929 resultados para variance effective population size
Resumo:
Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion. These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.
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The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.
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In species with low levels of dispersal the chance of closely related individuals breeding may be a potential problem; sex-biased dispersal is a mechanism that may decrease the possibility of cosanguineous mating. Fragmentation of the habitat in which a species lives may affect mechanisms such as sex-biased dispersal, which may in turn exacerbate more direct effects of fragmentation such as decreasing population size that may lead to inbreeding depression. Relatedness statistics calculated using microsatellite DNA data showed that rainforest fragmentation has had an effect on the patterns of dispersal in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), a rainforest endemic of the Wet Tropics of north eastern Australia. A lower level of relatedness was found in fragments compared to continuous forest sites due to a significantly lower level of pairwise relatedness between males in rainforest fragments. The pattern of genetic relatedness between sexes indicates the presence of male-biased dispersal in this species, with a stronger pattern detected in populations in rainforest fragments. Male prickly forest skinks may have to move further in fragmented habitat in order to find mates or suitable habitat logs.
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The thelastomatoid fauna of two species of wood-burrowing cockroach (Blattodea, Blaberidae), Panesthia cribrata and Panesthia tryoni tryoni, from Lamington National Park, Australia, is described. The following eight new species and three new genera of thelastomatid are proposed: Bilobostoma exerovulva n. g., n. sp.; Cordonicola gibsoni n. sp.; Coronostoma australiae n. sp.; Desmicola ornata n. sp.; Hammerschmidtiella hochi n. sp.; Malaspinanema goateri n. g., n. sp.; Travassosinema jaidenae n. sp.; and Tsuganema cribratum n. g., n. sp. Additional data are given for Blattophila sphaerolaima and Leidynemella fusiformis. Of the 11 species reported, nine were found in P. cribrata and ten in P. tryoni tryoni. Such levels of thelastomatoid species richnessness in single host species are exceptional. Only the mole cricket, Gryllotalpa africana (23), and the domestic cockroach, Periplaneta americana (20), have higher reported richness. Three species, T jaidenae, C. australiae and D. ornata, were found either exclusively or significantly more prevalently in P tryoni tryoni than in R cribrata. Species of Travassosinema, Coronostoma and Desmicola have been found previously only in millipedes (Diplopoda), a fact that suggests that there is a greater degree of niche overlap between R tryoni tryoni and millipedes than for R cribrata.
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Sibly et at. (Reports, 22 July 2005, p. 607) recently estimated the relationship between population size and growth rate for 1780 time series of various species. I explain why some aspects of their analysis are questionable and, therefore, why their results and estimation procedure should be used with care.
Resumo:
To provide an estimate of kangaroo numbers for harvest management, a survey was designed for an area of 29500 km(2) encompassing the agricultural and grazing lands of the Braidwood, Cooma, Goulburn, Gundagai and Yass Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB) districts in south-east New South Wales. An aerial survey using a helicopter was considered more efficient than ground survey because of the size of the area, relatively high relief and dense tree cover, and the need for regular monitoring. Tree cover and landscape relief was used to stratify the five RLPB districts into areas of probable high, medium and low kangaroo density. Kangaroo density estimated from helicopter surveys conducted in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales was used to suggest densities and thereby allocate survey effort in each stratum. A survey comprising 735 km of transect line was conducted in winter 2003 with a target precision of 20%. The survey returned an estimate of 286600 32300 eastern grey kangaroos for the whole of the proposed south-east New South Wales kangaroo-management zone. In 2004, a trial harvest of slightly less than 15% of this estimate was taken. Success of the trial will be determined by the impact of harvesting on the population's dynamics, by landholder and industry participation, and by the capacity to monitor population size, harvest offtake and compliance with regulations.
Resumo:
We often need to estimate the size of wild populations to determine the appropriate management action, for example, to set a harvest quota. Monitoring is usually planned under the assumption that it must be carried out at fixed intervals in time, typically annually, before the harvest quota is set. However, monitoring can be very expensive, and we should weigh the cost of monitoring against the improvement that it makes in decision making. A less costly alternative to monitoring annually is to predict the population size using a population model and information from previous surveys. In this paper, the problem of monitoring frequency is posed within a decision-theory framework. We discover that a monitoring regime that varies according to the state of the system call outperform fixed-interval monitoring This idea is illustrated using data for a red kangaroo (Macropits rufus) population in South Australia. Whether or not one should monitor in a given year is dependent on the estimated population density in the previous year, the uncertainty in that population estimate, and past rainfall. We discover that monitoring is-important when a model-based prediction of population density is very uncertain. This may occur if monitoring has not taken place for several years, or if rainfall has been above average. Monitoring is also important when prior information suggests that the population is near a critical threshold in population abundance. However, monitoring is less important when the optimal management action would not be altered by new information.
Resumo:
Predator-induced morphological plasticity is a model system for investigating phenotypic plasticity in an ecological context. We investigated the genetic basis of the predator-induced plasticity in Rana lessonae by determining the pattern of genetic covariation of three morphological traits that were found to be induced in a predatory environment. Body size decreased and tail dimensions increased when reared in the presence of preying dragonfly larvae. Genetic variance in body size increased by almost an order of magnitude in the predator environment, and the first genetic principal component was found to be highly significantly different between the two environments. The across environment genetic correlation for body size was significantly below 1 indicating that different genes contributed to this trait in the two environments. Body size may therefore be able to respond to selection independently in the two environments to some extent.
Resumo:
The thelastomatoid fauna of Macropanesthia rhinoceros was examined from 13 localities across its range in Queensland, Australia. Nine species of thelastomatoids, including two representing new genera, Geoscaphenema megaovum n. g., n. sp. and Jaidenema rhinoceratum n. g., n. sp., were found. Macropanesthia rhinoceros is reported as a new host for seven species previously recorded from Panesthia cribrata (Blaberidae: Panesthiinae) and P. tryoni tryoni, viz, Blattophila sphaerolaima, Leidynemella fusiformis, Cordonicola gibsoni, Travassosinema jaidenae, Coronostoma australiae, Hammerschmidtiella hochi and Desmicola ornata. Overall estimated richness for the system ranged from 10.1-13.5 species. The high degree of parasite faunal overlap between M. rhinoceros and the two Panesthia species is surprising given the disparate ecological niches that they occupy; P. cribrata and P. tryoni tryoni burrow in, and feed upon, moist decaying wood and require a climate that is moist all year round, whereas M. rhinoceros burrows in loose soil, feeds on fallen leaf litter and is tolerant of much drier environments.
Resumo:
Consider a haploid population and, within its genome, a gene whose presence is vital for the survival of any individual. Each copy of this gene is subject to mutations which destroy its function. Suppose one member of the population somehow acquires a duplicate copy of the gene, where the duplicate is fully linked to the original gene's locus. Preservation is said to occur if eventually the entire population consists of individuals descended from this one which initially carried the duplicate. The system is modelled by a finite state-space Markov process which in turn is approximated by a diffusion process, whence an explicit expression for the probability of preservation is derived. The event of preservation can be compared to the fixation of a selectively neutral gene variant initially present in a single individual, the probability of which is the reciprocal of the population size. For very weak mutation, this and the probability of preservation are equal, while as mutation becomes stronger, the preservation probability tends to double this reciprocal. This is in excellent agreement with simulation studies.
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A formalism for describing the dynamics of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) using method s from statistical mechanics is applied to the problem of generalization in a perceptron with binary weights. The dynamics are solved for the case where a new batch of training patterns is presented to each population member each generation, which considerably simplifies the calculation. The theory is shown to agree closely to simulations of a real GA averaged over many runs, accurately predicting the mean best solution found. For weak selection and large problem size the difference equations describing the dynamics can be expressed analytically and we find that the effects of noise due to the finite size of each training batch can be removed by increasing the population size appropriately. If this population resizing is used, one can deduce the most computationally efficient size of training batch each generation. For independent patterns this choice also gives the minimum total number of training patterns used. Although using independent patterns is a very inefficient use of training patterns in general, this work may also prove useful for determining the optimum batch size in the case where patterns are recycled.
Resumo:
A theoretical model is presented which describes selection in a genetic algorithm (GA) under a stochastic fitness measure and correctly accounts for finite population effects. Although this model describes a number of selection schemes, we only consider Boltzmann selection in detail here as results for this form of selection are particularly transparent when fitness is corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. Finite population effects are shown to be of fundamental importance in this case, as the noise has no effect in the infinite population limit. In the limit of weak selection we show how the effects of any Gaussian noise can be removed by increasing the population size appropriately. The theory is tested on two closely related problems: the one-max problem corrupted by Gaussian noise and generalization in a perceptron with binary weights. The averaged dynamics can be accurately modelled for both problems using a formalism which describes the dynamics of the GA using methods from statistical mechanics. The second problem is a simple example of a learning problem and by considering this problem we show how the accurate characterization of noise in the fitness evaluation may be relevant in machine learning. The training error (negative fitness) is the number of misclassified training examples in a batch and can be considered as a noisy version of the generalization error if an independent batch is used for each evaluation. The noise is due to the finite batch size and in the limit of large problem size and weak selection we show how the effect of this noise can be removed by increasing the population size. This allows the optimal batch size to be determined, which minimizes computation time as well as the total number of training examples required.
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Multi-agent algorithms inspired by the division of labour in social insects are applied to a problem of distributed mail retrieval in which agents must visit mail producing cities and choose between mail types under certain constraints.The efficiency (i.e. the average amount of mail retrieved per time step), and the flexibility (i.e. the capability of the agents to react to changes in the environment) are investigated both in static and dynamic environments. New rules for mail selection and specialisation are introduced and are shown to exhibit improved efficiency and flexibility compared to existing ones. We employ a genetic algorithm which allows the various rules to evolve and compete. Apart from obtaining optimised parameters for the various rules for any environment, we also observe extinction and speciation. From a more theoretical point of view, in order to avoid finite size effects, most results are obtained for large population sizes. However, we do analyse the influence of population size on the performance. Furthermore, we critically analyse the causes of efficiency loss, derive the exact dynamics of the model in the large system limit under certain conditions, derive theoretical upper bounds for the efficiency, and compare these with the experimental results.
Resumo:
Purpose – The growth of women in management has been argued to offer a route to reduce organizational and social inequality. The purpose of this paper is to explore the careers and experiences of female managers from a variety of organizations operating in the West Midlands region of the UK. Design/methodology/approach – This study is based on 56 interviews conducted with women managers within various sectors. The interviewees also completed pictorial careers maps, which along with interview recordings were analyzed. Findings – The key themes to emerge from this research centre upon the factors that draw women into management (which we term seductive elements) as well as some of the hindering practices that prevent women from progressing. Significantly, we find that managerial careers are associated with gendered assumptions and practices (e.g. facilitating and developing people) which contribute to construct management (done by women) as bounded-up characteristically with “feminized” behaviours. Research limitations/implications – The research is based upon a relatively small sample that is multi-sectorial. Wider studies that increase population size, together with deeper studies that hold sectorial variables constant would further add weight to the findings presented here. Practical implications – The paper draws attention to the “lived reality” of doing management, which, we argue often, for women in particular involves the reconciliation of contradictions and conflicting pressures. We draw attention to the lack of “alternative models” of organization and highlight the potential for gender-focus mentoring and management education. Originality/value – The paper is of value in giving voice to a selection of women managers by allowing them to reflect upon and explore their experience of management. The paper also documents the day-to-day reality of women's managerial careers that require the re-enactment and reproduction of stereotypical gender norms.
Resumo:
AIM(S) To examine Primary Care Trust (PCT) demographics influencing general practitioner (GP) involvement in pharmacovigilance. METHODS PCT adverse drug reaction (ADR) reports to the Yellow Card scheme between April 2004 and March 2006 were obtained for the UK West Midlands region. Reports were analysed by all drugs, and most commonly reported drugs (‘top drugs’). PCT data, adjusted for population size, were aggregated. Prescribing statistics and other characteristics were obtained for each PCT, and associations between these characteristics and ADR reporting rates were examined. RESULTS During 2004–06, 1175 reports were received from PCTs. Two hundred and eighty (24%) of these reports were for 14 ‘top drugs’. The mean rate of reporting for PCTs was 213 reports per million population. A total of 153 million items were prescribed during 2004–06, of which 33% were ‘top drugs’. Reports for all drugs and ‘top drugs’ were inversely correlated with the number of prescriptions issued per thousand population (rs = -0.413, 95% CI -0.673, -0.062, P < 0.05, and r = -0.420, 95% CI -0.678, -0.071, P < 0.05, respectively). Reporting was significantly negatively correlated with the percentages of male GPs within a PCT, GPs over 55 years of age, single-handed GPs within a PCT, the average list size of a GP within a PCT, the overall deprivation scores and average QOF total points. ADR reports did not correlate significantly with the proportion of the population over 65 years old. CONCLUSIONS Some PCT characteristics appear to be associated with low levels of ADR reporting. The association of low prescribing areas with high ADR reporting rates replicates previous findings.