On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

Alcohol may not cause partner violence but it seems to make it worse: a cross national comparison of the relationship between alcohol and severity of partner violence.

This study assesses whether severity of physical partner aggression is associated with alcohol consumption at the time of the incident, and whether the relationship between drinking and aggression severity is the same for men and women and across different countries. National or large regional general population surveys were conducted in 13 countries as part of the GENACIS collaboration. Respondents described the most physically aggressive act done to them by a partner in the past 2 years, rated the severity of aggression on a scale of 1 to 10, and reported whether either partner had been drinking when the incident occurred. Severity ratings were significantly higher for incidents in which one or both partners had been drinking compared to incidents in which neither partner had been drinking. The relationship did not differ significantly for men and women or by country. We conclude that alcohol consumption may serve to potentiate violence when it occurs, and this pattern holds across a diverse set of cultures. Further research is needed that focuses explicitly on the nature of alcohol's contribution to intimate partner aggression. Prevention needs to address the possibility of enhanced dangers of intimate partner violence when the partners have been drinking and eliminate any systemic factors that permit alcohol to be used as an excuse. Clinical services for perpetrators and victims of partner violence need to address the role of drinking practices, including the dynamics and process of aggressive incidents that occur when one or both partners have been drinking.

The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Fifth-order cyclicity and organic matter contents relationship (Lower Eocene, Pyrenees)

The Upper Limestone Member of the Corones Formation of the Spanish Pyrenees consists of various units (Lower and Upper Foraminifera Units, Shale Unit, Cherty-ostracode Unit, Ostracode Unit and Chara-ostracode Unit) and offers strong facies and lateral thickness (20 to 80 m) variations. Detailed facies analyses, fifth-order cycles and organic geochemical determinations in the central domain of the Corones platform carbonates (Cherty-ostracode Unit), lower Eocene in age, were carried out to establish a case of close relationship between variations in organic matter productivity and cyclicity with annual period. The Cherty-ostracode Unit displays a continuous and pervasive fifth-order cyclicity, represented by 5 cycles. Each cycle consists of a lower part (mollusc facies) and an upper part (laminated ostracode facies). The calculated fifth-order cycle period ranges from about 17,000 to 28,000 years, which falls within the Milankovitch Band. Variations in organic matter content related to these carbonate cycles have been established. The lower mollusc facies members show a low organic carbon content and Hydrogen Index (HI) below 0.6% in weight and 261, respectively. By contrast, the upper laminated ostracode facies members show high organic carbon contents (up to 2% in weight) and high HI (between 164 and 373), and are also characterized by important silicification processes (the content in chert is up to 30%). The organic geochemistry resulting from these organic rich levels reflects a contribution of algal marine input.

Adherence to and effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral treatment for HIV infection: assessing the bidirectional relationship.

BACKGROUND: It is well established that high adherence to HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is a major determinant of virological and immunologic success. Furthermore, psychosocial research has identified a wide range of adherence factors including patients' subjective beliefs about the effectiveness of HAART. Current statistical approaches, mainly based on the separate identification either of factors associated with treatment effectiveness or of those associated with adherence, fail to properly explore the true relationship between adherence and treatment effectiveness. Adherence behavior may be influenced not only by perceived benefits-which are usually the focus of related studies-but also by objective treatment benefits reflected in biological outcomes. METHODS: Our objective was to assess the bidirectional relationship between adherence and response to treatment among patients enrolled in the ANRS CO8 APROCO-COPILOTE study. We compared a conventional statistical approach based on the separate estimations of an adherence and an effectiveness equation to an econometric approach using a 2-equation simultaneous system based on the same 2 equations. RESULTS: Our results highlight a reciprocal relationship between adherence and treatment effectiveness. After controlling for endogeneity, adherence was positively associated with treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, CD4 count gain after baseline was found to have a positive significant effect on adherence at each observation period. This immunologic parameter was not significant when the adherence equation was estimated separately. In the 2-equation model, the covariances between disturbances of both equations were found to be significant, thus confirming the statistical appropriacy of studying adherence and treatment effectiveness jointly. CONCLUSIONS: Our results, which suggest that positive biological results arising as a result of high adherence levels, in turn reinforce continued adherence and strengthen the argument that patients who do not experience rapid improvement in their immunologic and clinical statuses after HAART initiation should be prioritized when developing adherence support interventions. Furthermore, they invalidate the hypothesis that HAART leads to "false reassurance" among HIV-infected patients.

Relationship between potassium fertilization and panicle blast severity in upland rice

The influence of K2O (0, 40, 80, 120 kg ha-1) at varying rates of N application (0, 30, 60 kg ha-1) at planting, on panicle blast (Pyricularia grisea (Cooke) Sacc.) was studied in a field experiment conducted during three consecutive years with the upland rice cultivar Douradão. Panicle blast severity decreased with increasing rates of potassium in the absence of nitrogen (N0). The relationship between panicle blast and K rates was quadratic at 30 kg ha-1 of nitrogen. Significant response to K fertilization was not obtained at 60 kg ha-1 of nitrogen in relation to panicle blast severity.

Having a good relationship with their mother: a protective factor against sexual risk behavior among adolescent females?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess whether having a good relationship with their mother was a protective factor against risky sexual behavior for female adolescents and whether it was independent of family structure. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of in-school adolescents aged 14-19 years. SETTING: Catalonia, in northeast Spain. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3677 females divided according on whether they had a good (n=3335) or a bad (n=342) relationship with their mother. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of sexual activity and sexual behavior. RESULTS: Adolescents in the good relationship group were significantly younger, more likely to live in an intact family, to have a good relationship with their father and siblings, and to talk about sexuality and their partner with their mother. They were also less likely to have ever had sexual intercourse. Among those sexually experienced, they were significantly older at first intercourse and less likely to have multiple partners or a history of STI. After adjusting for potential confounders, females in the good relationship group were less likely to be sexually active and to have had multiple partners, independently of family structure. CONCLUSIONS: Having a good relationship with their mother is a protective factor against sexual intercourse and having multiple sexual partners independently of family structure. Communication between generations and having a good relationship with their father and siblings also play an important role.

Quantifying the weight of fingerprint evidence through the spatial relationship, directions and types of minutiae observed on fingermarks

This paper presents a statistical model for the quantification of the weight of fingerprint evidence. Contrarily to previous models (generative and score-based models), our model proposes to estimate the probability distributions of spatial relationships, directions and types of minutiae observed on fingerprints for any given fingermark. Our model is relying on an AFIS algorithm provided by 3M Cogent and on a dataset of more than 4,000,000 fingerprints to represent a sample from a relevant population of potential sources. The performance of our model was tested using several hundreds of minutiae configurations observed on a set of 565 fingermarks. In particular, the effects of various sub-populations of fingers (i.e., finger number, finger general pattern) on the expected evidential value of our test configurations were investigated. The performance of our model indicates that the spatial relationship between minutiae carries more evidential weight than their type or direction. Our results also indicate that the AFIS component of our model directly enables us to assign weight to fingerprint evidence without the need for the additional layer of complex statistical modeling involved by the estimation of the probability distributions of fingerprint features. In fact, it seems that the AFIS component is more sensitive to the sub-population effects than the other components of the model. Overall, the data generated during this research project contributes to support the idea that fingerprint evidence is a valuable forensic tool for the identification of individuals.

Relationship between imaging biomarkers, age, progression and symptom severity in Alzheimer's disease.

The early diagnostic value of glucose hypometabolism and atrophy as potential neuroimaging biomarkers of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been extensively explored using [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The vast majority of previous imaging studies neglected the effects of single factors, such as age, symptom severity or time to conversion in MCI thus limiting generalisability of results across studies. Here, we investigated the impact of these factors on metabolic and structural differences. FDG-PET and MRI data from AD patients (n = 80), MCI converters (n = 65) and MCI non-converters (n = 64) were compared to data of healthy subjects (n = 79). All patient groups were split into subgroups by age, time to conversion (for MCI), or symptom severity and compared to the control group. AD patients showed a strongly age-dependent pattern, with younger patients showing significantly more extensive reductions in gray matter volume and glucose utilisation. In the MCI converter group, the amount of glucose utilisation reduction was linked to the time to conversion but not to atrophy. Our findings indicate that FDG-PET might be more closely linked to future cognitive decline whilst MRI being more closely related to the current cognitive state reflects potentially irreversible damage.

The influence of tobacco consumption on the relationship between schizotypy and hemispheric asymmetry.

Tobacco use is positively associated with severity of symptoms along the schizophrenia spectrum. Accordingly it could be argued that neuropsychological performance, formerly thought to be modulated by schizotypy, is actually modulated by drug use or an interaction of drug use and schizotypy. We tested whether habitual cigarette smokers as compared to non-smokers would show a neuropsychological profile similar to that observed along the schizophrenia spectrum and, if so, whether smoking status or nicotine dependence would be more significant modulators of behavior than schizotypy. Because hemispheric dominance has been found to be attenuated along the schizophrenia spectrum, 40 right-handed male students (20 non-smokers) performed lateralized left- (lexical decisions) and right- (facial decision task) hemisphere dominant tasks. All individuals completed self-report measures of schizotypy and nicotine dependence. Schizotypy predicted laterality in addition to smoking status: While positive schizotypy (Unusual Experiences) was unrelated to hemispheric performance, Cognitive Disorganization predicted reduced left hemisphere dominant language functions. These latter findings suggest that Cognitive Disorganization should be regarded separately as a potentially important mediator of thought disorganization and language processing. Additionally, increasing nicotine dependence among smokers predicted a right hemisphere shift of function in both tasks that supports the role of the right hemisphere in compulsive/impulsive behavior.

Relationship between empty seed and genetic factors in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

Abstract