A UTILIZAÇÃO DO LASER DE BAIXA INTENSIDADE NA MOVIMENTAÇÃO DENTÁRIA E NA SENSIBILIDADE DOLOROSA APÓS APLICAÇÃO DE FORÇA ORTODÔNTICA

O presente estudo objetivou avaliar a eficácia do Laser de Baixa Intensidade (LBI) na aceleração da movimentação dentária e na diminuição da dor frente à aplicação de força ortodôntica. A amostra foi composta por 19 pacientes, sendo doze do sexo feminino e sete do sexo masculino, com idade inicial média de 14,69 anos, todos com indicação para extrações de primeiros pré-molares. Destes, 66 caninos foram submetidos à retração inicial, sendo que 33 receberam aplicação de laser e 33 foram considerados controle. Utilizou-se o Laser de Baixa Intensidade de arseneto de gálio e alumínio, com comprimento de onda de 780nm, na dosimetria de 40mW;10J/cm2;10s/ponto, aplicado apenas uma vez ao mês em dez pontos, sendo cinco por vestibular e cinco por lingual/palatino. Modelos de gesso foram confeccionados durante todos os meses de retração dos caninos, que teve duração de quatro meses, sendo, posteriormente, digitalizados para se mensurar a quantidade de movimentação de um lado em relação ao outro, utilizando-se como referência as papilas incisivas. Para a avaliação da dor experimentada pelos pacientes, os mesmos foram orientados a preencher uma escala analógica visual (VAS) que variava de 0 a 10 , em que zero significava nenhuma dor e dez significava dor insuportável, nos intervalos de 12, 24, 48 e 72 horas após a aplicação da força ortodôntica. Foi mensurado o apinhamento de todas as hemiarcadas dos pacientes na fase inicial, medindo-se a distância entre os pontos de contato de cada dente. Para a verificação do padrão de normalidade, empregou-se o teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, sendo que para comparar o lado irradiado com o lado não irradiado foi utilizado o teste t pareado, exceto para a variável razão caninos/molares , analisada pelo teste não paramétrico de Wilcoxon (p<0,05). Os resultados mostraram que em relação ao apinhamento dentário, os lados irradiado e não irradiado apresentaram-se compatíveis. Além disso, não houve diferença estatisticamente significante entre a quantidade de retração dos caninos irradiados comparados aos não irradiados, o mesmo acontecendo com a sensibilidade dolorosa experimentada pelos pacientes. Concluiu-se assim que o LBI na dosimetria e forma como foi utilizado não foi eficiente na aceleração da movimentação dentária nem na redução da dor experimentada pelos pacientes frente às forças ortodônticas.

INTERVENÇÕES FISIOTERAPÊUTICAS NUM CONTEXTO LÚDICO JUNTO A CRIANÇAS COM DOENÇAS RESPIRATÓRIAS CRÔNICAS

Verifica-se hoje em dia o aumento da incidência de problemas pulmonares que ocasiona internações hospitalares infantis com maior freqüência. Este projeto baseia-se na visão biopsicossocial da Psicologia da Saúde e leva em conta a valorização de atividades do cotidiano da criança, como o brincar, para sua recuperação. Tem por objetivo principal investigar se a utilização de técnicas interventivas lúdicas em fisioterapia contribui para a melhora dos níveis de oxigenação de crianças asmáticas e por objetivos específicos traçar um breve perfil clínico da criança que procura o Ambulatório de Alergia e Imunologia da Faculdade de Medicina do ABC e verificar a adesão da criança com problemas respiratórios a uma intervenção fisioterapêutica lúdica da criança. A análise qualitativa da intervenção lúdica registra grande envolvimento e participação prazerosa das crianças e ampla aceitação dos pais. Estes resultados sugerem que novas pesquisas sejam realizadas a respeito de intervenções lúdicas em fisioterapia. Utiliza-se de método avaliativo-interventivo quase-experimental. Seus participantes são 58 crianças de ambos os sexos com idade de quatro a 11 anos com as patologias de asma brônquica, bronquite e rinite alérgica, sem a presença da crise. Desenvolve-se por meio de sessão única com cada paciente, com avaliação antes e após da intervenção fisioterápica lúdica por meio das aferições dos sinais vitais, (PA, FC, FR,T°C, incluindo oximetria de pulso e PFE) técnicas de aquecimento, alongamento torácico, fortalecimento abdominal e expansão torácica. Realiza análise qualitativa da responsividade das crianças às técnicas interventivas empregadas no contexto lúdico. Os resultados a respeito do perfil clinico indicam maior incidência de Asma, com 44 casos (75,8620 %), para 11 casos de Rinite (18,9655 %) e apenas três de Bronquite (5,1724 %). Os dados relativos a PA, FC, FR,T°C e ao PFE mostram-se dentro da normalidade. Este estudo não constata diferença significativa em relação ao nível de saturação de O2 após a intervenção lúdica. Quanto à adesão, 55,2 % dos participantes aderiram, sendo que a não adesão deu-se por motivos particulares alegados pelos responsáveis ou indisposição da criança, de dor de cabeça, sonolência e/ou vômito. A análise qualitativa da intervenção lúdica registra grande envolvimento e participação prazerosa das crianças e ampla aceitação dos pais. Estes resultados sugerem que novas pesquisas sejam realizadas a respeito de intervenções lúdicas em fisioterapia.(AU)

Relação entre função sexual, sintomatologia depressiva e qualidade de vida em mulheres grávidas

INTRODUCTION: Human sexuality is recognized as one of the pillars of quality of life. In women, sexual function is influenced throughout life by many factors that can lead to the appearance of changes in the cycle of sexual response, and hence the quality of life (QOL). Pregnancy is a period of change, leaving them physically and mentally vulnerable, which may affect sexual function and quality of life during pregnancy. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between sexual function, presence of depressive symptoms and quality of life in pregnant women. METHODS: The study included 207 pregnant women attending prenatal examination of the Maternity Divine Love, Parnamirim / RN and the participants of the Course for Pregnant Women of the Department of Physical Therapy at UFRN (central campus). Initially it was applied, a questionnaire containing questions about sociodemographic, gynecological and obstetric data, as well as body and sexual self-knowledge. Sexual function was assessed using the Sexual Function Index Female (Female Sexual Function Index - FSFI). To assess the quality of life, we used the Quality Index Ferrans Life & Powers mom. The presence of depressive symptoms was verified by applying the Beck Depression Inventory. The Shapiro-Wilk test for normality was carried variables, Mann-Whitney test for carrying out the comparisons and the Wilcoxon test for comparing the monthly sexual frequency before and during pregnancy. Multiple linear regression was used to verify the relationship between sexual function, depressive symptoms and quality of life. We used the Spearman correlation to check correlation between the variables. Ap value <0.05 was adopted. RESULTS: Sexual function and depressive symptoms were related quality of life (R2 = 0.30, p <0.001). Depression had a moderate negative correlation with quality of life (0.53; p <0.001), whereas sexual function showed a positive correlation with low quality of life (0.22; p = 0.001). The planning of pregnancy, education and income shown to influence depression scores. With respect to sexual function, it was seen that during pregnancy, a reduction in the monthly frequency of sexual partner (Z = -10.56; p <0.001). Among the sexual domain, just the pain, showed a statistically significant difference compared between the second and third quarter (Z = -1.91, p <0.05). The score of the quality of life of women with sexual dysfunction was xvii significantly lower than that pregnant women without dysfunction (Z = -2.87, p = 0.004). Conclusion: Sexual function and the presence of depressive symptoms are related to the quality of life of pregnant women.

Alterações de equilíbrio postural e qualidade de vida em mulheres no ciclo gravídico puerperal

INTRODUCTION: The pregnancy and childbirth cause many changes in a woman's life, whether physical, hormonal, emotional or social. Such changes may affect the postural balance and the quality of life of women in pregnancy and may persist after delivery. To analyze changes in postural balance and quality of life in women in pregnancy and postpartum. METHODS: This study consisted of 47 women participants of the Course for Pregnant Women of the Department of Physical Therapy at UFRN, evaluated during pregnancy (2° or 3° trimester) and in the period 1-8 months postpartum. In all participants was evaluated the postural balance, the Balance Master® in five specific tests: (1) Modified Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Balance-MCTSIB; (2) Rhythmic Weight Shift Test - RWS (3) unilateral stance - US, (4) Sit to Stand - STS, and (5) Walk Across - WA. The quality of life (QoL) was assessed by applying the Quality Score of life Ferrans & Powers (IQVFP), both during pregnancy and in the postpartum period. For statistical analysis we used the Statistical Package for Social Sciences software for Personal Computer- SPSS (version 20.0), applying the tests: Shapiro-Wilk to assess the normality of the data; Chi-square to analyze the frequency of postural balance changes in the two groups of pregnancy and postpartum in both groups; McNemar test to analyze balance disorders frequency of related samples in the two time points; to compare the behavior of postural balance during pregnancy and postpartum, and to compare the QoL between the periods, we used the Wilcoxon test; and yet, the MannWhitney test to compare the QoL scores in the two groups of pregnancy and postpartum in both groups. We adopted p-value <0.05. RESULTS: Comparing the postural balance during pregnancy and postpartum in MSTSIB test has statistical difference in unstable surface with closed eyes (p=0.001) and in the US test, the speed of oscillation with right leg with eyes closed (p=0,03). Quality of life, there was statistical difference between the scores only among postpartum groups, the family domain (p=0.03); and to comparing pregnancy and postpartum in domain health and operation (p=0.02) and the Socioeconomic domain (p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: It was observed that the balance changes present during pregnancy persist postpartum, and the quality of life is considered good by women, both during pregnancy and postpartum.

Efeito agudo do exercício físico associado a praxias ideomotoras sobre as concentrações séricas de cortisol e memória declarativa em indivíduos com idade entre 51 e 74 anos

Introduction: Several modifications are identified as aging, causing more or less limitation imposed by over the years. Among these, one can highlight the different degrees of cognitive decline, particularly memory that can involve the daily activities and the subject functionality. Studies have shown an association between levels of serum cortisol and stress imposed by the exercise on this. However, there are few studies that references the performance on cognitive aspects of declarative memory and cortisol on the exercise in the water with automatic and práxicos movements and moderate. Objective: Check the effect based on the acute physical exercise and práxicos automatic movements on the performance of visual declarative memory and in serum cortisol in subjects aged between 51 and 74 years. Materials and Methods: It builds a survey characterized as cross with a first sample of 32 physically active subjects aged between 51 and 74 years, divided into two exercise groups (March of Automatic Group - MAG and the March of Praxis Group - MPG). We used a probabilistic and random sampling for sample selection. Used the MMSE (Mini Mental State Examination) to check the general cognitive status, visual acuity test - optotypes chart "E" Rasquin and was even used the declarative visual memory test proposed by Nitrini and collaborators (1994), applying before motor stimulation and immediately after, and the day of blood collection with 2 ml for analysis of cortisol hormone. The normality and homogeneity were verified from the Shapiro-Wilk and Levene tests. Thus we adopted a descriptive statistics to characterize the sample. The Split-Plot ANOVA was used along with the paired t-test to verify the identified differences. We adopted a significance level of p <0.05. Results: It was observed that the groups (MAG and MPG) and the anthropometric variables, perceived exertion, education, cognitive assessment and visual acuity showed no significant differences (p > 0.05), showing that the groups are homogeneous, with variables and similar means. After the stimulation session, lasting 30 min, it was observed that the amount of hits for Δ of declarative memory questionnaire visual images increased, presenting significant for both groups (MAG, p < 0.001; MPG, p = 0.042). The same was observed for cortisol concentration with a reduction in the levels immediately after the stimulus (MAG and MPG, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The results showed that the exercises proposed in its acute effect provide significantly memories of gains and also showed a reduction in cortisol levels.

Análise de métodos para detecção de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais climáticas

The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.

Normalização de eletromiografia de superfície dos músculos respiratórios em sujeitos saudáveis: contração voluntária máxima máxima isométrica versus pressões respiratórias máximas

Aim : To evaluate and to standardize surface electromyography (sEMG) normalization procedures for respiratory muscles by comparing muscle activation during Maximal Voluntary Isometric Contraction (MVIC) and Maximal Respiratory Pressures (MIP, MEP and sniff test). Methods: Healthy subjects were evalua ted regarding demographics, spirometry and sEMG during the five maneuvers: sniff test, MIP , MEP and Maximal Voluntary Isometric C ontraction (MVIC) of RA, SCM and SC A . For electrode placement, skin was prepared with abrasion, followed by shaving in the foll owing regions for acquisition of el ectromyographic signals: (1) SC M: lower third of the distance between the mastoid process and t he sternoclavicular joint; (2) SC A : 5 cm to the right from the sternoclavicular joint and at this point, up to 2 cm; and (3 ) RA: the level of umbilicus, 4 cm to the right. In electromyographic variables analysis , the data normality was assessed by Shapiro - Wilk test. Comparisons among studied maneuvers were performed by Friedman Test and Dunn’s post - hoc for multiple comparisons a mong inspiratory maneuvers, and Mann Whitney test for expiratory maneuvers. Subgroups differences between genders were performed by Student's t test or Mann - Whitney test according to data normality. Results: 35 subjects participated in the study, b ut 5 we re excluded (BMI> 25 kg/ m²). Sample consisted of 30 subjects (1 5 women), mean age 27.3±7.43 years, BMI 22.2 ± 1.69 kg/m² and spirometric indices within normal limits. Specific MVIC for SCM, SCA and RA showed the highest RMS. When we grouped sample into gender we found no difference among RMS values for the studied SCM maneuvers, while for SCA, MVIC SCM / SCA was the one with the highest RMS and for RA, MVIC RA in men. Once considering women, MVIC SCM/SCA showed the highest RMS for SCM, SCA and MVIC RA showed t he highest value for RA. Conclusion: MVIC for SCM, SCA and RA muscles showed the highest RMS values. When comparing RMS between the studied groups, there was no significant difference between men and women.

Efeito tardio do kinesio taping na função do membro inferior e no desempenho neuromuscular do quadríceps femoral de mulheres saudáveis: ensaio clínico e randomizado

Introduction: Kinesio Taping (KT) has been used in healthy people to improve neuromuscular performance, however, few studies have evaluated its chronic effects, despite being suggested. Objective: To analyze the chronic effects of KT on neuromuscular performance of the quadriceps, the oscillation of the center of pressure and lower limb function in healthy women. Methods: blinded, randomized, controlled trial, composed of 60 women (mean age 21.9 ± 3.3 years and BMI 22.3 ± 2.2 kg / m2) submitted to the evaluation of oscillation of the center of pressure through the baropodometry, the lower limb function by the hop test, isokinetic knee performance, the electromyographic activity of the vastus lateralis (VL) and joint position sense of the knee (JPS). Then, participants were randomly divided into three groups of twenty: control - did not apply the KT; placebo - application of KT without tension on the quadriceps; Kinesio Taping - application of KT with tension in the same muscle group. The evaluations were conducted in five moments: prior to application of KT, immediately after the application, 24h, 48h after application and 24 hours after its removal (72h). SPSS 20.0 was used for statistical analysis. The KS test was used to verify the data normality, the Levene test for homogeneity of variances and a mixed-model ANOVA 3x5 to check intra and inter-group differences. Results: there was no difference in peak torque, the power, nor the electromyographic activity or SPA (p> 0.05) between groups. The displacement speed of center of pressure reduced immediately after the application on kinesio taping group (p <0.001), but with no differences between the groups (p = 0.28). There was a reduction in the time of peak torque among the three groups in the evaluations after KT application (p <0.001) and an increase in single hop in all groups (p <0.001), but with no differences between them. Conclusion: KT can not change, in a chronic way, the lower limb function, the oscillation of the center of pressure, the isokinetic performance, the JPS of the knee and the electromyographic activity of VL muscle in healthy women.

Influência da paridade, do tipo de parto e do nível de atividade física sobre a musculatura do assoalho pélvico em mulheres na pós-menopausa

The post-menopause stage is characterized by hormonal and organic alterations of ovarian failure. One of the most important of these is muscles alterations of the pelvic floor (MPF). According to current literature, in young women gynecological and obstetric factors, as well as lifestyles and habits influence that loss of function. However, there is still uncertainty about the influence of those variables in the MPF functions in post-menopause women. Thus, this study aimed at seeing if there is an influence from number of births, the type of birth and the level of physical activity on the MPF of post-menopause women. Another objective of this study was to compare MPF force in women who had had vaginal births with those who had been subjected to cesarean sections, those with different levels of physical activity and those with artificial and natural menopause in the initial and latter stages. Furthermore, the test of muscular force was compared to perineometry. Using observational, analytical and transversal observations, 100 women in the post-menopausal stage of life, between the ages of 45 and 65, were examined. They were divided according to the menopausal stage into three groups: women who had undergone hysterectomies, those in the initial stages of postmenopause and those in the late stage of postmenpause. The patients were questioned about social, demographic, gynecological and obstetric factors. All the volunteers were submitted to a physical examination where their height and weight were measured to arrive at the corporal mass index and their waist measurements were taken. The evaluation of the pelvic floor was conducted with muscular force tests and perineometry. These results were analyzed with statistical description and ANOVA statistical tests, multiple regression and Kolmogorov-Smirnov evaluations. The results showed homogeneity with regard to social demographic and anthropometric characteristics among the women in the final test sample (n=85). It was also seen that most of the women in all three groups were married (p=0.51) and catholic (p=0.13). The average per capital income varied between $R585.47 (+/-466.67) and $R1,271.83 (+/-1,748.95), with no significant difference between the groups (p=0.05). The G>6 group presented an average age between 58.95 (+/-3.96) which was significantly greater that the G<6 group´s average age (53.21+/- 3.88) (p=0.000). There was no difference between the groups´ anthropometric characteristics of weight (p=0.32), height (p=0.72) and corporal mass index (p=0.34), nor in the waist measurements (p=0.33). Furthermore, no significant difference was noted in the MPF function of women who had had normal births, cesarean sections or a combination of the two (TFM p=0.897; perineum measurement p=0.502). Likewise, no differences were seen in the MPF function of women who had one, two to three or four or more births (TFM p=0.28, perineum measurement p=0.13). Finally, no difference was perceived among those with different levels of physical activity (TFM p=0.663; perineum measurement p=0.741). Therefore, we found that the type of delivery, number of births and physical activity had no influence on the muscular function of the pelvic floor among the women studied. It is believed that decline in muscular function in post-menopause women is fundamentally related to the process of aging.

Escola: lugar político da diversidade sexual e de gênero

This work aims to understand how the public school system has become a failing institution with regards to sexual and gender diversity. I start from the principle that the school system performs a social sorting operation, leaving out of its halls almost all people who don‘t fit into the established heteronormative social order. First, I explore the experiences of primary school (Educação do Ensino Fundamental) professionals from the public network (Rede Pública Municipal) of the city of Natal-RN. I consider their narratives a result of daily practices which denounce the rules that govern and produce them in a broader context. Then I aim to establish a dialogue with the students who are victims of name-calling, teasing and abuse for not aligning with the ―normal‖ gender standards. At this stage of the research, I conducted fieldwork at the State Secondary School of Rio Grande do Norte (Escola Estadual de Ensino Médio). This investigation is guided by the following questions: What challenges need to be addressed in order to recognize the students who have been excluded from the school environment on account of sexual and/or gender differences; additionally, how can their classroom attendance and positive learning experience be ensured? To what degree is the school community concerned with building education practices which value and acknowledge sexual and gender diversity? The research goals were: to analyze how the school and its professionals deal with sexual and gender diversity, investigating which pedagogical practices silence, freeze and obstruct the diversity of student identities; examine how the school and its subjects work toward building new pathways for learning, for coexistence, and for facing the challenges of ―new‖ social demands such as homoaffection; observe the spaces that are cracked open by the presence and the voices of students who demand recognition of their existence.

Efeitos do Kinesio Taping® sobre os marcadores clínicos indiretos de dano muscular induzido pelo exercício excêntrico: ensaio clínico randomizado

Objective: analyze the effect of Kinesio Taping (KT) on the indirect clinical markers of muscle damage induced by eccentric exercises in the elbow flexors in healthy individuals. Materials and methods: It is a randomized controlled trial involving sixty volunteers at age group between 18 and 28 years randomly selected. The sample into three groups with twenty participants: control group (CG) – eccentric protocol without KT, KT group – eccentric with tensioned KT, placebo group – eccentric protocol KT with no tension. The evaluations took place at four moments; the first one was the basis line (AV1), after the second protocol (AV2) and the following two groups 24 (AV3) and 48 hours (AV4) after the intervention protocol. The muscle damage was induced by sixteen maximum eccentric contractions of the elbow flexors from the non-dominant limb, divided in two sets of eight repetitions, at 60º/s, with two minutes interval. The variables analyzed were: the joint amplitude in rest, the level of pain, the joint position sense (JPS) followed of isokinetic checking with electromyographic sign capitation. These data were analyzed in software SPSS 20.0. The normality was identified by Kolmogorov-Smimov examination and then, being used the ANOVA mixed model with significance of 5%. Outcomes: a decrease was observed at joint amplitude moreover, an immediate increase of pain wich increased after 24 and remained until 48 hours at all groups searched. There was not difference at the JPS. The variables peak torque, average peak torque, total work and mean power mean reduced until 48 hours after muscle lesion in all groups. Among the groups, there was no difference in EMG values and for any of the variables. Conclusion: The KT did not influence at the indirect clinical markers of muscle lesion induced by eccentric exercises in the elbow flexors in healthy people.

Efeitos do Kinesio Taping® sobre os marcadores clínicos indiretos de dano muscular induzido pelo exercício excêntrico: ensaio clínico randomizado

Objective: analyze the effect of Kinesio Taping (KT) on the indirect clinical markers of muscle damage induced by eccentric exercises in the elbow flexors in healthy individuals. Materials and methods: It is a randomized controlled trial involving sixty volunteers at age group between 18 and 28 years randomly selected. The sample into three groups with twenty participants: control group (CG) – eccentric protocol without KT, KT group – eccentric with tensioned KT, placebo group – eccentric protocol KT with no tension. The evaluations took place at four moments; the first one was the basis line (AV1), after the second protocol (AV2) and the following two groups 24 (AV3) and 48 hours (AV4) after the intervention protocol. The muscle damage was induced by sixteen maximum eccentric contractions of the elbow flexors from the non-dominant limb, divided in two sets of eight repetitions, at 60º/s, with two minutes interval. The variables analyzed were: the joint amplitude in rest, the level of pain, the joint position sense (JPS) followed of isokinetic checking with electromyographic sign capitation. These data were analyzed in software SPSS 20.0. The normality was identified by Kolmogorov-Smimov examination and then, being used the ANOVA mixed model with significance of 5%. Outcomes: a decrease was observed at joint amplitude moreover, an immediate increase of pain wich increased after 24 and remained until 48 hours at all groups searched. There was not difference at the JPS. The variables peak torque, average peak torque, total work and mean power mean reduced until 48 hours after muscle lesion in all groups. Among the groups, there was no difference in EMG values and for any of the variables. Conclusion: The KT did not influence at the indirect clinical markers of muscle lesion induced by eccentric exercises in the elbow flexors in healthy people.

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Avaliação da incerteza de medição no Setor Médico-hospitalar

This study aims to evaluate the uncertainty associated with measurements made by aneroid sphygmomanometer, neonatal electronic balance and electrocautery. Therefore, were performing repeatability tests on all devices for the subsequent execution of normality tests using Shapiro-Wilk; identification of influencing factors that affect the measurement result of each measurement; proposition of mathematical models to calculate the measurement uncertainty associated with measuring evaluated for all equipament and calibration for neonatal electronic balance; evaluation of the measurement uncertainty; and development of a computer program in Java language to systematize the calibration uncertainty of estimates and measurement uncertainty. It was proposed and carried out 23 factorial design for aneroid sphygmomanometer order to investigate the effect of temperature factors, patient and operator and another 32 planning for electrocautery, where it investigated the effects of temperature factors and output electrical power. The expanded uncertainty associated with the measurement of blood pressure significantly reduced the extent of the patient classification tracks. In turn, the expanded uncertainty associated with the mass measurement with neonatal balance indicated a variation of about 1% in the dosage of medication to neonates. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the Turkey test indicated significant and indirectly proportional effects of temperature factor in cutting power values and clotting indicated by electrocautery and no significant effect of factors investigated for aneroid sphygmomanometer.