Assessing agglomeration economies in the Yangzi River Delta, China : a bayesian spatial econometric approach

This paper estimates the elasticity of labor productivity with respect to employment density, a widely used measure of the agglomeration effect, in the Yangtze River Delta, China. A spatial Durbin model is presented that makes explicit the influences of spatial dependence and endogeneity bias in a very simple way. Results of Bayesian estimation using the data of the year 2009 indicate that the productivity is influenced by factors correlated with density rather than density itself and that spatial spillovers of these factors of agglomeration play a significant role. They are consistent with the findings of Ke (2010) and Artis, et al. (2011) that suggest the importance of taking into account spatial dependence and hitherto omitted variables.

Spatial spillovers from FDI agglomeration : evidence from the Yangtze River Delta in China

Foreign firms have clustered together in the Yangtze River Delta, and their impact on domestic firms is an important policy issue. This paper studies the spatial effect of FDI agglomeration on the regional productivity of domestic firms, using Chinese firm-level data. To identify local FDI spillovers, we estimate the causal impact of foreign firms on domestic firms in the same county and similar industries. We then estimate a spatial-autoregressive model to examine spatial spillovers from FDI clusters to other domestic firms in distant counties. Our results show that FDI agglomeration generates positive spillovers for domestic firms, which are stronger in nearby areas than in distant areas.

Spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of the Ebro River Basin, Spain

The Ebro River Basin, with around 85 000 km2 and located in NE Spain, is characterized by the high spatial heterogeneity of its geology, topography, climatology and land use. Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables studied owing to its non-homogenous behaviour in event and intensity, which creates drought, water runoff and soil erosion with negative environmental and social consequences. In this work we characterized the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin using universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behaviour in time (? index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution ( s). A spatial and temporal analysis of the UM parameters is applied to study the possible changes. With this porpoise, 60 daily rainfall series were selected from 132 synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet). These daily rainfall series present a length of 60 years, from 1950 to 2009. Each one of them was subdivided (1950?1970 and 1980?2009) to analyse the difference between the two periods. The range of variation of precipitation amounts and the frequency of dry events between both periods are discussed, as well as the evolution of the UM parameters through the years.

Assessing the landscape value of public works: validation of the method in the lowlands of the middle section of the Tajo river (Spain)

This paper proposes a method of landscape characterisation and assessment of public works associated with fluvial landscapes, which is validated in the middle section of the Tajo River. In this method, a set of criteria is identified that unifies various characteristics of the landscape associated to the infrastructures. A specific weight is then assigned to each criterion in such a way as to produce a semi-quantitative value ranging from a minimum value of 0 to a maximum value of 10. Taken together, these criteria enable us to describe and assess the value of the public works selected for study, in this case helping us to evaluate the sections of the River Tajo analysed in our study area. Accordingly, the value of all the infrastructures associated to a stretch of the river covering several hundred kilometres was determined and after dividing this stretch into sections, they were compared under equivalent conditions to provide a hierarchal ranking.

Direct and indirect economic impacts of drought in the agri-food sector in the Ebro River basin (Spain).

The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Interaction between karstic aquifers and allogenic rivers: the aquifer of the national park of the ephemeral river Lobos Canyon (Spain)

A methodology is described for understanding the interaction of karstic aquifers with allogenic rivers, where little information is available. This methodology includes conventional hydrogen- ology methods tracer tests and measurements of flow into, out of and circulating within the karstic system. The method is designed to un- derstand the hydrogeological behaviour of a river in sufficient detail, given a short study pe- riod. The methodology is applied to a karstic system in Spain, obtaining useful, quantitative results for a hydrological year, such as an esti- mate of the water balance, differentiation be- tween autogenic and allogenic natural recharge, relationship and connection between the river and the aquifer, and measurements of infiltration capacity in watercourses under different hydro- logical situations. The paper deals with a useful example that could be applied to other rivers and aquifers where few data are available. It can be applied to aquifers under a natural regime and Mediterranean climate.

Hidrogeología e hidrodinámica del acuífero de los manantiales de Gormaz y su importancia en el caudal base del río Duero, España = Hydrogeology and hydrodynamic of the Gormaz Springs Aquifer and its importance to the base flow of the Duero River, Spain

Se cuantifican las descargas subterráneas de un acuífero a un río que lo atraviesa utilizando correlaciones estadísticas. El río Duero, España, incrementa su caudal base en varios m3/s, al atravesar unos afloramientos carbonatados mesozoicos en un pequeño tramo de su cabecera; esto es de especial importancia en época de estiaje, cuando la mayor parte del caudal base del río procede de manantiales que allí se sitúan. Dichos afloramientos corresponden a uno de los dos acuíferos calcáreos confinados, que se desarrollan en paralelo y están hidráulicamente desconectados por una capa impermeable, que forman el sistema acuífero de los manantiales de Gormaz. Este sistema se encuentra en estado de régimen natural y está apenas explotado. Se define el modelo conceptual de funcionamiento hidrogeológico, considerando el papel hidrogeológico de la falla de Gormaz, situada en la zona de descarga del sistema. Analizando información geológica antecedente y la geofísica exploratoria realizada, se obtuvo un mejor conocimiento de la geometría y los límites de los acuíferos, definiéndose un sistema acuífero con una zona de recarga en el sur, correspondiente a los afloramientos calcáreos, los cuales se confinan hacia el norte bajo el Terciario, hasta intersecar con la falla normal de Gormaz. El salto de falla genera una barrera para las formaciones permeables situadas al extremo norte (margen derecha del río Duero); a su vez, el plano de falla facilita el ascenso del agua subterránea del sistema acuífero en estudio y pone en conexión hidráulica los dos acuíferos. Se estimaron, además, los parámetros hidráulicos de los acuíferos en los alrededores de la falla. La buena correlación entre los niveles piezométricos y las descargas subterráneas al río Duero han permitido la reconstrucción del hidrograma de los manantiales de Gormaz en el periodo 1992-2006. Se calcula así que la contribución subterránea al río Duero es de 135.9 hm3/año, que supone el 18.9% de la aportación total del río. In a short stretch of its headwaters, the base flow of the River Duero increases by several m3/s as it traverses some Mesozoic carbonate outcrops. This is of special importance during the dry season, when the majority of the base flow of the river proceeds from springs in this reach. The outcrops correspond to one of two confined calcareous aquifers that developed in parallel but which are not hydraulically connected because of an impermeable layer. Together, they constitute the aquifer system of the Gormaz Springs. The system is still in its natural regime and is hardly exploited. This study defines the conceptual model of hydrogeological functioning, taking into consideration the role of the Gormaz Fault, which is situated in the discharge zone of the system. Analysis of both antecedent geological information and geophysical explorations has led to a better understanding of the geometry and boundaries of the aquifers, defining an aquifer system with a recharge zone in the south corresponding to in the calcareous outcrops. These calcareous outcrops are confined to the north below Tertiary formations, as far as their intersection with the normal fault of Gormaz. The throw of the fault forms the barrier of the permeable formations situated in the extreme north (right bank of the River Duero). In turn, the fault plane facilitates the upflow of groundwater from the aquifer system and creates hydraulic connection between the two aquifers. In addition, the study estimated the hydraulic parameters of the aquifer around the fault. The close correlation between piezometric levels and the groundwater discharges to the River Duero has enabled the reconstruction of the hydrogram of Gormaz springs over the period 1992-2006. By this means, it is calculated that the groundwater contribution to the River Duero is 135.9 hm3/year, or 18.9% of the total river inflow.

A Landscape-based Regionalization of Natural Flow Regimes in the Ebro River Basin and its Biological Validation. River Research and Applications

Regionalización de tipos de régimen natural de caudales en la cuenca del Ebro y validación biológica de los tipos de regímen natural.