Superiority of the Triple Combination of Bortezomib-Thalidomide-Dexamethasone Over the Dual Combination of Thalidomide-Dexamethasone in Patients With Multiple Myeloma Progressing or Relapsing After Autologous Transplantation: The MMVAR/IFM 2005-04 Randomized Phase III Trial From the Chronic Leukemia Working Party of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

PURPOSE This prospective multicenter phase III study compared the efficacy and safety of a triple combination (bortezomib-thalidomide-dexamethasone [VTD]) versus a dual combination (thalidomide-dexamethasone [TD]) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) progressing or relapsing after autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). PATIENTS AND METHODS Overall, 269 patients were randomly assigned to receive bortezomib (1.3 mg/m(2) intravenous bolus) or no bortezomib for 1 year, in combination with thalidomide (200 mg per day orally) and dexamethasone (40 mg orally once a day on 4 days once every 3 weeks). Bortezomib was administered on days 1, 4, 8, and 11 with a 10-day rest period (day 12 to day 21) for eight cycles (6 months), and then on days 1, 8, 15, and 22 with a 20-day rest period (day 23 to day 42) for four cycles (6 months). Results Median time to progression (primary end point) was significantly longer with VTD than TD (19.5 v 13.8 months; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.80; P = .001), the complete response plus near-complete response rate was higher (45% v 25%; P = .001), and the median duration of response was longer (17.2 v 13.4 months; P = .03). The 24-month survival rate was in favor of VTD (71% v 65%; P = .093). Grade 3 peripheral neuropathy was more frequent with VTD (29% v 12%; P = .001) as were the rates of grades 3 and 4 infection and thrombocytopenia. CONCLUSION VTD was more effective than TD in the treatment of patients with MM with progressive or relapsing disease post-ASCT but was associated with a higher incidence of grade 3 neurotoxicity.

Treatment modification in human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals starting combination antiretroviral therapy between 2005 and 2008.

BACKGROUND: Adverse effects of combination antiretroviral therapy (CART) commonly result in treatment modification and poor adherence. METHODS: We investigated predictors of toxicity-related treatment modification during the first year of CART in 1318 antiretroviral-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who began treatment between January 1, 2005, and June 30, 2008. RESULTS: The total rate of treatment modification was 41.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.6-45.8) per 100 person-years. Of these, switches or discontinuations because of drug toxicity occurred at a rate of 22.4 (95% CI, 19.5-25.6) per 100 person-years. The most frequent toxic effects were gastrointestinal tract intolerance (28.9%), hypersensitivity (18.3%), central nervous system adverse events (17.3%), and hepatic events (11.5%). In the multivariate analysis, combined zidovudine and lamivudine (hazard ratio [HR], 2.71 [95% CI, 1.95-3.83]; P < .001), nevirapine (1.95 [1.01-3.81]; P = .050), comedication for an opportunistic infection (2.24 [1.19-4.21]; P = .01), advanced age (1.21 [1.03-1.40] per 10-year increase; P = .02), female sex (1.68 [1.14-2.48]; P = .009), nonwhite ethnicity (1.71 [1.18-2.47]; P = .005), higher baseline CD4 cell count (1.19 [1.10-1.28] per 100/microL increase; P < .001), and HIV-RNA of more than 5.0 log(10) copies/mL (1.47 [1.10-1.97]; P = .009) were associated with higher rates of treatment modification. Almost 90% of individuals with treatment-limiting toxic effects were switched to a new regimen, and 85% achieved virologic suppression to less than 50 copies/mL at 12 months compared with 87% of those continuing CART (P = .56). CONCLUSIONS: Drug toxicity remains a frequent reason for treatment modification; however, it does not affect treatment success. Close monitoring and management of adverse effects and drug-drug interactions are crucial for the durability of CART.

Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Moral Hazard in Repeated Procurement of Services

This paper analyzes repeated procurement of services as a four-stage game divided into two periods. In each period there is (1) a contest stage à la Tullock in which the principal selects an agent and (2) a service stage in which the selected agent provides a service. Since this service effort is non-verifiable, the principal faces a moral hazard problem at the service stages. This work considers how the principal should design the period-two contest to mitigate the moral hazard problem in the period-one service stage and to maximize total service and contest efforts. It is shown that the principal must take account of the agent's past service effort in the period-two contest success function. The results indicate that the optimal way to introduce this `bias' is to choose a certain degree of complementarity between past service and current contest efforts. This result shows that contests with `additive bias' (`multiplicative bias') are optimal in incentive problems when effort cost is low (high). Furthermore, it is shown that the severity of the moral hazard problem increases with the cost of service effort (compared to the cost of contest effort) and the number of agents. Finally, the results are extended to more general contest success functions. JEL classification: C72; D82 Key words: Biased contests; Moral Hazard; Repeated Game; Incentives.

Heat shock response in yeast involves changes in both transcription rates and mRNA stabilities

We have analyzed the heat stress response in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae by determining mRNA levels and transcription rates for the whole transcriptome after a shift from 25uC to 37uC. Using an established mathematical algorithm, theoretical mRNA decay rates have also been calculated from the experimental data. We have verified the mathematical predictions for selected genes by determining their mRNA decay rates at different times during heat stress response using the regulatable tetO promoter. This study indicates that the yeast response to heat shock is not only due to changes in transcription rates, but also to changes in the mRNA stabilities. mRNA stability is affected in 62% of the yeast genes and it is particularly important in shaping the mRNA profile of the genes belonging to the environmental stress response. In most cases, changes in transcription rates and mRNA stabilities are homodirectional for both parameters, although some interesting cases of antagonist behavior are found. The statistical analysis of gene targets and sequence motifs within the clusters of genes with similar behaviors shows that both transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulons apparently contribute to the general heat stress response by means of transcriptional factors and RNA binding proteins.

A systematic review of the surgical treatment of large incisional hernia.

PURPOSE: Incisional hernia (IH) is one of the most frequent postoperative complications. Of all patients undergoing IH repair, a vast amount have a hernia which can be defined as a large incisional hernia (LIH). The aim of this study is to identify the preferred technique for LIH repair. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed and studies describing patients with IH with a diameter of 10 cm or a surface of 100 cm2 or more were included. Recurrence hazards per year were calculated for all techniques using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: Fifty-five articles were included, containing 3,945 LIH repairs. Mesh reinforced techniques displayed better recurrence rates and hazards than techniques without mesh reinforcement. Of all the mesh techniques, sublay repair, sandwich technique with sublay mesh and aponeuroplasty with intraperitoneal mesh displayed the best results (recurrence rates of <3.6%, recurrence hazard <0.5% per year). Wound complications were frequent and most often seen after complex LIH repair. CONCLUSIONS: The use of mesh during LIH repair displayed the best recurrence rates and hazards. If possible mesh in sublay position should be used in cases of LIH repair.

Positive Outcomes Influence the Rate and Time to Publication, but Not the Impact Factor of Publications of Clinical Trial Results

Objectives: Publication bias may affect the validity of evidence based medical decisions. The aim of this study is to assess whether research outcomes affect the dissemination of clinical trial findings, in terms of rate, time to publication, and impact factor of journal publications. Methods and Findings: All drug-evaluating clinical trials submitted to and approved by a general hospital ethics committee between 1997 and 2004 were prospectively followed to analyze their fate and publication. Published articles were identified by searching Pubmed and other electronic databases. Clinical study final reports submitted to the ethics committee, final reports synopses available online and meeting abstracts were also considered as sources of study results. Study outcomes were classified as positive (when statistical significance favoring experimental drug was achieved), negative (when no statistical significance was achieved or it favored control drug) and descriptive (for non-controlled studies). Time to publication was defined as time from study closure to publication. A survival analysis was performed using a Cox regression model to analyze time to publication. Journal impact factors of identified publications were recorded. Publication rate was 48·4% (380/785). Study results were identified for 68·9% of all completed clinical trials (541/785). Publication rate was 84·9% (180/212) for studies with results classified as positive and 68·9% (128/186) for studies with results classified as negative (p<0·001). Median time to publication was 2·09 years (IC95 1·61-2·56) for studies with results classified as positive and 3·21 years (IC95 2·69-3·70) for studies with results classified as negative (hazard ratio 1·99 (IC95 1·55-2·55). No differences were found in publication impact factor between positive (median 6·308, interquartile range: 3·141-28·409) and negative result studies (median 8·266, interquartile range: 4·135-17·157). Conclusions: Clinical trials with positive outcomes have significantly higher rates and shorter times to publication than those with negative results. However, no differences have been found in terms of impact factor.

Thrombin-receptor antagonist vorapaxar in acute coronary syndromes

Background: Vorapaxar is a new oral protease-activated-receptor 1 (PAR-1) antagonist that inhibits thrombin-induced platelet activation. Methods: In this multinational, double-blind, randomized trial, we compared vorapaxar with placebo in 12,944 patients who had acute coronary syndromes without ST-segment elevation. The primary end point was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, recurrent ischemia with rehospitalization, or urgent coronary revascularization. RESULTS: Follow-up in the trial was terminated early after a safety review. After a median follow-up of 502 days (interquartile range, 349 to 667), the primary end point occurred in 1031 of 6473 patients receiving vorapaxar versus 1102 of 6471 patients receiving placebo (Kaplan-Meier 2-year rate, 18.5% vs. 19.9%; hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 1.01; P = 0.07). A composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke occurred in 822 patients in the vorapaxar group versus 910 in the placebo group (14.7% and 16.4%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.98; P = 0.02). Rates of moderate and severe bleeding were 7.2% in the vorapaxar group and 5.2% in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.58; P<0.001). Intracranial hemorrhage rates were 1.1% and 0.2%, respectively (hazard ratio, 3.39; 95% CI, 1.78 to 6.45; P<0.001). Rates of nonhemorrhagic adverse events were similar in the two groups. Conclusions: In patients with acute coronary syndromes, the addition of vorapaxar to standard therapy did not significantly reduce the primary composite end point but significantly increased the risk of major bleeding, including intracranial hemorrhage. (Funded by Merck; TRACER ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00527943.)

Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer patients with previously resected liver metastasis: pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data addressing the outcomes and patterns of recurrence after pulmonary metastasectomy (PM) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and previously resected liver metastasis are limited. METHODS: We searched the PubMed database for studies assessing PM in CRC and gathered individual data for patients who had PM and a previous curative liver resection. The influence of potential factors on overall survival (OS) was analyzed through univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Between 1983 and 2009, 146 patients from five studies underwent PM and had previous liver resection. The median interval from resection of liver metastasis until detection of lung metastasis and the median follow-up from PM were 23 and 48 months, respectively. Five-year OS and recurrence-free survival rates calculated from the date of PM were 54.4 and 29.3 %, respectively. Factors predicting inferior OS in univariate analysis included thoracic lymph node (LN) involvement and size of largest lung nodule ≥2 cm. Adjuvant chemotherapy and whether lung metastasis was detected synchronous or metachronous to liver metastasis had no influence on survival. In multivariate analysis, thoracic LN involvement emerged as the only independent factor (hazard ratio 4.86, 95 % confidence interval 1.56-15.14, p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: PM offers a chance for long-term survival in selected patients with CRC and previously resected liver metastasis. Thoracic LN involvement predicted poor prognosis; therefore, significant efforts should be undertaken for adequate staging of the mediastinum before PM. In addition, adequate intraoperative LN sampling allows proper prognostic stratification and enrollment in novel adjuvant therapy trials.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Associations between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures are unclear and clinical trials are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of subclinical thyroid dysfunction with hip, nonspine, spine, or any fractures. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: The databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to March 26, 2015) were searched without language restrictions for prospective cohort studies with thyroid function data and subsequent fractures. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual participant data were obtained from 13 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan. Levels of thyroid function were defined as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH <0.45 mIU/L), and subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.50-19.99 mIU/L) with normal thyroxine concentrations. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was hip fracture. Any fractures, nonspine fractures, and clinical spine fractures were secondary outcomes. RESULTS: Among 70,298 participants, 4092 (5.8%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2219 (3.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During 762,401 person-years of follow-up, hip fracture occurred in 2975 participants (4.6%; 12 studies), any fracture in 2528 participants (9.0%; 8 studies), nonspine fracture in 2018 participants (8.4%; 8 studies), and spine fracture in 296 participants (1.3%; 6 studies). In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) for subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism was 1.36 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.13-1.64; 146 events in 2082 participants vs 2534 in 56,471); for any fracture, HR was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.06-1.53; 121 events in 888 participants vs 2203 in 25,901); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.16 (95% CI, 0.95-1.41; 107 events in 946 participants vs 1745 in 21,722); and for spine fracture, HR was 1.51 (95% CI, 0.93-2.45; 17 events in 732 participants vs 255 in 20,328). Lower TSH was associated with higher fracture rates: for TSH of less than 0.10 mIU/L, HR was 1.61 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.21-2.15; 47 events in 510 participants); for any fracture, HR was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41-2.78; 44 events in 212 participants); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.61 (95% CI, 0.96-2.71; 32 events in 185 participants); and for spine fracture, HR was 3.57 (95% CI, 1.88-6.78; 8 events in 162 participants). Risks were similar after adjustment for other fracture risk factors. Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (excluding thyroid medication users) was associated with HRs of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.19-1.93) for hip fracture, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.16-1.74) for any fracture, and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.01-2.99) for spine fracture. No association was found between subclinical hypothyroidism and fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with an increased risk of hip and other fractures, particularly among those with TSH levels of less than 0.10 mIU/L and those with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism. Further study is needed to determine whether treating subclinical hyperthyroidism can prevent fractures.

Five-year outcome of catheter ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation using termination of atrial fibrillation as a procedural endpoint.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine 5-year efficacy of catheter ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) using AF termination as a procedural end point. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred fifty patients (57±10 years) underwent persistent AF ablation using a stepwise ablation approach (pulmonary vein isolation, electrogram-guided, and linear ablation) with the desired procedural end point being AF termination. Repeat ablation was performed for recurrent AF or atrial tachycardia. AF was terminated by ablation in 120 patients (80%). Arrhythmia-free survival rates after a single procedure were 35.3%±3.9%, 28.0%±3.7%, and 16.8%±3.2% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Arrhythmia-free survival rates after the last procedure (mean 2.1±1.0 procedures) were 89.7%±2.5%, 79.8%±3.4%, and 62.9%±4.5%, at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. During a median follow-up of 58 (interquartile range, 43-73) months after the last ablation procedure, 97 of 150 (64.7%) patients remained in sinus rhythm without antiarrhythmic drugs. Another 14 (9.3%) patients maintained sinus rhythm after reinitiation of antiarrhythmic drugs, and an additional 15 (10.0%) patients regressed to paroxysmal recurrences only. Failure to terminate AF during the index procedure (hazard ratio 3.831; 95% confidence interval, 2.070-7.143; P<0.001), left atrial diameter ≥50 mm (hazard ratio 2.083; 95% confidence interval, 1.078-4.016; P=0.03), continuous AF duration ≥18 months (hazard ratio 1.984; 95% confidence interval, 1.024-3.846; P<0.04), and structural heart disease (hazard ratio 1.874; 95% confidence interval, 1.037-3.388; P=0.04) predicted arrhythmia recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with persistent AF, an ablation strategy aiming at AF termination is associated with freedom from arrhythmia recurrence in the majority of patients over a 5-year follow-up period. Procedural AF nontermination and specific baseline factors predict long-term outcome after ablation.

Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis : rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients.

Main concepts : The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach defines quality of evidence as confidence in effect estimates; this conceptualization can readily be applied to bodies of evidence estimating the risk of future of events (that is, prognosis) in broadly defined populations In the field of prognosis, a body of observational evidence (including single arms of randomized controlled trials) begins as high quality evidence. The five domains GRADE considers in rating down confidence in estimates of treatment effect-that is, risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias-as well as the GRADE criteria for rating up quality, also apply to estimates of the risk of future of events from a body of prognostic studies Applying these concepts to systematic reviews of prognostic studies provides a ful approach to determine confidence in estimates of overall prognosis in broad populations.