Einsatz von rückgekoppelten mehrstufigen selbstorganisierenden Karten in der Windenergie Leistungsprognose

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Verfahren zum Einsatz neuronaler Netzwerke vorgestellt, das auf iterative Weise Klassifikation und Prognoseschritte mit dem Ziel kombiniert, bessere Ergebnisse der Prognose im Vergleich zu einer einmaligen hintereinander Ausführung dieser Schritte zu erreichen. Dieses Verfahren wird am Beispiel der Prognose der Windstromerzeugung abhängig von der Wettersituation erörtert. Eine Verbesserung wird in diesem Rahmen mit einzelnen Ausreißern erreicht. Verschiedene Aspekte werden in drei Kapiteln diskutiert: In Kapitel 1 werden die verwendeten Daten und ihre elektronische Verarbeitung vorgestellt. Die Daten bestehen zum einen aus Windleistungshochrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland der Jahre 2011 und 2012, welche als Transparenzanforderung des Erneuerbaren Energiegesetzes durch die Übertragungsnetzbetreiber publiziert werden müssen. Zum anderen werden Wetterprognosen, die der Deutsche Wetterdienst im Rahmen der Grundversorgung kostenlos bereitstellt, verwendet. Kapitel 2 erläutert zwei aus der Literatur bekannte Verfahren - Online- und Batchalgorithmus - zum Training einer selbstorganisierenden Karte. Aus den dargelegten Verfahrenseigenschaften begründet sich die Wahl des Batchverfahrens für die in Kapitel 3 erläuterte Methode. Das in Kapitel 3 vorgestellte Verfahren hat im modellierten operativen Einsatz den gleichen Ablauf, wie eine Klassifikation mit anschließender klassenspezifischer Prognose. Bei dem Training des Verfahrens wird allerdings iterativ vorgegangen, indem im Anschluss an das Training der klassenspezifischen Prognose ermittelt wird, zu welcher Klasse der Klassifikation ein Eingabedatum gehören sollte, um mit den vorliegenden klassenspezifischen Prognosemodellen die höchste Prognosegüte zu erzielen. Die so gewonnene Einteilung der Eingaben kann genutzt werden, um wiederum eine neue Klassifikationsstufe zu trainieren, deren Klassen eine verbesserte klassenspezifisch Prognose ermöglichen.

La tecnología del hidrógeno, una oportunidad estratégica para la perdurabilidad del sector energético en Colombia

El incremento de la actividad humana en el último siglo y el desarrollo de tecnologías ligadas con el petróleo como vector energético, han generado efectos medioambientales adversos que aunados con las limitadas reservas mundiales de crudo y su estrecha relación con el crecimiento económico mundial ha generado presiones economías, políticas y sociales en todos los países. Esta situación ha dinamizado la investigación y desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías basadas en el hidrogeno como un nuevo vector energético tecnológicamente compatible que permita la portabilidad de energía con el menor impacto ambiental y económico a la luz de la prospectiva de consumo y la perdurabilidad energética. Este trabajo identifica las experiencias más relevantes respecto a la tecnología del hidrogeno a nivel mundial con el fin de consolidar un plan estratégico para la incorporación del hidrógeno como vector energético al portafolio productivo colombiano mediante la aplicación de un modelo que permite el análisis del nivel de integración de los sectores educativo, empresarial y gubernamental, teniendo como base los resultados del análisis estructural y análisis de actores.

Análisis y diseño para la construcción de un plan estratégico de manejo eficiente de energía en la Universidad del Rosario

De acuerdo con el Programa de la Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA), la producción más limpia «es una estrategia ambiental preventiva integrada que se aplica a los procesos, productos y servicios a fin de aumentar la eficiencia y reducir los riesgos para los seres humanos y el ambiente.» (Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA), 2006) Esta estrategia es aplicable para cualquier proceso, producto o servicio y contiene diversas acciones que incluyen sencillos pasos que van desde pequeños cambios en los procedimientos operacionales de fácil e inmediata ejecución, hasta cambios mayores que impliquen la sustitución de materias primas, insumos o líneas de producción a unas más eficientes. De acuerdo con la investigación realizada, se formuló un plan estratégico de PML para la Universidad del Rosario que permita la conservación de las materias primas, como el agua y el manejo energético eficiente, la reducción de las materias primas toxicas, en cuanto a toxicidad y cantidad, y la reducción de emisiones y residuos que van al agua y a la atmósfera impactando el entorno a causa de los procesos que se desarrollan en la Universidad para la prestación de sus servicios. En este orden de ideas, la Producción más Limpia implementada en la Universidad requiere que se modifiquen ciertas actitudes, el desarrollo de una gestión ambiental responsable, la creación de políticas convenientes y la evaluación de nuevas opciones tecnologías que impacten de manera positiva su implementación a través de las siguientes técnicas: • Mejoras en el proceso • Buenas prácticas operativas • Mantenimiento de equipos • Reutilización y reciclaje • Cambios en la materia prima • Cambios en la tecnología De esta manera los resultados presentarán un modelo transformador para la Institución, que permita su perdurabilidad, convirtiéndola en una Universidad pionera capaz de disminuir su impacto de operaciones en la sociedad.

Análisis de la incidencia de la producción de biocombustibles a través de cultivos transgénicos en la seguridad alimentaria. Estudio de caso: Cultivos de soja transgénica en Argentina

La búsqueda de los Estados por mitigar su dependencia energética de las fuentes fósiles, ha traído consigo la búsqueda de energías alternativas, desencadenando en el uso y producción de biocombustibles. A su vez, la producción de estos últimos a través de cultivos transgénicos ha ido cobrando importancia en el escenario internacional. Esta opción se ha considerado como una salida al dilema de utilización de tierras "Biocombustible vs. Alimentos". En este contexto, el caso de Argentina, como uno de los mayores productores de cultivos transgénicos del mundo, entre los cuales se destaca la soja, se analiza en esta investigación por ser importante para determinar cuál es el impacto de los biocombustibles producidos a través de cultivos transgénicos en la seguridad alimentaria de la población.

Productivity growth in electric energy retail in Colombia. A bootstrapped malmquist indices approach

This paper offers a productivity growth estimate for electric energy commercialization firms in Colombia, using a non-parametric Malmquist bootstrap methodology. The estimation and methodology serve two main purposes. First, in Colombia Commercialization firms are subject to a price-cap regulation scheme, a non-common arrangement in the international experience for this part of the industry. Therefore the paper’s result suggest an estimate of the productivity factor to be used by the regulator, not only in Colombia but in other countries where commercialization is a growing part of the industry (renewable energy, for instance). Second, because of poor data collection from regulators and firms themselves, regulation based on a single estimation of productivity seems inappropriate and error-prone. The nonparametric Malmquist bootstrap estimation allows an assessment of the result in contrast to a single one estimation. This would open an opportunity for the regulator to adopt a narrower and more accurate productivity estimation or override an implausible result and impose a productivity factor in the price-cap to foster the development of the industry.

Evaluación de la biomasa como recurso energético renovable en Cataluña

El objetivo principal es la evaluación de la biomasa como recurso energético renovable en Cataluña. Su alcance requiere el estudio de diversas temáticas, desarrolladas en los doce capítulos que componen el documento.El Capítulo 1 describe los objetivos de la tesis. El Capítulo 2 describe los motivos que justifican la valorización energética del recurso biomasa. El Capítulo 3 presenta la metodología general utilizada. El Capítulo 4 realiza un análisis multicriterio del aprovechamiento energético de biomasa forestal. El Capítulo 5 cuantifica la biomasa disponible para usos energéticos en Cataluña. Los Capítulos 6, 7, 8 y 9 analizan las tecnologías y la viabilidad de la producción de energía con colza y chopo. El Capítulo 10 caracteriza físico-químicamente la biomasa de colza como combustible complementario al actual uso del grano para biodiesel. El Capítulo 11 evalua el uso de cultivos para la producción de productos químicos. El Capítulo 12 resume las Conclusiones generales.

Aerosorgailu palen aplikazioetarako pvc espumaren degradazio termiko eta propietate mekanikoen karakterizazioa

[EU]Energia berriztagarria iturri naturaletatik sortzen den energia mota da. Energia lortzeko erabiltzen diren baliabide naturalak asko dira, eguzki-energia, haizea, ura… Energia berriztagarrien artean, eolikoa da zabalkunde handien lortu duena; batez ere ingurumen-inpaktu urriagatik eta bere kostuak gero eta txikiagoak izateagatik. Honen ondorioz, energia garbi, lehiakor eta ekonomikoki bideragarria da gaur egun. Hala ere, aerosorgailu hauen ekoizpen prozesuak desabantaila nabaria aurkezten du palen ontze prozesuan. Tenperatura igoeraren ondorioz material konkretu baten degradazioa dela eta. Ikerketa lan honetan, aerosorgailu palen karakterizazioa egingo da eta ontze prozesuan, “polikloruro de binilo” (PVC)-ak jasaten duen degradazioaren azterketa.

Bahrain's Formula-1 racing circuit: energy and environmental considerations

The Bahrain International Circuit (BIC) and complex, at latitude 26.00N and longitude 51.54E, was built in 483 days and cost 150 million US$. The circuit consists of six different individual tracks with a 3.66 km outer track (involving 10 turns) and a 2.55 km inner track (having six turns). The complex has been designed to host a variety of other sporting activities. Fifty thousand spectators, including 10,500 in the main grandstand, can be accommodated simultaneously. State-of-the art on-site media and broadcast facilities are available. The noise level emitted from vehicles on the circuit during the Formula-1 event, on April 4th 2004, was acceptable and caused no physical disturbance to the fans in the VIP lounges or to scholars studying at the University of Bahrain's Shakeir Campus, which is only 1.5 km away from the circuit. The sound-intensity level (SIL) recorded on the balcony of the VIP lounge was 128 dB(A) and was 80 dB(A) inside the lounge. The calculated SIL immediately outside the lecture halls of the University of Bahrain was 70 dB(A) and 65 dB(A) within them. Thus racing at BIC can proceed without significantly disturbing the academic-learning process. The purchased electricity demand by the BIC complex peaked (at 4.5 MW) during the first Formula-1 event on April 4th 2004. The reverse-osmosis (RO) plant at the BIC provides 1000 m(3) of desalinated water per day for landscape irrigation. Renewable-energy inputs, (i.e., via solar and wind power), at the BIC could be harnessed to generate electricity for water desalination, air conditioning, lighting as well as for irrigation. If the covering of the BIC complex was covered by adhesively fixed modern photovoltaic cells, then similar to 1.2 MW of solar electricity could be generated. If two horizontal-axis, at 150 m height above the ground, three 75m bladed, wind turbines were to be installed at the BIC, then the output could reach 4 MW. Furthermore, if 10,000 Jojoba trees (a species renowned for having a low demand for water, needing only five irrigations per year in Bahrain and which remain green throughout the year) are planted near the circuit, then the local micro-climate would be improved with respect to human comfort as well as the local environment becoming cleaner.

Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

Urbanisation and its impact on building energy consumption and efficiency in China

The People's Republic of China and its 1.3 billion people have experienced a rapid economic growth in the past two decades. China's urbanisation ratio rose from around 20% in the early 1980s to 45% in 2007 [China Urban Research Committee. Green building. Beijing: Chinese Construction Industrial Publish House; 2008. ISBN 978-7-112-09925-2.]. The large volume and rapid speed of building construction rarely have been seen in global development and cause substantial pressure on resources and the environment. Government policy makers and building professionals, including architects, building engineers, project managers and property developers, should play an important role in enhancing the planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance of the building energy efficiency process in forming the sustainable urban development. This paper addresses the emerging issues relating to building energy consumption and building energy efficiency due to the fast urbanisation development in China.

Bio-energy retains its mitigation potential under elevated CO2

Background If biofuels are to be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, it is essential that they retain their potential to mitigate climate change under future atmospheric conditions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] stimulates plant biomass production; however, the beneficial effects of increased production may be offset by higher energy costs in crop management. Methodology/Main findings We maintained full size poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) systems under both current ambient and future elevated [CO2] (550 ppm) and estimated their net energy and greenhouse gas balance. We show that a poplar SRC system is energy efficient and produces more energy than required for coppice management. Even more, elevated [CO2] will increase the net energy production and greenhouse gas balance of a SRC system with 18%. Managing the trees in shorter rotation cycles (i.e. 2 year cycles instead of 3 year cycles) will further enhance the benefits from elevated [CO2] on both the net energy and greenhouse gas balance. Conclusions/significance Adapting coppice management to the future atmospheric [CO2] is necessary to fully benefit from the climate mitigation potential of bio-energy systems. Further, a future increase in potential biomass production due to elevated [CO2] outweighs the increased production costs resulting in a northward extension of the area where SRC is greenhouse gas neutral. Currently, the main part of the European terrestrial carbon sink is found in forest biomass and attributed to harvesting less than the annual growth in wood. Because SRC is intensively managed, with a higher turnover in wood production than conventional forest, northward expansion of SRC is likely to erode the European terrestrial carbon sink.

A method of formulating energy load profile for domestic buildings in the UK

There are varieties of physical and behavioral factors to determine energy demand load profile. The attainment of the optimum mix of measures and renewable energy system deployment requires a simple method suitable for using at the early design stage. A simple method of formulating load profile (SMLP) for UK domestic buildings has been presented in this paper. Domestic space heating load profile for different types of houses have been produced using thermal dynamic model which has been developed using thermal resistant network method. The daily breakdown energy demand load profile of appliance, domestic hot water and space heating can be predicted using this method. The method can produce daily load profile from individual house to urban community. It is suitable to be used at Renewable energy system strategic design stage.

Energy policy and standard for built environment in China

Trends in China's energy future will have considerable consequences for both China and the global environment. Though China's carbon emissions are low on a per capita basis, China is already ranked the world's second largest producer of carbon, behind only America. China's buildings sector currently accounts for 23% of China's total energy use and is projected to increase to one-third by 2010. Energy policy plays an important role in China's sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to provide a broad overview of energy efficiency issues in the built environment in China. This paper, firstly briefly, reviews the key national policies related to the built environment and demonstrates the government's environmental concern. Secondly, the authors introduce recent energy policies in the built environment. Energy efficiency and renewable energy in the built environment, which are the key issues of the national energy policy, have been reviewed. Discussion of the implementation of energy policy has been carried out.

Public values and community energy: lessons from the US and UK

This paper examines some of the normative aspects of community energy programmes — defined here as decentralized forms of energy production and distributed energy technologies where production decisions are made as close as possible to sources of consumption. Such projects might also display a degree of separation from the formal political process. The development of a community energy system often generates a great deal of debate about both the degree of public support for such programmes and the values around which programmes ought to be organized. Community energy programmes also raise important issues regarding the energy choice problem, including questions of process, that is, by whom a project is developed and the influence of both community and exogenous actors, as well as certain outcome issues regarding the spatial and social distribution of energy. The case studies, drawn from community energy programmes in both the United States and the United Kingdom, allow for a careful examination of all of these factors, considering in particular the complex interplay and juxtaposition between the ideas of 'public value' and 'public values'.