Estimation of a Regression Function on a Point Process and its Application to Financial Ruin Risk Forecast

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G55; secondary 60G25.

An LP-based inconsistency monitoring of pairwise comparison matrices

A distance-based inconsistency indicator, defined by the third author for the consistency-driven pairwise comparisons method, is extended to the incomplete case. The corresponding optimization problem is transformed into an equivalent linear programming problem. The results can be applied in the process of filling in the matrix as the decision maker gets automatic feedback. As soon as a serious error occurs among the matrix elements, even due to a misprint, a significant increase in the inconsistency index is reported. The high inconsistency may be alarmed not only at the end of the process of filling in the matrix but also during the completion process. Numerical examples are also provided.

Parameter design considerations in precision engineering

Parameter design is an experimental design and analysis methodology for developing robust processes and products. Robustness implies insensitivity to noise disturbances. Subtle experimental realities, such as the joint effect of process knowledge and analysis methodology, may affect the effectiveness of parameter design in precision engineering; where the objective is to detect minute variation in product and process performance. In this thesis, approaches to statistical forced-noise design and analysis methodologies were investigated with respect to detecting performance variations. Given a low degree of process knowledge, Taguchi's methodology of signal-to-noise ratio analysis was found to be more suitable in detecting minute performance variations than the classical approach based on polynomial decomposition. Comparison of inner-array noise (IAN) and outer-array noise (OAN) structuring approaches showed that OAN is a more efficient design for precision engineering. ^

A case study: Perceptions of the induction process of intern principals in Broward County Public Schools

The case study is a qualitative study of the perceptions of a purposeful sample of intern principal participants in Broward County Public School's 2001-2003 principal leadership induction program through survey, interview and document analysis of their experiences concerning their success or failure in achieving the position of principal. The study focused on constructs of professional and organizational socialization and instructional leadership that research suggests are vital and integrated components of the effective development of aspiring instructional leaders. ^ The findings revealed that purposeful mentoring, a variety of site placement, hands on practical experiences, in addition to the quality of experience measured by the number of years prior experience are positively reported to affect the degrees of success perceived by intern principals. The study validated the interrelatedness of the three constructs professional and organizational socialization and instructional leadership as components that are realized in the development process through formal and informal characteristics of socialization. The data gathered would be of benefit to principal leadership program designers to assist in their understanding of participants' successes and failures that influence individual needs based on their experience as perceived by this group. ^ Implications for further study are the need for better understanding of leadership development, continued reinforcement of best practices such as mentoring, site shadowing and coaching, clarification of the administrator's role, data analysis, curriculum implementation and student achievement. Organizations need to implement a common set of expectations, reasoning, attitudes, and understanding of purpose that guide behaviors. Recommendations are to design leadership induction programs to meet individual strengths and weaknesses not a one-size-fits-all program including a constructive and prescriptive two-way feedback system, select and assign mentors based on their expertise and candidate needs, varied site placements, develop skills to build collaborative relationships, and a standards based monitoring and assessment system to document program mastery and completion. ^

Reduced-parameter model of head-related transfer functions for synthesized spatial audio

Digital systems can generate left and right audio channels that create the effect of virtual sound source placement (spatialization) by processing an audio signal through pairs of Head-Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs) or, equivalently, Head-Related Impulse Responses (HRIRs). The spatialization effect is better when individually-measured HRTFs or HRIRs are used than when generic ones (e.g., from a mannequin) are used. However, the measurement process is not available to the majority of users. There is ongoing interest to find mechanisms to customize HRTFs or HRIRs to a specific user, in order to achieve an improved spatialization effect for that subject. Unfortunately, the current models used for HRTFs and HRIRs contain over a hundred parameters and none of those parameters can be easily related to the characteristics of the subject. This dissertation proposes an alternative model for the representation of HRTFs, which contains at most 30 parameters, all of which have a defined functional significance. It also presents methods to obtain the value of parameters in the model to make it approximately equivalent to an individually-measured HRTF. This conversion is achieved by the systematic deconstruction of HRIR sequences through an augmented version of the Hankel Total Least Squares (HTLS) decomposition approach. An average 95% match (fit) was observed between the original HRIRs and those re-constructed from the Damped and Delayed Sinusoids (DDSs) found by the decomposition process, for ipsilateral source locations. The dissertation also introduces and evaluates an HRIR customization procedure, based on a multilinear model implemented through a 3-mode tensor, for mapping of anatomical data from the subjects to the HRIR sequences at different sound source locations. This model uses the Higher-Order Singular Value Decomposition (HOSVD) method to represent the HRIRs and is capable of generating customized HRIRs from easily attainable anatomical measurements of a new intended user of the system. Listening tests were performed to compare the spatialization performance of customized, generic and individually-measured HRIRs when they are used for synthesized spatial audio. Statistical analysis of the results confirms that the type of HRIRs used for spatialization is a significant factor in the spatialization success, with the customized HRIRs yielding better results than generic HRIRs.

Comprehensive process maps for synthesizing high density aluminum oxide-carbon nanotube coatings by plasma spraying for improved mechanical and wear properties

Plasma sprayed aluminum oxide ceramic coating is widely used due to its outstanding wear, corrosion, and thermal shock resistance. But porosity is the integral feature in the plasma sprayed coating which exponentially degrades its properties. In this study, process maps were developed to obtain Al2O3-CNT composite coatings with the highest density (i.e. lowest porosity) and improved mechanical and wear properties. Process map is defined as a set of relationships that correlates large number of plasma processing parameters to the coating properties. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) were added as reinforcement to Al2O 3 coating to improve the fracture toughness and wear resistance. Two novel powder processing approaches viz spray drying and chemical vapor growth were adopted to disperse CNTs in Al2O3 powder. The degree of CNT dispersion via chemical vapor deposition (CVD) was superior to spray drying but CVD could not synthesize powder in large amount. Hence optimization of plasma processing parameters and process map development was limited to spray dried Al2O3 powder containing 0, 4 and 8 wt. % CNTs. An empirical model using Pareto diagram was developed to link plasma processing parameters with the porosity of coating. Splat morphology as a function of plasma processing parameter was also studied to understand its effect on mechanical properties. Addition of a mere 1.5 wt. % CNTs via CVD technique showed ∼27% and ∼24% increase in the elastic modulus and fracture toughness respectively. Improved toughness was attributed to combined effect of lower porosity and uniform dispersion of CNTs which promoted the toughening by CNT bridging, crack deflection and strong CNT/Al2O3 interface. Al2O 3-8 wt. % CNT coating synthesized using spray dried powder showed 73% improvement in the fracture toughness when porosity reduced from 4.7% to 3.0%. Wear resistance of all coatings at room and elevated temperatures (573 K, 873 K) showed improvement with CNT addition and decreased porosity. Such behavior was due to improved mechanical properties, protective film formation due to tribochemical reaction, and CNT bridging between the splats. Finally, process maps correlating porosity content, CNT content, mechanical properties, and wear properties were developed.

A novel signal processing method for intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring in spinal surgeries

Intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring is an integral part of spinal surgeries and involves the recording of somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP). However, clinical application of IONM still requires anywhere between 200 to 2000 trials to obtain an SSEP signal, which is excessive and introduces a significant delay during surgery to detect a possible neurological damage. The aim of this study is to develop a means to obtain the SSEP using a much less, twelve number of recordings. The preliminary step involved was to distinguish the SSEP with the ongoing brain activity. We first establish that the brain activity is indeed quasi-stationary whereas an SSEP is expected to be identical every time a trial is recorded. An algorithm was developed using Chebychev time windowing for preconditioning of SSEP trials to retain the morphological characteristics of somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP). This preconditioning was followed by the application of a principal component analysis (PCA)-based algorithm utilizing quasi-stationarity of EEG on 12 preconditioned trials. A unique Walsh transform operation was then used to identify the position of the SSEP event. An alarm is raised when there is a 10% time in latency deviation and/or 50% peak-to-peak amplitude deviation, as per the clinical requirements. The algorithm shows consistency in the results in monitoring SSEP in up to 6-hour surgical procedures even under this significantly reduced number of trials. In this study, the analysis was performed on the data recorded in 29 patients undergoing surgery during which the posterior tibial nerve was stimulated and SSEP response was recorded from scalp. This method is shown empirically to be more clinically viable than present day approaches. In all 29 cases, the algorithm takes 4sec to extract an SSEP signal, as compared to conventional methods, which take several minutes. The monitoring process using the algorithm was successful and proved conclusive under the clinical constraints throughout the different surgical procedures with an accuracy of 91.5%. Higher accuracy and faster execution time, observed in the present study, in determining the SSEP signals provide a much improved and effective neurophysiological monitoring process.

Development of hardware in the loop real-time control techniques for hybrid power systems involving distributed demands and sustainable energy sources

The future power grid will effectively utilize renewable energy resources and distributed generation to respond to energy demand while incorporating information technology and communication infrastructure for their optimum operation. This dissertation contributes to the development of real-time techniques, for wide-area monitoring and secure real-time control and operation of hybrid power systems. ^ To handle the increased level of real-time data exchange, this dissertation develops a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system that is equipped with a state estimation scheme from the real-time data. This system is verified on a specially developed laboratory-based test bed facility, as a hardware and software platform, to emulate the actual scenarios of a real hybrid power system with the highest level of similarities and capabilities to practical utility systems. It includes phasor measurements at hundreds of measurement points on the system. These measurements were obtained from especially developed laboratory based Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) that is utilized in addition to existing commercially based PMU’s. The developed PMU was used in conjunction with the interconnected system along with the commercial PMU’s. The tested studies included a new technique for detecting the partially islanded micro grids in addition to several real-time techniques for synchronization and parameter identifications of hybrid systems. ^ Moreover, due to numerous integration of renewable energy resources through DC microgrids, this dissertation performs several practical cases for improvement of interoperability of such systems. Moreover, increased number of small and dispersed generating stations and their need to connect fast and properly into the AC grids, urged this work to explore the challenges that arise in synchronization of generators to the grid and through introduction of a Dynamic Brake system to improve the process of connecting distributed generators to the power grid.^ Real time operation and control requires data communication security. A research effort in this dissertation was developed based on Trusted Sensing Base (TSB) process for data communication security. The innovative TSB approach improves the security aspect of the power grid as a cyber-physical system. It is based on available GPS synchronization technology and provides protection against confidentiality attacks in critical power system infrastructures. ^

Impact of high pCO2 and warmer temperatures on the process of silica biomineralization in the sponge Mycale grandis

Siliceous sponges have survived pre-historical mass extinction events caused by ocean acidification and recent studies suggest that siliceous sponges will continue to resist predicted increases in ocean acidity. In this study, we monitored silica biomineralization in the Hawaiian sponge Mycale grandis under predicted pCO2 and sea surface temperature scenarios for 2100. Our goal was to determine if spicule biomineralization was enhanced or repressed by ocean acidification and thermal stress by monitoring silica uptake rates during short-term (48 h) experiments and comparing biomineralized tissue ratios before and after a long-term (26 d) experiment. In the short-term experiment, we found that silica uptake rates were not impacted by high pCO2 (1050 µatm), warmer temperatures (27°C), or combined high pCO2 with warmer temperature (1119 µatm; 27°C) treatments. The long-term exposure experiments revealed no effect on survival or growth rates of M. grandis to high pCO2 (1198 µatm), warmer temperatures (25.6°C), or combined high pCO2 with warmer temperature (1225 µatm, 25.7°C) treatments, indicating that M. grandis will continue to prosper under predicted increases in pCO2 and sea surface temperature. However, ash-free dry weight to dry weight ratios, subtylostyle lengths, and silicified weight to dry weight ratios decreased under conditions of high pCO2 and combined pCO2 warmer temperature treatments. Our results show that rising ocean acidity and temperature have marginal negative effects on spicule biomineralization and will not affect sponge survival rates of M. grandis.

Medium change monitoring using ambient seismic noise and coda wave interferometry: examples from intraplate NE Brazil and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

This thesis presents and discusses the results of ambient seismic noise correlation for two different environments: intraplate and Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The coda wave interferometry method has also been tested for the intraplate data. Ambient noise correlation is a method that allows to retrieve the structural response between two receivers from ambient noise records, as if one of the station was a virtual source. It has been largely used in seismology to image the subsurface and to monitor structural changes associated mostly with volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes. In the intraplate study, we were able to detect localized structural changes related to a small earthquake swarm, which main event is mR 3.7, North-East of Brazil. We also showed that the 1-bit normalization and spectral whitening result on the loss of waveform details and that the phase auto-correlation, which is amplitude unbiased, seems to be more sensitive and robust for our analysis of a small earthquake swarm. The analysis of 6 months of data using cross-correlations detect clear medium changes soon after the main event while the auto-correlations detect changes essentially after 1 month. It could be explained by fluid pressure redistribution which can be initiated by hydromechanical changes and opened path ways to shallower depth levels due to later occurring earthquakes. In the Mid-Atlantic Ridge study, we investigate structural changes associated with a mb 4.9 earthquake in the region of the Saint Paul transform fault. The data have been recorded by a single broadband seismic station located at less than 200 km from the Mid-Atlantic ridge. The results of the phase auto-correlation for a 5-month period, show a strong co-seismic medium change followed by a relatively fast post-seismic recovery. This medium change is likely related to the damages caused by the earthquake’s ground shaking. The healing process (filling of the new cracks) that lasted 60 days can be decomposed in two phases, a fast recovery (70% in ~30 days) in the early post-seismic stage and a relatively slow recovery later (30% in ~30 days). In the coda wave interferometry study, we monitor temporal changes of the subsurface caused by the small intraplate earthquake swarm mentioned previously. The method was first validated with synthetics data. We were able to detect a change of 2.5% in the source position and a 15% decrease of the scatterers’ amount. Then, from the real data, we observed a rapid decorrelation of the seismic coda after the mR 3.7 seismic event. This indicates a rapid change of the subsurface in the fault’s region induced by the earthquake.

Medium change monitoring using ambient seismic noise and coda wave interferometry: examples from intraplate NE Brazil and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

This thesis presents and discusses the results of ambient seismic noise correlation for two different environments: intraplate and Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The coda wave interferometry method has also been tested for the intraplate data. Ambient noise correlation is a method that allows to retrieve the structural response between two receivers from ambient noise records, as if one of the station was a virtual source. It has been largely used in seismology to image the subsurface and to monitor structural changes associated mostly with volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes. In the intraplate study, we were able to detect localized structural changes related to a small earthquake swarm, which main event is mR 3.7, North-East of Brazil. We also showed that the 1-bit normalization and spectral whitening result on the loss of waveform details and that the phase auto-correlation, which is amplitude unbiased, seems to be more sensitive and robust for our analysis of a small earthquake swarm. The analysis of 6 months of data using cross-correlations detect clear medium changes soon after the main event while the auto-correlations detect changes essentially after 1 month. It could be explained by fluid pressure redistribution which can be initiated by hydromechanical changes and opened path ways to shallower depth levels due to later occurring earthquakes. In the Mid-Atlantic Ridge study, we investigate structural changes associated with a mb 4.9 earthquake in the region of the Saint Paul transform fault. The data have been recorded by a single broadband seismic station located at less than 200 km from the Mid-Atlantic ridge. The results of the phase auto-correlation for a 5-month period, show a strong co-seismic medium change followed by a relatively fast post-seismic recovery. This medium change is likely related to the damages caused by the earthquake’s ground shaking. The healing process (filling of the new cracks) that lasted 60 days can be decomposed in two phases, a fast recovery (70% in ~30 days) in the early post-seismic stage and a relatively slow recovery later (30% in ~30 days). In the coda wave interferometry study, we monitor temporal changes of the subsurface caused by the small intraplate earthquake swarm mentioned previously. The method was first validated with synthetics data. We were able to detect a change of 2.5% in the source position and a 15% decrease of the scatterers’ amount. Then, from the real data, we observed a rapid decorrelation of the seismic coda after the mR 3.7 seismic event. This indicates a rapid change of the subsurface in the fault’s region induced by the earthquake.

Metal transfer mapping for FCAW process by using near-infrared filming

In the Flux Cored Arc Welding (FCAW) process, the transfer of filler metal (metal transfer modes) to the base material to accomplish the weld bead determines the weld quality and therefore studies of such phenomena is demanded. Thus, in this work, the metal transfer through the FCAW process is investigated by filming the phenomena with the assist of near infrared visualization. During the literature survey, it was found that this technic has not been used so far for analyzing the FCAW process. It must be pointed out that the radiation emitted from the weld arc, fumes and particles (spattering) in this process represent a barrier for these studies based in the process visualization. The monitoring of metal transfer for FCAW process was carried out within the operational envelope of voltage and wire feed speed with the electrode E71T-1 (1.2 mm diameter) and Ar+25%CO2 as a shielding gas. A local developed near infrared filming with frame rate of 300 Hz was employed for metal transfer visualization in order to contribute to a better understanding of this process and evaluating characteristics of metal transfer, unlike previous studies, which used shadowgraph technique. It can clearly be seen how the droplet is created and transferred in this process and also identify the different modes of metal transfer by changing the parameters of voltage and wire feed speed in metal transfer maps. The final result of this study is the metal transfer mode maps, which establish suitable conditions and provide the basis for developing arc control strategies for the FCAW process.

Women at work: nurse at monitoring station

Inscription: Verso: Women at work: miscellaneous occupations. Cardiac Intensive Care Unite, Douglas County Hospital, Alexandria, Minnesota.

Radiotherapy Assessment Using Diffusion Weighted MRI

Purpose: There are two goals of this study. The first goal of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using classic textural feature extraction in radiotherapy response assessment among a unique cohort of early stage breast cancer patients who received the single-dose preoperative radiotherapy. The second goal of this study is to investigate the clinical feasibility of using classic texture features as potential biomarkers which are supplementary to regional apparent diffusion coefficient in gynecological cancer radiotherapy response assessment.

Methods and Materials: For the breast cancer study, 15 patients with early stage breast cancer were enrolled in this retrospective study. Each patient received a single-fraction radiation treatment, and DWI and DCE-MRI scans were conducted before and after the radiotherapy. DWI scans were acquired using a spin-echo EPI sequence with diffusion weighting factors of b = 0 and b = 500 mm2/s, and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps were calculated. DCE-MRI scans were acquired using a T1-weighted 3D SPGR sequence with a temporal resolution of about 1 minute. The contrast agent (CA) was intravenously injected with a 0.1 mmol/kg bodyweight dose at 2 ml/s. Two parameters, volume transfer constant (Ktrans) and kep were analyzed using the two-compartment Tofts pharmacokinetic model. For pharmacokinetic parametric maps and ADC maps, 33 textural features were generated from the clinical target volume (CTV) in a 3D fashion using the classic gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCOM) and gray level run length matrix (GLRLM). Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to determine the significance of each texture feature’s change after the radiotherapy. The significance was set to 0.05 with Bonferroni correction.

For the gynecological cancer study, 12 female patients with gynecologic cancer treated with fractionated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) combined with high dose rate (HDR) intracavitary brachytherapy were studied. Each patient first received EBRT treatment followed by five fractions of HDR treatment. Before EBRT and before each fraction of brachytherapy, Diffusion Weighted MRI (DWI-MRI) and CT scans were acquired. DWI scans were acquired in sagittal plane utilizing a spin-echo echo-planar imaging sequence with weighting factors of b = 500 s/mm2 and b = 1000 s/mm2, one set of images of b = 0 s/mm2 were also acquired. ADC maps were calculated using linear least-square fitting method. Distributed diffusion coefficient (DDC) maps and stretching parameter α were calculated. For ADC and DDC maps, 33 classic texture features were generated utilizing the classic gray level run length matrix (GLRLM) and gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCOM) from high-risk clinical target volume (HR-CTV). Wilcoxon signed-rank statistics test was applied to determine the significance of each feature’s numerical value change after radiotherapy. Significance level was set to 0.05 with multi-comparison correction if applicable.

Results: For the breast cancer study, regarding ADC maps calculated from DWI-MRI, 24 out of 33 CTV features changed significantly after the radiotherapy. For DCE-MRI pharmacokinetic parameters, all 33 CTV features of Ktrans and 33 features of kep changed significantly.

For the gynecological cancer study, regarding ADC maps, 28 out of 33 HR-CTV texture features showed significant changes after the EBRT treatment. 28 out of 33 HR-CTV texture features indicated significant changes after HDR treatments. The texture features that indicated significant changes after HDR treatments are the same as those after EBRT treatment. 28 out of 33 HR-CTV texture features showed significant changes after whole radiotherapy treatment process. The texture features that indicated significant changes for the whole treatment process are the same as those after HDR treatments.

Conclusion: Initial results indicate that certain classic texture features are sensitive to radiation-induced changes. Classic texture features with significant numerical changes can be used in monitoring radiotherapy effect. This might suggest that certain texture features might be used as biomarkers which are supplementary to ADC and DDC for assessment of radiotherapy response in breast cancer and gynecological cancer.

A facilities maintenance management process based on degradation prediction using sensed data

Energy efficiency and user comfort have recently become priorities in the Facility Management (FM) sector. This has resulted in the use of innovative building components, such as thermal solar panels, heat pumps, etc., as they have potential to provide better performance, energy savings and increased user comfort. However, as the complexity of components increases, the requirement for maintenance management also increases. The standard routine for building maintenance is inspection which results in repairs or replacement when a fault is found. This routine leads to unnecessary inspections which have a cost with respect to downtime of a component and work hours. This research proposes an alternative routine: performing building maintenance at the point in time when the component is degrading and requires maintenance, thus reducing the frequency of unnecessary inspections. This thesis demonstrates that statistical techniques can be used as part of a maintenance management methodology to invoke maintenance before failure occurs. The proposed FM process is presented through a scenario utilising current Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology and innovative contractual and organisational models. This FM scenario supports a Degradation based Maintenance (DbM) scheduling methodology, implemented using two statistical techniques, Particle Filters (PFs) and Gaussian Processes (GPs). DbM consists of extracting and tracking a degradation metric for a component. Limits for the degradation metric are identified based on one of a number of proposed processes. These processes determine the limits based on the maturity of the historical information available. DbM is implemented for three case study components: a heat exchanger; a heat pump; and a set of bearings. The identified degradation points for each case study, from a PF, a GP and a hybrid (PF and GP combined) DbM implementation are assessed against known degradation points. The GP implementations are successful for all components. For the PF implementations, the results presented in this thesis find that the extracted metrics and limits identify degradation occurrences accurately for components which are in continuous operation. For components which have seasonal operational periods, the PF may wrongly identify degradation. The GP performs more robustly than the PF, but the PF, on average, results in fewer false positives. The hybrid implementations, which are a combination of GP and PF results, are successful for 2 of 3 case studies and are not affected by seasonal data. Overall, DbM is effectively applied for the three case study components. The accuracy of the implementations is dependant on the relationships modelled by the PF and GP, and on the type and quantity of data available. This novel maintenance process can improve equipment performance and reduce energy wastage from BSCs operation.