New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks

The aim of this paper is to explore the use of both an Eulerian and system-centered method of storm track diagnosis applied to a wide range of meteorological fields at multiple levels to provide a range of perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter transient motions and to give new insight into the storm track organization and behavior. The data used are primarily from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses project extended with operational analyses to the period 1979-2000. This is supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Goddard Earth Observing System 1 reanalyses. The range of fields explored include the usual mean sea level pressure and the lower- and upper-tropospheric height, meridional wind, vorticity, and temperature, as well as the potential vorticity (PV) on a 330-K isentropic surface (PV330) and potential temperature on a PV = 2 PVU surface (theta(PV2)). As well as reporting the primary analysis based on feature tracking, the standard Eulerian 2-6-day bandpass filtered variance analysis is also reported and contrasted with the tracking diagnostics. To enable the feature points to be identified as extrema for all the chosen fields, a planetary wave background structure is removed at each data time. The bandpass filtered variance derived from the different fields yield a rich picture of the nature and comparative magnitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, and of the Siberian and Mediterranean candidates for storm tracks. The feature tracking allows the cyclonic and anticyclonic activities to be considered seperately. The analysis indicates that anticyclonic features are generally much weaker with less coherence than the cyclonic systems. Cyclones and features associated with them are shown to have much greater coherence and give tracking diagnostics that create a vivid storm track picture that includes the aspects highlighted by the variances as well as highlighting aspects that are not readily available from Eulerian studies. In particular, the upper-tropospheric features as shown by negative theta(PV2), for example, occur in a band spiraling around the hemisphere from the subtropical North Atlantic eastward to the high latitudes of the same ocean basin. Lower-troposphere storm tracks occupy more limited longitudinal sectors, with many of the individual storms possibly triggered from the upper-tropospheric disturbances in the spiral band of activity.

Simulation of monsoon disturbances in the LMD GCM

The monsoon depressions that form over India during the summer are analyzed using simulations from the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model. This type of synoptic system often occurs with a frequency of one to two per month and can produce a strong Indian rainfall. Two kinds of analyses are conducted in this study. The first one is a subjective analysis based on the evolution of the precipitation rate and the pattern of the sea level pressure. The second one is an objective analysis performed using the TRACK program, which identifies and tracks the minima in the sea level pressure anomaly held and computes the statistics for the distribution of systems. The analysis of a 9-yr control run, which simulates strong precipitation rates over the foothills of the Himalayas and over southern India but weak rates over central India, shows that the number of disturbances is coo low and that they almost never occur during August, when break conditions prevail. The generated disturbances more often move north, toward the foothills of the Himalayas. Another analysis is performed to study the effect of the Tibetan Plateau elevation on these disturbances with a 9-yr run carried out with a Tibetan Plateau at 50% of its current height. It is shown that this later integration simulates more frequent monsoon disturbances, which move rather northwestward, in agreement with the current observations. The comparison between the two runs shows that the June-July-August rainfall difference is in large part due to changes in the occurrence of the monsoon disturbances.

African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Automatic tracking of vorticity centers in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses has been used to develop a 20-yr climatology of African easterly wave activity. The tracking statistics at 600 and 850 mb confirm the complicated easterly wave structures present over the African continent. The rainy zone equatorward of 15 degreesN is dominated by 600-mb activity, and the much drier Saharan region poleward of 15 degreesN is more dominated by 850-mb activity. Over the Atlantic Ocean there is just one storm track with the 600- and 850-mb wave activity collocated. Based on growth/decay and genesis statistics, it appears that the 850-mb waves poleward of 15 degreesN over land generally do not get involved with the equatorward storm track over the ocean. Instead, there appears to be significant development of 850-mb activity at the West African coast in the rainy zone around (10 degreesN, 10 degreesW), which, it is proposed, is associated with latent heat release. Based on the tracking statistics, it has been shown that there is marked interannual variability in African easterly wave (AEW) activity. It is especially marked at the 850-mb level at the West African coast between about 10 degrees and 15 degreesN, where the coefficient of variation is 0.29. For the period between 1985 and 1998, a notable positive correlation is seen between this AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This correlation is particularly strong for the postreanalysis period between 1994 and 1998. This result suggests that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may be influenced by the number of AEWs leaving the West African coast, which have significant low-level amplitudes, and not simply by the total number of AEWs.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves: A new methodology for identifying wave structures in observational data

Convectively coupled equatorial waves are fundamental components of the interaction between the physics and dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. A new methodology, which isolates individual equatorial wave modes, has been developed and applied to observational data. The methodology assumes that the horizontal structures given by equatorial wave theory can be used to project upper- and lower-tropospheric data onto equatorial wave modes. The dynamical fields are first separated into eastward- and westward-moving components with a specified domain of frequency–zonal wavenumber. Each of the components for each field is then projected onto the different equatorial modes using the y structures of these modes given by the theory. The latitudinal scale yo of the modes is predetermined by data to fit the equatorial trapping in a suitable latitude belt y = ±Y. The extent to which the different dynamical fields are consistent with one another in their depiction of each equatorial wave structure determines the confidence in the reality of that structure. Comparison of the analyzed modes with the eastward- and westward-moving components in the convection field enables the identification of the dynamical structure and nature of convectively coupled equatorial waves. In a case study, the methodology is applied to two independent data sources, ECMWF Reanalysis and satellite-observed window brightness temperature (Tb) data for the summer of 1992. Various convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin, mixed Rossby–gravity, and Rossby waves have been detected. The results indicate a robust consistency between the two independent data sources. Different vertical structures for different wave modes and a significant Doppler shifting effect of the background zonal winds on wave structures are found and discussed. It is found that in addition to low-level convergence, anomalous fluxes induced by strong equatorial zonal winds associated with equatorial waves are important for inducing equatorial convection. There is evidence that equatorial convection associated with Rossby waves leads to a change in structure involving a horizontal structure similar to that of a Kelvin wave moving westward with it. The vertical structure may also be radically changed. The analysis method should make a very powerful diagnostic tool for investigating convectively coupled equatorial waves and the interaction of equatorial dynamics and physics in the real atmosphere. The results from application of the analysis method for a reanalysis dataset should provide a benchmark against which model studies can be compared.

A bow-form burrow and its sedimentological and palaeoecological significance

A deep-tier, bow-form burrow with a long apertural neck, and several different types of infill is described from Upper Jurassic shelfal carbonates of Saudi Arabia, Miocene pelagic packstones and wackestones of Malta, and Lower Cretaceous shoreface sands and mudrocks of southern England. The two most commonly observed types of infill are a coarse-grained infill, referred to as Glyphichnus-mode (formed by sediment entering the burrow following breakage of the apertural neck), and a laminated, muddy infill, referred to as Cylindrichnus-mode, which is considered to represent passive, drought filling through a complete burrow. The type of infill and aspects of preservation show that these burrows can be used to assess the style of sedimentation, particularly steady aggradation versus periodic erosion. At present the bow-form burrow is not assigned to a specific ichnotaxon.

A glacier inventory for the Buordakh Massif, Cherskiy Range, northeast Siberia, and evidence for recent glacier recession

The Buordakh Massif, in the Cherskiy Range of northeast Siberia, contains mountains over 3000 in and, despite its and climate, numerous glaciers. This paper presents a glacier inventory for the region and documents some 80 glaciers, which range in size from 0.1 to 10.4 km(2) (total glacierized area is ca. 70 km(2)). The inventory is based on mapping derived from Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite imagery from August 2001, augmented with data from field investigations obtained at that time. The glaciers in this region are of the 'firn-less,' cold, continental type, and their mass balance relies heavily on the formation of superimposed ice. The most recent glacier maximum extents have also been delineated, and these are believed to date from the Little Ice Age (ca. A.D. 1550-1850). Glacier areal extent has reduced by some 14.8 km(2) (ca. 17%) since this most. recent maximum. Of the 80 glaciers catalogued, 49 have undergone a measurable retreat from their most recent maximum extent.

Learning a procedural task: effectiveness of multimedia presentations

Three experiments investigated the effectiveness of presenting procedural information through different media and their combinations. Experiment 1 examined the effectiveness of text, line drawings, text and line drawings, video. and video stills for learning a first aid task. The results showed an advantage of text and line drawings and of the video presentation over the other three conditions for both bandaging performance and answering questions about the task. Experiment 2 showed that the beneficial effect of the combination of text and pictures could not be accounted for simply in terms of a dual coding explanation. Rather, the effectiveness of the media and their combinations was influenced by the extent to which they conveyed action information. Finally, Experiment 3 showed no evidence of a contiguity effect: text and pictures were as effective when presented together on the same screen as when they were presented separately. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The simulation of peak and delayed ENSO teleconnections

There is much evidence that El Niño and La Niña lead to significant atmospheric seasonal predictability across much of the globe. However, despite successful predictions of tropical Pacific SSTs, atmospheric seasonal forecasts have had limited success. This study investigates model errors in the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadAM3) by analyzing composites of similar El Niño and La Niña events at their peak in December–January–February (DJF) and through their decay in March–April–May (MAM). The large-scale, tropical ENSO teleconnections are modeled accurately by HadAM3 during DJF but the strongest extratropical teleconnection, that in the North Pacific during winter, is modeled inaccurately. The Aleutian low is frequently observed to shift eastward during El Niño but the modeled response always consists of a deepening of the low without a shift. This is traced to small errors in the sensitivity of precipitation to SST in the tropical Pacific, which does not display enough variability so that the precipitation is always too high over the warmest SSTs. This error is reduced when vertical resolution is increased from 19 to 30 levels but enhanced horizontal resolution does not improve the simulation further. In MAM, following the peak of an El Niño or La Niña, atmospheric anomalies are observed to decay rapidly. The modeled ENSO response in DJF persists into MAM, making the extratropical anomalies in MAM too strong. This inaccuracy is again likely to be due to the high modeled sensitivity of tropical Pacific precipitation to SST, which is not significantly improved with enhanced vertical or horizontal resolution in MAM.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

A new perspective on blocking

It is argued that the essential aspect of atmospheric blocking may be seen in the wave breaking of potential temperature (θ) on a potential vorticity (PV) surface, which may be identified with the tropopause, and the consequent reversal of the usual meridional temperature gradient of θ. A new dynamical blocking index is constructed using a meridional θ difference on a PV surface. Unlike in previous studies, the central blocking latitude about which this difference is constructed is allowed to vary with longitude. At each longitude it is determined by the latitude at which the climatological high-pass transient eddy kinetic energy is a maximum. Based on the blocking index, at each longitude local instantaneous blocking, large-scale blocking, and blocking episodes are defined. For longitudinal sectors, sector blocking and sector blocking episodes are also defined. The 5-yr annual climatologies of the three longitudinally defined blocking event frequencies and the seasonal climatologies of blocking episode frequency are shown. The climatologies all pick out the eastern North Atlantic–Europe and eastern North Pacific–western North America regions. There is evidence that Pacific blocking shifts into the western central Pacific in the summer. Sector blocking episodes of 4 days or more are shown to exhibit different persistence characteristics to shorter events, showing that blocking is not just the long timescale tail end of a distribution. The PV–θ index results for the annual average location of Pacific blocking agree with synoptic studies but disagree with modern quantitative height field–based studies. It is considered that the index used here is to be preferred anyway because of its dynamical basis. However, the longitudinal discrepancy is found to be associated with the use in the height field index studies of a central blocking latitude that is independent of longitude. In particular, the use in the North Pacific of a latitude that is suitable for the eastern North Atlantic leads to spurious categorization of blocking there. Furthermore, the PV–θ index is better able to detect Ω blocking than conventional height field indices.

The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors

An investigation is made of the impact of a full linearized physical (moist) parameterization package on extratropical singular vectors (SVs) using the ECMWF integrated forecasting system (IFS). Comparison is made for one particular period with a dry physical package including only vertical diffusion and surface drag. The crucial extra ingredient in the full package is found to be the large-scale latent heat release. Consistent with basic theory, its inclusion results in a shift to smaller horizontal scales and enhanced growth for the SVs. Whereas, for the dry SVs, T42 resolution is sufficient, the moist SVs require T63 to resolve their structure and growth. A 24-h optimization time appears to be appropriate for the moist SVs because of the larger growth of moist SVs compared with dry SVs. Like dry SVs, moist SVs tend to occur in regions of high baroclinicity, but their location is also influenced by the availability of moisture. The most rapidly growing SVs appear to enhance or reduce large-scale rain in regions ahead of major cold fronts. The enhancement occurs in and ahead of a cyclonic perturbation and the reduction in and ahead of an anticyclonic perturbation. Most of the moist SVs for this situation are slightly modified versions of the dry SVs. However, some occur in new locations and have particularly confined structures. The most rapidly growing SV is shown to exhibit quite linear behavior in the nonlinear model as it grows from 0.5 to 12 hPa in 1 day. For 5 times this amplitude the structure is similar but the growth is about half as the perturbation damps a potential vorticity (PV) trough or produces a cutoff, depending on its sign.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

Factors governing cellular convection in orographic precipitation

The development of shallow cellular convection in warm orographic clouds is investigated through idealized numerical simulations of moist flow over topography using a cloud-resolving numerical model. Buoyant instability, a necessary element for moist convection, is found to be diagnosed most accurately through analysis of the moist Brunt–Väisälä frequency (N_m) rather than the vertical profile of θ_e. In statically unstable orographic clouds (N_m^2) < 0), additional environmental and terrain-related factors are shown to have major effects on the amount of cellularity that occurs in 2D simulations. One of these factors, the basic-state wind shear, may suppress convection in 2D yet allow for longitudinal convective roll circulations in 3D. The presence of convective structures within an orographic cloud substantially enhanced the maximum rainfall rates, precipitation efficiencies, and precipitation accumulations in all simulations.

CISK or WISHE as the mechanism for tropical cyclone intensification

Examination of conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), two proposed mechanisms for tropical cyclone and polar low intensification, suggests that the sensitivity of the intensification rate of these disturbances to surface properties, such as surface friction and moisture supply, will be different for the two mechanisms. These sensitivities were examined by perturbing the surface characteristics in a numerical model with explicit convection. The intensification rate was found to have a strong positive dependence on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while remaining largely insensitive to the frictional drag coefficient. CISK does not predict the observed dependence of vortex intensification rate on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, nor the insensitivity to the frictional drag coefficient since it anticipates that intensification rate is controlled by frictional convergence in the boundary layer. Since neither conditional instability nor boundary moisture content showed any significant sensitivity to the transfer coefficients, this is true of CISK using both the convective closures of Ooyama and of Charney and Eliassen. In comparison, the WISHE intensification mechanism does predict the observed increase in intensification rate with heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while not anticipating a direct influence from surface friction.

Parcel theory in three dimensions and the calculation of SCAPE

Slantwise convective available potential energy (SCAPE) is a measure of the degree to which the atmosphere is unstable to conditional symmetric instability (CSI). It has, until now, been defined by parcel theory in which the atmosphere is assumed to be nonevolving and balanced, that is, two-dimensional. When applying this two-dimensional theory to three-dimensional evolving flows, these assumptions can be interpreted as an implicit assumption that a timescale separation exists between a relatively rapid timescale for slantwise ascent and a slower timescale for the development of the system. An approximate extension of parcel theory to three dimensions is derived and it is shown that calculations of SCAPE based on the assumption of relatively rapid slantwise ascent can be qualitatively in error. For a case study example of a developing extratropical cyclone, SCAPE calculated along trajectories determined without assuming the existence of the timescale separation show large SCAPE values for parcels ascending from the warm sector and along the warm front. These parcels ascend into the cloud head within which there is some evidence consistent with the release of CSI from observational and model cross sections. This region of high SCAPE was not found for calculations along the relatively rapidly ascending trajectories determined by assuming the existence of the timescale separation.