Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Moduli of smoothness and rate of a.e. convergence for some convolution operators

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Influences of body weight, body composition, and substrate oxidation rate on resting postabsorptive glucose production and gluconeogenesis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the influence of body weight, fat mass, and fat distribution on resting endogenous glucose production in healthy lean and overweight individuals. DESIGN: measurements were performed in the resting postabsorptive state in individuals receiving an unrestricted diet. SETTING: Institute of Physiology of Lausanne University. MEASUREMENTS: resting post absorptive glucose production, glycogenolysis and gluconeogenesis; resting energy expenditure and net substrate oxidation. RESULTS: Endogenous glucose production was positively correlated with body weight, lean body mass, energy expenditure and carbohydrate oxidation. Gluconeogenesis was positively correlated with net lipid oxidation and energy expenditure, and negatively correlated with net carbohydrate oxidation. No correlation with body fat or fat distribution was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Gluconeogenesis shows a large interindividual variability. Net lipid oxidation and not body fat appears to be a major determinant of gluconeogenesis.

Net increase of lactate and glutamate concentration in activated human visual cortex detected with magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 7 tesla.

After the landmark studies reporting changes in the cerebral metabolic rate of glucose (CMRGlc ) in excess of those in oxygen (CMRO2 ) during physiological stimulation, several studies have examined the fate of the extra carbon taken up by the brain, reporting a wide range of changes in brain lactate from 20% to 250%. The present study reports functional magnetic resonance spectroscopy measurements at 7 Tesla using the enhanced sensitivity to study a small cohort (n = 6). Small increases in lactate (19% ± 4%, P < 0.05) and glutamate (4% ± 1%, P < 0.001) were seen within the first 2 min of activation. With the exception of glucose (12% ± 5%, P < 0.001), no other metabolite concentration changes beyond experimental error were significantly observed. Therefore, the present study confirms that lactate and glutamate changes during physiological stimulation are small (i.e. below 20%) and shows that the increased sensitivity allows reproduction of previous results with fewer subjects. In addition, the initial rate of glutamate and lactate concentration increases implies an increase in CMRO2 that is slightly below that of CMRGlc during the first 1-2 min of activation.

Analysis of factors influencing telephone call response rate in an epidemiological study.

Descriptive epidemiology research involves collecting data from large numbers of subjects. Obtaining these data requires approaches designed to achieve maximum participation or response rates among respondents possessing the desired information. We analyze participation and response rates in a population-based epidemiological study though a telephone survey and identify factors implicated in consenting to participate. Rates found exceeded those reported in the literature and they were higher for afternoon calls than for morning calls. Women and subjects older than 40 years were the most likely to answer the telephone. The study identified geographical differences, with higher RRs in districts in southern Spain that are not considered urbanized. This information may be helpful for designing more efficient community epidemiology projects.

Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure and basal metabolic rate measured in a whole-body indirect calorimeter in Gambian men.

By use of a respiration chamber, 24-hour energy expenditure (EE), diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT), and basal and sleeping EE were measured in 20 young rural Gambian men during the "hungry" season (weight, 60.8 +/- 1.4 kg) and in a group of 16 European men matched for body composition (weight, 66.9 +/- 1.9 kg). The 24-h EE was lower in Gambian than in European men (2047 +/- 46 vs 2635 +/- 74 kcal/d, p less than 0.001, respectively). Basal EE and sleeping EE were also lower in Gambian than in European men (1.05 +/- 0.02 vs 1.25 +/- 0.02 kcal/min and 1.0 +/- 0.02 vs 1.18 +/- 0.02 kcal/min, p less than 0.01, respectively). DIT was blunted in Gambian compared with European men (6.3 +/- 0.6% vs 12.1 +/- 0.5%, p less than 0.001 respectively). The net efficiency of walking was greater in Gambian than in European men (23.2 +/- 0.3% vs 20.1 +/- 0.4%, p less than 0.001, respectively). A low basal and sleeping EE, a reduced DIT, and a high work efficiency are important energy-sparing mechanisms in Gambian men, which allow them to cope with a marginal level of dietary intake during the hungry season.

How did the Financial Crisis affect the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?

We investigate the effects of the financial crisis on the stationarity of real interest rates in the Euro Area. We use a new unit root test developed by Peseran et al. (2013) that allows for multiple unobserved factors in a panel set up. Our results suggest that while short-term and long-term real interest rates were stationary before the financial crisis, they became nonstationary during the crisis period likely due to persistent risk that characterized financial markets during that time. JEL codes: E43, C23. Keywords: Real interest rates, Euro Area, financial crisis, panel unit root tests, cross-sectional dependence.

The Cornella Health Interview Survey Follow-Up (CHIS.FU) Study: design, methods, and response rate

Background: The aim of this report is to describe the main characteristics of the design, including response rates, of the Cornella Health Interview Survey Follow-up Study. Methods: The original cohort consisted of 2,500 subjects (1,263 women and 1,237 men) interviewed as part of the 1994 Cornella Health Interview Study. A record linkage to update the address and vital status of the cohort members was carried out using, first a deterministic method, and secondly a probabilistic one, based on each subject's first name and surnames. Subsequently, we attempted to locate the cohort members to conduct the phone follow-up interviews. A pilot study was carried out to test the overall feasibility and to modify some procedures before the field work began. Results: After record linkage, 2,468 (98.7%) subjects were successfully traced. Of these, 91 (3.6%) were deceased, 259 (10.3%) had moved to other towns, and 50 (2.0%) had neither renewed their last municipal census documents nor declared having moved. After using different strategies to track and to retain cohort members, we traced 92% of the CHIS participants. From them, 1,605 subjects answered the follow-up questionnaire. Conclusion: The computerized record linkage maximized the success of the follow-up that was carried out 7 years after the baseline interview. The pilot study was useful to increase the efficiency in tracing and interviewing the respondents.

Capacity-approaching rate function for layered multiantenna architectures

The simultaneous use of multiple transmit and receive antennas can unleash very large capacity increases in rich multipath environments. Although such capacities can be approached by layered multi-antenna architectures with per-antenna rate control, the need for short-term feedback arises as a potential impediment, in particular as the number of antennas—and thus the number of rates to be controlled—increases. What we show, however, is that the need for short-term feedback in fact vanishes as the number of antennas and/or the diversity order increases. Specifically, the rate supported by each transmit antenna becomes deterministic and a sole function of the signal-to-noise, the ratio of transmit and receive antennas, and the decoding order, all of which are either fixed or slowly varying. More generally, we illustrate -through this specific derivation— the relevance of some established random CDMA results to the single-user multi-antenna problem.

The neuronal basis of attention: rate versus synchronization modulation

Extensive theoretical and experimental work on the neuronal correlates of visual attention raises two hypotheses about the underlying mechanisms. The first hypothesis, named biased competition, originates from experimental single-cell recordings that have shown that attention upmodulates the firing rates of the neurons encoding the attended features and downregulates the firing rates of the neurons encoding the unattended features. Furthermore, attentional modulation of firing rates increases along the visual pathway. The other, newer hypothesis assigns synchronization a crucial role in the attentional process. It stems from experiments that have shown that attention modulates gamma-frequency synchronization. In this paper, we study the coexistence of the two phenomena using a theoretical framework. We find that the two effects can vary independently of each other and across layers. Therefore, the two phenomena are not concomitant. However, we show that there is an advantage in the processing of information if rate modulation is accompanied by gamma modulation, namely that reaction times are shorter, implying behavioral relevance for gamma synchronization.

On high-rate full-diversity 2x2 space-time codes with low-complexity optimum detection

The 2×2 MIMO profiles included in Mobile WiMAX specifications are Alamouti’s space-time code (STC) fortransmit diversity and spatial multiplexing (SM). The former hasfull diversity and the latter has full rate, but neither of them hasboth of these desired features. An alternative 2×2 STC, which is both full rate and full diversity, is the Golden code. It is the best known 2×2 STC, but it has a high decoding complexity. Recently, the attention was turned to the decoder complexity, this issue wasincluded in the STC design criteria, and different STCs wereproposed. In this paper, we first present a full-rate full-diversity2×2 STC design leading to substantially lower complexity ofthe optimum detector compared to the Golden code with only a slight performance loss. We provide the general optimized form of this STC and show that this scheme achieves the diversitymultiplexing frontier for square QAM signal constellations. Then, we present a variant of the proposed STC, which provides a further decrease in the detection complexity with a rate reduction of 25% and show that this provides an interesting trade-off between the Alamouti scheme and SM.