Breast imaging reporting and data system (BI-RADS™): como tem sido utilizado?

O Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS™), do American College of hRadiology, foi concebido para padronizar o laudo mamográfico e reduzir os fatores de confusão na descrição e interpretação das imagens, além de facilitar o monitoramento do resultado final. OBJETIVO: Identificar a maneira como vem sendo utilizado o BI-RADS™, gerando informações que possam auxiliar o Colégio Brasileiro de Radiologia a desenvolver estratégias para aperfeiçoar o seu uso. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Os dados foram coletados na cidade de Goiânia, GO. Foram solicitados os exames de mamografia anteriores a todas as mulheres que se dirigiram ao serviço para realização de mamografia entre janeiro/2003 e junho/2003. Foram incluídos na análise exames anteriores, realizados entre 1/7/2001 e 30/6/2003. RESULTADOS: Foram coletados 104 laudos anteriores, emitidos por 40 radiologistas de 33 diferentes serviços. Dos 104 laudos, 77% (n = 80) utilizavam o BI-RADS™. Destes, apenas 15% (n = 12) eram concisos, nenhum utilizava a estrutura e organização recomendadas pelo sistema, 98,75% (n = 79) não respeitavam o léxico e 65% (n = 51) não faziam recomendação de conduta. CONCLUSÃO: O BI-RADS™, apesar de bastante utilizado, não foi reconhecido como sistema para padronização dos laudos. Foi usado quase exclusivamente como forma de classificação final dos exames.

Three Essays on International Trade and the Labor Market

The thesis is made of three independent chapters interested in the impact of globalization on workers in industrialized countries. The dissertation is especially focused on identifying the causal impact of international trade on workers' mobility, wages, and employment with both a short- and medium-term perspective. The first paper explores the relation between intra-industry trade (IIT) expansion and associated worker flows, taking the latter as an indicator of labor-market adjustment costs. Being the first study to combine theoretical simulations and a novel identification strategy, we find that both theoretical and empirical analyses are consistent with the "smooth adjustment hypothesis", according to which IIT expansion is less disruptive than inter-industry trade expansion. The study therefore lends support to the use of IIT indices as first-pass proxies for the adjustment effects of trade expansion. The second chapter contrasts the impact of increased import competition coming from China and the European Union (EU) on workers in the United Kingdom over a 15-year period. The most salient findings show that increased imports from China had significantly negative effects on workers' earnings, wages and employment. In contrast, larger imports from the EU are associated with positive worker-level outcomes, which is largely explained by the fact that increased imports from the EU were mostly offset by increased same-industry exports to the EU. Besides, we find that increased imports from China exert additional pressure on workers through spillovers to employment and wages in downstream industries. Finally, the last chapter is focused on the impact of exposure to trade and real exchange rate shocks on wages for Swiss manufacturing workers. A particular attention is made to consistently estimate the causal effect in using a two-step gravity-type identification strategy. The study shows that the impact of trade and exchange rate movements is concentrated among high-skilled workers almost exclusively.

Task Trade and its determinants in Spain: a national and regional analysis

Globalisation and technological advances have made possible to offshore specific productive tasks (that do not require physical proximity to the actual location of the work unit) to foreign countries where these are usually performed at lower costs. We analyse the effect of task trade (i.e. task offshorability) on Spanish regional and national employment levels correlating a newly built index of task-delocalisation index to key variables such as the region’s wealth, the worker’s age and level of education, the importance of the service sector and the technological level of the economic activities undertaken in that particular geographical area. We conclude that approximately 25 per cent of Spanish occupations are potentially affected by task trade / offshoring and that this is likely to benefit Spanish economy (and the performance of specific regions, categories of workers and sectors) being Spain a potential recipient of tasks offshored from abroad. Also we obtain that Spain’s trade in tasks correlates strongly with the above variables, presenting significant regional differences.

Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator : why firms do not increase prices?

Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methods are being increasingly used to analyze the impact of mergers on pricing and other market equilibrium outcomes. Using evidence from an exogenous merger between two retail gasoline companies in a specific market in Spain, this paper shows how concentration did not lead to a price increase. In fact, the conjectural variation model concludes that the existence of a collusive agreement before and after the merger accounts for this result, rather than the existence of efficient gains. This result may explain empirical evidence reported in the literature according to which mergers between firms do not have significant effects on prices.

Vertical relations and local competition : an empirical approach

The analysis of vertical industry relations forms an essential element in the field of industrial organization. This paper tests hypotheses derived from transaction cost theory and the principal-agent problem in Chile’s petrol market. It shows that local competition plays an important role in the choice of a disintegrated vertical structure, and that low levels of service investment have the same effect. Conversely, the number of own-brand outlets and a high level of investment in services reduce the probability of disintegration. The paper demonstrates that vertical disintegration has a null effect on wholesale petrol prices and a positive effect on retail petrol prices of between 1.6 and 7 per cent, depending on fuel type.

IEA Bioenergy Task 40 “Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing supply and demand” Country report of Finland 2008

This study considered the current situation of biofuels markets in Finland. The fact that industry consumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production and a high share of solid biomass fuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. Wood is the most important source of bioenergy in Finland, representing 21% of the total energy consumption in 2006. Almost 80% of the wood-based energy is recovered from industrial by-products and residues. Finland has commitment itself to maintaining its greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level, at the highest, during the period 2008–2012. The energy and climate policy carried out in recent years has been based on the National Energy and Climate introduced in 2005. The Finnish energy policy aims to achieve the target, and a variety of measures are taken to promote the use of renewable energy sources and especially wood fuels. In 2007, the government started to prepare a new long-term (up to the year 2050) climate and energy strategy that will meet EU’s new targets for the reduction of green house gas emissions and the promotion of renewable energy sources. The new strategy will be introduced during 2008. The international biofuels trade has a substantial importance for the utilisation of bioenergy in Finland. In 2006, the total international trading of solid and liquid biofuels was approximately 64 PJ of which import was 61 PJ. Most of the import is indirect and takes place within the forest industry’s raw wood imports. In 2006, as much as 24% of wood energy was based on foreignorigin wood. Wood pellets and tall oil form the majority of export streams of biofuels. The indirect import of wood fuels increased almost 10% in 2004–2006, while the direct trade of solid and liquid biofuels has been almost constant.

Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to test the intertemporal risk-return relation for 13 European stock markets. We identify country specific, euro area, and global macro-finance factors to determine the conditional risk and return. Empirically, the risk- return trade-off is generally negative. However, a Markov switching model documents that there is time-variation in this trade-off that is linked to the state of the economy. Keywords: Risk-return trade-off; Dynamic factor model; Macro-finance predictors; European stock markets; Markov switching model JEL Classifications: C22; G11; G12; G17

Analyzing Carbon Trade Permits in Optimization Framework

The threats caused by global warming motivate different stake holders to deal with and control them. This Master's thesis focuses on analyzing carbon trade permits in optimization framework. The studied model determines optimal emission and uncertainty levels which minimize the total cost. Research questions are formulated and answered by using different optimization tools. The model is developed and calibrated by using available consistent data in the area of carbon emission technology and control. Data and some basic modeling assumptions were extracted from reports and existing literatures. The data collected from the countries in the Kyoto treaty are used to estimate the cost functions. Theory and methods of constrained optimization are briefly presented. A two-level optimization problem (individual and between the parties) is analyzed by using several optimization methods. The combined cost optimization between the parties leads into multivariate model and calls for advanced techniques. Lagrangian, Sequential Quadratic Programming and Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm are referred to. The role of inherent measurement uncertainty in the monitoring of emissions is discussed. We briefly investigate an approach where emission uncertainty would be described in stochastic framework. MATLAB software has been used to provide visualizations including the relationship between decision variables and objective function values. Interpretations in the context of carbon trading were briefly presented. Suggestions for future work are given in stochastic modeling, emission trading and coupled analysis of energy prices and carbon permits.

Merchandising Strategies and Retail Performance for Seasonal Fashion Products

This study presents mathematical methods for evaluation of retail performance with special regard to product sourcing strategies. Forecast accuracy, process lead time, offshore / local sourcing mix and up front / replenishment buying mix are defined as critical success factors in connection with sourcing seasonal products with a fashion content. As success measures, this research focuses on service level, lost sales, product substitute percentage, gross margin, gross margin return on inventory and mark down rate. The accuracy of demand forecast is found to be a fundamental success factor. Forecast accuracy depends on lead time. Lead times are traditionally long and buying decisions are made seven to eight months prior to the start of the selling season. Forecast errors cause stockouts and lost sales. Some of the products bought for the selling season will not be sold and have to be marked down and sold at clearance, causing loss of gross margin. Gross margin percentage is not the best tool for evaluating sourcing decisions and in the context of this study gross margin return on inventory, which combines profitability and assets management, is used. The findings of this research suggest that there are more profitable ways of sourcing products than buying them from low cost offshore sources. Mixing up front and inseason replenishment deliveries, especially when point of sale information is used for improving forecast accuracy, results in better retail performance. Quick Response and Vendor Managed Inventory strategies yield better results than traditional up front buying from offshore even if local purchase prices are higher. Increasing the number of selling seasons, slight over buying for the season in order to

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15

Kansainvälisen kaupan arvoketjujen sääntely. Yhteiskuntavastuun ja ennakoivan oikeuden tarkastelua

Tausta Kansainvälinen kauppa on globaalia toimintaa, jossa tavaroiden ja palveluiden tuottaminen ja kuluttaminen on jakautunut maapallon eri osiin. Arvoketjukäsitteellä korostetaan eri toimijoiden panosta lopputuotteen valmistamiseksi, sekä yhteisten tavoitteiden merkitystä. Toimijaverkostot ovat moni-ilmeisiä ja monimutkaisia. Globaalin kaupan toinen tärkeä piirre on yhteiskuntavastuu, joka tulee esiin niin yksityisen kuin julkisen sektorin toiminnassa. Sen toteuttaminen asettaa suuria haasteita sekä yksityisen että julkisen sektorin toimijoille. Kansallisvaltion mahdollisuudet hallita globaaleja kaupan arvoketjuja julkisella sääntelyllä on osoittautunut ongelmalliseksi. Tutkimuskysymykset Tämä tutkimus on oikeustieteen alaan kuuluva sääntelytutkimuksen artikkeliväitöskirja, joka on tutkimusotteeltaan poikkitieteellinen. Tutkimus pyrkii kaikkiaan valaisemaan yksityisen sääntelyn käyttömahdollisuuksia ja rajoituksia elinkeinotoiminnassa. Keskeisessä roolissa oikeustieteen rinnalla on liiketaloustieteen tutkimus. Tutkimuskysymykset ovat ensinnäkin, mistä nousee kansainvälistä kauppaa koskeva yksityisen sääntelyn tarve ja toiseksi, mikä motivoi yrityksiä yksityiseen sääntelyyn tai itsesääntelyyn. Lopuksi pohditaan, miten lainsäätäjän tulisi suhtautua yksityiseen sääntelyyn. Tutkimuskysymyksiin vastaamalla syvennetään ja täsmennetään oikeustieteen piirissä tehtävää tutkimusta ennakoivasta oikeudesta. Menetelmät ja aineistot Tutkimus on oikeusvertaileva tutkimus, jossa pääpaino on yksityisessä sääntelyssä. Tutkimusaineisto nojautuu eri tieteenaloilla tehtyihin sekä kvalitatiivisiin että kvantitatiivisiin empiirisiin sääntelyjärjestelmien käyttöä ja toimivuutta koskeviin tutkimuksiin sekä tutkijan tekemään 42:en, metsäsektorin, elintarvikealan, vaatetusalan sekä vähittäiskaupan piirissä käytössä olevan sääntelyjärjestelmän analyysiin. Johtopäätökset Yksityisen sääntelyn tarve nousee tarpeesta hallita globaaleja arvoketjuja kohti yhteisiä tavoitteita. Tulevan lainsäädännön uhan sijasta yrityksiä motivoi yksityiseen sääntelyyn kilpailuedun tavoitteluun liittyvät tekijät. Koska kilpailuetuun yhä yleisemmin sisältyy yhteiskuntavastuullisuus, ovat yritysten tavoitteet ja julkisen sektorin tavoitteet lähentyneet. Erilaisten kansalaisjärjestöjen rooli kasvaa koko ajan. Ne osallistuvat vahvasti niin yksityisen sääntelyn laadintaan kuin myös sääntöjen valvontaan. Yksityisen sääntelyn tavoitteet ovat aiemmin liittyneet ympäristönsuojelun painottamiseen ja elintarviketurvallisuuteen erityisesti metsäsektorilla ja elintarvikealalla, myöhemmin sosiaalisen vastuullisuuden parantaminen on myös tullut painokkaammin esiin. Kansainvälisen kaupan piirissä syntynyttä yksityisen sääntelyn ilmiötä kuvataan tässä ennakoiva oikeus –käsitteellä. Aiempi tutkimus rajoittui tarkastelemaan ilmiötä vain ennakoivana lähestymistapana oikeuteen. Tässä painopiste on sen sijaan ennakoivan lähestymistavan avulla aikaansaaduissa sääntelyn välineissä ja lopputuloksissa: mahdollistavassa, valtaistavassa, dynaamisessa ja käyttäjäystävällisessä oikeudessa, jonka avulla luodaan mahdollisuuksia, ennalta ehkäistään ja hallitaan riskejä eikä pelkästään ratkaista jo syntyneitä ongelmia. Käsitteen sisältöä avataan tutkimuksessa sekä sääntelyjärjestelmien sisällöllisen tarkastelun että prosessiin liittyvän tarkastelun avulla.