Divisia indexes, money and welfare

We suggest the use of a particular Divisia index for measuring welfare losses due to interest rate wedges and in‡ation. Compared to the existing options in the literature: i) when the demands for the monetary assets are known, closed-form solutions for the welfare measures can be obtained at a relatively lower algebraic cost; ii) less demanding integrability conditions allow for the recovery of welfare measures from a larger class of demand systems and; iii) when the demand speci…cations are not known, using an index number entitles the researcher to rank di¤erent vectors of opportunity costs directly from market observations. We use two examples to illustrate the method.

Private or public? a taxonomy of optimal ownership and management regimes

We develop a theory of public versus private ownership based on value diversion by managers. Government is assumed to face stronger institutional constraints than has been assumed in previous literature. The model which emerges from these assumptions is fexible and has wide application. We provide amapping between the qualitative characteristics of an asset, its main use - including public goods characteristics, and spillovers toother assets values - and the optimal ownership and management regime. The model is applied to single and multiple related assets. We address questions such as; when is it optimal to have one of a pair ofr elated assets public and the other private; when is joint management desirable; and when should a public asset be managed by the owner of a related private asset? We show that while private ownership can be judged optimal in some cases solely on the basis of qualitative information, the optimality of any other ownership and management regimes relies on quantitative analysis. Our results reveal the situations in which policy makers will have difficulty in determining the opimal regime.

Measures of the welfare cost of inflation: a complete ordering

This paper presents three contributions to the literature on the welfare cost of ináation. First, it introduces a new sensible way of measuring this cost - that of a compensating variation in consumption or income, instead of the equivalent variation notion that has been extensively used in empirical and theoretical research during the past fiftt years. We Önd this new measure to be interestingly related to the proxy measure of the shopping-time welfare cost of ináation introduced by Simonsen and Cysne (2001). Secondly, it discusses for which money-demand functions this and the shopping-time measure can be evaluated in an economically meaningful way. And, last but not least, it completely orders a comprehensive set of measures of the welfare cost of ináation for these money-demand specification. All of our results are extended to an economy in which there are many types of monies present, and are illustrated with the log-log money-demand specification.

Sustentabilidade financeira dos regimes próprios de previdência social: uma análise dos RPPS do Estado do Maranhão

A partir da última década do século passado, ampliaram-se no Brasil profundas e polêmicas discussões que vêm ocorrendo em paralelo no mundo todo: a sustentabilidade do sistema de Previdência Social. Portanto, esta dissertação constitui-se numa análise das perspectivas de sustentabilidade dos Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS) que fazem parte do sistema previdenciário brasileiro. Situando o tema no contexto atual, marcado por profundas limitações econômicas e legais, tomou-se como objeto de análise o RPPS do Estado do Maranhão. Através da coleta de dados disponíveis na Internet e da aplicação de formulário de pesquisa de campo, sob a forma de questionário, buscou-se obter um diagnóstico da situação financeira e atuarial experimentada pelo citado RPPS. A partir do perfil traçado, que apontou situação deficitária, concluiu-se que a possibilidade de sustentabilidade do RPPS Estadual encontra-se comprometida e constitui-se em sério entrave ao alcance do equilíbrio das contas públicas do Estado. A situação constatada tende a se agravar, caso sejam mantidos os parâmetros legais, a forma de gestão e o cenário de crise econômica atualmente verificado

Volatilidade cambial e regimes de câmbio

Regimes de câmbio flutuante têm sido amplamente adotados desde 1973. De acordo com muitos estudos empíricos, esses regimes têm manifestado maiores volatilidades do que os regimes de câmbio fixo adotados após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Contudo, desde começo dos anos 1970, muitos países têm adotado diferentes tipos de regimes de câmbio flutuante, desde completamente livres a flutuantes administrados, assim como uma ampla variedade de regimes de câmbio rígido. O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar se a volatilidade cambial está estatisticamente associada a esses diferentes regimes de câmbio. Utilizando a classificação cambial de facto de Reinhart e Rogoff (2004), nossa pesquisa aponta que regimes de câmbio com algum tipo de rigidez cambial são menos voláteis que regimes de câmbio com flutuação livre (freely floating); além disso, aponta que regimes cambiais em períodos de instabilidade monetária são ainda mais voláteis. Verificou-se ainda, que crises cambiais são significativas e responsáveis por maior volatilidade cambial, enquanto outros tipos de crises não se mostram estatisticamente significantes. Um terceiro resultado importante é o de que a abertura comercial e a abertura financeira não apresentaram significância estatística.

The n-dimensional bailey-divisia measure as a general-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of inflation

This paper shows that in economies with several monies the Bailey-Divisia multidimensional consumers surplus formula may emerge as an exact general-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of in ation, provided that preferences are quasilinear.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

Governança global e a visão brasileira das organizações e regimes pós-2008

O primeiro capítulo trata do problema de pesquisa consubstanciado na pergunta: como a crise financeira mundial de 2008 atingiu o equilíbrio de poder global e quais foram os desdobramentos no sistema internacional, e a respectiva argumentação de objetivos, delimitação e relevância do estudo. O capítulo dois aborda a questão metodológica do ponto de vista dos métodos de abordagem e da coleta e tratamento das informações. O capítulo terceiro apresenta a complexidade da interação entre ordem internacional e governança global, termos difíceis de serem definidos, porém constantes nas agendas da diplomacia e política internacional. O capítulo quarto introduz o conceito de governança multinível para expressar a interação de diversos atores em diversas camadas abaixo e acima do Estado. O capítulo quinto trata das crises pré-2008, buscando verificar possíveis características comuns entre elas. O capítulo sexto trata da crise de 2008 e alargamento e prolongamento para a Europa, articulando variáveis econômicas e financeiras globais. O capítulo sete procura relacionar a política externa brasileira à arquitetura da governança global, aspirando uma participação mais ativa nos fóruns internacionais. No capítulo nono é apresentada a conclusão do estudo em termos de dilemas e obstáculos comportamentais e/ou estruturais e os campos que devem ser melhor investigados e aprofundados.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

A retração do welfare state na Suécia e Dinamarca

O presente trabalho tem como objeto o processo de reforma das políticas públicas de previdência social e saúde ocorridas na Suécia e Dinamarca, a partir dos anos de 1980. Buscou-se analisar se estas transformações se enquadram no que ficou conhecido na literatura como retração do welfare state. Para tanto, propôs-se um arcabouço metodológico capaz de captar os múltiplos aspectos desse fenômeno. Concluiu-se que apesar de incrementais, as mudanças ocorridas apontam na direção de um Estado de Bem Estar mais residual. Essa análise contrasta com o trabalho desenvolvido por Pierson (1994), que ressalta a dificuldade de se colocar em prática uma estratégia bem sucedida de desmanche do welfare state, devido ao viés político negativo dessa medida. Argumentou-se que esses países foram capazes de implementar mudanças impopulares por meio de estratégias distintas: enquanto na Suécia o consenso em torno das reformas permitiu aos partidos evitarem a punição eleitoral, na Dinamarca a alternativa foi a mudança fora da via institucional, no âmbito dos governos regionais e da burocracia, o que fragmentou a oposição e minimizou o efeito negativo destas mudanças.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

Global law in pieces fragmentation, regimes and pluralism

The idea that life undergoes a process of functional differentiation, and that, as a consequence, law becomes increasingly specialized – and maybe even transforms in its very nature – is now widespread. The specialized clusters of law or regulation are very often called regimes, in the international arena, international or transnational regimes. This paper deals, first, with three strong representations of international regimes and discusses some of their problems. It argues that, in order to make a good use of the category, it is necessary to keep in mind the differentiation between law and non-law in the wider context of governance. It then turns, firstly, to the notion of regimes as fragments of a unified and coherent public international law order and, secondly, as meeting points of regulations emerging from different legal orders as well as from other non-legal sources. Within public international law, regimes are seen as related to what is called the double fragmentation of that legal order. As clusters of regulation within a wider global regulatory order, regimes are put in relation to two types of legal or regulatory pluralism.

Insider trading, investment, and liquidity: a welfare analysis

We compare competitive equilibrium outcomes with and without trading by a privately infonned "monopolistic" insider, in a model with real investment portfolio choices ex ante, and noise trading generated by aggregate uncertainty regarding other agents' intertemporal consumption preferences. The welfare implications of insider trading for the ex ante expected utilities of outsiders are analyzed. The role of interim infonnation revelation due to insider trading, in improving the risk-sharing among outsiders with stochastic liquidity needs, is examined in detaiL

Bailey's measure of the welfare costs of infiation as a general-equilibrium measure

Lucas (2000) has ShO\nl t hat Baile,\"'s formula for t hc \\'elfare costs of inflatioIl caIl bc rcgardpd as an approximation to t hc gcneral-equilibriuIll IllCaSllH'S \\"hich emerge from thc Sidrauski anrl the shopping-time models, In this paper \\'c shm\' that Baile~"s mcaSllrc can bc cxactly obtairlf'd in tllf' Siclrauski geIleral-equilibri1lIn framp\\'ork under the assUIllption of quasilinpar prefpreIlC'cs, The rpslllt. based on ",heter or not \\'Palt h pffpcts are incorporatccl into t hp analysis, is also helpful in darif\'ing \\'hy Lucas' Illeasurp clerin'd from the Siclrauski model turns 01lt to be aIl upper bOllIlcl to Bailp~"s, T,,'o eXaInplcs arp used to illustratc t he main C'ondusions,