Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

Explaining sleep duration in adolescents: The impact of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors and working status

Previous studies found students who both work and attend school undergo a partial sleep deprivation that accumulates across the week. The aim of the present study was to obtain information using a questionnaire on a number of variables (e.g., socio-demographics, lifestyle, work timing, and sleep-wake habits) considered to impact on sleep duration of working (n = 51) and non-working (n = 41) high-school students aged 14-21 yrs old attending evening classes (19:00-22:30h) at a public school in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected for working days and days off. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with sleep duration on weekdays and weekends. Work, sex, age, smoking, consumption of alcohol and caffeine, and physical activity were considered control variables. Significant predictors of sleep duration were: work (p < 0.01), daily work duration (8-10h/day; p < 0.01), sex (p = 0.04), age 18-21 yrs (0.01), smoking (p = 0.02) and drinking habits (p = 0.03), irregular physical exercise (p < 0.01), ease of falling asleep (p = 0.04), and the sleep-wake cycle variables of napping (p < 0.01), nocturnal awakenings (p < 0.01), and mid-sleep regularity (p < 0.01). The results confirm the hypotheses that young students who work and attend school showed a reduction in night-time sleep duration. Sleep deprivation across the week, particularly in students working 8-10h/day, is manifested through a sleep rebound (i.e., extended sleep duration) on Saturdays. However, the different roles played by socio-demographic and lifestyle variables have proven to be factors that intervene with nocturnal sleep duration. The variables related to the sleep-wake cyclenaps and night awakeningsproved to be associated with a slight reduction in night-time sleep, while regularity in sleep and wake-up schedules was shown to be associated with more extended sleep duration, with a distinct expression along the week and the weekend. Having to attend school and work, coupled with other socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, creates an unfavorable scenario for satisfactory sleep duration.

Early Phase of Allergic Airway Inflammation in Diabetic Rats: Role of Insulin on the Signaling Pathways and Mediators

Background: Allergic lung inflammation is impaired in diabetic rats and is restored by insulin treatment. In the present study we investigated the effect of insulin on the signaling pathways triggered by allergic inflammation in the lung and the release of selected mediators. Methods: Diabetic male Wistar rats (alloxan, 42 mg/kg, i.v., 10 days) and matching controls were sensitized by s.c. injections of ovalbumin (OA) in aluminium hydroxide, 14 days before OA (1 mg/0.4 ml) or saline intratracheal challenge. A group of diabetic rats were treated with neutral protamine Hagedorn insulin (NPH, 4 IU, s.c.), 2 h before the OA challenge. Six hours after the challenge, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was performed for mediator release and lung tissue was homogenized for Western blotting analysis of signaling pathways. Results: Relative to non-diabetic rats, the diabetic rats exhibited a significant reduction in OA-induced phosphorylation of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK, 59%), p38 (53%), protein kinase B (Akt, 46%), protein kinase C (PKC)-alpha (63%) and PKC-delta (38%) in lung homogenates following the antigen challenge. Activation of the NF-kappa B p65 subunit and phosphorylation of I kappa B alpha were almost suppressed in diabetic rats. Reduced expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS, 32%) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2, 46%) in the lung homogenates was also observed. The BAL concentration of prostaglandin (PG)-E(2), nitric oxide (NO) and interleukin (IL)-6 was reduced in diabetic rats (74%, 44% and 65%, respectively), whereas the cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant (CINC)-2 concentration was not different from the control animals. Treatment of diabetic rats with insulin completely or partially restored all of these parameters. This protocol of insulin treatment only partially reduced the blood glucose levels. Conclusion: The data presented show that insulin regulates MAPK, PI3K, PKC and NF-kappa B pathways, the expression of the inducible enzymes iNOS and COX-2, and the levels of NO, PGE(2) and IL-6 in the early phase of allergic lung inflammation in diabetic rats. It is suggested that insulin is required for optimal transduction of the intracellular signals that follow allergic stimulation. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Early modulation of inflammation by mesenchymal stem cell after acute kidney injury

Therapy with stem cells has showed to be promising for acute kidney injury (AKI), although how it works is still controversial. Modulation of the inflammatory response is one possible mechanism. Most of published data relies on early time and whether the protection is still maintained after that is not known. Here, we analyzed whether immune modulation continues after 24 h of reperfusion. MSC were obtained from male Wistar rats. After 3-5 passages, cells were screened for CD73, CD90, CD44, CD45, CD29 and CD 31. In addition, MSC were submitted to differentiation in adipocyte and in osteocyte. AKI was induced by bilaterally clamping of renal pedicles for 60 min. Six hours after injury, MSC (2 x 105 cells) were administered intravenously. MSC-treated animals presented the lowest serum creatinine compared to non-treated animals (24 h: 1.3 +/- 0.21 vs. 3.23 +/- 0.89 mg/dl, p<0.05). The improvement in renal function was followed by a lower expression of IL-1b, IL-6 and TNF-alpha and higher expression of IL-4 and IL-10. However, 48 h after reperfusion, this cytokine profile has changed. The decrease in Th1 cytokines was less evident and IL-6 was markedly up regulated. PCNA analysis showed that regeneration occurs faster in kidney tissues of MSC-treated animals than in controls at 24 h. And also ratio of Bcl-2/Bad was higher at treated animals after 24 and 48 h. Our data demonstrated that the immunomodulatory effects of MSC occur at very early time point, changing the inflammation profile toward a Th2 profile. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Purchasing power parity: the choice of price index

Looking closely at the PPP argument, it states that the currencies purchasing power should not change when comparing the same basket goods across countries, and these goods should all be tradable. Hence, if PPP is valid at all, it should be captured by the relative price indices that best Öts these two features. We ran a horse race among six di§erent price indices available from the IMF database to see which one would yield higher PPP evidence, and, therefore, better Öt the two features. We used RER proxies measured as the ratio of export unit values, wholesale prices, value added deáators, unit labor costs, normalized unit labor costs and consumer prices, for a sample of 16 industrial countries, with quarterly data from 1975 to 2002. PPP was tested using both the ADF and the DFGLS unit root test of the RER series. The RER measured as WPI ratios was the one for which PPP evidence was found for the larger number of countries: six out of sixteen when we use DF-GLS test with demeaned series. The worst measure of all was the RER based on the ratio of foreign CPIs and domestic WPI. No evidence of PPP at all was found for this measure.

Analysis of testosterone pulsatility in women with ovulatory menstrual cycles

Objetivo: Avaliar o padrão pulsátil da secreção da testosterona em mulheres normais. Métodos: Oito mulheres saudáveis com ciclos ovulatórios foram selecionadas. Amostras sanguíneas foram coletadas a cada dez minutos durante seis horas, começando entre 7 e 8 h da manhã, após dez horas de jejum, nas três fases do ciclo menstrual: folicular média (Dia 7), folicular tardia (Dia 12) e lútea (Dia 21). Foram mensurados: testosterona, LH e, no basal, também SHBG. Resultados: A frequência dos pulsos de testosterona, média da amplitude do pulso, porcentagem do incremento da amplitude, duração e intervalos dos pulsos foram similares nas três fases (p > 0,05). A pulsatilidade do LH foi estatisticamente diferente entre as três fases (p < 0,001), caracterizando padrão característico do ciclo ovulatório normal. Conclusões: Esses dados aumentam o conhecimento sobre o padrão de secreção da testosterona no ciclo menstrual humano e representam uma contribuição para a investigação clínica, tanto no hiperandrogenismo como na síndrome de insuficiência androgênica __________________________________________________ ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the pattern of the pulsatile secretion of testosterone in normal menstrual cycle. Methods: Eight healthy women with ovulatory menstrual cycles were enrolled. Blood samples were collected at ten-minute intervals for six hours, starting between 7 and 8 am, after a ten-hour fasting, in three phases: mid-follicular (Day 7), late follicular (Day 12) and mid-luteal phase (Day 21). Samples were assayed for testosterone, LH and the baseline also for SHBG. Results: Testosterone pulse frequency, mean amplitude pulse, percentage of increment in pulse amplitude, mean duration of pulses and pulse interval were similar in the three phases. LH pulsatility was statistically different among the three phases (p < 0.001) representing normal ovulatory cycles. Conclusions: These data increase the knowledge about the testosterone secretion profile in the human menstrual cycle and can be used as a contribution to clinical investigation in both hyperandrogenism and androgen insufficiency syndrome

Quali/quantitative characterization of biogas produced in batch digesters supplied with six distinct substrates

Com a finalidade de se analisar quali/quantitativamente o biogás produzido por 6 tipos de substratos, efetuou-se a presente pesquisa no DER/FCAV/UNESP- SP, Brasil. Os substratos utilizados na digestão anaeróbia foram caracterizados como: 1- Esterco de aves de postura (EAP); 2- Esterco de aves de postura triturado (EAPT); 3- Esterco de aves de corte com cama de maravalha (EACM); 4- Esterco de aves de corte com cama de maravalha triturado (EACMT); 5- Esterco de aves de corte com cama de casca de amendoim (EACA), e 6- Esterco de aves de corte com cama de casca de amendoim triturado (EACAT). Dos resultados obtidos, concluiu-se que, em relação à produção acumulada de biogás, o substrato EAPT foi superior aos demais, enquanto EACM apresentou produção acumulada inferior. em geral, os substratos triturados apresentaram maior quantidade de biogás acumulado em relação aos não triturados, exceto o EACAT, com 20,9 m³ inferior ao EACA. O período de produção máxima de biogás teve início entre 45 e 60 dias, começando a decair a partir dos 120 dias. Aos 57 dias após o enchimento dos biodigestores, o gás produzido possuía teores de CH4 superiores a 53%, e a partir dos 99 dias, todos produziram biogás com teores de CH4 superiores a 70%. Os substratos EAP e EAPT apresentaram maiores concentrações de metano no biogás.

Effect of moderate and severe heat stress on avian embryonic Hsp70 gene expression

Stress response is a universal mechanism developed by all organisms to deal with adverse changes in the environment, which lead to the synthesis of heat shock proteins (Hsps). In this study, the effect of moderate (41degreesC) and severe (44degreesC) heat stress on Hsp70 transcript expression pattern was investigated during chicken embryogenesis. Acute exposure to severe heat stress for one hour resulted in a fifteen-fold increase in Hsp70 mRNA levels. The return of stressed embryos to normal incubation temperature resulted in Hsp70 mRNA levels five-fold higher than control after three hours and normal levels after six hours. Moderate heat stress did not induce enhancements on Hsp70 mRNA levels. The spatial expression of Hsp70 transcripts was detected in embryos under normal incubation conditions. Whole-mount in situ hybridization analysis showed that Hsp70 transcripts were constitutively present in somite and in distinct encephalic domains (predominantly in prosencephalon and mesencephalon areas) of the chicken embryo. These results showed that Hsp70 induction is dependent on incubation temperature conditions, suggesting that early chicken embryos may induce a quick emergence response to cope with severe heat stress by increasing Hsp70 mRNA levels.

Influence of egg pre-storage heating period and storage length on incubation results

This experiment aimed at evaluating the influence of different heating times of settable eggs of Cobb 500® broiler breeders before submitting them to different storage periods on egg weight loss, embryo mortality, and hatchability. A total number of 1,980 eggs were distributed in a completely randomized experimental design with a 3 x 3 factorial arrangement, comprising nine treatments with 22 replicates of 10 eggs each. The following factors were analyzed: pre-storage heating periods (0, 6, 12 hours at 36.92°C) and storage periods (4, 9, 14 days at 12.06°C). After storage, eggs were incubated under usual conditions, and were transferred to the hatcher at 442 hours of incubation. Eggs were weighed before heating, incubation, and transference to determine weight loss. Partial hatchability was determined at 480 hours, and total hatchability at 498 hours of incubation. Embryo mortality was determined in non-hatched eggs. It was concluded that heating eggs for six hour before storage improves incubation results as it decreases incubation length and late embryo mortality, therefore its use can be indicated in commercial operations. Storing eggs for 14 days and pre-heating for 14 days and pre-heating for 12 hours severely impair incubation results, and therefore are not recommended.

Methods for evaluating the physiological potential of scarlet eggplant (Solanum aethiopicum) seeds

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of repellents for honeybees (Apis mellifera L.) in vitro in the yellow passion-fruit (Passiflora edulis Deg) crop and in confined beef cattle feeders

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Structural analysis of the Pimelodus maculatus (Lacépède, 1803) embryogenesis (Siluriformes: Pimelodidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The first reported case of human tick paralysis in Brazil: a new induction pattern by immature stages

Tick paralysis (TP) is a rare disease with rapid progression and potential fatal evolution. Immediately after the diagnosis, removal of all ticks from the body of the patient is mandatory. The present study reports for the first time a human case of the disease in Brazil. The patient had loss of muscle strength, decreased reflexes and marked palpebral ptosis. Six hours after removal of the last tick, the ptosis improved and on the following day, the patient had near total regression of the symptoms. This report emphasizes the possible presence of similar cases that should be promptly diagnosed and quickly treated. A new induction pattern for TP in humans associated with immature stages of ticks is also presented.

Agaricus blazei (Himematsutake) does not alter the development of rat diethylnitrosamine-initiated hepatic preneoplastic foci

The modifying potential of crude extracts of the mushroom Agaricus blazei Murrill (Himematsutake) on the development and growth of glutathione S-transferase placental form (GST-P)-positive liver foci (liver preneoplastic lesion) was investigated in adult male Wistar rats. Six groups of animals were used. Groups 2 to 5 were given a single i.p. injection of 200 mg/kg b.w. of diethylnitrosamine (DEN) and groups 1 and 6 were treated with saline at the beginning of the experiment. After 2 weeks, animals of groups 3 to 6 were orally treated with three dose levels of aqueous extracts of the mushroom A. blazei (1.2, 5.6, 11.5, and 11.5 mg/ml of dry weight of solids) for 6 weeks. All animals were subjected to two-thirds partial hepatectomy at week 3 and sacrificed at week 8. Two hours before sacrifice, ten animals of each group were administered a single i.p injection of 100 mg/kg of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU). Apoptotic bodies and BrdU-positive hepatocyte nuclei were quantified in liver sections stained for hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) (eosinophilic foci) and simultaneously stained for GST-P expression (GST-P-positive foci), respectively. The 6-week treatment with A. blazei did not alter the development (number and size) of GST-P-positive foci and did not affect the growth kinetics of liver normal parenchyma or foci in DEN-initiated animals. Our results indicate that the treatment with aqueous extracts of the mushroom A. blazei during the post-initiation stage of rat liver carcinogenesis does not exert any protective effect against the development of GST-P-positive foci induced by DEN. (Cancer Sci 2003; 94: 188-192).

Effect of pH variations in a cycling model on the properties of restorative materials

This study evaluated the effect of cycling various pH demineralizing solutions on the surface hardness, fluoride release and surface properties of restorative materials (Ketac-Fil Plus, Vitremer, Fuji II LC, Freedom and Fluorofil). Thirty specimens of each material were made and the surface hardness measured. The specimens were randomized into five groups according to the pH (4.3; 4.6; 5.0; 5.5 and 6.2) of the demineralizing solution. The specimens were submitted to pH-cycling for 15 days. The specimens remained in the demineralizing solution for six hours and in the remineralizing solution for 18 hours. Then, the surface hardness (SH) was remeasured and the surface properties were assessed. Fluoride release was determined daily. Data from SH and the percentage of alteration in surface hardness were analyzed by analysis of variance (p < 0.05); the Kruskal-Wallis test was performed for the fluoride release results. When hardness was compared, the variation in pH led to a positive correlation for glass ionomer cements and a negative correlation for fluoride release. For polyacid-modified resin composites, a negative correlation was found with regards to fluoride release; no significant correlation was observed for hardness. Surface properties were influenced: an acidic pH led to a greater alteration, except for polyacid-modified resin composites. The pH of the demineralizing solution influenced fluoride release from the tested materials. The pH variation altered hardness and surface properties of glass ionomer cements but did not influence polyacid-modified resin composites.