973 resultados para testing against heavy tails
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Chlamydia trachomatis continues to be the most commonly reported sexually transmitted bacterial infection in many countries with more than 100 million new cases estimated annually. These acute infections translate into significant downstream health care costs, particularly for women, where complications can include pelvic inflammatory disease and other disease sequelae such as tubal factor infertility. Despite years of research, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protective immunity versus immunopathology are still not well understood, although it is widely accepted that T cell driven IFN-g and Th17 responses are critical for clearing infection. While antibodies are able to neutralize infections in vitro, alone they are not protective, indicating that any successful vaccine will need to elicit both arms of the immune response. In recent years, there has been an expansion in the number and types of antigens that have been evaluated as vaccines, and combined with the new array of mucosal adjuvants, this aspect of chlamydial vaccinology is showing promise. Most recently, the opportunities to develop successful vaccines have been given a significant boost with the development of a genetic transformation system for Chlamydia, as well as the identification of the key role of the chlamydial plasmid in virulence. While still remaining a major challenge, the development of a successful C.trachomatis vaccine is starting to look more likely.
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Finite Element modelling of bone fracture fixation systems allows computational investigation of the deformation response of the bone to load. Once validated, these models can be easily adapted to explore changes in design or configuration of a fixator. The deformation of the tissue within the fracture gap determines its healing and is often summarised as the stiffness of the construct. FE models capable of reproducing this behaviour would provide valuable insight into the healing potential of different fixation systems. Current model validation techniques lack depth in 6D load and deformation measurements. Other aspects of the FE model creation such as the definition of interfaces between components have also not been explored. This project investigated the mechanical testing and FE modelling of a bone– plate construct for the determination of stiffness. In depth 6D measurement and analysis of the generated forces, moments and movements showed large out of plane behaviours which had not previously been characterised. Stiffness calculated from the interfragmentary movement was found to be an unsuitable summary parameter as the error propagation is too large. Current FE modelling techniques were applied in compression and torsion mimicking the experimental setup. Compressive stiffness was well replicated, though torsional stiffness was not. The out of plane behaviours prevalent in the experimental work were not replicated in the model. The interfaces between the components were investigated experimentally and through modification to the FE model. Incorporation of the interface modelling techniques into the full construct models had no effect in compression but did act to reduce torsional stiffness bringing it closer to that of the experiment. The interface definitions had no effect on out of plane behaviours, which were still not replicated. Neither current nor novel FE modelling techniques were able to replicate the out of plane behaviours evident in the experimental work. New techniques for modelling loads and boundary conditions need to be developed to mimic the effects of the entire experimental system.
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As a group of committed literacy teacher educators from five universities across three Australian states, the authors bring professional critique to the problematic issue of what counts in current and possible future measures of pre-service teachers’ literacy capacity. In times when normalising models of literacy assessment ignore innovative developments in technologies, we provide an example of what is happening at the ‘chalk-face’ of literacy teacher education. This paper describes a study that demonstrates how responsible alignment of teacher accreditation requirements with a scholarly impetus to incorporate digital literacies to prepare pre-service teachers will help address changing educational needs and practices (AITSL 2012; Gillen & Barton 2010; Hattie 2003; Johnson, Smith, Willis, Levine & Haywood 2011; Klein 2006; Masny & Cole 2012; OECD 2011).
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This thesis provides an experimental and computational platform for investigating the performance and behaviour of water filled, plastic portable road safety barriers in an isolated impact scenario. A schedule of experimental impact tests were conducted assessing the impact response of an existing design of road safety barrier utilising a novel horizontal impact testing system. A coupled finite element and smooth particle hydrodynamic model of the barrier system was developed and validated against the results of the experimental tests. The validated model was subsequently used to assess the effect of certain composite materials on the impact performance of the water filled, portable road safety barrier system.
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Background: Random Breath Testing (RBT) is the main drink driving law enforcement tool used throughout Australia. International comparative research considers Australia to have the most successful RBT program compared to other countries in terms of crash reductions (Erke, Goldenbeld, & Vaa, 2009). This success is attributed to the programs high intensity (Erke et al., 2009). Our review of the extant literature suggests that there is no research evidence that indicates an optimal level of alcohol breath testing. That is, we suggest that no research exists to guide policy regarding whether or not there is a point at which alcohol related crashes reach a point of diminishing returns as a result of either saturated or targeted RBT testing. Aims: In this paper we first provide an examination of RBTs and alcohol related crashes across Australian jurisdictions. We then address the question of whether or not an optimal level of random breath testing exists by examining the relationship between the number of RBTs conducted and the occurrence of alcohol-related crashes over time, across all Australian states. Method: To examine the association between RBT rates and alcohol related crashes and to assess whether an optimal ratio of RBT tests per licenced drivers can be determined we draw on three administrative data sources form each jurisdiction. Where possible data collected spans January 1st 2000 to September 30th 2012. The RBT administrative dataset includes the number of Random Breath Tests (RBTs) conducted per month. The traffic crash administrative dataset contains aggregated monthly count of the number of traffic crashes where an individual’s recorded BAC reaches or exceeds 0.05g/ml of alcohol in blood. The licenced driver data were the monthly number of registered licenced drivers spanning January 2000 to December 2011. Results: The data highlights that the Australian story does not reflective of all States and territories. The stable RBT to licenced driver ratio in Queensland (of 1:1) suggests a stable rate of alcohol related crash data of 5.5 per 100,000 licenced drivers. Yet, in South Australia were a relative stable rate of RBT to licenced driver ratio of 1:2 is maintained the rate of alcohol related traffic crashes is substantially less at 3.7 per 100,000. We use joinpoint regression techniques and varying regression models to fit the data and compare the different patterns between jurisdictions. Discussion: The results of this study provide an updated review and evaluation of RBTs conducted in Australia and examines the association between RBTs and alcohol related traffic crashes. We also present an evidence base to guide policy decisions for RBT operations.
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With the advent of alternative fuels, such as biodiesels and related blends, it is important to develop an understanding of their effects on inter-cycle variability which, in turn, influences engine performance as well as its emission. Using four methanol trans-esterified biomass fuels of differing carbon chain length and degree of unsaturation, this paper provides insight into the effect that alternative fuels have on inter-cycle variability. The experiments were conducted with a heavy-duty Cummins, turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine. Combustion performance is reported in terms of the following key in-cylinder parameters: indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), net heat release rate (NHRR), standard deviation of variability (StDev), coefficient of variation (CoV), peak pressure, peak pressure timing and maximum rate of pressure rise. A link is also established between the cyclic variability and oxygen ratio, which is a good indicator of stoichiometry. The results show that the fatty acid structures did not have a significant effect on injection timing, injection duration, injection pressure, StDev of IMEP, or the timing of peak motoring and combustion pressures. However, a significant effect was noted on the premixed and diffusion combustion proportions, combustion peak pressure and maximum rate of pressure rise. Additionally, the boost pressure, IMEP and combustion peak pressure were found to be directly correlated to the oxygen ratio. The emission of particles positively correlates with oxygen content in the fuel as well as in the air-fuel mixture resulting in a higher total number of particles per unit of mass.
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Background Random Breath Testing (RBT) remains a central enforcement strategy to deter and apprehend drink drivers in Queensland (Australia). Despite this, there is little published research regarding the exact drink driving apprehension rates across the state as measured through RBT activities. Aims The aim of the current study was to examine the prevalence of apprehending drink drivers in urban versus rural areas. Methods The Queensland Police Service provided data relating to the number of RBT conducted and apprehensions for the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2011. Results In the period, 35,082,386 random breath tests (both mobile and stationary) were conducted in Queensland which resulted in 248,173 individuals being apprehended for drink driving offences. Overall drink driving apprehension rates appear to have decreased across time. Close examination of the data revealed that the highest proportion of drink driving apprehensions (when compared with RBT testing rates) was in the Northern and Far Northern regions of Queensland (e.g., rural areas). In contrast, the lowest proportions were observed within the two Brisbane metropolitan regions (e.g., urban areas). However, differences in enforcement styles across the urban and rural regions need to be considered. Discussion and conclusions The research presentation will further outline the major findings of the study in regards to maximising the efficiency of RBT operations both within urban and rural areas of Queensland, Australia.
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The importance of applying unsaturated soil mechanics to geotechnical engineering design has been well understood. However, the consumption of time and the necessity for a specific laboratory testing apparatus when measuring unsaturated soil properties have limited the application of unsaturated soil mechanics theories in practice. Although methods for predicting unsaturated soil properties have been developed, the verification of these methods for a wide range of soil types is required in order to increase the confidence of practicing engineers in using these methods. In this study, a new permeameter was developed to measure the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils using the steady-state method and directly measured suction (negative pore-water pressure) values. The apparatus is instrumented with two tensiometers for the direct measurement of suction during the tests. The apparatus can be used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity function of sandy soil over a low suction range (0-10 kPa). Firstly, the repeatability of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measurement, using the new permeameter, was verified by conducting tests on two identical sandy soil specimens and obtaining similar results. The hydraulic conductivity functions of the two sandy soils were then measured during the drying and wetting processes of the soils. A significant hysteresis was observed when the hydraulic conductivity was plotted against the suction. However, the hysteresis effects were not apparent when the conductivity was plotted against the volumetric water content. Furthermore, the measured unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions were compared with predictions using three different predictive methods that are widely incorporated into numerical software. The results suggest that these predictive methods are capable of capturing the measured behavior with reasonable agreement.
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In South and Southeast Asia, postharvest loss causes material waste of up to 66% in fruits and vegetables, 30% in oilseeds and pulses, and 49% in roots and tubers. The efficiency of postharvest equipment directly affects industrial-scale food production. To enhance current processing methods and devices, it is essential to analyze the responses of food materials under loading operations. Food materials undergo different types of mechanical loading during postharvest and processing stages. Therefore, it is important to determine the properties of these materials under different types of loads, such as tensile, compression, and indentation. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the available literature on the tensile properties of different food samples. The aim of this review was to categorize the available methods of tensile testing for agricultural crops and food materials to investigate an appropriate sample size and tensile test method. The results were then applied to perform tensile tests on pumpkin flesh and peel samples, in particular on arc-sided samples at a constant loading rate of 20 mm min-1. The results showed the maximum tensile stress of pumpkin flesh and peel samples to be 0.535 and 1.45 MPa, respectively. The elastic modulus of the flesh and peel samples was 6.82 and 25.2 MPa, respectively, while the failure modulus values were 14.51 and 30.88 MPa, respectively. The results of the tensile tests were also used to develop a finite element model of mechanical peeling of tough-skinned vegetables. However, to study the effects of deformation rate, moisture content, and texture of the tissue on the tensile responses of food materials, more investigation needs to be done in the future.
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This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.
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Skin cancer is one of the most commonly occurring cancer types, with substantial social, physical, and financial burdens on both individuals and societies. Although the role of UV light in initiating skin cancer development has been well characterized, genetic studies continue to show that predisposing factors can influence an individual's susceptibility to skin cancer and response to treatment. In the future, it is hoped that genetic profiles, comprising a number of genetic markers collectively involved in skin cancer susceptibility and response to treatment or prognosis, will aid in more accurately informing practitioners' choices of treatment. Individualized treatment based on these profiles has the potential to increase the efficacy of treatments, saving both time and money for the patient by avoiding the need for extensive or repeated treatment. Increased treatment responses may in turn prevent recurrence of skin cancers, reducing the burden of this disease on society. Currently existing pharmacogenomic tests, such as those that assess variation in the metabolism of the anticancer drug fluorouracil, have the potential to reduce the toxic effects of anti-tumor drugs used in the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) by determining individualized appropriate dosage. If the savings generated by reducing adverse events negate the costs of developing these tests, pharmacogenomic testing may increasingly inform personalized NMSC treatment.
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Chlamydia pneumoniae commonly causes respiratory tract infections in children, and epidemiological investigations strongly link infection to the pathogenesis of asthma. The immune system in early life is immature and may not respond appropriately to pathogens. Toll-like receptor (TLR)2 and 4 are regarded as the primary pattern recognition receptors that sense bacteria, however their contribution to innate and adaptive immunity in early life remains poorly defined. We investigated the role of TLR2 and 4 in the induction of immune responses to Chlamydia muridarum respiratory infection, in neonatal wild-type (Wt) or TLR2-deficient (−/−), 4−/− or 2/4−/− BALB/c mice. Wt mice had moderate disease and infection. TLR2−/− mice had more severe disease and more intense and prolonged infection compared to other groups. TLR4−/− mice were asymptomatic. TLR2/4−/− mice had severe early disease and persistent infection, which resolved thereafter consistent with the absence of symptoms in TLR4−/− mice. Wt mice mounted robust innate and adaptive responses with an influx of natural killer (NK) cells, neutrophils, myeloid (mDCs) and plasmacytoid (pDCs) dendritic cells, and activated CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells into the lungs. Wt mice also had effective production of interferon (IFN)γ in the lymph nodes and lung, and proliferation of lymph node T-cells. TLR2−/− mice had more intense and persistent innate (particularly neutrophil) and adaptive cell responses and IL-17 expression in the lung, however IFNγ responses and T-cell proliferation were reduced. TLR2/4−/− mice had reduced innate and adaptive responses. Most importantly, neutrophil phagocytosis was impaired in the absence of TLR2. Thus, TLR2 expression, particularly on neutrophils, is required for effective control of Chlamydia respiratory infection in early life. Loss of control of infection leads to enhanced but ineffective TLR4-mediated inflammatory responses that prolong disease symptoms. This indicates that TLR2 agonists may be beneficial in the treatment of early life Chlamydia infections and associated diseases.
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A cross-sectional survey was conducted, and the construct validity and reliability of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure in an Australian sample of registered nurses were examined. Nurses were randomly selected from the database of an Australian nursing organization. The original 33 items of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure were utilized to inform the psychometric properties using confirmatory factor analysis. The Cronbach's alpha was 0.938 for the total scale and ranged 0.657–0.887 for the subscales. A five-factor structure of the measure was confirmed, χ2 = 944.622, (P < 0.01), χ2/d.f. ratio = 2.845, Tucker Lewis Index 0.929, Root Mean Square Error = 0.061 and Comparative Fit Index = 0.906. The selected 28 items of the measure proved reliable and valid in measuring effects of the practice environment upon Australian nurses. The implications are that regular measurement of the practice environment using these 28 items might assist in the development of strategies which might improve job satisfaction and retention of registered nurses in Australia.
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The purpose of the study was to undertake rigorous psychometric testing of the Caring Efficacy Scale in a sample of Registered Nurses. A cross-sectional survey of 2000 registered nurses was undertaken. The Caring Efficacy Scale was utilised to inform the psychometric properties of the selected items of the Caring Efficacy Scale. Cronbach’s Alpha identified reliability of the data. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were undertaken to validate the factors. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the development of two factors; Confidence to Care and Doubts and Concerns. The Caring Efficacy Scale has undergone rigorous psychometric testing, affording evidence of internal consistency and goodness-of-fit indices within satisfactory ranges. The Caring Efficacy Scale is valid for use in an Australian population of registered nurses. The scale can be used as a subscale or total score reflective of self-efficacy in nursing. This scale may assist nursing educators to predict levels of caring efficacy.
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The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.