An example of integration between en economic and an hydrologic model in the framework of water resource management problems

Growing scarcity, increasing demand and bad management of water resources are causing weighty competition for water and consequently managers are facing more and more pressure in an attempt to satisfy users? requirement. In many regions agriculture is one of the most important users at river basin scale since it concentrates high volumes of water consumption during relatively short periods (irrigation season), with a significant economic, social and environmental impact. The interdisciplinary characteristics of related water resources problems require, as established in the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, an integrated and participative approach to water management and assigns an essential role to economic analysis as a decision support tool. For this reason, a methodology is developed to analyse the economic and environmental implications of water resource management under different scenarios, with a focus on the agricultural sector. This research integrates both economic and hydrologic components in modelling, defining scenarios of water resource management with the goal of preventing critical situations, such as droughts. The model follows the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach, an innovative methodology successfully used for agricultural policy analysis in the last decade and also applied in several analyses regarding water use in agriculture. This approach has, among others, the very important capability of perfectly calibrating the baseline scenario using a very limited database. However one important disadvantage is its limited capacity to simulate activities non-observed during the reference period but which could be adopted if the scenario changed. To overcome this problem the classical methodology is extended in order to simulate a more realistic farmers? response to new agricultural policies or modified water availability. In this way an economic model has been developed to reproduce the farmers? behaviour within two irrigation districts in the Tiber High Valley. This economic model is then integrated with SIMBAT, an hydrologic model developed for the Tiber basin which allows to simulate the balance between the water volumes available at the Montedoglio dam and the water volumes required by the various irrigation users.

A fatigue damage model for seismic response of RC structures

Numerous damage models have been developed in order to analyze seismic behavior. Among the different possibilities existing in the literature, it is very clear that models developed along the lines of continuum damage mechanics are more consistent with the definition of damage as a phenomenon with mechanical consequences because they include explicitly the coupling between damage and mechanical behavior. On the other hand, for seismic processes, phenomena such as low cycle fatigue may have a pronounced effect on the overall behavior of the frames and, therefore, its consideration turns out to be very important. However, most of existing models evaluate the damage only as a function of the maximum amplitude of cyclic deformation without considering the number of cycles. In this paper, a generalization of the simplified model proposed by Cipollina et al. [Cipollina A, López-Hinojosa A, Flórez-López J. Comput Struct 1995;54:1113–26] is made in order to include the low cycle fatigue. Such a model employs in its formulation irreversible thermodynamics and internal state variable theory.

Dynamic stiffness analysis of bridge abutments

Strong motion records obtained in instrumented short-span bridges show the importance of the abutments in the dynamic response of the structure. Existing models study the pier foundation influence but not the abutment performance. This work proposes two and three dimensional boundary element models in the frequency domain and studies the dimensionless dynamic stiffness of standard bridge abutments.

Boundary element approach to the dynamic stiffness functions of circular foundations

A boundary element approach for time harmonic axisymmetric problems using the complete space point load fundamental solution is presented. The fundamental solution is integrated numerically along the azimuthal co-ordinate of each axisymmetric element. To increase the accuracy of the numerical integration a simple co-ordinate transformation is proposed. The approach is applied to the computation of the dynamic stiffness functions of rigid circular foundations on layered viscoelastic soils. Three different sites are considered: a uniform half-space, a soil layer on a half-space, and a soil consisting of four horizontal layers and a compliant half-space. The numerical results obtained by the proposed approach for surface circular foundations are very close to corresponding published results obtained by different procedures.

An integral model for natural regeneration of Pinus pinea L. in the Northern Plateau (Spain) = Modelo integral de regeneración natural para Pinus pinea L. en la Meseta Norte (España)

Natural regeneration is an ecological key-process that makes plant persistence possible and, consequently, it constitutes an essential element of sustainable forest management. In this respect, natural regeneration in even-aged stands of Pinus pinea L. located in the Spanish Northern Plateau has not always been successfully achieved despite over a century of pine nut-based management. As a result, natural regeneration has recently become a major concern for forest managers when we are living a moment of rationalization of investment in silviculture. The present dissertation is addressed to provide answers to forest managers on this topic through the development of an integral regeneration multistage model for P. pinea stands in the region. From this model, recommendations for natural regeneration-based silviculture can be derived under present and future climate scenarios. Also, the model structure makes it possible to detect the likely bottlenecks affecting the process. The integral model consists of five submodels corresponding to each of the subprocesses linking the stages involved in natural regeneration (seed production, seed dispersal, seed germination, seed predation and seedling survival). The outputs of the submodels represent the transitional probabilities between these stages as a function of climatic and stand variables, which in turn are representative of the ecological factors driving regeneration. At subprocess level, the findings of this dissertation should be interpreted as follows. The scheduling of the shelterwood system currently conducted over low density stands leads to situations of dispersal limitation since the initial stages of the regeneration period. Concerning predation, predator activity appears to be only limited by the occurrence of severe summer droughts and masting events, the summer resulting in a favourable period for seed survival. Out of this time interval, predators were found to almost totally deplete seed crops. Given that P. pinea dissemination occurs in summer (i.e. the safe period against predation), the likelihood of a seed to not be destroyed is conditional to germination occurrence prior to the intensification of predator activity. However, the optimal conditions for germination seldom take place, restraining emergence to few days during the fall. Thus, the window to reach the seedling stage is narrow. In addition, the seedling survival submodel predicts extremely high seedling mortality rates and therefore only some individuals from large cohorts will be able to persist. These facts, along with the strong climate-mediated masting habit exhibited by P. pinea, reveal that viii the overall probability of establishment is low. Given this background, current management –low final stand densities resulting from intense thinning and strict felling schedules– conditions the occurrence of enough favourable events to achieve natural regeneration during the current rotation time. Stochastic simulation and optimisation computed through the integral model confirm this circumstance, suggesting that more flexible and progressive regeneration fellings should be conducted. From an ecological standpoint, these results inform a reproductive strategy leading to uneven-aged stand structures, in full accordance with the medium shade-tolerant behaviour of the species. As a final remark, stochastic simulations performed under a climate-change scenario show that regeneration in the species will not be strongly hampered in the future. This resilient behaviour highlights the fundamental ecological role played by P. pinea in demanding areas where other tree species fail to persist.

The interurban DRAG-Spain model: the main factors of influence on road accidents in Spain

This paper presents the results of applying DRAG methodology to the identification of the main factors of influence on the number of injury and fatal accidents occurring on Spain’s interurban network. Nineteen independent variables have been included in the model grouped together under ten categories: exposure, infrastructure, weather, drivers, economic variables, vehicle stock, surveillance, speed and legislative measures. Highly interesting conclusions can be reached from the results on the basis of the different effects of a single variable on each of the accident types according to severity. The greatest influence revealed by the results is exposure, which together with inexperienced drivers, speed and an ageing vehicle stock, have a negative effect, while the increased surveillance on roads, the improvement in the technological features of vehicles and the proportion of high capacity networks have a positive effect, since the results obtained show a significant drop in accidents.

Agent-based model for the effect of curing temperature on cement hydration

The agent-based model presented here, comprises an algorithm that computes the degree of hydration, the water consumption and the layer thickness of C-S-H gel as functions of time for different temperatures and different w/c ratios. The results are in agreement with reported experimental studies, demonstrating the applicability of the model. As the available experimental results regarding elevated curing temperature are scarce, the model could be recalibrated in the future. Combining the agent-based computational model with TGA analysis, a semiempirical method is achieved to be used for better understanding the microstructure development in ordinary cement pastes and to predict the influence of temperature on the hydration process.

A damage model for seismic retrofitting of structures

Numerous damage models have been developed in order to analyse the seismic behavior. Among the different possibilities existing in the literature, it is very clear that models developed along the lines of Continuum Damage Mechanics are more consistent with the definition of damage like a phenomenon with mechanical consequences as they include explicitly the coupling between damage and mechanical behavior. On the other hand, for seismic processes, phenomena such as low cycle fatigue may have a pronounced effect on the overall behavior of the frames and, therefore, its consideration turns out to be very important. However, many of existing models evaluate the damage only as a function of the maximum amplitude of cyclic deformation without considering the number of cycles. In this paper, a generalization of the simplified model proposed by Flórez is made in order to include the low cycle fatigue. Such model employs in its formulation irreversible thermodynamics and internal state variable theory.

Dynamic & Cyclic behaviour of ballast in the long term as determined in Cedex's track box

The 6 cylinder servo-hydraulic loading system of CEDEX's track box (250 kN, 50 Hz) has been recently implemented with a new piezoelectric loading system (±20 kN, 300 Hz) allowing the incorporation of low amplitude high frequency dynamic load time histories to the high amplitude low frequency quasi-static load time histories used so far in the CEDEX's track box to assess the inelastic long term behavior of ballast under mixed traffic in conventional and high- speed lines. This presentation will discuss the results obtained in the first long-duration test performed at CEDEX's track box using simultaneously both loading systems, to simulate the pass-by of 6000 freight vehicles (1M of 225 kN axle loads) travelling at a speed of 120 km/h over a line with vertical irregularities corresponding to a medium quality lin3e level. The superstructure of the track tested at full scale consisted of E 60 rails, stiff rail pads (mayor que 450 kN/mm), B90.2 sleepers with USP 0.10 N/mm and a 0.35 m thick ballast layer of ADIF first class. A shear wave velocity of 250 m/s can be assumed for the different layers of the track sub-base. The ballast long-term settlements will be compared with those obtained in a previous long-duration quasi- static test performed in the same track, for the RIVAS [EU co-funded] project, in which no dynamic loads where considered. Also, the results provided by a high diameter cyclic triaxial cell with ballast tested in full size will be commented. Finally, the progress made at CEDEX's Geotechnical Laboratory to reproduce numerically the long term behavior of ballast will be discussed.

Application of a building cost estimation model to the appraisal of the churches damaged by earthquakes in Lorca (Spain)

The objective of this paper is the development of a building cost estimation model whose purpose is to quickly and precisely evaluate rebuilding costs for historic heritage buildings affected by catastrophic events. Specifically, this study will be applied to the monumental buildings owned by the Catholic Church that were affected by two earthquakes on May 11, 2011 in the town of Lorca. To estimate the initial total replacement cost new, calculation model will be applied which, on the one hand, will use two-dimensional metric exterior parameters and, on the other, three-dimensional interior cubic parameters. Based on the total of the analyzed buildings, and considering damage caused by the seismic event, the final reconstruction cost for the building units ruined by the earthquakes can be estimated. The proposed calculation model can also be applied to other emergency scenarios and situations for the quick estimation of construction costs necessary for rebuilding historic heritage buildings which have been affected by catastrophic events that deteriorate or ruin their structural or constructive configuration.

Static and Dynamic Experimental Analysis of the Galloping Stability of Porous H-Section Beams

The phenomenon of self-induced vibrations of prismatic beams in a cross-flow has been studied for decades, but it is still of great interest due to their important effects in many different industrial applications. This paper presents the experimental study developed on a prismatic beam with H-section.The aim of this analysis is to add some additional insight into the behaviour of the flow around this type of bodies, in order to reduce galloping and even to avoid it. The influence of some relevant geometrical parameters that define the H-section on the translational galloping behaviour of these beams has been analysed. Wind loads coefficients have been measured through static wind tunnel tests and the Den Hartog criterion applied to elucidate the influence of geometrical parameters on the galloping properties of the bodies under consideration.These results have been completed with surface pressure distribution measurements and, besides, dynamic tests have been also performed to verify the static criterion. Finally, the morphology of the flow past the tested bodies has been visualised by using smoke visualization techniques. Since the rectangular section beam is a limiting case of the H-section configuration, the results here obtained are compared with the ones published in the literature concerning rectangular configurations; the agreement is satisfactory.

Numerical model for the study of hydrodynamics on bays and estuaries

A nonlinear implicit finite element model for the solution of two-dimensional (2-D) shallow water equations, based on a Galerkin formulation of the 2-D estuaries hydrodynamic equations, has been developed. Spatial discretization has been achieved by the use of isoparametric, Lagrangian elements. To obtain the different element matrices, Simpson numerical integration has been applied. For time integration of the model, several schemes in finite differences have been used: the Cranck-Nicholson iterative method supplies a superior accuracy and allows us to work with the greatest time step Δt; however, central differences time integration produces a greater velocity of calculation. The model has been tested with different examples to check its accuracy and advantages in relation to computation and handling of matrices. Finally, an application to the Bay of Santander is also presented.

Influence of different organoclays on the curing, morphology, and dynamic mechanical properties of an epoxy adhesive

The thermal, mechanical, and adhesive properties of nanoclay-modified adhesives were investigated. Two organically modified montmorillonites: Cloisite 93A (C93A) and Nanomer I.30E (I.30E) were used as reinforcement of an epoxy adhesive. C93A and I.30E are modified with tertiary and primary alkyl ammonium cations, respectively. The aim was to study the influence of the organoclays on the curing, and on the mechanical and adhesive properties of the nanocomposites. A specific goal was to compare their behavior with that of Cloisite30B/epoxy and Cloisite15A/ epoxy nanocomposites that we have previously studied. Both C30B and C15A are modified with quaternary alkyl ammonium cations. Differential scanning calorimetry results showed that the clays accelerate the curing reaction, an effect that is related to the chemical structure of the ammonium cations. The three Cloisite/nanocomposites showed intercalated clay structures,the interlayer distance was independent of the clay content. The I.30E/epoxy nanocomposites presented exfoliated structure due to the catalytic effect of the organic modifier. Clay-epoxy nanocompo-sites showed lower glass transition temperature (Tg) and higher values of storage modulus than neat epoxy thermoset, with no significant differences between exfoliated or intercalated nanocom-posites. The shear strength of aluminum joints using clay/epoxy adhesives was lower than with the neat epoxy adhesive. The wáter aging was less damaging for joints with I.30E/epoxy adhesive.