A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

In the bank or on the ground : an examination of financial reserves in Australian international aid organisations

This study contributes to the understanding of the contribution of financial reserves to sustaining nonprofit organisations. Recognising the limited recent Australian research in the area of nonprofit financial vulnerability, it specifically examines financial reserves held by signatories to the Code of Conduct of the Australian Council for International Development (ACFID) for the years 2006 to 2010. As this period includes the Global Financial Crisis, it presents a unique opportunity to observe the role of savings in a period of heightened financial threats to sustainability. The need for nonprofit entities to maintain reserves, while appearing intuitively evident, is neither unanimously accepted nor supported by established theoretic constructs. Some early frameworks attempt to explain the savings behaviour of nonprofit organisations and its role in organisational sustainability. Where researchers have considered the issue, its treatment has usually been either purely descriptive or alternatively, peripheral to a broader attempt to predict financial vulnerability. Given the importance of nonprofit entities to civil society, the sustainability of these organisations during times of economic contraction, such as the recent Global Financial Crisis, is a significant issue. Widespread failure of nonprofits, or even the perception of failure, will directly affect, not only those individuals who access their public goods and services, but would also have impacts on public confidence in both government and the sectors’ ability to manage and achieve their purpose. This study attempts to ‘shine a light’ on the paradox inherent in considering nonprofit savings. On the one hand, a public prevailing view is that nonprofit organisations should not hoard and indeed, should spend all of their funds on the direct achievement of their purposes. Against this, is the commonsense need for a financial buffer if only to allow for the day to day contingencies of pay rises and cost increases. At the entity level, the extent of reserves accumulated (or not) is an important consideration for Management Boards. The general public are also interested in knowing the level of funds held by nonprofits as a measure of both their commitment to purpose and as an indicator of their effectiveness. There is a need to communicate the level and prevalence of reserve holdings, balancing the prudent hedging of uncertainty against a sense of resource hoarding in the mind of donors. Finally, funders (especially governments) are interested in knowing the appropriate level of reserves to facilitate the ongoing sustainability of the sector. This is particularly so where organisations are involved in the provision of essential public goods and services. At a scholarly level, the study seeks to provide a rationale for this behaviour within the context of appropriate theory. At a practical level, the study seeks to give an indication of the drivers for savings, the actual levels of reserves held within the sector studied, as well as an indication as to whether the presence of reserves did mitigate the effects of financial turmoil during the Global Financial Crisis. The argument is not whether there is a need to ensure sustainability of nonprofits, but rather how it is to be done and whether the holding of reserves (net assets) is an essential element is achieving this. While the study offers no simple answers, it does appear that the organisations studied present as two groups, the ‘savers’ who build reserves and keep ‘money in the bank’ and ‘spender-delivers’ who put their resources ‘on the ground’. To progress an understanding of this dichotomy, the study suggests a need to move from its current approach to one which needs to more closely explore accounts based empirical donor attitude and nonprofit Management Board strategy.

A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Islamic project financing implementation for sustainable infrastructure development in Indonesia

Islamic financing in Indonesia infrastructure projects development has not been optimally implemented. Therefore this paper serves as a catalyst to explore alternative financial scheme such as Islamic financing for infrastructure development. The purpose of this paper is to explore the enablers and barriers in implementing Islamic project financing for public infrastructure development. The findings are then culminated into enablers and barriers in the implementation of Islamic project financing. The two main enablers are the readily availability of huge fund that can be used to support infrastructure projects; and the acceptability of the concept of shariah-compliant financing. On the other hand, the barriers include: high cost of funding; lack of financial institution capability; lack of government policy and regulation; insufficient government support and commitment; conflict between infrastructure and Islamic finance business practices; profit oriented mindset; lack of understanding of Islamic project financing knowledge in infrastructure; and insufficient project preparation.

Economic growth and inequality patterns in the presence of costly technology adoption and uncertainty

We develop a stochastic endogenous growth model to explain the diversity in growth and inequality patterns and the non-convergence of incomes in transitional economies where an underdeveloped financial sector imposes an implicit, fixed cost on the diversification of idiosyncratic risk. In the model endogenous growth occurs through physical and human capital deepening, with the latter being the more dominant element. We interpret the fixed cost as a ‘learning by doing’ cost for entrepreneurs who undertake risk in the absence of well developed financial markets and institutions that help diversify such risk. As such, this cost may be interpreted as the implicit returns foregone due to the lack of diversification opportunities that would otherwise have been available, had such institutions been present. The analytical and numerical results of the model suggest three growth outcomes depending on the productivity differences between the projects and the fixed cost associated with the more productive project. We label these outcomes as poverty trap, dual economy and balanced growth. Further analysis of these three outcomes highlights the existence of a diversity within diversity. Specifically, within the ‘poverty trap’ and ‘dual economy’ scenarios growth and inequality patterns differ, depending on the initial conditions. This additional diversity allows the model to capture a richer range of outcomes that are consistent with the empirical experience of several transitional economies.

The financial services cultural orientation matrix

With saturation within domestic marketplaces and increased growth opportunities overseas, many financial service providers are investing in foreign markets. However, cultural attitudes towards money can present market entry challenges to financial service providers. The industry would therefore benefit from a strategic model that helps to align financial marketing mixes with the cultural dimensions of a foreign market. The Financial Services Cultural Orientation (FSCO) Matrix has therefore been designed, with three cultural dimensions identified which influence preference for financial products; preference for cash, aversion to debt and savings orientation. Based on a combination of these dimensions and their relative strength within a culture, eight different consumer segments for financial products are identified, and marketing strategies for each consumer segment are then proposed. Three cultural clusters from the GLOBE Project House et al. (2002) are used to highlight possible geographic markets for each of these consumer segments. In particular, this paper focuses on GLOBE’s Confucian Asia, Southern Asia and Anglo cultural clusters, as these clusters represent the most well established financial markets in the world and the fastest growing financial markets for the future. The FSCO Matrix provides the financial services industry with an innovative and practical tool for addressing cross-cultural challenges and developing successful marketing strategies for entry into foreign markets.

Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics

Stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets. We estimate sudden and gradual changes in correlation between stocks, bonds and commodity futures returns driven by observable financial variables and time, using double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC–GARCH) models. Most correlations begin the 1990s near zero but closer integration emerges around the early 2000s and reaches peaks during the recent crisis. Diversification benefits to investors across equity, bond and stock markets were significantly reduced. Increases in VIX and financial traders’ short open interest raise futures returns volatility for many commodities. Higher VIX also increases commodity returns correlation with equity returns for about half the pairs, indicating closer integration.

Econometric fellows and Nobel Laureates in economics

An academic award is method by which peers offer recognition of intellectual efforts. In this paper we take a purely descriptive look at the relationship between becoming a Fellow of the Econometric Society and receiving the Nobel Prize in economics. We discover some interesting aspects: of all 69 Nobel Prize Laureates between 1969 and 2011, only 9 of them were not also Fellows. Moreover, the proportion of future novel winners among the Fellows has been quite high throughout time and a large share of researchers who became Fellows between the 1930s and 1950s became Nobel Laureates at a later stage. On average, researchers became Fellows relatively early in their career (14.9 years after their PhD) and those who were subsequently made Nobel Laureates became Fellows earlier than other researchers. Interestingly, Harvard and MIT have been the dominant PhD granting institutions to generate Fellows and Nobel Laureates in the past.

The Best interests duty in the future of financial advice reforms : striking a balance between certainty and flexibility

Presentation delivered to the Australian and New Zealand Consumer Law Roundtable held at the University of Melbourne Law School on Friday, 16 November 2012. The paper covers the background to the 'Future of Financial Advice' reforms and their context. In addition to this the scope of best interests duty is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the likely effectives of best interest duty as a consumer protection measure.

Submission on Financial Planning Association Consultation Paper

This report was submitted to the Financial Planning Association and is confined to the proposals in relation to compliance with the Best Interests duty (Part B) and the provision of Scaled Advice (Part C) in the FPA Consultation Paper, Modifications to the FPA Code of Professional Practice to incorporate FoFA, released in October 2012.

The financial life well-lived: psychological benefits of financial planning

As the financial planning industry undergoes a series of reforms aimed at increased professionalism and improved quality of advice, financial planner training in Australia and elsewhere has begun to acknowledge the importance of interdisciplinary knowledge bases in informing both curriculum design and professoinal practice (e.g. FPA2009). This paper underscores the importance of the process of financial planning by providing a conceptual analysis of the six step financial planning process using key mechanisms derived from theory and research in cognate disciplines such as psychology and well-being. The paper identifies how these mechanisms may operate to impact client well-being in the financial planning context. The conceptual mapping of th emechanisms to process elements of financial planning is a unique contribution to the financial planning literature and offers a further framework in the armamentarium of researchers interested in pursuing questions around the value of financial planning. The conceptual framework derived from the analysis also adds to the growing body of literature aimed at developing an integrated model of financial planning.

Why stagnant? behind the scenes in Indonesia’s reformed state asset management policies

This study seeks to answer the question of “why is policy innovation in Indonesia, in particular reformed state asset management laws and regulations, stagnant?” through an empirical and qualitative approach, identifying and exploring potential impeding influences to the full and equal implementation of said laws and regulations. The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management has emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide (Conway, 2006; Dow, Gillies, Nichols, & Polen, 2006; Kaganova, McKellar, & Peterson, 2006; McKellar, 2006b) for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Two main reasons propelled said policy innovation: a) world-wide common challenges in state asset management practices - such as incomplete information system, accountability, and governance adherence/conceptualisation (Kaganova, McKellar and Peterson 2006); and b) unfavourable state assets audit results in all regional governments across Indonesia. The latter reasoning is emphasised, as the Indonesian government admits to past neglect in ensuring efficiency and best practice in its state asset management practices. Prior to reform there was euphoria of building and developing state assets and public infrastructure to support government programs of the day. Although this euphoria resulted in high growth within Indonesia, there seems to be little attention paid to how state assets bought/built is managed. Up until 2003-2004 state asset management is considered to be minimal; inventory of assets is done manually, there is incomplete public sector accounting standards, and incomplete financial reporting standards (Hadiyanto 2009). During that time transparency, accountability, and maintenance state assets was not the main focus, be it by the government or the society itself (Hadiyanto 2009). Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management (Hadiyanto, 2009c). Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management (Hadiyanto, 2009a). The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, with a triangulated data collection method of document analysis (all relevant state asset management laws, regulations, policies, technical guidelines, and external audit reports), semi-structured interviews, and on-site observation. Empirical data of this study involved a sample of four Indonesian regional governments and 70 interviews, performed during January-July 2010. The analytical approach of this study is that of thematic analysis, in an effort to identify common influences and/or challenges to policy innovation within Indonesia. Based on the empirical data of this study specific impeding influences to state asset management reform is explored, answering the question why innovative policy implementation is stagnant. An in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform, and the attached interviewee’s opinions for each factor, suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in; as a means to explain innovative policy stagnancy. This study offers insights to Indonesian policy makers interested in ensuring the conceptualisation and full implementation of innovative policies, particularly, although not limited to, within the context of state asset management practices.

The effects of linguistic factors on student performance on economics multiple choice questions

This paper proposes a framework to analyse performance on multiple choice questions with the focus on linguistic factors. Item Response Theory (IRT) is deployed to estimate ability and question difficulty levels. A logistic regression model is used to detect Differential Item Functioning questions. Probit models testify relationships between performance and linguistic factors controlling the effects of question construction and students’ background. Empirical results have important implications. The lexical density of stems affects performance. The use of non-Economics specialised vocabulary has differing impacts on the performance of students with different language backgrounds. The IRT-based ability and difficulty help explain performance variations.

Private health insurance status and utilisation of dental services in Australia

This article focuses on the relationship between private insurance status and dental service utilisation in Australia using data between 1995 and 2001. This article employs joint maximum likelihood to estimate models of time since last dental visit treating private ancillary health insurance (PAHI) as endogenous. The sensitivity of results to the choice between two different but related types of instrumental variables is examined. We find robust evidence in both 1995 and 2001 that individuals with a PAHI policy make significantly more frequent dental consultations relative to those without such coverage. A comparison of the 1995 and 2001 results, however, suggests that there has been an increasing role of PAHI in terms of the frequency of dental consultations over time. This seems intuitive given the trends in the price of unsubsidised private dental consultations. In terms of policy, our results suggest that while government measures to increase private health insurance coverage in Australia has been successful to a significant degree, it may have come at some cost in terms of socio-economic inequality as the privately insured are provided much better access to care and financial protection.