ECMO : the clinician’s view

Background: Extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is a complex rescue therapy used to provide cardiac and/or respiratory support for critically ill patients who have failed maximal conventional medical management. ECMO is based on a modified cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) circuit, and can provide cardiopulmonary support for up-to several months. It can be used in a veno venous configuration for isolated respiratory failure, (VV-ECMO), or in a veno arterial configuration (VA-ECMO) where support is necessary for cardiac +/- respiratory failure. The ECMO circuit consists of five main components: large bore cannulae (access cannulae) for drainage of the venous system, and return cannulae to either the venous (in VV-ECMO) or arterial (in VA ECMO) system. An oxygenator, with a vast surface area of hollow filaments, allows addition of oxygen and removal of carbon dioxide; a centrifugal blood pump allows propulsion of blood through the circuit at upto 10 L/minute; a control module and a thermoregulatory unit, which allows for exact temperature control of the extra corporeal blood. Methods: The first successful use of ECMO for ARDS in adults occurred in 1972, and its use has become more commonplace over the last 30 years, supported by the improvement in design and biocompatibility of the equipment, which has reduced the morbidity associated with this modality. Whilst the use of ECMO in neonatal population has been supported by numerous studies, the evidence upon which ECMO was integrated into adult practice was substantially less robust. Results: Recent data, including the CESAR study (Conventional Ventilatory Support versus Extra corporeal membrane oxygenation for Severe Respiratory failure) has added a degree of evidence to the role of ECMO in such a patient population. The CESAR study analysed 180 patients, and confirmed that ECMO was associated with an improved rate of survival. More recently, ECMO has been utilized in numerous situations within the critical care area, including support in high-risk percutaneous interventions in cardiac catheter lab; the operating room, emergency department, as well in specialized inter-hospital retrieval services. The increased understanding of the risk:benefit profile of ECMO, along with a reduction in morbidity associated with its use will doubtless lead to a substantial rise in the utilisation of this modality. As with all extra-corporeal circuits, ECMO opposes the basic premises of the mammalian inflammation and coagulation cascade where blood comes into foreign circulation, both these cascades are activated. Anti-coagulation is readily dealt with through use of agents such as heparin, but the inflammatory excess, whilst less macroscopically obvious, continues un-abated. Platelet consumption and neutrophil activation occur rapidly, and the clinician is faced with balancing the need of anticoagulation for the circuit, against haemostasis in an acutely bleeding patient. Alterations in pharmacokinetics may result in inadequate levels of disease modifying therapeutics, such as antibiotics, hence paradoxically delaying recovery from conditions such as pneumonia. Key elements of nutrition and the innate immune system maysimilarly be affected. Summary: This presentation will discuss the basic features of ECMO to the nonspecialist, and review the clinical conundrum faced by the team treating these most complex cases.

Contrast water therapy and exercise induced muscle damage : a systematic review and meta-analysis

The aim of this systematic review was to examine the effect of Contrast Water Therapy (CWT) on recovery following exercise induced muscle damage. Controlled trials were identified from computerized literature searching and citation tracking performed up to February 2013. Eighteen trials met the inclusion criteria; all had a high risk of bias. Pooled data from 13 studies showed that CWT resulted in significantly greater improvements in muscle soreness at the five follow-up time points(<6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) in comparison to passive recovery. Pooled data also showed that CWT significantly reduced muscle strength loss at each follow-up time (<6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours) in comparison to passive recovery. Despite comparing CWT to a large number of other recovery interventions, including cold water immersion, warm water immersion, compression, active recovery and stretching, there was little evidence for a superior treatment intervention. The current evidence base shows that CWT is superior to using passive recovery or rest after exercise; the magnitudes of these effects may be most relevant to an elite sporting population. There seems to be little difference in recovery outcome between CWT and other popular recovery interventions.

Corporate governance and risk management : the role of risk management and compensation committees

This paper examines the role of compensation and risk committees in managing and monitoring the risk behaviour of Australian financial firms in the period leading up to the global financial crisis (2006–2008). This empirical study of 711 observations of financial sector firms demonstrates how the coordination of risk management and compensation committees reduces information asymmetry. The study shows that the composition of the risk and compensation committees is positively associated with risk, which, in turn, is associated with firm performance. More importantly, information asymmetry is reduced when a director is a member of both the risk and compensation committees which moderate the negative association between risk and firm performance for firms with high risk.

Improving the measurement and surveillance of child abuse in Queensland emergency departments

There are no population studies of prevalence or incidence of child maltreatment in Australia. Child protection data gives some understanding but is restricted by system capacity and definitional issues across jurisdictions. Child protection data currently suggests that numbers of reports are increasing yearly, and the child protection system then becomes focussed on investigating all reports and diluting available resources for those children who are most in need of intervention. A public health response across multiple agencies enables responses to child safety across the entire population. All families are targeted at the primary level; examples include ensuring all parents know the dangers of shaking a baby or teaching children to say no if a situation makes them uncomfortable. The secondary level of prevention targets families with a number of risk factors, for example subsidised child care so children aren't left unsupervised after school when both parents have to be at work or home visiting for drug-addicted parents to ensure children are cared for. The tertiary response then becomes the responsibility of the child protection system and is reserved for those children where abuse and neglect are identified. This model requires that child safety is seen in a broader context than just the child protection system, and increasingly health professionals are being identified as an important component in the public health framework. If all injury is viewed as preventable and considered along a continuum of 'accidental' through to 'inflicted', it becomes possible to conceptualise child maltreatment in an injury context. Parental intent may not be to cause harm to the child, but by lack of insight or concern about risk, the potential for injury is high. The mechanisms for unintentional and intentional injury overlap and some suggest that by segregating child abuse (with the possible exception of sexual abuse) from unintentional injury, child abuse is excluded from the broader injury prevention initiative that is gaining momentum in the community. This research uses a public health perspective, specifically that of injury prevention, to consider the problem of child abuse. This study employed a mixed method design that incorporates secondary data analysis, data linkage and structured interviews of different professional groups. Datasets from the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) and The Department of Child Safety (DCS) were evaluated. Coded injury data was grouped according to intent of injury according to those with a code that indicated the ED presentation was due to child abuse, a code indicating that the injury was possibly due to abuse or, in the third group, the intent code indicated that the injury was unintentional and not due to abuse. Primary data collection from ED records was undertaken and information recoded to assess reliability and completeness. Emergency department data (QISU) was linked to Department of Child Safety Data to examine concordance and data quality. Factors influencing the collection and collation of these data were identified through structured interview methodology and analysed using qualitative methods. Secondary analysis of QISU data indicated that codes lacking specific information on the injury event were more likely to also have an intent code indicating abuse than those records where there was specific information on the injury event. Codes for abuse appeared in only 1.2% of the 84,765 records analysed. Unintentional injury was the most commonly coded intent (95.3%). In the group with a definite abuse code assigned at triage, 83% linked to a record with DCS and cases where documentation indicated police involvement were significantly more likely to be associated with a DCS record than those without such documentation. In those coded with an unintentional injury code, 22% linked to a DCS record with cases assigned an urgent triage category more likely to link than those with a triage category for resuscitation and children who presented to regional or remote hospitals more likely to link to a DCS record than those presenting to urban hospitals. Twenty-nine per cent of cases with a code indicating possible abuse linked to a DCS record. In documentation that indicated police involvement in the case, a code for unspecified activity when compared to cases with a code indicating involvement in a sporting activity and children less than 12 months of age compared to those in the 13-17 year old age group were all variables significantly associated with linkage to a DCS record. Only 13% of records contained documentation indicating that child abuse and neglect were considered in the diagnosis of the injury despite almost half of the sample having a code of abuse or possible abuse. Doctors and nurses were confident in their knowledge of the process of reporting child maltreatment but less confident about identifying child abuse and neglect and what should be reported. Many were concerned about implications of reporting, for the child and family and for themselves. A number were concerned about the implications of not reporting, mostly for the wellbeing of the child and a few in terms of their legal obligations as mandatory reporters. The outcomes of this research will help improve the knowledge of barriers to effective surveillance of child abuse in emergency departments. This will, in turn, ensure better identification and reporting practises; more reliable official statistical collections and the potential of flagging high-risk cases to ensure adequate departmental responses have been initiated.

Heritability and genome-wide linkage analysis of migraine in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island

Migraine is a common neurovascular disorder with a complex envirogenomic aetiology. In an effort to identify migraine susceptibility genes, we conducted a study of the isolated population of Norfolk Island, Australia. A large portion of the permanent inhabitants of Norfolk Island are descended from 18th Century English sailors involved in the infamous mutiny on the Bounty and their Polynesian consorts. In total, 600 subjects were recruited including a large pedigree of 377 individuals with lineage to the founders. All individuals were phenotyped for migraine using International Classification of Headache Disorders-II criterion. All subjects were genotyped for a genome-wide panel of microsatellite markers. Genotype and phenotype data for the pedigree were analysed using heritability and linkage methods implemented in the programme SOLAR. Follow-up association analysis was performed using the CLUMP programme. A total of 154 migraine cases (25%) were identified indicating the Norfolk Island population is high-risk for migraine. Heritability estimation of the 377-member pedigree indicated a significant genetic component for migraine (h2 = 0.53, P = 0.016). Linkage analysis showed peaks on chromosome 13q33.1 (P = 0.003) and chromosome 9q22.32 (P = 0.008). Association analysis of the key microsatellites in the remaining 223 unrelated Norfolk Island individuals showed evidence of association, which strengthen support for the linkage findings (P ≤ 0.05). In conclusion, a genome-wide linkage analysis and follow-up association analysis of migraine in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island provided evidence for migraine susceptibility loci on chromosomes 9q22.22 and 13q33.1.

The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis

Endometrial cancer is one of the most common female diseases in developed nations and is the most commonly diagnosed gynaecological cancer in Australia. The disease is commonly classified by histology: endometrioid or non-endometrioid endometrial cancer. While non-endometrioid endometrial cancers are accepted to be high-grade, aggressive cancers, endometrioid cancers (comprising 80% of all endometrial cancers diagnosed) generally carry a favourable patient prognosis. However, endometrioid endometrial cancer patients endure significant morbidity due to surgery and radiotherapy used for disease treatment, and patients with recurrent disease have a 5-year survival rate of less than 50%. Genetic analysis of women with endometrial cancer could uncover novel markers associated with disease risk and/or prognosis, which could then be used to identify women at high risk and for the use of specialised treatments. Proteases are widely accepted to play an important role in the development and progression of cancer. This PhD project hypothesised that SNPs from two protease gene families, the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs, including their tissue inhibitors, TIMPs) and the tissue kallikrein-related peptidases (KLKs) would be associated with endometrial cancer susceptibility and/or prognosis. In the first part of this study, optimisation of the genotyping techniques was performed. Results from previously published endometrial cancer genetic association studies were attempted to be validated in a large, multicentre replication set (maximum cases n = 2,888, controls n = 4,483, 3 studies). The rs11224561 progesterone receptor SNP (PGR, A/G) was observed to be associated with increased endometrial cancer risk (per A allele OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.12-1.53; p-trend = 0.001), a result which was initially reported among a Chinese sample set. Previously reported associations for the remaining 8 SNPs investigated for this section of the PhD study were not confirmed, thereby reinforcing the importance of validation of genetic association studies. To examine the effect of SNPs from the MMP and KLK families on endometrial cancer risk, we selected the most significantly associated MMP and KLK SNPs from genome-wide association study analysis (GWAS) to be genotyped in the GWAS replication set (cases n = 4,725, controls n = 9,803, 13 studies). The significance of the MMP24 rs932562 SNP was unchanged after incorporation of the stage 2 samples (Stage 1 per allele OR 1.18, p = 0.002; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.09, p = 0.002). The rs10426 SNP, located 3' to KLK10 was predicted by bioinformatic analysis to effect miRNA binding. This SNP was observed in the GWAS stage 1 result to exhibit a recessive effect on endometrial cancer risk, a result which was not validated in the stage 2 sample set (Stage 1 OR 1.44, p = 0.007; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.14, p = 0.08). Investigation of the regions imputed surrounding the MMP, TIMP and KLK genes did not reveal any significant targets for further analysis. Analysis of the case data from the endometrial cancer GWAS to identify genetic variation associated with cancer grade did not reveal SNPs from the MMP, TIMP or KLK genes to be statistically significant. However, the representation of SNPs from the MMP, TIMP and KLK families by the GWAS genotyping platform used in this PhD project was examined and observed to be very low, with the genetic variation of four genes (MMP23A, MMP23B, MMP28 and TIMP1) not captured at all by this technique. This suggests that comprehensive candidate gene association studies will be required to assess the role of SNPs from these genes with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray datasets curated as part of this PhD study identified a number of MMP, TIMP and KLK genes to display differential expression by endometrial cancer status (MMP2, MMP10, MMP11, MMP13, MMP19, MMP25 and KLK1) and histology (MMP2, MMP11, MMP12, MMP26, MMP28, TIMP2, TIMP3, KLK6, KLK7, KLK11 and KLK12). In light of these findings these genes should be prioritised for future targeted genetic association studies. Two SNPs located 43.5 Mb apart on chromosome 15 were observed from the GWAS analysis to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, results that were validated in silico in two independent datasets. One of these SNPs, rs8035725 is located in the 5' untranslated region of a MYC promoter binding protein DENND4A (Stage 1 OR 1.15, p = 9.85 x 10P -5 P, combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.13, p = 5.24 x 10P -6 P). This SNP has previously been reported to alter the expression of PTPLAD1, a gene involved in the synthesis of very long fatty acid chains and in the Rac1 signaling pathway. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray data found PTPLAD1 to display increased expression in the aggressive non-endometrioid histology compared with endometrioid endometrial cancer, suggesting that the causal SNP underlying the observed genetic association may influence expression of this gene. Neither rs8035725 nor significant SNPs identified by imputation were predicted bioinformatically to affect transcription factor binding sites, indicating that further studies are required to assess their potential effect on other regulatory elements. The other grade- associated SNP, rs6606792, is located upstream of an inferred pseudogene, ELMO2P1 (Stage 1 OR 1.12, p = 5 x 10P -5 P; combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.09, p = 3.56 x 10P -5 P). Imputation of the ±1 Mb region surrounding this SNP revealed a cluster of significantly associated variants which are predicted to abolish various transcription factor binding sites, and would be expected to decrease gene expression. ELMO2P1 was not included on the microarray platforms collected for this PhD, and so its expression could not be investigated. However, the high sequence homology of ELMO2P1 with ELMO2, a gene important to cell motility, indicates that ELMO2 could be the parent gene for ELMO2P1 and as such, ELMO2P1 could function to regulate the expression of ELMO2. Increased expression of ELMO2 was seen to be associated with increasing endometrial cancer grade, as well as with aggressive endometrial cancer histological subtypes by microarray meta-analysis. Thus, it is hypothesised that SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with rs6606792 decrease the transcription of ELMO2P1, reducing the regulatory effect of ELMO2P1 on ELMO2 expression. Consequently, ELMO2 expression is increased, cell motility is enhanced leading to an aggressive endometrial cancer phenotype. In summary, these findings have identified several areas of research for further study. The results presented in this thesis provide evidence that a SNP in PGR is associated with risk of developing endometrial cancer. This PhD study also reports two independent loci on chromosome 15 to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, and furthermore, genes associated with these SNPs to be differentially expressed according in aggressive subtypes and/or by grade. The studies reported in this thesis support the need for comprehensive SNP association studies on prioritised MMP, TIMP and KLK genes in large sample sets. Until these studies are performed, the role of MMP, TIMP and KLK genetic variation remains unclear. Overall, this PhD study has contributed to the understanding of genetic variation involvement in endometrial cancer susceptibility and prognosis. Importantly, the genetic regions highlighted in this study could lead to the identification of novel gene targets to better understand the biology of endometrial cancer and also aid in the development of therapeutics directed at treating this disease.

Assessment of socio-environmental drivers of suicide in Australia

This study examined the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide in Australia. The high risk areas were identified using advanced spatial analysis methods. Higher proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate and bigger temperature difference appeared to be among the main socio-environmental drivers of suicide across different places. Both temperature difference and unemployment were positively associated with suicide over time in general. Temperature difference seemed to affect suicide more in months when unemployment rates were high compared with the periods when unemployment rates were low. The findings may provide useful information for determining the socio-environmental impact on suicide and designing effective suicide control and prevention programs.

Impact of socio-ecological variability on the transmission of malaria in Yunnan Province, China

This thesis is a population-based epidemiological study to explore the spatial and temporal pattern of malaria, and to assess the relationship between socio-ecological factors and malaria in Yunnan, China. Geospatial and temporal approaches were applied; the high risk areas of the disease were identified; and socio-ecological drivers of malaria were assessed. These findings will provide important evidence for the control and prevention of malaria in China and other countries with a similar situation of endemic malaria.

Bioecological factors influencing women's alcohol consumption across the life span

Background Substantial changing trends in women’s alcohol consumption show increased proportions women drinking at risky/ high risk levels. Not confined to the younger female population, these increases are also occurring in older female age groups (aged 35 and over), posing a set of risks differing to those of their male counterparts. However, little research investigates the influences behind these changing trends. The current research examined multiple level influences (i.e. cultural, social and psychosocial on women’s drinking across a range of age groups. Methods Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with thirty-five women (aged 18-55) residing in Australia. Interview development was guided by an adaptation of Bronfenbrenner’s Bioecological Model of Development to assess multiple areas of influences from cultural through to psychosocial (i.e. intra-individual). Each interview took approximately 1 hour to complete. Findings Bronfenbrenner’s Bioecological Model could account for multiple-level factors impacting women’s drinking with multidirectional influences interacting across each level. Cultural influences included gender roles and national identity. Exosystem influences (e.g. infrastructure, legislation, and media) and microsystem influences (e.g. drinking context, family, partner and peer influence) were clearly identified as impacting drinking behaviours. Finally, at the psychosocial level, attitudes and expectations around the disinhibiting effects of alcohol and social facilitation emerged as key influences. Discussion The outcomes indicated the importance of these influences as women’s alcohol-related attitudes and behaviours changed across a woman’s life span and across age cohorts. Future research will build on these initial findings in order to underpin targeted interventions of the key factors influencing women’s drinking.

New strategy toward dioxin risk reduction for local residents surrounding severe dioxin hotspots in Vietnam

Background A public health intervention program with active involvement of local related stakeholders was piloted in the Bien Hoa dioxin hot spot (2007-2009), and then expanded to the Da Nang dioxin hot spot in Vietnam (2009-2011). It aimed to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure through foods for local residents. This article presents the results of the intervention in Da Nang. Methodology To assess the results of this intervention program, pre-intervention and post-intervention knowledge-attitude-practice (KAP) surveys were implemented in 400 households, randomly selected from four wards surrounding Da Nang Airbase in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Results After the intervention, the knowledge on the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high risk foods and preventive measures significantly increased (p < 0.05). 98% were willing to follow advice on preventing dioxin exposure. Practices to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure also statistical significantly improved (p<0.05). After intervention, 60.4% of households undertook exposure preventive measures, significantly higher than that of the pre-intervention survey (39.6%; χ2 =40.15 , P<0.001). High risk foods had quite low rates of daily consumption (from 0% to 2.5%) and were significantly reduced (p<0.05). Conclusions This is seen as an effective intervention strategy toward reducing the risk of human exposure to dioxin at dioxin hot spots. While greater efforts are needed for remediating dioxin polluted areas inside airbases, there is also evidence to suggest that, during the past four decades, pollution has been expanding to the surrounding areas. For this reason, this model should be quickly expanded to the remaining dioxin hot spots in Vietnam to further reduce the exposure risk in these areas.

Changes in the site distribution of common melanoma subtypes in Queensland, Australia over time: implications for public health campaigns

Abstract BACKGROUND: An examination of melanoma incidence according to anatomical region may be one method of monitoring the impact of public health initiatives. OBJECTIVES:   To examine melanoma incidence trends by body site, sex and age at diagnosis or body site and morphology in a population at high risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS:   Population-based data on invasive melanoma cases (n = 51473) diagnosed between 1982 and 2008 were extracted from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated using the direct method (2000 world standard population) and joinpoint regression models were used to fit trend lines. RESULTS:   Significantly decreasing trends for melanomas on the trunk and upper limbs/shoulders were observed during recent years for both sexes under the age of 40 years and among males aged 40-59years. However, in the 60 and over age group, the incidence of melanoma is continuing to increase at all sites (apart from the trunk) for males and on the scalp/neck and upper limbs/shoulders for females. Rates of nodular melanoma are currently decreasing on the trunk and lower limbs. In contrast, superficial spreading melanoma is significantly increasing on the scalp/neck and lower limbs, along with substantial increases in lentigo maligna melanoma since the late 1990s at all sites apart from the lower limbs. CONCLUSIONS:   In this large study we have observed significant decreases in rates of invasive melanoma in the younger age groups on less frequently exposed body sites. These results may provide some indirect evidence of the impact of long-running primary prevention campaigns.

Interventions to decrease skin cancer risk in outdoor workers : update to a 2007 systematic review

BACKGROUND: Outdoor workers are at high risk of harmful ultraviolet radiation exposure and are identified as an at risk group for the development of skin cancer. This systematic evidence based review provides an update to a previous review published in 2007 about interventions for the prevention of skin cancer in outdoor workers. RESULTS: This review includes interventions published between 2007-2012 and presents findings about sun protection behaviours and/or objective measures of skin cancer risk. Six papers met inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Large studies with extended follow-up times demonstrated the efficacy of educational and multi-component interventions to increase sun protection, with some higher use of personal protective equipment such as sunscreen. However, there is less evidence for the effectiveness of policy or specific intervention components. CONCLUSIONS: Further research aimed at improving overall attitudes towards sun protection in outdoor workers is needed to provide an overarching framework.

Physical activity and health-related quality of life among physiotherapists : a cross sectional survey in an Australian hospital and health service

Background Physiotherapists are a professional group with a high rate of attrition and at high risk of musculoskeletal disorders. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the physical activity levels and health-related quality of life of physiotherapists working in metropolitan clinical settings in an Australian hospital and health service. It was hypothesized that practicing physiotherapists would report excellent health-related quality of life and would already be physically active. Such a finding would add weight to a claim that general physical activity conditioning strategies may not be useful for preventing musculoskeletal disorders among active healthy physiotherapists, but rather, future investigations should focus on the development and evaluation of role specific conditioning strategies. Methods A questionnaire was completed by 44 physiotherapists from three inpatient units and three ambulatory clinics (63.7% response rate). Physical activity levels were reported using the Active Australia Survey. Health-related quality of life was examined using the EQ-5D instrument. Physical activity and EQ-5D data were examined using conventional descriptive statistics; with domain responses for the EQ-5D presented in a frequency histogram. Results The majority of physiotherapists in this sample were younger than 30 years of age (n = 25, 56.8%) consistent with the presence of a high attrition rate. Almost all respondents exceeded minimum recommended physical activity guidelines (n = 40, 90.9%). Overall the respondents engaged in more vigorous physical activity (median = 180 minutes) and walking (median = 135 minutes) than moderate exercise (median = 35 minutes) each week. Thirty-seven (84.1%) participants reported no pain or discomfort impacting their health-related quality of life, with most (n = 35,79.5%) being in full health. Conclusions Physical-conditioning based interventions for the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders among practicing physiotherapists may be better targeted to role or task specific conditioning rather than general physical conditioning among this physically active population. It is plausible that an inherent attrition of physiotherapists may occur among those not as active or healthy as therapists who cope with the physical demands of clinical practice. Extrapolation of findings from this study may be limited due to the sample characteristics. However, this investigation addressed the study objectives and has provided a foundation for larger scale longitudinal investigations in this field.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

The epidemiology of basal cell carcinoma

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a skin cancer of particular importance to the Australian community. Its rate of occurrence is highest in Queensland, where 1% to 2% of people are newly affected annually. This is an order of magnitude higher than corresponding incidence estimates in European and North American populations. Individuals with a sun-sensitive complexion are particularly susceptible because sun exposure is the single most important causative agent, as shown by the anatomic distribution of BCC which is in general consistent with the levels of sun exposure across body sites. A distinguishing feature of BCC is the occurrence of multiple primary tumours within individuals, synchronously or over time, and their diagnosis and treatment costs contribute substantially to the major public health burden caused by BCC. A primary knowledge gap about BCC pathogenesis however was an understanding of the true frequency of multiple BCC occurrences and their body distribution, and why a proportion of people do develop more than one BCC in their life. This research project sought to address this gap under an overarching research aim to better understand the detailed epidemiology of BCC with the ultimate goal of reducing the burden of this skin cancer through prevention. The particular aim was to document prospectively the rate of BCC occurrence and its associations with constitutional and environmental (solar) factors, all the while paying special attention to persons affected by more than one BCC. The study built on previous findings and recent developments in the field but set out to confirm and extend these and propose more adequate theories about the complex epidemiology of this cancer. Addressing these goals required a new approach to researching basal cell carcinoma, due to the need to account for the phenomenon of multiple incident BCCs per person. This was enabled by a 20 year community-based study of skin cancer in Australians that provided the methodological foundation for this thesis. Study participants were originally randomly selected in 1986 from the electoral register of all adult residents of the subtropical township of Nambour in Queensland, Australia. On various occasions during the study, participants were fully examined by dermatologists who documented cumulative photodamage as well as skin cancers. Participants completed standard questionnaires about skin cancer-related factors, and consented to have any diagnosed skin cancers notified to the investigators by regional pathology laboratories in Queensland. These methods allowed 100% ascertainment of histologically confirmed BCCs in this study population. 1339 participants had complete follow-up to the end of 2007. Statistical analyses in this thesis were carried out using SAS and SUDAAN statistical software packages. Modelling methods, including multivariate logistic regressions, allowed for repeated measures in terms of multiple BCCs per person. This innovative approach gave new findings on two levels, presented in five chapters as scientific papers: 1. Incidence of basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and detailed anatomic distribution: longitudinal study of an Australian population The incidence of people affected multiple times by BCC was 705 per 100,000 person years compared to an incidence rate of people singly affected of 935 per 100,000 person years. Among multiply and singly affected persons alike, site-specific BCC incidence rates were far highest on facial subsites, followed by upper limbs, trunk, and then lower limbs 2. Melanocytic nevi and basal cell carcinoma: is there an association? BCC risk was significantly increased in those with forearm nevi (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.43, 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 1.09-1.89) compared to people without forearm nevi, especially among those who spent their time mainly outdoors (OR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3) compared to those who spent their time mainly indoors. Nevi on the back were not associated with BCC. 3. Clinical signs of photodamage are associated with basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and site: a 16-year longitudinal study Over a 16-year follow-up period, 58% of people affected by BCC developed more than one BCC. Among these people 60% developed BCCs across different anatomic sites. Participants with high numbers of solar keratoses, compared to people without solar keratoses, were most likely to experience the highest BCC counts overall (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-13.5). Occurrences of BCC on the trunk (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-7.6) and on the limbs (OR 3.7, 95%CI 2.0-7.0) were strongly associated with high numbers of solar keratoses on these sites. 4. Occurrence and determinants of basal cell carcinoma by histological subtype in an Australian community Among 1202 BCCs, 77% had a single growth pattern and 23% were of mixed histological composition. Among all BCCs the nodular followed by the superficial growth patterns were commonest. Risk of nodular and superficial BCCs on the head was raised if 5 or more solar keratoses were present on the face (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.2-2.7 and OR 4.5, 95%CI 2.1-9.7 respectively) and similarly on the trunk in the presence of multiple solar keratoses on the trunk (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.5-11.9 and OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.1-4.4 respectively). 5. Basal cell carcinoma and measures of cumulative sun exposure: an Australian longitudinal community-based study Dermal elastosis was more likely to be seen adjacent to head and neck BCCs than trunk BCCs (p=0.01). Severity of dermal elastosis increased on each site with increasing clinical signs of cutaneous sun damage on that site. BCCs that occurred without perilesional elastosis per se, were always found in an anatomic region with signs of photodamage. This thesis thus has identified the magnitude of the burden of multiple BCCs. It does not support the view that people affected by more than one BCC represent a distinct group of people who are prone to BCCs on certain body sites. The results also demonstrate that BCCs regardless of site, histology or order of occurrence are strongly associated with cumulative sun exposure causing photodamage to the skin, and hence challenge the view that BCCs occurring on body sites with typically low opportunities for sun exposure or of the superficial growth pattern are different in their association with the sun from those on typically sun-exposed sites, or nodular BCCs, respectively. Through dissemination in the scientific and medical literature, and to the community at large, these findings can ultimately assist in the primary and secondary prevention of BCC, perhaps especially in high-risk populations.