Solicitors disciplinary hearings in Queensland 1930-2000: a statistical analysis

This article reports on the results of a study undertaken by the author together with her research assistant, Heather Green. The study collected and analysed data from all disciplinary tribunal decisions heard in Queensland since 1930 in an attempt to provide empirical information which has previously been lacking. This article will outline the main features of the disciplinary system in Queensland, describe the research methodology used in the present study and then report on some findings from the study. Reported findings include a profile of solicitors who have appeared before a disciplinary hearing, the types of matters which have attracted formal discipline and the types of orders made by the tribunal. Much of the data is then presented on a time scale so as to reveal any changes over time.

Predictions of quantum mechanics and stochastic electrodynamics in travelling wave second harmonic generation

We show that stochastic electrodynamics and quantum mechanics give quantitatively different predictions for the quantum nondemolition (QND) correlations in travelling wave second harmonic generation. Using phase space methods and stochastic integration, we calculate correlations in both the positive-P and truncated Wigner representations, the latter being equivalent to the semi-classical theory of stochastic electrodynamics. We show that the semiclassical results are different in the regions where the system performs best in relation to the QND criteria, and that they significantly overestimate the performance in these regions. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

The relation between the transversus abdominis muscles, sacroilac joint mechanics, and low back pain

Study Design. Two abdominal muscle patterns were tested in the same group of individuals, and their effects were compared in relation to sacroiliac joint laxity. One pattern was contraction of the transversus abdominis, Independently of the other abdominals; the other was a bracing action that used all the lateral abdominal muscles. Objectives. To demonstrate the biomechanical effect of the exercise for the transversus abdominis known to be effective in low back pain. Summary of Background Data. Drawing in the abdominal wall is a specific exercise for the transversus abdominis muscle (in cocontraction with the multifidus), which is used in the treatment of back pain. Clinical effectiveness has been demonstrated to be a reduction of 3-year recurrence from 75% to 35%. To the authors' best knowledge, there is not yet in vivo proof of the biomechanical effect of this specific exercise. This study of a biomechanical model on the mechanics of the sacroiliac joint, however, predicted a significant effect of transversus abdominis muscle force. Methods. Thirteen healthy individuals who could perform the test patterns were included. Sacroiliac joint laxity values were recorded with study participants in the prone position during the two abdominal muscle patterns. The values were recorded by means of Doppler Imaging of vibrations. Simultaneous electromyographic recordings and ultrasound imaging were used to verify the two muscle patterns. Results. The range of sacroiliac joint laxity values observed in this study was comparable with levels found in earlier studies of healthy individuals. These values decreased significantly in all individuals during both muscle patterns (P < 0.001). The independent transversus abdominis contraction decreased sacroiliac joint laxity (or rather increased sacroiliac joint stiffness) to a significantly greater degree than the general abdominal exercise pat-tern (P < 0.0260). Conclusions. Contraction of the transversus abdominis significantly decreases the laxity of the sacroiliac joint. This decrease in laxity is larger than that caused by a bracing action using all the lateral abdominal muscles. These findings are in line with the authors' biomechanical model predictions and support the use of independent transversus abdominis contractions for the treatment of low back pain.

Effect of manual hyperinflation on hemodynamics, gas exchange, and respiratory mechanics in ventilated patients

The authors investigated the effect of manual hyperinflation (MHI) with set parameters applied to patients on mechanical ventilation on hemodynamics, respiratory mechanics, and gas exchange. Sixteen critically ill patients post-septic shock, with acute lung injury, were studied. Heart rate, arterial pressure, and mean pulmonary artery pressure were recorded every minute. pulmonary artery occlusion pressure, cardiac output, arterial blood gases, and dynamic compliance (C-dyn) were recorded pre- and post-MHI. From this, systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI), cardiac index, oxygen delivery, and partial pressure of oxygen:fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2:FiO(2)) ratio were calculated. There were significant increases in SVRI (P < 0.05) post-MHI and diastolic arterial pressure (P < 0.01)during MHI. C-dyn increased post-MHI (P < 0.01) and was sustained at 20 minutes post-MHI (P < 0.01). Subjects with an intrapulmonary cause of lung disease had a significant decrease (P = 0.02) in PaO2:FiO(2), and those with extrapulmonary causes of lung disease had a significant increase (P < 0.001) in PaO2:FiO(2) post-MHI. In critically ill patients, MHI resulted in an improvement in lung mechanics and an improvement in gas exchange in patients with lung disease due to extrapulmonary events and did not result in impairment of the cardiovascular system.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

A partial velocity approach to subcycling structural dynamics

Subcycling, or the use of different timesteps at different nodes, can be an effective way of improving the computational efficiency of explicit transient dynamic structural solutions. The method that has been most widely adopted uses a nodal partition. extending the central difference method, in which small timestep updates are performed interpolating on the displacement at neighbouring large timestep nodes. This approach leads to narrow bands of unstable timesteps or statistical stability. It also can be in error due to lack of momentum conservation on the timestep interface. The author has previously proposed energy conserving algorithms that avoid the first problem of statistical stability. However, these sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. An approach to conserve momentum on an element interface by adding partial velocities is considered here. Applied to extend the central difference method. this approach is simple. and has accuracy advantages. The method can be programmed by summing impulses of internal forces, evaluated using local element timesteps, in order to predict a velocity change at a node. However, it is still only statistically stable, so an adaptive timestep size is needed to monitor accuracy and to be adjusted if necessary. By replacing the central difference method with the explicit generalized alpha method. it is possible to gain stability by dissipating the high frequency response that leads to stability problems. However. coding the algorithm is less elegant, as the response depends on previous partial accelerations. Extension to implicit integration, is shown to be impractical due to the neglect of remote effects of internal forces acting across a timestep interface. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.