiently large, it is unclear what are the forces behind such power formation. The goal of this research is to provide a unified framework and discuss various forces such as relative country size, absolute advantages and relative advantages simultaneously. In a two-country continuum-of-commodity neoclassical trade model, it is shown that sufficiently large relative country size is a sufficient condition for a country to choose a non-cooperative tariff Nash equilibrium over free trade. It is also shown that technology disparities such as absolute advantage, rate of technology disparity and the distribution of the technology disparity all contribute to a country's strategic position and interact with country size. ^ Leverage effect is usually used to explain the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility in equity returns. However, leverage itself can only account for parts of the asymmetry. In this research, it is shown that stock return volatility is related to firms’ financial status. Financially constrained firms tend to be more sensitive to the return changes. Financial constraint factor explains why some firms tend to be more volatile than others. I found that the financial constraint factor explains the stock return volatility independent of other factors such as firm size, industry affiliation and leverage. Firms’ industry affiliations are shown to be very weak in differentiating volatility. Firm size is proven to be a good factor in distinguishing the different levels of volatility and volatility-return sensitivity. Leverage hypothesis is also partly corroborated and the situation where leverage effect is not applicable is discussed. Finally, I examined the macroeconomic policy's effects on overall market volatility. ^

Why and how multinational corporations influence the trade negotiation process in Latin America

This thesis examines two research questions: (1) Why do Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) try to influence trade negotiations in the Latin American context? and (2) How do MNEs influence the trade negotiation process in Latin America? The results show that the MNE's main reasons for participation are: (1) to gain market access and, specifically, to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers; (2) to create a beneficial regulatory environment for the MNE; and (3) to set the rules of the game by influencing the business environment in which its industry or its specific company is required to operate. The main approaches reported by the interviewees as to how MNEs participate are: (1) the MNE directly lobbies domestic government officials, principally the United States Trade Representative office; (2) a business, trade or industry association lobbies domestic government officials on the MNE's behalf; and (3) the MNE lobbies Congress.

Structure of international cooperation in trade, investment and environment

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

Essays on the political economy of trade policy and economic *development

This dissertation studies the political economy of trade policy in a developing country, namely Turkey, under different economic and political regimes. The research analyzes the effects of these different regimes on the import structure, the trade policy and the industrialization process in Turkey and derives implications for aggregate welfare. ^ In the second chapter, the effects of trade liberalization policies on import demand are examined. Using disaggregated industry-level data, import demand elasticities for various sectors have been computed, analyzed under different economic regimes, and compared with those of developed countries. The results are statistically significant and reliable, and conform to the predictions of economic theory. Estimation of these elasticities is also a necessary ingredient for the third chapter of the dissertation. ^ The third chapter examines the predictions of the state-of-the-art “Protection For Sale” model of Grossman and Helpman (1994). Employing advanced econometric methods and a unique data set, strong support is found for the fundamental predictions of the model in the context of Turkey. Specifically, the government is found to attach a much higher weight to social welfare than to political contributions. This weight is higher under the democratic regime than under the dictatorship, a result potentially of interest to all researchers in the area of political economy. ^ The fourth chapter looks at the effects of industry concentration and import price shocks on protection, promotion and the choice of policy instruments in Turkey. In this context, it examines and finds support for the predictions of some well-known models in the literature. ^