Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Transfer of Medical Sensor Technologies to Environmental Monitoring, Solomons, Maryland, April 6-8, 2005: workshop proceedings

(pdf contains 23 pages)

Overfishing, uncertainty, and ocean governance: Lord Perry's question revisited

“Why does overfishing persist in the face of regulation?” The author argues that over fishing,a fundamental cause of the crisis facing our oceans, is the result of the failure of our fishing management agencies (ultimately our politicians and communities) to embrace a small suite of powerful tools (more correctly strategic approaches) which have been developed to account for uncertainty. Broad success in managing fisheries to achieve sustainability goals will only come if these tools are enthusiastically applied. This will not happen until organisational cultures within fishery management agencies undergo a major shift leading to an asset-based biodiversity conservation, rather than resource exploitation, to be placed at the centre of ocean governance.This thesis examines these issues in the context of case studies covering regional, national and provincial (State) fishery management agencies. With the exception of the case study of a regional fishery (the southern ocean krill fishery) all case studies are drawn from Australian experiences. The central recommendation of the thesis is that fishery management agencies, worldwide, should be replaced by biodiversity asset management agencies.

Designing for validation of medical devices and equipment

Validation is important in the design, development and production of medical devices since effective and appropriate validation plays a vital role in defining the success of a product in both technical and economic terms. Regulations and quality standards lay out the requirements for product validation, but it is left to each individual manufacturer to establish and maintain their own validation procedures. More recently, there has also been a change of emphasis in the regulations and standards that encourage the integration of validation into the development process. However, this poses particular challenges to the manufacturer since there is a distinct lack of guidance to assist this integration. This workbook provides the first real guidance on good design practices for medical device development. It has been developed through extensive consultation with device manufacturers and analysis of regulatory requirements. The approach is intended to assist manufacturers in meeting the new regulations.