Estimation of statistical cure from cancer using population-based data

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Production of whey protein-based aggregates under ohmic heating

Formation of whey protein isolate protein aggregates under the influence of moderate electric fields upon ohmic heating (OH) has been monitored through evaluation of molecular protein unfolding, loss of its solubility, and aggregation. To shed more light on the microstructure of the protein aggregates produced by OH, samples were assayed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Results show that during early steps of an OH thermal treatment, aggregation of whey proteins can be reduced with a concomitant reduction of the heating chargeby reducing the come-up time (CUT) needed to reach a target temperatureand increase of the electric field applied (from 6 to 12 V cm1). Exposure of reactive free thiol groups involved in molecular unfolding of -lactoglobulin (-lg) can be reduced from 10 to 20 %, when a CUT of 10 s is combined with an electric field of 12 V cm1. Kinetic and multivariate analysis evidenced that the presence of an electric field during heating contributes to a change in the amplitude of aggregation, as well as in the shape of the produced aggregates. TEM discloses the appearance of small fibrillar aggregates upon the influence of OH, which have recognized potential in the functionalization of food protein networks. This study demonstrated that OH technology can be used to tailor denaturation and aggregation behavior of whey proteins due to the presence of a constant electric field together with the ability to provide a very fast heating, thus overcoming heat transfer limitations that naturally occur during conventional thermal treatments.

A multi–physics approach applied to masonry structures with non–hydraulic lime mortars

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil (área de especialização em Engenharia de Estruturas).

Body Mass Index: A Scientific Evidence-Based Inquiry

OBJECTVE: To objectively and critically assess body mass index and to propose alternatives for relating body weight and height that are evidence-based and that eliminate or reduce the limitations of the body mass index. METHODS: To analyze the relations involving weight and height, we used 2 databases as follows: 1) children and adolescents from Brazil, the United States, and Switzerland; and 2) 538 university students. We performed mathematical simulations with height data ranging from 115 to 190 cm and weight data ranging from 25 to 105 kg. We selected 3 methods to analyze the relation of weight and height as follows: body mass index - weight (kg)/height (m²); reciprocal of the ponderal index - height (cm)/weight1/3 (kg); and ectomorphy. Using the normal range from 20 to 25 kg/m² for the body mass index in the reference height of 170 cm, we identified the corresponding ranges of 41 to 44 cm/kg1/3 for the reciprocal of the ponderal index, and of 1.45 to 3.60 for ectomorphy. RESULTS: The mathematical simulations showed a strong association among the 3 methods with an absolute concordance to a height of 170 cm, but with a tendency towards discrepancy in the normal ranges, which had already been observed for the heights of 165 and 175 cm. This made the direct convertibility between the indices unfeasible. The reciprocal of the ponderal index and ectomorphy with their cut points comprised a larger age range in children and adolescents and a wider and more central range in the university students, both for the reported (current) and desired weights. CONCLUSION: The reciprocal of the ponderal index and ectomorphy are stronger and are more mathematically logical than body mass index; in addition, they may be applied with the same cut points for normal from the age of 5 ½ years on.

Gender-Based Differences in Cardiac Remodeling and ILK Expression after Myocardial Infarction

Background: Gender can influence post-infarction cardiac remodeling. Objective: To evaluate whether gender influences left ventricular (LV) remodeling and integrin-linked kinase (ILK) after myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: Female and male Wistar rats were assigned to one of three groups: sham, moderate MI (size: 20-39% of LV area), and large MI (size: ≥40% of LV area). MI was induced by coronary occlusion, and echocardiographic analysis was performed after six weeks to evaluate MI size as well as LV morphology and function. Real-time RT-PCR and Western blot were used to quantify ILK in the myocardium. Results: MI size was similar between genders. MI resulted in systolic dysfunction and enlargement of end-diastolic as well as end-systolic dimension of LV as a function of necrotic area size in both genders. Female rats with large MI showed a lower diastolic and systolic dilatation than the respective male rats; however, LV dysfunction was similar between genders. Gene and protein levels of ILK were increased in female rats with moderate and large infarctions, but only male rats with large infarctions showed an altered ILK mRNA level. A negative linear correlation was evident between LV dimensions and ILK expression in female rats with large MI. Conclusions: Post-MI ILK expression is altered in a gender-specific manner, and higher ILK levels found in females may be sufficient to improve LV geometry but not LV function.

Likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care

We review recent likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care. A semi-nonparametric model along the lines of Cameron and Johansson's Poisson polynomial model, but using a negative binomial baseline model, is introduced. We apply these models, as well a semiparametric Poisson, hurdle semiparametric Poisson, and finite mixtures of negative binomial models to six measures of health care usage taken from the Medical Expenditure Panel survey. We conclude that most of the models lead to statistically similar results, both in terms of information criteria and conditional and unconditional prediction. This suggests that applied researchers may not need to be overly concerned with the choice of which of these models they use to analyze data on health care demand.

Human capital in export-based internationalisation. "Managerial determinants and their influence upon the export behaviour of the firm: four case-studies of catalan exporting SMEs"

Export activities are a major source of economic growth and are considered important both at the national level and for individual businesses. Moreover, in the case of SMEs, they gain particular relevance, exporting being the most common foreign market entry mode for these firms. The decision maker’s role in the export activity is crucial, particularly in the case of SMEs. However, the extant literature on internationalization is characterized by a lack of consensus among scholars as to what constitutes the managerial factor in determining exporting. Therefore, this study focuses on the following issue: Which are the decision maker’s characteristics and perceptions that may influence the export behaviour of Catalan SMEs? To address this question a multiple case study method is applied across four Catalan exporting SMEs. The methodology chosen for analysing the empirical data is relying on the proposition testing approach while the investigation is conducted including both within and cross-case analysis. The findings show that high educational level, language skills, high risk tolerance, innovativeness as well as strongly perceived export stimuli as compared to low and easy to overcome export barriers positively influence the export involvement and development of SMEs. The study provides further insights into the research topic by jointly studying managerial characteristics and perceptions. Additionally, the majority of research on exporting topics has been carried out in the USA, so there is a clear need of investigation in the field in other countries, moreover in Spain where the exporting activities have not been as widely studied.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

A New Large-DNA-Fragment Delivery System Based on Integrase Activity from an Integrative and Conjugative Element.

During the past few decades, numerous plasmid vectors have been developed for cloning, gene expression analysis, and genetic engineering. Cloning procedures typically rely on PCR amplification, DNA fragment restriction digestion, recovery, and ligation, but increasingly, procedures are being developed to assemble large synthetic DNAs. In this study, we developed a new gene delivery system using the integrase activity of an integrative and conjugative element (ICE). The advantage of the integrase-based delivery is that it can stably introduce a large DNA fragment (at least 75 kb) into one or more specific sites (the gene for glycine-accepting tRNA) on a target chromosome. Integrase recombination activity in Escherichia coli is kept low by using a synthetic hybrid promoter, which, however, is unleashed in the final target host, forcing the integration of the construct. Upon integration, the system is again silenced. Two variants with different genetic features were produced, one in the form of a cloning vector in E. coli and the other as a mini-transposable element by which large DNA constructs assembled in E. coli can be tagged with the integrase gene. We confirmed that the system could successfully introduce cosmid and bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) DNAs from E. coli into the chromosome of Pseudomonas putida in a site-specific manner. The integrase delivery system works in concert with existing vector systems and could thus be a powerful tool for synthetic constructions of new metabolic pathways in a variety of host bacteria.

A musculoskeletal shoulder model based on pseudo-inverse and null-space optimization.

The goal of the present work was assess the feasibility of using a pseudo-inverse and null-space optimization approach in the modeling of the shoulder biomechanics. The method was applied to a simplified musculoskeletal shoulder model. The mechanical system consisted in the arm, and the external forces were the arm weight, 6 scapulo-humeral muscles and the reaction at the glenohumeral joint, which was considered as a spherical joint. The muscle wrapping was considered around the humeral head assumed spherical. The dynamical equations were solved in a Lagrangian approach. The mathematical redundancy of the mechanical system was solved in two steps: a pseudo-inverse optimization to minimize the square of the muscle stress and a null-space optimization to restrict the muscle force to physiological limits. Several movements were simulated. The mathematical and numerical aspects of the constrained redundancy problem were efficiently solved by the proposed method. The prediction of muscle moment arms was consistent with cadaveric measurements and the joint reaction force was consistent with in vivo measurements. This preliminary work demonstrated that the developed algorithm has a great potential for more complex musculoskeletal modeling of the shoulder joint. In particular it could be further applied to a non-spherical joint model, allowing for the natural translation of the humeral head in the glenoid fossa.

COLOX: a new blood-based test for colorectal cancer screening

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are insufficient due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures, like colonoscopy.Available non-invasive screening tests have unfortunately low sensitivity and specificity performances.Therefore, there is a large unmet need calling for a cost-effective, reliable and non-invasive test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions AIMS & Methods: The objective is to develop a screening test able to detect early CRCs and adenomas.This test is based on a nucleic acids multi-gene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs).A colonoscopy-controlled feasibility study was conducted on 179 subjects.The first 92 subjects was used as training set to generate a statistical significant signature.Colonoscopy revealed 21 subjects with CRC,30 with adenoma bigger than 1 cm and 41 with no neoplastic or inflammatory lesions.The second group of 48 subjects (controls, CRC and polyps) was used as a test set and will be kept blinded for the entire data analysis.To determine the organ and disease specificity 38 subjects were used:24 with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD),14 with other cancers than CRC (OC).Blood samples were taken from each patient the day of the colonoscopy and PBMCs were purified. Total RNA was extracted following standard procedures.Multiplex RT-qPCR was applied on 92 different candidate biomarkers.Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on these candidates and among them 60 biomarkers with significant p-values (<0.01) were selected.These biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions as cellular movement,cell signaling and interaction,tissue and cellular development,cancer and cell growth and proliferation.Two distinct biomarker signatures are used to separate patients without lesion from those with cancer or with adenoma, named COLOX CRC and COLOX POL respectively.COLOX performances were validated using random resampling method, bootstrap. RESULTS: COLOX CRC and POL tests successfully separate patients without lesions from those with CRC (Se 67%,Sp 93%,AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma bigger than 1cm (Se 63%,Sp 83%,AUC 0.77),respectively. 6/24 patients in the IBD group and 1/14 patients in the OC group have a positive COLOX CRC CONCLUSION: The two COLOX tests demonstrated a high sensitivity and specificity to detect the presence of CRCs and adenomas bigger than 1 cm.A prospective, multicenter, pivotal study is underway in order to confirm these promising results in a larger cohort.

Ghosts in contemporary African diasporic literature : re-visioning history, memory and identity

Starting from the observation that ghosts are strikingly recurrent and prominent figures in late-twentieth African diasporic literature, this dissertation proposes to account for this presence by exploring its various functions. It argues that, beyond the poetic function the ghost performs as metaphor, it also does cultural, theoretical and political work that is significant to the African diaspora in its dealings with issues of history, memory and identity. Toni Morrison's Beloved (1987) serves as a guide for introducing the many forms, qualities and significations of the ghost, which are then explored and analyzed in four chapters that look at Fred D'Aguiar's Feeding the Ghosts (1998), Gloria Naylor's Mama Day (1988), Paule Marshall's Praisesong for the Widow (1983) and a selection of novels, short stories and poetry by Michelle Cliff. Moving thematically through these texts, the discussion shifts from history through memory to identity as it examines how the ghost trope allows the writers to revisit sites of trauma; revise historical narratives that are constituted and perpetuated by exclusions and invisibilities; creatively and critically repossess a past marked by violence, dislocation and alienation and reclaim the diasporic culture it contributed to shaping; destabilize and deconstruct the hegemonic, normative categories and boundaries that delimit race or sexuality and envision other, less limited and limiting definitions of identity. These diverse and interrelated concerns are identified and theorized as participating in a project of "re-vision," a critical project that constitutes an epistemological as much as a political gesture. The author-based structure allows for a detailed analysis of the texts and highlights the distinctive shapes the ghost takes and the particular concerns it serves to address in each writer's literary and political project. However, using the ghost as a guide into these texts, taken collectively, also throws into relief new connections between them and sheds light on the complex ways in which the interplay of history, memory and identity positions them as products of and contributions to an African diasporic (literary) culture. If it insists on the cultural specificity of African diasporic ghosts, tracing its origins to African cultures and spiritualities, the argument also follows gothic studies' common view that ghosts in literary and cultural productions-like other related figures of the living dead-respond to particular conditions and anxieties. Considering the historical and political context in which the texts under study were produced, the dissertation makes connections between the ghosts in them and African diasporic people's disillusionment with the broken promises of the civil rights movement in the United States and of postcolonial independence in the Caribbean. It reads the texts' theoretical concerns and narrative qualities alongside the contestation of traditional historiography by black and postcolonial studies as well as the broader challenge to conventional notions such as truth, reality, meaning, power or identity by poststructuralism, postcolonialism or queer theory. Drawing on these various theoretical approaches and critical tools to elucidate the ghost's deconstructive power for African diasporic writers' concerns, this work ultimately offers a contribution to "speciality studies," which is currently emerging as a new field of scholarship in cultural theory.

Mass spectrometry for the evaluation of cardiovascular diseases based on proteomics and lipidomics.

The identification and quantification of proteins and lipids is of major importance for the diagnosis, prognosis and understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved in disease development. Owing to its selectivity and sensitivity, mass spectrometry has become a key technique in analytical platforms for proteomic and lipidomic investigations. Using this technique, many strategies have been developed based on unbiased or targeted approaches to highlight or monitor molecules of interest from biomatrices. Although these approaches have largely been employed in cancer research, this type of investigation has been met by a growing interest in the field of cardiovascular disorders, potentially leading to the discovery of novel biomarkers and the development of new therapies. In this paper, we will review the different mass spectrometry-based proteomic and lipidomic strategies applied in cardiovascular diseases, especially atherosclerosis. Particular attention will be given to recent developments and the role of bioinformatics in data treatment. This review will be of broad interest to the medical community by providing a tutorial of how mass spectrometric strategies can support clinical trials.

Pharmacokinetic (PK)-based dosage individualization of imatinib: evaluation of efficiency and clinical usefulness

Background: Retrospective analyses suggest that personalized PK-based dosage might be useful for imatinib, as treatment response correlates with trough concentrations (Cmin) in cancer patients. Our objectives were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations and to confirm its efficiency before evaluating the clinical usefulness of systematic PK-based dosage in chronic myeloid leukemia patients. Methods and Results: A Bayesian method was validated for the prediction of individual Cmin on the basis of a single random observation, and was applied in a prospective multicenter randomized controlled clinical trial. 28 out of 56 patients were enrolled in the systematic dosage individualization arm and had 44 follow-up visits (their clinical follow-up is ongoing). PK-dose-adjustments were proposed in 39% having predicted Cmin significantly away from the target (1000 ng/ml). Recommendations were taken up by physicians in 57%, patients were considered non-compliant in 27%. Median Cmin at study inclusion was 754 ng/ml and differed significantly from the target (p=0.02, Wilcoxon test). On follow-up, Cmin was 984 ng/ml (p=0.82) in the compliant group. CV decreased from 46% to 27% (p=0.02, F-test). Conclusion: PK-based (Bayesian) dosage adjustment is able to bring individual drug exposure closer to a given therapeutic target. Its influence on therapeutic response remains to be evaluated.