Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

A practical approach to designing syndromic surveillance systems for livestock and poultry

The field of animal syndromic surveillance (SyS) is growing, with many systems being developed worldwide. Now is an appropriate time to share ideas and lessons learned from early SyS design and implementation. Based on our practical experience in animal health SyS, with additions from the public health and animal health SyS literature, we put forward for discussion a 6-step approach to designing SyS systems for livestock and poultry. The first step is to formalise policy and surveillance goals which are considerate of stakeholder expectations and reflect priority issues (1). Next, it is important to find consensus on national priority diseases and identify current surveillance gaps. The geographic, demographic, and temporal coverage of the system must be carefully assessed (2). A minimum dataset for SyS that includes the essential data to achieve all surveillance objectives while minimizing the amount of data collected should be defined. One can then compile an inventory of the data sources available and evaluate each using the criteria developed (3). A list of syndromes should then be produced for all data sources. Cases can be classified into syndrome classes and the data can be converted into time series (4). Based on the characteristics of the syndrome-time series, the length of historic data available and the type of outbreaks the system must detect, different aberration detection algorithms can be tested (5). Finally, it is essential to develop a minimally acceptable response protocol for each statistical signal produced (6). Important outcomes of this pre-operational phase should be building of a national network of experts and collective action and evaluation plans. While some of the more applied steps (4 and 5) are currently receiving consideration, more emphasis should be put on earlier conceptual steps by decision makers and surveillance developers (1-3).

Mining free-text medical records for companion animal enteric syndrome surveillance.

Large amounts of animal health care data are present in veterinary electronic medical records (EMR) and they present an opportunity for companion animal disease surveillance. Veterinary patient records are largely in free-text without clinical coding or fixed vocabulary. Text-mining, a computer and information technology application, is needed to identify cases of interest and to add structure to the otherwise unstructured data. In this study EMR's were extracted from veterinary management programs of 12 participating veterinary practices and stored in a data warehouse. Using commercially available text-mining software (WordStat™), we developed a categorization dictionary that could be used to automatically classify and extract enteric syndrome cases from the warehoused electronic medical records. The diagnostic accuracy of the text-miner for retrieving cases of enteric syndrome was measured against human reviewers who independently categorized a random sample of 2500 cases as enteric syndrome positive or negative. Compared to the reviewers, the text-miner retrieved cases with enteric signs with a sensitivity of 87.6% (95%CI, 80.4-92.9%) and a specificity of 99.3% (95%CI, 98.9-99.6%). Automatic and accurate detection of enteric syndrome cases provides an opportunity for community surveillance of enteric pathogens in companion animals.

Fall-related emergency department admission: fall environment and settings and related injury patterns in 6357 patients with special emphasis on the elderly

PRINCIPALS Throughout the world, falls are a major public health problem and a socioeconomic burden. Nevertheless there is little knowledge about how the injury types may be related to the aetiology and setting of the fall, especially in the elderly. We have therefore analysed all patients presenting with a fall to our Emergency Department (ED) over the past five years. METHODS Our retrospective data analysis comprised adult patients admitted to our Emergency Department between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2010, in relation to a fall. RESULTS Of a total of 6357 patients 78% (n = 4957) patients were younger than 75 years. The main setting for falls was patients home (n = 2239, 35.3%). In contrast to the younger patients, the older population was predominantly female (56.3% versus 38.6%; P < 0.0001). Older patients were more likely to fall at home and suffer from medical conditions (all P < 0.0001). Injuries to the head (P < 0.0001) and to the lower extremity (P < 0.019) occurred predominantly in the older population. Age was the sole predictor for recurrent falls (OR 1.2, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION Falls at home are the main class of falls for all age groups, particularly in the elderly. Fall prevention strategies must therefore target activities of daily living. Even though falls related to sports mostly take place in the younger cohort, a significant percentage of elderly patients present with falls related to sporting activity. Falls due to medical conditions were most likely to result in mild traumatic brain injury.

Injury severity and mortality of adult zebra crosswalk and non-zebra crosswalk road crossing accidents: a cross-sectional analysis

PRINCIPALS Over a million people worldwide die each year from road traffic injuries and more than 10 million sustain permanent disabilities. Many of these victims are pedestrians. The present retrospective study analyzes the severity and mortality of injuries suffered by adult pedestrians, depending on whether they used a zebra crosswalk. METHODS Our retrospective data analysis covered adult patients admitted to our emergency department (ED) between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2012 after being hit by a vehicle while crossing the road as a pedestrian. Patients were identified by using a string term. Medical, police and ambulance records were reviewed for data extraction. RESULTS A total of 347 patients were eligible for study inclusion. Two hundred and three (203; 58.5%) patients were on a zebra crosswalk and 144 (41.5%) were not. The mean ISS (injury Severity Score) was 12.1 (SD 14.7, range 1-75). The vehicles were faster in non-zebra crosswalk accidents (47.7 km/n, versus 41.4 km/h, p<0.027). The mean ISS score was higher in patients with non-zebra crosswalk accidents; 14.4 (SD 16.5, range 1-75) versus 10.5 (SD13.14, range 1-75) (p<0.019). Zebra crosswalk accidents were associated with less risk of severe injury (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.38-0.98, p<0.042). Accidents involving a truck were associated with increased risk of severe injury (OR 3.53, 95%CI 1.21-10.26, p<0.02). CONCLUSION Accidents on zebra crosswalks are more common than those not on zebra crosswalks. The injury severity of non-zebra crosswalk accidents is significantly higher than in patients with zebra crosswalk accidents. Accidents involving large vehicles are associated with increased risk of severe injury. Further prospective studies are needed, with detailed assessment of motor vehicle types and speed.

VIRTOPSY--scientific documentation, reconstruction and animation in forensic: individual and real 3D data based geo-metric approach including optical body/object surface and radiological CT/MRI scanning.

Until today, most of the documentation of forensic relevant medical findings is limited to traditional 2D photography, 2D conventional radiographs, sketches and verbal description. There are still some limitations of the classic documentation in forensic science especially if a 3D documentation is necessary. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate new 3D real data based geo-metric technology approaches. This paper present approaches to a 3D geo-metric documentation of injuries on the body surface and internal injuries in the living and deceased cases. Using modern imaging methods such as photogrammetry, optical surface and radiological CT/MRI scanning in combination it could be demonstrated that a real, full 3D data based individual documentation of the body surface and internal structures is possible in a non-invasive and non-destructive manner. Using the data merging/fusing and animation possibilities, it is possible to answer reconstructive questions of the dynamic development of patterned injuries (morphologic imprints) and to evaluate the possibility, that they are matchable or linkable to suspected injury-causing instruments. For the first time, to our knowledge, the method of optical and radiological 3D scanning was used to document the forensic relevant injuries of human body in combination with vehicle damages. By this complementary documentation approach, individual forensic real data based analysis and animation were possible linking body injuries to vehicle deformations or damages. These data allow conclusions to be drawn for automobile accident research, optimization of vehicle safety (pedestrian and passenger) and for further development of crash dummies. Real 3D data based documentation opens a new horizon for scientific reconstruction and animation by bringing added value and a real quality improvement in forensic science.

Visualization and quantification of air embolism structure by processing postmortem MSCT data.

Venous air embolism (VAE) is an often occurring forensic finding in cases of injury to the head and neck. Whenever found, it has to be appraised in its relation to the cause of death. While visualization and quantification is difficult at traditional autopsy, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT) offer a new potential in the diagnosis of VAE. This paper reports the findings of VAE in four cases of massive head injury examined postmortem by Multislice Computed Tomography (MSCT) prior to autopsy. MSCT data of the thorax were processed using 3D air structure reconstruction software to visualize air embolism within the vascular system. Quantification of VAE was done by multiplying air containing areas on axial 2D images by their reconstruction intervals and then by summarizing the air volumes. Excellent 3D visualization of the air within the vascular system was obtained in all cases, and the intravascular gas volume was quantified.

Range of Motion of the Upper Extremity in a Healthy Pediatric Population: Introduction to Normative Data.

Objective In the pediatric population traumatic injuries of the upper extremity are common. After therapy a decision has to be made if the mobility of the joint lies within a normal range. The purpose of this study was to give an introduction to normative data. We investigate if there is a significant difference in the range of motion (ROM) between male and female probands and furthermore, if an effect of the age can be detected. Methods We performed an institutional review board-approved study of healthy girls and boys aged between 2 and 16 years without any medical history of an upper extremity fracture. We investigated the active ROM of the elbow, wrist, metacarpophalangeal, and interphalangeal joints. Furthermore, age, handedness, weight, and height were recorded. A total of 171 adolescents with a mean age of 10.6 years were included and separated into four cohorts by age: 2 to 5, 6 to 10, 11 to 13, and 14 to 16 years. Results We found significant differences between the genders in the age group from 11 to 13 years for the flexion of the elbow, the pronation, the flexion of the interphalangeal joint of the thumb, as well as the flexion of the metacarpophalangeal joints of digitus II to V. Furthermore, a significant difference in the same joints except from the elbow flexion could be demonstrated between the genders. Conclusion Our study contributes normative data for upper extremity ROM in the pediatric population and presents a gender-related difference in certain joints. Clinical Relevance Normative data for the ROM of upper extremity joints in children is helpful for the evaluation of pediatric orthopedic patients and provides the framework for therapeutic resolution. Since a great number of traumatic injuries in children affect the upper extremity, this information may help the physician to estimate the impact of the injury and decide on the therapeutic management.

Successful transnasal delivery of stem cells in a rat model of perinatal hypoxic-ischemic brain injury

OBJECTIVE: New routes for cell transplantation into the brain need to be explored as intracerebral or intrathecal applications have a high risk to cause damage to the central nervous system. It has been hypothesized that transnasally administrated cells bypass the blood-brain barrier and migrate along the olfactory neural route into the brain and cerebrospinal fluid. Our goal is to confirm this hypothesis by transnasally administrating Wharton’s Jelly mesenchymal stem cells (WJ-MSC) and neural progenitor cells (NPC) to perinatal rats in a model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury. STUDY DESIGN: Four-day-old Wistar rat pups, previously brain-damaged by combined hypoxic-ischemic and inflammatory insult, either received WJ-MSC or green fluorescent protein-expressing NPC: The heads of the rat pups were immobilized and 3 ml drops containing the cells (50’000 cells/ml) were placed on one nostril allowing it to be snorted. This procedure was repeated twice, alternating right to left nostril with an interval of one minute between administrations. The rat pups received a total of 600’000 cells. Animals were sacrificed 24h, 48h or 7 days after the application of the cells. Fixed brains were collected, embedded in paraffin and sectioned. RESULTS: Transplanted cells were found in the layers of the olfactory bulb (OB), the cerebral cortex, thalamus and the hippocampus. The amount of cells was highest in the OB. Animals treated with transnasally delivered stem cells showed significantly decreased gliosis compared to untreated animals. CONCLUSION: Our data show that transnasal delivery of WJ-MSC and NPC to the newborn brain after perinatal brain damage is successful. The cells not only migrate the brain, but also decrease scar formation and improve neurogenesis. Therefore, the non-invasive intranasal delivery of stem cells to the brain may be the preferred method for stem cell treatment of perinatal brain damage and should be preferred in future clinical trials.

Long-bone fractures in persons with spinal cord injury

STUDY DESIGN Retrospective data analysis. OBJECTIVES To document fracture characteristics, management and related complications in individuals with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). SETTING Rehabilitation centre for SCI individuals. METHOD Patients' records were reviewed. Patients with traumatic SCI and extremity fractures that had occurred after SCI were included. Patient characteristics, fractured bone, fracture localisation, severity and management (operative/conservative), and fracture-related complications were extracted. RESULTS A total of 156 long-bone fractures in 107 SCI patients (34 women and 73 men) were identified. The majority of patients were paraplegics (77.6%) and classified as American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale A (86.0%). Only the lower extremities were affected, whereby the femur (60.9% of all fractures) was fractured more frequently than the lower leg (39.1%). A total of 70 patients (65.4%) had one fracture, whereas 37 patients (34.6%) had two or more fractures. Simple or extraarticular fractures were most common (75.0%). Overall, 130 (83.3%) fractures were managed operatively. Approximately half of the femur fractures (48.2%) were treated with locking compression plates. In the lower leg, fractures were mainly managed with external fixation (48.8%). Conservative fracture management was applied in 16.7% of the cases and consisted of braces or a well-padded soft cast. Fracture-associated complications were present in 13.5% of the cases but did not differ significantly between operative (13.1%) and conservative (15.4%) fracture management. CONCLUSION SCI was associated with simple or extraarticular fractures of the distal femur and the lower leg. Fractures were mainly managed operatively with a low complication rate.

Outcomes of Active Surveillance for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: A Computational Risk Analysis.

BACKGROUND Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a noninvasive breast lesion with uncertain risk for invasive progression. Usual care (UC) for DCIS consists of treatment upon diagnosis, thus potentially overtreating patients with low propensity for progression. One strategy to reduce overtreatment is active surveillance (AS), whereby DCIS is treated only upon detection of invasive disease. Our goal was to perform a quantitative evaluation of outcomes following an AS strategy for DCIS. METHODS Age-stratified, 10-year disease-specific cumulative mortality (DSCM) for AS was calculated using a computational risk projection model based upon published estimates for natural history parameters, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for outcomes. AS projections were compared with the DSCM for patients who received UC. To quantify the propagation of parameter uncertainty, a 95% projection range (PR) was computed, and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS Under the assumption that AS cannot outperform UC, the projected median differences in 10-year DSCM between AS and UC when diagnosed at ages 40, 55, and 70 years were 2.6% (PR = 1.4%-5.1%), 1.5% (PR = 0.5%-3.5%), and 0.6% (PR = 0.0%-2.4), respectively. Corresponding median numbers of patients needed to treat to avert one breast cancer death were 38.3 (PR = 19.7-69.9), 67.3 (PR = 28.7-211.4), and 157.2 (PR = 41.1-3872.8), respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed that the parameter with greatest impact on DSCM was the probability of understaging invasive cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSION AS could be a viable management strategy for carefully selected DCIS patients, particularly among older age groups and those with substantial competing mortality risks. The effectiveness of AS could be markedly improved by reducing the rate of understaging.

Erythropoietin for the Repair of Cerebral Injury in Very Preterm Infants (EpoRepair).

BACKGROUND Preterm infants suffering from intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) are at increased risk for neurodevelopmental impairment. Observational data suggest that recombinant human erythropoietin (rEPO) improves long-term cognitive outcome in infants with IVH. Recent studies revealed a beneficial effect of early high-dose rEPO on white matter development in preterm infants determined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). OBJECTIVES To summarize the current evidence and to delineate the study protocol of the EpoRepair trial (Erythropoietin for the Repair of Cerebral Injury in Very Preterm Infants). METHODS The study involves a review of the literature and the design of a double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial of repetitive high-dose rEPO administration, enrolling 120 very preterm infants with moderate-to-severe IVH diagnosed by cranial ultrasound in the first days of life, qualitative and quantitative MRI at term-equivalent age and long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up until 5 years of age. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The hypothesis generated by observational data that rEPO may improve long-term cognitive outcomes of preterm infants suffering from IVH are to be confirmed or refuted by the randomized controlled trial, EpoRepair.

Evaluation of farm-level parameters derived from animal movements for use in risk-based surveillance programmes of cattle in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: This study focused on the descriptive analysis of cattle movements and farm-level parameters derived from cattle movements, which are considered to be generically suitable for risk-based surveillance systems in Switzerland for diseases where animal movements constitute an important risk pathway. METHODS: A framework was developed to select farms for surveillance based on a risk score summarizing 5 parameters. The proposed framework was validated using data from the bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) surveillance programme in 2013. RESULTS: A cumulative score was calculated per farm, including the following parameters; the maximum monthly ingoing contact chain (in 2012), the average number of animals per incoming movement, use of mixed alpine pastures and the number of weeks in 2012 a farm had movements registered. The final score for the farm depended on the distribution of the parameters. Different cut offs; 50, 90, 95 and 99%, were explored. The final scores ranged between 0 and 5. Validation of the scores against results from the BVD surveillance programme 2013 gave promising results for setting the cut off for each of the five selected farm level criteria at the 50th percentile. Restricting testing to farms with a score ≥ 2 would have resulted in the same number of detected BVD positive farms as testing all farms, i.e., the outcome of the 2013 surveillance programme could have been reached with a smaller survey. CONCLUSIONS: The seasonality and time dependency of the activity of single farms in the networks requires a careful assessment of the actual time period included to determine farm level criteria. However, selecting farms in the sample for risk-based surveillance can be optimized with the proposed scoring system. The system was validated using data from the BVD eradication program. The proposed method is a promising framework for the selection of farms according to the risk of infection based on animal movements.

Experiences with a voluntary surveillance system for early detection of equine diseases in Switzerland

Clinical observations made by practitioners and reported using web- and mobile-based technologies may benefit disease surveillance by improving the timeliness of outbreak detection. Equinella is a voluntary electronic reporting and information system established for the early detection of infectious equine diseases in Switzerland. Sentinel veterinary practitioners have been able to report cases of non-notifiable diseases and clinical symptoms to an internet-based platform since November 2013. Telephone interviews were carried out during the first year to understand the motivating and constraining factors affecting voluntary reporting and the use of mobile devices in a sentinel network. We found that non-monetary incentives attract sentinel practitioners; however, insufficient understanding of the reporting system and of its relevance, as well as concerns over the electronic dissemination of health data were identified as potential challenges to sustainable reporting. Many practitioners are not yet aware of the advantages of mobile-based surveillance and may require some time to become accustomed to novel reporting methods. Finally, our study highlights the need for continued information feedback loops within voluntary sentinel networks.

The effect of alcohol consumption on mortality among idiosyncratic drug induced liver injury (IDILI) patients

Severe liver injury (SLI) due to drugs is a frequent cause of catastrophic illness and hospitalization. Due to significant morbidity, mortality, and excess medical care costs, this poses a challenge as a public health problem. The role of associated risk factors like alcohol consumption in contributing to the high mortality remains to be studied. This study was conducted to assess the impact of alcohol use on mortality in IDILI patients, while adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education level. The data from this study indicate only a small excess risk of death among IDILI patients using alcohol, but the difference was not statistically significant. The major contribution of this study to the field of public health is that it excludes a large hazard of alcohol consumption on the mortality among idiosyncratic drug induced liver injury (IDILI) patients. ^