965 resultados para predictions
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to explain previously reported high levels of psychological distress in lawyers. General demands (i.e., time pressure and emotional demands) and lawyer demands (i.e., emphasis on profits and competitiveness), as well as three resources (i.e., control, pay, and praise) were examined, along with the moderating role of overcommitment. Participants included 448 Australian lawyers who completed an online questionnaire distributed to them by their state or territory law society. Results revealed significant direct relationships between the demands, resources, and overcommitment on depression and anxiety. Significant two-way interactions indicated that the positive relationship of general demands on depression and anxiety were more marked for high overcommitted lawyers, as was the negative relationship of pay on anxiety. Contrary to predictions for the three-way interaction, in the presence of high general demands, there was a trend to suggest that high control was positively related to psychological distress for high overcommitted lawyers. The theoretical and practical implications of these results, including the importance of identifying overcommitted lawyers and developing preventive interventions to reduce overcommitment prior to the development of strain, are discussed.
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Molecular orbital calculations have predicted the stability of a range of connectivities for the radical C5H potential surface. The most energetically favorable of these include the linear C4CH geometry and two ring-chain structures HC2C3 and C2C3H The corresponding anions are also shown to be theoretically stable, and furthermore, a fourth isomer, C2CHC2, is predicted to be the most stable anion connectivity. These results have motivated experimental efforts. Methodologies for the generation of the non-ring-containing isomeric anions C4CH and C2CHC2 have been developed utilizing negative ion mass spectrometry. The absolute connectivities of the anions have been established using deuterium labeling, charge reversal, and neutralization reionization techniques. The success of the latter experiment confirms theoretical predictions of stability of the corresponding neutral species. This is the first reported observation of the neutral C2CHC2 species that calculations predict to be substantially less stable than the C4CH connectivity but still bound relative to isomerization processes.
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This article develops methods for spatially predicting daily change of dissolved oxygen (Dochange) at both sampled locations (134 freshwater sites in 2002 and 2003) and other locations of interest throughout a river network in South East Queensland, Australia. In order to deal with the relative sparseness of the monitoring locations in comparison to the number of locations where one might want to make predictions, we make a classification of the river and stream locations. We then implement optimal spatial prediction (ordinary and constrained kriging) from geostatistics. Because of their directed-tree structure, rivers and streams offer special challenges. A complete approach to spatial prediction on a river network is given, with special attention paid to environmental exceedances. The methodology is used to produce a map of Dochange predictions for 2003. Dochange is one of the variables measured as part of the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program conducted within the Moreton Bay Waterways and Catchments Partnership.
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Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).
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Railhead is perhaps the highest stressed civil infrastructure due to the passage of heavily loaded wheels through a very small contact patch. The stresses at the contact patch cause yielding of the railhead material and wear. Many theories exist for the prediction of these mechanisms of continuous rails; this process in the discontinuous rails is relatively sparingly researched. Discontinuous railhead edges fail due to accumulating excessive plastic strains. Significant safety concern is widely reported as these edges form part of Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) in the signalling track circuitry. Since Hertzian contact is not valid at a discontinuous edge, 3D finite element (3DFE) models of wheel contact at a railhead edge have been used in this research. Elastic–plastic material properties of the head hardened rail steel have been experimentally determined through uniaxial monotonic tension tests and incorporated into a FE model of a cylindrical specimen subject to cyclic tension load- ing. The parameters required for the Chaboche kinematic hardening model have been determined from the stabilised hysteresis loops of the cyclic load simulation and imple- mented into the 3DFE model. The 3DFE predictions of the plastic strain accumulation in the vicinity of the wheel contact at discontinuous railhead edges are shown to be affected by the contact due to passage of wheels rather than the magnitude of the loads the wheels carry. Therefore to eliminate this failure mechanism, modification to the contact patch is essential; reduction in wheel load cannot solve this problem.
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A combined experimental and numerical program was conducted to study the in-plane shear behaviour of hollow concrete masonry panels containing reinforced grout cores. This paper is focused on the numerical program. A two dimensional macromodelling strategy was used to simulate the behaviour of the confined masonry (CM) shear panels. Both the unreinforced masonry and the confining element were modelled using macromasonry properties and the steel reinforcement was modelled as an embedded truss element located within the grout using perfectly bonded constraint. The FE model reproduced key behaviours observed in the experiments, including the shear strength, the deformation and the crack patterns of the unconfined and confined masonry panels. The predictions of the validated model were used to evaluate the existing in-plane shear expressions available in the national masonry standards and research publications.
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A national survey to estimate vacancy rates of Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs) in hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers was conducted in 2007. Poisson regression methods were used to improve the precision of the estimates. A significant increase in the estimated vacancy rate was reported for hospitals relative to an earlier study from 2002, although it is important to note that there were some methodological differences between the 2 surveys explaining part of the increase. Results from this study found the vacancy rate was higher in rural hospitals than in nonrural hospitals, and it was lower in ambulatory surgical centers. A number of simulations were run to predict the effects of relevant changes in the market for surgeries and number of CRNAs, which were compared to the predictions from the previous survey. The remarkable factor since the last survey was the unusually large rate of new CRNAs entering the market, yet the vacancy rates remain relatively high.
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The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.
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Fundamental understanding on microscopic physical changes of plant materials is vital to optimize product quality and processing techniques, particularly in food engineering. Although grid-based numerical modelling can assist in this regard, it becomes quite challenging to overcome the inherited complexities of these biological materials especially when such materials undergo critical processing conditions such as drying, where the cellular structure undergoes extreme deformations. In this context, a meshfree particle based model was developed which is fundamentally capable of handling extreme deformations of plant tissues during drying. The model is built by coupling a particle based meshfree technique: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). Plant cells were initiated as hexagons and aggregated to form a tissue which also accounts for the characteristics of the middle lamella. In each cell, SPH was used to model cell protoplasm and DEM was used to model the cell wall. Drying was incorporated by varying the moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model can be used to simulate tissues under excessive moisture content reductions incorporating cell wall wrinkling. Also, compared to the state of the art SPH-DEM tissue models, the proposed model better replicates real tissues and the cell-cell interactions used ensure efficient computations. Model predictions showed good agreement both qualitatively and quantitatively with experimental findings on dried plant tissues. The proposed modelling approach is fundamentally flexible to study different cellular structures for their microscale morphological changes at dehydration.
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Structural stability, electronic, and optical properties of InN under high pressure are studied using the first-principles calculations. The lattice constants and electronic band structure are found consistent with the available experimental and theoretical values. The pressure of the wurtzite-to-rocksalt structural transition is 13.4 GPa, which is in an excellent agreement with the most recent experimental values. The optical characteristics reproduce the experimental data thus justifying the feasibility of our theoretical predictions of the optical properties of InN at high pressures.
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The results of comprehensive experimental studies of the operation, stability, and plasma parameters of the low-frequency (0.46 MHz) inductively coupled plasmas sustained by the internal oscillating rf current are reported. The rf plasma is generated by using a custom-designed configuration of the internal rf coil that comprises two perpendicular sets of eight currents in each direction. Various diagnostic tools, such as magnetic probes, optical emission spectroscopy, and an rf-compensated Langmuir probe were used to investigate the electromagnetic, optical, and global properties of the argon plasma in wide ranges of the applied rf power and gas feedstock pressure. It is found that the uniformity of the electromagnetic field inside the plasma reactor is improved as compared to the conventional sources of inductively coupled plasmas with the external flat coil configuration. A reasonable agreement between the experimental data and computed electromagnetic field topography inside the chamber is reported. The Langmuir probe measurements reveal that the spatial profiles of the electron density, the effective electron temperature, plasma potential, and electron energy distribution/probability functions feature a high degree of the radial and axial uniformity and a weak azimuthal dependence, which is consistent with the earlier theoretical predictions. As the input rf power increases, the azimuthal dependence of the global plasma parameters vanishes. The obtained results demonstrate that by introducing the internal oscillated rf currents one can noticeably improve the uniformity of electromagnetic field topography, rf power deposition, and the plasma density in the reactor.
Resumo:
The intermittently rivet fastened Rectangular Hollow Flange Channel Beam (RHFCB) is a new cold-formed hollow section proposed as an alternative to welded hollow flange beams. It is a monosymmetric channel section made by intermittently rivet fastening two torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges to a web plate. This method will allow the development of optimum sections by choosing appropriate combinations of web and flange plate widths and thicknesses. RHFCBs can be commonly used as flexural members in buildings. Many experimental and numerical studies have been carried out in the past to investigate the shear behaviour of lipped channel beams. However, no research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour of rivet fastened RHFCBs. Therefore a detailed experimental study involving 19 shear tests was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and capacities of rivet fastened RHFCBs. Simply supported test specimens of RHFCB with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were loaded at mid-span until failure. Comparison of experimental results with corresponding predictions from the current Australian cold-formed steel design rules showed that the current design rules are very conservative for the shear design of rivet fastened RHFCBs. Significant improvements to web shear buckling occurred due to the presence of rectangular hollow flanges while considerable post-buckling strength was also observed. Appropriate improvements have been proposed for the design rules of shear strength of rivet fastened RHFCBs within the Direct Strength Method format. This paper presents the details of this study and the results.
Resumo:
SupaCee section is one of the cold-formed steel members which is increasingly used in the construction sector. It is characterized by unique ribbed web and curved lip elements, and is claimed to be more economical with extra strength than the traditional channel sections. SupaCee sections are widely used in Australia as floor joists, bearers, purlins and girts. Many experimental and numerical studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of conventional channel beams subject to web crippling. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the web crippling behaviour and strength of SupaCee sections. Current cold-formed steel design equations do not include any design procedures for SupaCee sections. Hence experimental studies were conducted to assess the web crippling behaviour and strengths of SupaCee sections under ETF and ITF load cases. Thirty six web crippling tests were conducted and the capacity results were compared with the predictions from the AS/NZS 4600 and AISI design rules developed for conventional channel sections. Comparison of ultimate web crippling capacities from tests showed that AS/NZS 4600 and AISI design equations are unconservative for SupaCee sections under ETF load case, but are overly conservative for ITF load case. Hence new equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of SupaCee sections based on the experimental results from this study. Suitable design rules were also developed within the direct strength method format. This paper presents the details of this experimental study of SupaCee sections subject to web crippling and the results.
Resumo:
Mass spectrometric analysis of the low-molecular weight (LMW) range of the serum/plasma proteome is revealing the existence of large numbers of previously unknown peptides and protein fragments predicted to be derived from low- abundance proteins. This raises the question of why such low abundance molecules would be retained at detectable levels in the circulation, instead of being rapidly cleared and excreted. Theoretical models of biomarker production and association with serum carrier proteins have been developed to elucidate the mechanisms governing biomarker half-life in the bloodstream. These models predict that the vast majority of LMW biomarkers exist in association with circulating high molecular mass carrier proteins. Moreover, the total serum/ plasma concentration of the biomarker is largely determined by the clearance rate of the carrier protein, not the free-phase biomarker clearance itself. These predictions have been verified experimentally using molecular mass fractionation of human serum before mass spectrometry sequence analysis. These principles have profound implications for biomarker discovery and measurement.
Resumo:
Drying is a key processing techniques used in food engineering which demands continual developments on advanced analysis techniques in order to optimize the product and the process. In this regard, plant based materials are a frequent subject of interest where microstructural studies can provide a clearer understanding on the fundamental physical mechanisms involved. In this context, considering numerous challenges of using conventional numerical grid-based modelling techniques, a meshfree particle based model was developed to simulate extreme deformations of plant microstructure during drying. The proposed technique is based on a particle based meshfree method: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). A tissue model was developed by aggrading individual cells modelled with SPH-DEM coupled approach by initializing the cells as hexagons and aggregating them to form a tissue. The model also involves a middle lamella resembling real tissues. Using the model, different dried tissue states were simulated with different moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model is capable of simulating plant tissues at lower moisture contents which results in excessive shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling. Model predictions were compared with experimental findings and a fairly good agreement was observed both qualitatively and quantitatively.