The patent expiry as a major inflection point in a branded Rx drug's life and strategies to counter generic competition - exemplified at Pfizer's blockbuster drug Lipitor in the USA

A large number of expensive, but highly profitable branded prescription drugs will go off-patent in the USA between 2011 and 2015. Their revenues are crucial to fund the immense costs associated with the development of an innovative drug. The rising cost pressure on pharmaceutical stakeholders has increased the demand for more affordable medications, as provided by the branded drug's generic counterpart. Yet, research based incumbents are moving beyond the traditional late lifecycle strategies and deploy more aggressive tactics in order to protect their brands, as seen with Pfizer's Lipitor!. It is doubtful, whether these efforts will help the blockbuster business model to resist current market conditions.

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

SMEs engaging at the bottom of the pyramid: Exploring drivers of business strategies

This research paper investigates how the market conditions at the base of the pyramid (BOP) influences South African small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to take certain business decisions in the townships and rural areas. It takes a qualitative approach to explore how SMEs with social objectives develops mitigating strategies to successfully engage with and in poor communities. The research suggests that prevailing BOP strategies are lacking certain aspects to successfully realize them on the ground. It advices firms to take a more practical hands-on approach to identify a sustainable business model by testing, experimenting, learning and adjusting, eventually being eligible for up-scaling.

The quest for growth in the German organic food retail market: Historical trends, current strategies, and future outlook

This paper aims to provide strategies for the organic supermarket chain “Alnatura” to shape the demand and its market share of the organic food & beverage (F&B) market in Germany within the next five years. Through the historic evolution and the current market assessment of Germany, compared to a benchmark country (US), as well as prospective trends in Germany, reasons and opportunities for market growth are evaluated. In addition, an industry attractiveness, competitor and company analysis is executed. Based on those findings and a conducted survey, suggestions to adjust Alnatura´s current business strategies are deduced and finally examined on its risk and feasibility.

Escalation of conflict in FMCG industry: A negotiation case

This work project develops a case-study to be used in Negotiation courses, both in Masters programs and in executive education workshops. The case-study is based on a real-life negotiating situation in Belgium between Unilever, the second largest Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company in the world, and Delhaize, one of the most important Belgium’s retailers, with a significant international presence. We also present an analysis of the negotiation based on relevant literature. First, a brief literature review is presented about how to deal with multiple-issue negotiations and how to deal with processes of escalation of conflict. These concepts are then applied to the analysis of the case-study.

Molecular identification of the agent of Q fever – Coxiella burnetii – in domestic animals in State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Introduction Over the last recent years, the number of Q fever cases have has increased throughout the world. An epidemiological investigation was performed in the area in which the first molecular documentation of Q fever in Brazil was previously reported. Methods Indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and PCR of Coxiella burnetii targeting the htpAB gene were performed in samples from 14 dogs (blood); 1 cat (blood); 10 goats (blood, milk, vaginal swab and anal swab); 3 sheep (blood); and 2 horses (blood). Results Two dogs, two sheep and five goats were seroreactive. DNA was amplified from 6 milk and 2 blood samples from goats and from dogs, respectively. The sequence of the amplicons exhibited 99% sequence similarity with the homologous sequence of the htpAB gene of C. burnetii RSA 331 (GenBank - CP000890). Conclusions The results confirm C. burnetii infection in animals in Rio de Janeiro and reinforce the need for the surveillance of Q fever in Brazil.

Biological colonization on majolica glazed tiles: biodeterioration, bioreceptivity and mitigation strategies

The impact of microbial activity on the deterioration of cultural heritage is a well-recognized global problem. Glazed wall tiles constitute an important part of the worldwide cultural heritage. When exposed outdoors, biological colonization and consequently biodeterioration may occur. Few studies have dealt with this issue, as shown in the literature review on biodiversity, biodeterioration and bioreceptivity of architectural ceramic materials. Due to the lack of knowledge on the biodeteriogens affecting these assets, the characterization of microbial communities growing on Portuguese majolica glazed tiles, from Pena National Palace (Sintra, Portugal) and another from Casa da Pesca (Oeiras, Portugal) was carried out by culture and molecular biology techniques. Microbial communities were composed of microalgae, cyanobacteria, bacteria and fungi, including a new fungal species (Devriesia imbrexigena) described for the first time. Laboratory-based colonization experiments were performed to assess the biodeterioration patterns and bioreceptivity of glazed wall tiles produced in laboratory. Microorganisms previously identified on glazed tiles were inoculated on pristine and artificially aged tile models and incubated under laboratory conditions for 12 months. Phototrophic microorganisms were able to grow into glaze fissures and the tested fungus was able to form oxalates over the glaze. The bioreceptivity of artificially aged tiles was higher for phototrophic microorganisms than pristine tile models. A preliminary approach on mitigation strategies based on in situ application of commercial biocides and titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles on glazed tiles demonstrated that commercial biocides did not provide long term protection. In contrast, TiO2 treatment caused biofilm detachment. In addition, the use of TiO2 thin films on glazed wall tiles as a protective coating to prevent biological colonization was analysed under laboratorial conditions. Finally, conservation notes on tiles exposed to biological colonization were presented.

An agent-based simulator to estimate domestic energy use

Throughout recent years, there has been an increase in the population size, as well as a fast economic growth, which has led to an increase of the energy demand that comes mainly from fossil fuels. In order to reduce the ecological footprint, governments have implemented sustainable measures and it is expected that by 2035 the energy produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar would be responsible for one-third of the energy produced globally. However, since the energy produced from renewable sources is governed by the availability of the respective primary energy source there is often a mismatch between production and demand, which could be solved by adding flexibility on the demand side through demand response (DR). DR programs influence the end-user electricity usage by changing its cost along the time. Under this scenario the user needs to estimate the energy demand and on-site production in advance to plan its energy demand according to the energy price. This work focuses on the development of an agent-based electrical simulator, capable of: (a) estimating the energy demand and on-site generation with a 1-min time resolution for a 24-h period, (b) calculating the energy price for a given scenario, (c) making suggestions on how to maximize the usage of renewable energy produced on-site and to lower the electricity costs by rescheduling the use of certain appliances. The results show that this simulator allows reducing the energy bill by 11% and almost doubling the use of renewable energy produced on-site.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

New strategies for active finding of leprosy cases in the Amazonian region

AbstractINTRODUCTION: The use of the Self-Image Form (SIF) expands the identification of active leprosy cases to neighbors of index cases.METHODS: The SIF was used to screen two groups: case (neighbors of index cases of leprosy) and control (individuals residing next to houses without leprosy) group. A specialist investigated suspected leprosy cases for disease confirmation.RESULTS: New cases of leprosy were diagnosed in the case group (n = 7, 8.6%), but not the control group.CONCLUSIONS: The new surveillance strategy is inexpensive, efficient, and feasible within a primary health strategy. Future studies can help improve the use of the SIF.

Cryptococcosis in Atlántico, Colombia: an approximation of the prevalence of this mycosis and the distribution of the etiological agent in the environment

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:Cryptococcosis is an invasive disease acquired by inhalation of infectious propagules from the environment. Currently, compulsory notification of the spread of this disease is not required in Colombia. However, reporting of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome cases to the National Surveillance System has suggested that there is a growing population at risk of contracting cryptococcosis. Few studies have described the occurrence of cryptococcosis in Colombia. Therefore, in this study, we examined the pathology of this disease in Atlántico, Colombia and determined the distributions of Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in the environment.METHODS:Clinical samples/isolates were gathered from cases of cryptococcosis previously diagnosed at health institutions in Atlántico, and surveys were completed by clinicians. The environmental study considered 32 sampling points and three tree species, i.e., Quickstick ( Gliricidia sepium ), Almond ( Terminalia catappa ), and Pink trumpet ( Tabebuia rosea ). Environmental and clinical samples/isolates were analyzed for phenotypic and genotypic confirmation.RESULTS:From 1997-2014, 41 cases of cryptococcosis were reported. The mean patient age was 40.5 years (range: 18-63 years); 76% were men, and 78% were HIV positive. Isolation was possible in 38 cases ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI in 37 cases and C. gattii , molecular type VGI in one case). In 2012-2014, 2,068 environmental samples were analyzed with a positivity of 0.4% ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI) in Almond and Pink trumpet trees.CONCLUSIONS:Cryptococcus neoformans , molecular type VNI had a higher prevalence than C. gattii and was associated with human exposure and the pathogenesis of cryptococcosis in this geographical region.

Development of process control strategies exploiting knowledge from systems biology: application to MDCK suspension cells

Madine Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cell lines have been extensively evaluated for their potential as host cells for influenza vaccine production. Recent studies allowed the cultivation of these cells in a fully defined medium and in suspension. However, reaching high cell densities in animal cell cultures still remains a challenge. To address this shortcoming, a combined methodology allied with knowledge from systems biology was reported to study the impact of the cell environment on the flux distribution. An optimization of the medium composition was proposed for both a batch and a continuous system in order to reach higher cell densities. To obtain insight into the metabolic activity of these cells, a detailed metabolic model previously developed by Wahl A. et. al was used. The experimental data of four cultivations of MDCK suspension cells, grown under different conditions and used in this work came from the Max Planck Institute, Magdeburg, Germany. Classical metabolic flux analysis (MFA) was used to estimate the intracellular flux distribution of each cultivation and then combined with partial least squares (PLS) method to establish a link between the estimated metabolic state and the cell environment. The validation of the MFA model was made and its consistency checked. The resulted PLS model explained almost 70% of the variance present in the flux distribution. The medium optimization for the continuous system and for the batch system resulted in higher biomass growth rates than the ones obtained experimentally, 0.034 h-1 and 0.030 h-1, respectively, thus reducing in almost 10 hours the duplication time. Additionally, the optimal medium obtained for the continuous system almost did not consider pyruvate. Overall the proposed methodology seems to be effective and both proposed medium optimizations seem to be promising to reach high cell densities.

Effectiveness of silver nitrate compared to talc slurry as pleural sclerosing agent in rabbits. Influence of concomitant intrapleural lidocaine

The ideal agent for producing pleurodesis has not been identified. Talc, the most commonly used, poses several problems. Another possibility is silver nitrate, which was widely used in the past. PURPOSE: To determine the influence of the intrapleural instillation of lidocaine in producing a pleurodesis with silver nitrate, to define the effect of lidocaine in the maturation of the collagen fibers, and to confirm that the pleurodesis after silver nitrate is stronger than after talc. METHODS: We studied three groups of 8 rabbits. Two groups received 0.5% silver nitrate; in one we had previously injected 0.5 ml of 2% lidocaine. The third group received 400 mg/kg talc (2 ml). The animals were sacrificed 28 days after the injection, and the pleural spaces were assessed grossly for evidence of pleurodesis and microscopically for evidence of inflammation and fibrosis. The total amount of pleural collagen and the distribution of thick and thin collagen fibers were quantified. Collagen was identified using picrosirius red stain. RESULTS: In the two groups that received silver nitrate (without lidocaine: 3.5 + 03 and with lidocaine: 3.2 + 0.3), the macroscopic pleurodesis (scale 0 -- 4) was significantly (p = 0.001) better than that resulting from talc (1.6 + 0.2). The mean degree of pleural fibrosis induced by silver nitrate (3.5 + 0.2) was significantly (p = 0.004) higher than that induced by talc (1.9 + 0.1). The previous instillation of lidocaine resulted in a tendency for decreased amounts of fibrosis (3.1 + 0.4). The mean amount (10³mm²) of pleural collagen was significantly (p = 0.009) greater in the rabbits that received silver nitrate (116.9 + 22.7) than in those that received talc (10.7 + 3.4). The injection of lidocaine slightly reduced the collagen (80.1 + 30.3). The distribution of collagen fibers did not differ among the groups. CONCLUSION: This rabbit model clearly confirms that intrapleural silver nitrate is more effective than talc for producing pleurodesis. The previous intrapleural instillation of lidocaine results in a decreasing trend in the amount of collagen, but does not change the effectiveness of the pleural fusion or modify the process of collagen maturation.

An agent based architecture to support monitoring in plug and produce manufacturing systems using knowledge extraction

In recent years a set of production paradigms were proposed in order to capacitate manufacturers to meet the new market requirements, such as the shift in demand for highly customized products resulting in a shorter product life cycle, rather than the traditional mass production standardized consumables. These new paradigms advocate solutions capable of facing these requirements, empowering manufacturing systems with a high capacity to adapt along with elevated flexibility and robustness in order to deal with disturbances, like unexpected orders or malfunctions. Evolvable Production Systems propose a solution based on the usage of modularity and self-organization with a fine granularity level, supporting pluggability and in this way allowing companies to add and/or remove components during execution without any extra re-programming effort. However, current monitoring software was not designed to fully support these characteristics, being commonly based on centralized SCADA systems, incapable of re-adapting during execution to the unexpected plugging/unplugging of devices nor changes in the entire system’s topology. Considering these aspects, the work developed for this thesis encompasses a fully distributed agent-based architecture, capable of performing knowledge extraction at different levels of abstraction without sacrificing the capacity to add and/or remove monitoring entities, responsible for data extraction and analysis, during runtime.

Carry and trend-following strategies

Recent research has shown that carry and trend strategies when combined lead to significant risk-adjusted returns that can be very attractive to investors, at a low cost with small and positive skewness. This study proposes to combine both carry and trend-following, considering a data set of ten years (09/2005-09/2015), within a portfolio composed by three major asset classes: currencies, commodities and equity indices. Following a futures-based methodology, the obtained results show that, indeed, the strategy results inevitably in higher returns and greater sharpe ratios for every asset class in study. This outcome results from the fact that trend proved to provide a significant hedge to the downside risk that carry is exposed to.