Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approximate VB-MO schemes for excitation gaps in Hubbard models

The excitation gaps in the singlet and triplet manifolds for finite Hubbard models in one, two and three dimensions have been obtained using different approximate configuration interaction (CI) schemes, as a function of the correlation strength, by using valence bond (VB) functions constructed over the molecular orbital (MO) basis. These are compared with numerically exact results and it is found that the scheme in which all particle hole excitations below a given threshold are included is the method of choice. The excitation energies are well reproduced, in trend as well as magnitude, particularly when the threshold equals the bandwidth of the corresponding noninteracting system.

Discriminative learning of Bayesian networks via factorized conditional log-likelihood

We propose an efficient and parameter-free scoring criterion, the factorized conditional log-likelihood (ˆfCLL), for learning Bayesian network classifiers. The proposed score is an approximation of the conditional log-likelihood criterion. The approximation is devised in order to guarantee decomposability over the network structure, as well as efficient estimation of the optimal parameters, achieving the same time and space complexity as the traditional log-likelihood scoring criterion. The resulting criterion has an information-theoretic interpretation based on interaction information, which exhibits its discriminative nature. To evaluate the performance of the proposed criterion, we present an empirical comparison with state-of-the-art classifiers. Results on a large suite of benchmark data sets from the UCI repository show that ˆfCLL-trained classifiers achieve at least as good accuracy as the best compared classifiers, using significantly less computational resources.

Algorithms for Exact Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks are compact, flexible, and interpretable representations of a joint distribution. When the network structure is unknown but there are observational data at hand, one can try to learn the network structure. This is called structure discovery. This thesis contributes to two areas of structure discovery in Bayesian networks: space--time tradeoffs and learning ancestor relations. The fastest exact algorithms for structure discovery in Bayesian networks are based on dynamic programming and use excessive amounts of space. Motivated by the space usage, several schemes for trading space against time are presented. These schemes are presented in a general setting for a class of computational problems called permutation problems; structure discovery in Bayesian networks is seen as a challenging variant of the permutation problems. The main contribution in the area of the space--time tradeoffs is the partial order approach, in which the standard dynamic programming algorithm is extended to run over partial orders. In particular, a certain family of partial orders called parallel bucket orders is considered. A partial order scheme that provably yields an optimal space--time tradeoff within parallel bucket orders is presented. Also practical issues concerning parallel bucket orders are discussed. Learning ancestor relations, that is, directed paths between nodes, is motivated by the need for robust summaries of the network structures when there are unobserved nodes at work. Ancestor relations are nonmodular features and hence learning them is more difficult than modular features. A dynamic programming algorithm is presented for computing posterior probabilities of ancestor relations exactly. Empirical tests suggest that ancestor relations can be learned from observational data almost as accurately as arcs even in the presence of unobserved nodes.

Computation of restoration of ligand response in the random kinetics of a prostate cancer cell signaling pathway

Mutation and/or dysfunction of signaling proteins in the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signal transduction pathway are frequently observed in various kinds of human cancer. Consistent with this fact, in the present study, we experimentally observe that the epidermal growth factor (EGF) induced activation profile of MAP kinase signaling is not straightforward dose-dependent in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. To find out what parameters and reactions in the pathway are involved in this departure from the normal dose-dependency, a model-based pathway analysis is performed. The pathway is mathematically modeled with 28 rate equations yielding those many ordinary differential equations (ODE) with kinetic rate constants that have been reported to take random values in the existing literature. This has led to us treating the ODE model of the pathways kinetics as a random differential equations (RDE) system in which the parameters are random variables. We show that our RDE model captures the uncertainty in the kinetic rate constants as seen in the behavior of the experimental data and more importantly, upon simulation, exhibits the abnormal EGF dose-dependency of the activation profile of MAP kinase signaling in PC3 prostate cancer cells. The most likely set of values of the kinetic rate constants obtained from fitting the RDE model into the experimental data is then used in a direct transcription based dynamic optimization method for computing the changes needed in these kinetic rate constant values for the restoration of the normal EGF dose response. The last computation identifies the parameters, i.e., the kinetic rate constants in the RDE model, that are the most sensitive to the change in the EGF dose response behavior in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. The reactions in which these most sensitive parameters participate emerge as candidate drug targets on the signaling pathway. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decoupled three-dimensional finite element computation of thermoelastic damping using Zener's approximation

We consider three dimensional finite element computations of thermoelastic damping ratios of arbitrary bodies using Zener's approach. In our small-damping formulation, unlike existing fully coupled formulations, the calculation is split into three smaller parts. Of these, the first sub-calculation involves routine undamped modal analysis using ANSYS. The second sub-calculation takes the mode shape, and solves on the same mesh a periodic heat conduction problem. Finally, the damping coefficient is a volume integral, evaluated elementwise. In the only other decoupled three dimensional computation of thermoelastic damping reported in the literature, the heat conduction problem is solved much less efficiently, using a modal expansion. We provide numerical examples using some beam-like geometries, for which Zener's and similar formulas are valid. Among these we examine tapered beams, including the limiting case of a sharp tip. The latter's higher-mode damping ratios dramatically exceed those of a comparable uniform beam.

On Computation of Minimum Distance of Linear Block Codes Above 1/2 Rate Coding

The minimum distance of linear block codes is one of the important parameter that indicates the error performance of the code. When the code rate is less than 1/2, efficient algorithms are available for finding minimum distance using the concept of information sets. When the code rate is greater than 1/2, only one information set is available and efficiency suffers. In this paper, we investigate and propose a novel algorithm to find the minimum distance of linear block codes with the code rate greater than 1/2. We propose to reverse the roles of information set and parity set to get virtually another information set to improve the efficiency. This method is 67.7 times faster than the minimum distance algorithm implemented in MAGMA Computational Algebra System for a (80, 45) linear block code.

Bayesian Decentralized Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio Networks

This paper considers the problem of spectrum sensing, i.e., the detection of whether or not a primary user is transmitting data by a cognitive radio. The Bayesian framework is adopted, with the performance measure being the probability of detection error. A decentralized setup, where N sensors use M observations each to arrive at individual decisions that are combined at a fusion center to form the overall decision is considered. The unknown fading channel between the primary sensor and the cognitive radios makes the individual decision rule computationally complex, hence, a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT)-based approach is adopted. Analysis of the probabilities of false alarm and miss detection of the proposed method reveals that the error exponent with respect to M is zero. Also, the fusion of N individual decisions offers a diversity advantage, similar to diversity reception in communication systems, and a tight bound on the error exponent is presented. Through an analysis in the low power regime, the number of observations needed as a function of received power, to achieve a given probability of error is determined. Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the analysis.

Bayesian Learning for Joint Sparse OFDM Channel Estimation and Data Detection

The impulse response of a typical wireless multipath channel can be modeled as a tapped delay line filter whose non-zero components are sparse relative to the channel delay spread. In this paper, a novel method of estimating such sparse multipath fading channels for OFDM systems is explored. In particular, Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) techniques are applied to jointly estimate the sparse channel and its second order statistics, and a new Bayesian Cramer-Rao bound is derived for the SBL algorithm. Further, in the context of OFDM channel estimation, an enhancement to the SBL algorithm is proposed, which uses an Expectation Maximization (EM) framework to jointly estimate the sparse channel, unknown data symbols and the second order statistics of the channel. The EM-SBL algorithm is able to recover the support as well as the channel taps more efficiently, and/or using fewer pilot symbols, than the SBL algorithm. To further improve the performance of the EM-SBL, a threshold-based pruning of the estimated second order statistics that are input to the algorithm is proposed, and its mean square error and symbol error rate performance is illustrated through Monte-Carlo simulations. Thus, the algorithms proposed in this paper are capable of obtaining efficient sparse channel estimates even in the presence of a small number of pilots.

Distributed computation of fixed points of infinity-nonexpansive maps

The distributed implementation of an algorithm for computing fixed points of an infinity-nonexpansive map is shown to converge to the set of fixed points under very general conditions.

Fast computation of Legendre and Zernike moments

This paper presents recursive algorithms for fast computation of Legendre and Zernike moments of a grey-level image intensity distribution. For a binary image, a contour integration method is developed for the evaluation of Legendre moments using only the boundary information. A method for recursive calculation of Zernike polynomial coefficients is also given. A square-to-circular image transformation scheme is introduced to minimize the computation involved in Zernike moment functions. The recursive formulae can also be used in inverse moment transforms to reconstruct the original image from moments. The mathematical framework of the algorithms is given in detail, and illustrated with binary and grey-level images.

The approximate parametrization of the curve of intersection of implicit surfaces

A clear definition of an approximate parametrization of the curve of intersection of (n-1) implicit surfaces in Rn is given. It is justified that marching methods yield such an approximation.

A current error space vector based hysteresis controller with constant switching frequency and simple online boundary computation for VSI fed IM drive

This paper proposes a simple current error space vector based hysteresis controller for two-level inverter fed Induction Motor (IM) drives. This proposed hysteresis controller retains all advantages of conventional current error space vector based hysteresis controllers like fast dynamic response, simple to implement, adjacent voltage vector switching etc. The additional advantage of this proposed hysteresis controller is that it gives a phase voltage frequency spectrum exactly similar to that of a constant switching frequency space vector pulse width modulated (SVPWM) inverter. In this proposed hysteresis controller the boundary is computed online using estimated stator voltages along alpha and beta axes thus completely eliminating look up tables used for obtaining parabolic hysteresis boundary proposed in. The estimation of stator voltage is carried out using current errors along alpha and beta axes and steady state model of induction motor. The proposed scheme is simple and capable of taking inverter upto six step mode operation, if demanded by drive system. The proposed hysteresis controller based inverter fed drive scheme is simulated extensively using SIMULINK toolbox of MATLAB for steady state and transient performance. The experimental verification for steady state performance of the proposed scheme is carried out on a 3.7kW IM.

Constant pressure laminar, transitional and turbulent flows - An approximate unified treatment

A nondimensional number that is constant in two-dimensional, incompressible and constant pressure laminar and fully turbulent boundary, layer flows has been proposed. An extension of this to constant pressure transitional flow is discussed.