Estudo de modelos simplificados com interações de longo alcance no ensemble microcanônico

Tese (doutorado)Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Física, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Física, 2015.

Time-trends in infant mortality rates in the southern Europe

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has been considered an important health indicator in monitoring quality of health care. Objectives: To examine trends in IMR in Southern Europe (SE) over the last two decades. Methods: Number of live births and infant deaths reported for SE (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) between 1990 and 2013 were abstracted from World Health Organization Database. Annual IMR per 1,000 live births was computed for each country and for SE as a whole. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) in IMR and respective 95% Conidence Interval (95% CI) and to identify points in time when signiicant changes in trend occurred (joinpoints). Results: Between 1990 and 2013, IMR signiicantly decreased from 9.2 to 3.4 in SE and the highest decrease was observed from 1992 to 1998 (AAPC = -6.1%; 95%CI: -6.5%; -5.8%). Signiicant decline in IMR was observed in all countries but the pattern was different across countries. IMR varied across countries between 11.5 and 8.3 and between 3.1 and 3.8 in 2013; highest IMR were observed in Portugal for 1990 and in Greece for 2013. Most notable decreases in IMR were observed from 1990 to 1995 in Portugal (AAPC = -8.4% 95%CI: -8.8; -8.1), from 1993 to 1997 in Italy (AAPC = -6.6% 95%CI: -7.8; -5.5) from 1998 to 2006 in Greece (AAPC = -6.8% 95%CI: -7.0; -6.5), and from 1993 to 1996 in Spain (AAPC = -7.3% 95%CI: -9.0; -5.6). Decreases in IMR were signiicant during all time period in Italy and Greece but in Portugal and Spain IMR became unchangeable after 2010-2011. Conclusions: Decrease in IMR in countries of SE suggests steadily improvement in the quality of health care. However differences in the pattern of decrease across countries during the last years deserve particular attention.

Mesh Adaption for Tracking Vortex Structures in OVERTURNS Simulation of the S-76 Rotor in Hover

The constant need to improve helicopter performance requires the optimization of existing and future rotor designs. A crucial indicator of rotor capability is hover performance, which depends on the near-body flow as well as the structure and strength of the tip vortices formed at the trailing edge of the blades. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers must balance computational expenses with preservation of the flow, and to limit computational expenses the mesh is often coarsened in the outer regions of the computational domain. This can lead to degradation of the vortex structures which compose the rotor wake. The current work conducts three-dimensional simulations using OVERTURNS, a three-dimensional structured grid solver that models the flow field using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The S-76 rotor in hover was chosen as the test case for evaluating the OVERTURNS solver, focusing on methods to better preserve the rotor wake. Using the hover condition, various computational domains, spatial schemes, and boundary conditions were tested. Furthermore, a mesh adaption routine was implemented, allowing for the increased refinement of the mesh in areas of turbulent flow without the need to add points to the mesh. The adapted mesh was employed to conduct a sweep of collective pitch angles, comparing the resolved wake and integrated forces to existing computational and experimental results. The integrated thrust values saw very close agreement across all tested pitch angles, while the power was slightly over predicted, resulting in under prediction of the Figure of Merit. Meanwhile, the tip vortices have been preserved for multiple blade passages, indicating an improvement in vortex preservation when compared with previous work. Finally, further results from a single collective pitch case were presented to provide a more complete picture of the solver results.

Formulação de massas cerâmicas para porcelanas elétricas utilizando resíduos oriundos de corpos de fusíveis

The power industry generates as waste ceramic bodies of electrical fuses that are discarded after use. The formulation of ceramic bodies for porcelain electrical insulators using waste from the bodies fuse allocation promotes environmentally appropriate, through the reuse of the material. This work evaluated the technical feasibility of using waste for use in electrical porcelains with formulations containing the residue, feldspar and kaolinite. The raw materials were processed through grinding and sieving to 200 mesh. The ceramic material obtained from the proposed formulations with 25%, 30%, 34% and 40% of the residue went through a vibratory mill for grinding and homogenization, and then were sieved at 325 mesh. The samples were shaped in a uniaxial press, with the application of 25 MPa and sintered at 1100° C, 1150°C, 1200°C, 1225°C and 1250°C, at levels of 20 and 45 minutes. Were also developed bodies of evidence with reference formulations obtained without residue, to establish a comparison on physical, mechanical and electrical. The tests were conducted and technology: linear shrinkage, porosity, water absorption, resistance to bending to three points, measuring insulation resistance electrical resistivity of the material, X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescence Waste characterizations pointed to the existence of two phases: mullite and quartz phases are of great importance in the microstructure of the ceramic and this fact reveals a possibility for reuse in electrical porcelains. The mullite is an important constituent because it is a phase that makes it possible to increase the mechanical strength in addition to the body allows the use at high temperatures. The use of ceramic bodies residue fuses, proved feasible for application in electrical porcelain and the most significant results were obtained by the formulations with 25% waste and sintering at 1200°C

Kinematics and Local Motion Planning for Quasi-static Whole-body Mobile Manipulation

This thesis studies mobile robotic manipulators, where one or more robot manipulator arms are integrated with a mobile robotic base. The base could be a wheeled or tracked vehicle, or it might be a multi-limbed locomotor. As robots are increasingly deployed in complex and unstructured environments, the need for mobile manipulation increases. Mobile robotic assistants have the potential to revolutionize human lives in a large variety of settings including home, industrial and outdoor environments.

Mobile Manipulation is the use or study of such mobile robots as they interact with physical objects in their environment. As compared to fixed base manipulators, mobile manipulators can take advantage of the base mechanism’s added degrees of freedom in the task planning and execution process. But their use also poses new problems in the analysis and control of base system stability, and the planning of coordinated base and arm motions. For mobile manipulators to be successfully and efficiently used, a thorough understanding of their kinematics, stability, and capabilities is required. Moreover, because mobile manipulators typically possess a large number of actuators, new and efficient methods to coordinate their large numbers of degrees of freedom are needed to make them practically deployable. This thesis develops new kinematic and stability analyses of mobile manipulation, and new algorithms to efficiently plan their motions.

I first develop detailed and novel descriptions of the kinematics governing the operation of multi- limbed legged robots working in the presence of gravity, and whose limbs may also be simultaneously used for manipulation. The fundamental stance constraint that arises from simple assumptions about friction and the ground contact and feasible motions is derived. Thereafter, a local relationship between joint motions and motions of the robot abdomen and reaching limbs is developed. Baseeon these relationships, one can define and analyze local kinematic qualities including limberness, wrench resistance and local dexterity. While previous researchers have noted the similarity between multi- fingered grasping and quasi-static manipulation, this thesis makes explicit connections between these two problems.

The kinematic expressions form the basis for a local motion planning problem that that determines the joint motions to achieve several simultaneous objectives while maintaining stance stability in the presence of gravity. This problem is translated into a convex quadratic program entitled the balanced priority solution, whose existence and uniqueness properties are developed. This problem is related in spirit to the classical redundancy resoxlution and task-priority approaches. With some simple modifications, this local planning and optimization problem can be extended to handle a large variety of goals and constraints that arise in mobile-manipulation. This local planning problem applies readily to other mobile bases including wheeled and articulated bases. This thesis describes the use of the local planning techniques to generate global plans, as well as for use within a feedback loop. The work in this thesis is motivated in part by many practical tasks involving the Surrogate and RoboSimian robots at NASA/JPL, and a large number of examples involving the two robots, both real and simulated, are provided.

Finally, this thesis provides an analysis of simultaneous force and motion control for multi- limbed legged robots. Starting with a classical linear stiffness relationship, an analysis of this problem for multiple point contacts is described. The local velocity planning problem is extended to include generation of forces, as well as to maintain stability using force-feedback. This thesis also provides a concise, novel definition of static stability, and proves some conditions under which it is satisfied.

The influence of nursing student characteristics on performance in the Quebec licensing exam.

This study examines whether certain academic, demographic or psychosocial characteristics of students can be indicators of future success on the Provincial Nursing Licensing exam. A cohort of 42 third year Nursing students was the study sample. Data were collected using a self-reporting questionnaire, academic marks, and graduate interviews. Academic variables that were studied included: first year nursing marks, college biology marks, final year nursing marks, and literacy level. Demographic variables that were studied included : age, gender, socioeconomic status and level of life responsabilities, academic motivation (hours spent studying) and hours worked at unrelated employment. Lastly, psychosocial variables that were studied included: test taking anxiety, stress and overall confidence level in terms of success on the upcoming exam. A comparison was then undertaken between the two groups-students that passed and students that failed the Licensing exam on their first sitting-with respect to specific student characteristics. The conceptual framework for this study is based on Leinbach and Jenkin's model of the correlation of milestones to momentum points in the educational experience. Results of this study suggest that exam anxiety and content review in the months that follow graduation seem to affect exam performance. Also, certain demographic characteristics such as age and financial strain seemed to be good indicators of future success.||Résumé : Cette étude tente d'établir si certaines caractéristiques liées aux études ainsi que des caractéristiques démographiques ou psychosociales des étudiantes et des étudiants peuvent être indicatives du succès futur à l'examen professionnel provincial d'admission à la profession infirmière. Une cohorte de 42 étudiantes et étudiants de troisième année en sciences infirmières formait l'échantillon de l'étude. Les données ont été recueillies au moyen d'un questionnaire d'autoévaluation, des résultats scolaires et d'entrevues avec les infirmières et infirmiers gradués. Les variables liées aux études examinées ont été les résultats de la première année d'études en sciences infirmières, les résultats en biologie au collégial, les résultats de la dernière année d'études en sciences infirmières et le niveau de littératie. Les variables démographiques étudiées ont été l'âge, le sexe, le statut socioéconomique, le niveau de responsabilités sociales, la motivation dans les études (les heures passées à étudier) et les heures consacrées à un travail non lié aux études. Enfin, les variables psychosociales examinées ont été l'anxiété devant l'examen, le stress et le niveau général de confiance quant à la réussite de l'examen à venir. Une comparaison des deux groupes d'étudiantes et d'étudiants, soit ceux qui ont réussi l'examen et ceux qui l'ont échoué à leur première tentative, a ensuite été faite en tenant compte des caractéristiques particulières à chacun. Le cadre conceptuel de cette étude repose sur le modèle de la corrélation entre les jalons (milestones) et les accomplissements (momentum points) dans l'expérience des études de Leinbach and Jenkin. Les résultats de cette étude laissent entendre que l'anxiété devant l'examen et la révision de la matière dans les mois suivant l'obtention du diplôme semblent avoir un effet sur le rendement à l'examen. Aussi, certaines caractéristiques démographiques comme l'âge et les difficultés financières semblaient être indicatifs du succès futur.

Topics in climate change risk

In this Thesis, we analyze how climate risk impacts economic players and its consequences on the financial markets. Essentially, literature unravels two main channels through which climate change poses risks to the status quo, namely physical and transitional risk, that we cover in three works. Firstly, the call for a global shift to a net-zero economy implicitly devalues assets that contribute to global warming that regulators are forcing to dismiss. On the other hand, abnormal changes in the temperatures as well as weather-related events challenge the environmental equilibrium and could directly affect operations as well as profitability. We start the analysis with the physical component, by presenting a statistical measure that generally represents shocks to the distribution of temperature anomalies. We oppose this statistic to classical physical measures and assess that it is the driver of the electricity consumption, in the weather derivatives market, and in the cross-section of equity returns. We find two transmission channels, namely investor attention, and firm operations. We then analyze the transition risk component, by associating a regulatory horizon characterization to fixed income valuation. We disentangle a risk driver for corporate bond overperformance that is tight to change in credit riskiness. After controlling a statistical learning algorithm to forecast excess returns, we include carbon emission metrics without clear evidence. Finally, we analyze the effects of change in carbon emission on a regulated market such as the EU ETS by selecting utility sector corporate bond and, after controlling for the possible risk factor, we document how a firm’s carbon profile differently affects the term structure of credit riskiness.

"Ancestry, gender and language - The role of culture in economic development"

This thesis is a combination of research questions in development economics and economics of culture, with an emphasis on the role of ancestry, gender and language policies in shaping inequality of opportunities and socio-economic outcomes across different segments of a society. The first chapter shows both theoretically and empirically that heterogeneity in risk attitudes can be traced to the ethnic origins and ancestral way of living. In particular, I construct a measure of historical nomadism at the ethnicity level and link it to contemporary individual-level data on various proxies of risk attitudes. I exploit exogenous variation in biodiversity to build a novel instrument for nomadism: distance to domestication points. I find that descendants of ethnic groups that historically practiced nomadism (i) are more willing to take risks, (ii) value security less, and (iii) have riskier health behavior. The second chapter evaluates the nature of a trade-off between the advantages of female labor participation and the positive effects of female education. This work exploits a triple difference identification strategy relying on exogenous spike in cotton price and spatial variation in suitability for cotton, and split sample analyses based on the exogenous allocation of land contracts. Results show that gender differences in parental investments in patriarchal societies can be reinforced by the type of agricultural activity, while positive economic shocks may further exacerbate this bias, additionally crowding out higher possibilities to invest in female education. The third chapter brings novel evidence of the role of the language policy in building national sentiments, affecting educational and occupational choices. Here I focus on the case of Uzbekistan and estimate the effects of exposure to the Latin alphabet on informational literacy, education and career choices. I show that alphabet change affects people's informational literacy and the formation of certain educational and labour market trends.

Network analysis and machine learning assist drug repurposing and safety assessment in neurological diseases

In recent decades, two prominent trends have influenced the data modeling field, namely network analysis and machine learning. This thesis explores the practical applications of these techniques within the domain of drug research, unveiling their multifaceted potential for advancing our comprehension of complex biological systems. The research undertaken during this PhD program is situated at the intersection of network theory, computational methods, and drug research. Across six projects presented herein, there is a gradual increase in model complexity. These projects traverse a diverse range of topics, with a specific emphasis on drug repurposing and safety in the context of neurological diseases. The aim of these projects is to leverage existing biomedical knowledge to develop innovative approaches that bolster drug research. The investigations have produced practical solutions, not only providing insights into the intricacies of biological systems, but also allowing the creation of valuable tools for their analysis. In short, the achievements are: • A novel computational algorithm to identify adverse events specific to fixed-dose drug combinations. • A web application that tracks the clinical drug research response to SARS-CoV-2. • A Python package for differential gene expression analysis and the identification of key regulatory "switch genes". • The identification of pivotal events causing drug-induced impulse control disorders linked to specific medications. • An automated pipeline for discovering potential drug repurposing opportunities. • The creation of a comprehensive knowledge graph and development of a graph machine learning model for predictions. Collectively, these projects illustrate diverse applications of data science and network-based methodologies, highlighting the profound impact they can have in supporting drug research activities.

An algorithmic approach to estimating the minimal number of periodic points for smooth self-maps of simply-connected manifolds

For a given self-map f of M, a closed smooth connected and simply-connected manifold of dimension m ≥ 4, we provide an algorithm for estimating the values of the topological invariant Dm r [f], which equals the minimal number of r-periodic points in the smooth homotopy class of f. Our results are based on the combinatorial scheme for computing Dm r [f] introduced by G. Graff and J. Jezierski [J. Fixed Point Theory Appl. 13 (2013), 63–84]. An open-source implementation of the algorithm programmed in C++ is publicly available at http://www.pawelpilarczyk.com/combtop/.

The effect of counterpoise correction and relaxation energy term to the internal rotation barriers: application to the BF3 ...NH3 and C2H4 ...SO2 dimers

The relevance of the fragment relaxation energy term and the effect of the basis set superposition error on the geometry of the BF3⋯NH3 and C2H4⋯SO2 van der Waals dimers have been analyzed. Second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory calculations with the d95(d,p) basis set have been used to calculate the counterpoise-corrected barrier height for the internal rotations. These barriers have been obtained by relocating the stationary points on the counterpoise-corrected potential energy surface of the processes involved. The fragment relaxation energy can have a large influence on both the intermolecular parameters and barrier height. The counterpoise correction has proved to be important for these systems

The effect of counterpoise correction and relaxation energy term to the internal rotation barriers: application to the BF3 ...NH3 and C2H4 ...SO2 dimers

The relevance of the fragment relaxation energy term and the effect of the basis set superposition error on the geometry of the BF3⋯NH3 and C2H4⋯SO2 van der Waals dimers have been analyzed. Second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory calculations with the d95(d,p) basis set have been used to calculate the counterpoise-corrected barrier height for the internal rotations. These barriers have been obtained by relocating the stationary points on the counterpoise-corrected potential energy surface of the processes involved. The fragment relaxation energy can have a large influence on both the intermolecular parameters and barrier height. The counterpoise correction has proved to be important for these systems

The trasition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes: the case of Brazil

This dissertation evaluates macroeconomic management in Brazil from 1994 to the present, with particular focus on exchange rate policy. It points out that while Brazil's Real Plan succeeded in halting the hyperinflation that had reached more than 2000 percent in 1993, it also caused significant real appreciation of the exchange rate situation that was only made worse by the extremely high interest rates and ensuing bout of severe financial crises in the intemational arena. By the end of 1998, the accumulation of internai and externai imbalances led the authorities to drop foreign exchange controls and allow the currency to float. In spite of some initial scepticism, the flexible rate regime cum inflation target proved to work well. Inflation was kept under control; the current account position improved significantly, real interest rates fell and GDP growth resumed. Thus, while great challenges still lie ahead, the recent successes bestow some optimism on the well functioning of this exchange rate regime. The Brazilian case suggests that successful transition from one foreign exchange system to another, particularly during financial crisis, does not depend only on one variable be it fiscal or monetary. In reality, it depends on whole set of co-ordinated policies aimed at resuming price stability with as little exchange rate and output volatility as possible.

Relaxation of Adaptive Evolution during the HIV-1 Infection Owing to Reduction of CD4+T Cell Counts

Background: The first stages of HIV-1 infection are essential to establish the diversity of virus population within host. It has been suggested that adaptation to host cells and antibody evasion are the leading forces driving HIV evolution at the initial stages of AIDS infection. In order to gain more insights on adaptive HIV-1 evolution, the genetic diversity was evaluated during the infection time in individuals contaminated by the same viral source in an epidemic cluster. Multiple sequences of V3 loop region of the HIV-1 were serially sampled from four individuals: comprising a single blood donor, two blood recipients, and another sexually infected by one of the blood recipients. The diversity of the viral population within each host was analyzed independently in distinct time points during HIV-1 infection. Results: Phylogenetic analysis identified multiple HIV-1 variants transmitted through blood transfusion but the establishing of new infections was initiated by a limited number of viruses. Positive selection (d(N)/d(S)>1) was detected in the viruses within each host in all time points. In the intra-host viruses of the blood donor and of one blood recipient, X4 variants appeared respectively in 1993 and 1989. In both patients X4 variants never reached high frequencies during infection time. The recipient, who X4 variants appeared, developed AIDS but kept narrow and constant immune response against HIV-1 during the infection time. Conclusion: Slowing rates of adaptive evolution and increasing diversity in HIV-1 are consequences of the CD4+ T cells depletion. The dynamic of R5 to X4 shift is not associated with the initial amplitude of humoral immune response or intensity of positive selection.

Curve Decomposition for Large Deflection Analysis of Fixed-Guided Beams With Application to Statically Balanced Compliant Mechanisms

Statically balanced compliant mechanisms require no holding force throughout their range of motion while maintaining the advantages of compliant mechanisms. In this paper, a postbuckled fixed-guided beam is proposed to provide the negative stiffness to balance the positive stiffness of a compliant mechanism. To that end, a curve decomposition modeling method is presented to simplify the large deflection analysis. The modeling method facilitates parametric design insight and elucidates key points on the force-deflection curve. Experimental results validate the analysis. Furthermore, static balancing with fixed-guided beams is demonstrated for a rectilinear proof-of-concept prototype.