Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Heidelberg Retina Tomograph in Glaucoma Case-finding

Purpose: To compare the disease classification using optic nerve head imaging against clinical examination combined with perimetry in the case-finding environment.Methods: During a glaucoma screening event at the University Hospital in Lausanne 148 attendees opted to undergo an extended screening exam consisting of perimetry with Octopus (Haag-Streit, Koeniz, Switzerland), tonometry, gonioscopy, slit-lamp optic nerve head examination and Heidelberg Retinal Tomorgraph (HRT, Heidelberg engineering). Classification criteria of an abnormal clinical exam consisted of a cup to disc ratio > 0.6, other disc abnormality (e.g. notching), closed angles, Van Herrick < ¼ and intraocular pressure >21mmHg. In perimetry a square root loss variance (sLV) >3.0 dB was considered abnormal. Those cases with both an abnormal clinical exam and abnormal perimetric results were considered to be glaucoma suspects. An abnormal HRT exam was a global Moorfields Regression Analysis (MRA) result of "outside normal limits". The results from the worse eye for each instrument are reported.Results: The mean age of the patients was 59.9 years (SD ±14.8years). 46 subjects failed the clinical exam. 55 subjects had sLV>3.0dB. 86 subjects failed one or more of the testing components, 21 subjects failed both the clinical exam and perimetry. Two cases of advanced glaucoma were diagnosed on the day of the event. 20 subjects were referred due to other ocular pathology (10 cataract; 2 AMD; 8 other). 16 subjects were outside normal limits with the HRT, of which 11 failed the clinical exam, 9 failed the perimetric exam and 7 failed all three. HRT had a sensitivity of 33% CI [15%,57%] with a specificity of 93% CI [87%,97%].Conclusions: HRT shows good specificity, however the low sensitivity makes it of limited use in the proposed case finding scenario.

Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. METHODS: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). RESULTS: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases <45 years, 73% for cases >60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases.

Autosomal Recessive Posterior Microphthalmos/Nanophthalmos is Caused by Loss-of-function Mutations in LOC646960, a Novel Gene Encoding a Trypsin-like Serine Protease

Purpose: Posterior microphthalmos (MCOP)/nanophthalmos (NNO) is a developmental anomaly characterized by extreme hyperopia due to short axial length. The population of the Faroe Islands shows a high prevalence of an autosomal recessive form (arMCOP). The gene mutated in arMCOP is not yet known.Methods: Genetic mapping by linkage analysis using microsatellite and single nucleotide polymorphisms, mutation analysis by PCR and sequencing, molecular modellingResults: Having refined the position of the disease locus (MCOP6) in an interval of 250 kb in chromosome 2q37.1 in Faroese families, we detected 3 mutations in a novel gene, LOC646960: Patients of 10 different Faroese families were either homozygous (n=22) for c.926G>C (p.Trp309Ser) or compound heterozygous (n=6) for c.926G>C and c.526C>G (p.Arg176Gly), whereas a homozygous 1 bp duplication (c.1066dupC) was identified in patients with arNNO from a Tunisian family. In two unrelated patients with MCOP, no LOC646960 mutation was found. LOC646960 is expressed in the human adult retina and RPE. The expression of the mouse homologue in the eye can be first detected at E17 and is highest in adults. The predicted protein is a 603 amino acid long secreted trypsin-like serine peptidase. c.1066dupC should result in a functional null allele. Molecular modelling of the p.Trp309Ser mutant suggests that both affinity and reactivity of the enzyme towards in vivo substrates are substantially reduced.Conclusions: Postnatal growth of the eye is important for proper development of the refractive components (emmetropization), and is mainly due to elongation of the posterior segment from 10-11 mm at birth to 15-16 mm at the age of 13 years. Optical defocus leads to changes in axial length by moving the retina towards the image plane. arMCOP may theoretically be explained, in line with the expression pattern of LOC646960, by a postnatal growth retardation of the posterior segment.

Fetal dose reduction in head and neck radiotherapy of a pregnant woman.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A pregnant woman was referred for post-operative radiotherapy of a malignant schwannoma in the head and neck region. A best-treatment plan was devised in order to minimize the fetal dose. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The fetal dose resulting from radiological examinations was determined according to international protocols, that resulting from radiotherapy was calculated according to Recommendation 36 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group. Pre-treatment dosimetry was performed with an anthropomorphic phantom. Several alternative treatment plans were evaluated. The use of a multileaf collimator (MLC) and a virtual wedge (VW) was compared to cerrobend blocks (CB) and physical wedge (PW). In-vivo dosimetry was performed using a vaginal probe containing thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD). RESULTS: The total fetal dose resulting from diagnostic and radiotherapy procedures was estimated to be 36 mGy. The technique based on MLC and VW was elected for patient treatment. Measurements for this configuration resulted in afetal dose reduction of 82%. The shielding of the patient's abdomen further reduced the fetal dose by 42%. CONCLUSION: The use of VW and MLC for the treatment of a pregnant woman is highly recommended. Each case should be individually studied with pre-treatment and in-vivo dosimetry.

The Effect of Amifostine on Acute and Late Radiation Side Effects in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Objective: We aimed to investigate the effect of amifostine on acute and late side effects, and its tolerability in head and neck cancer patients treated with radiotherapy (RT). Material and Methods: The study included 87 patients with primary head and neck cancers and cervical lymph node metastases from unknown primary cancers treated with RT alone or combined with chemotherapy (CT). Forty-one patients (47%) received amifostine combined with RT (ART group) and 46 patients (52%) received RT without amifostine (RT group). The patients were evaluated every week during the treatment and at month 1 and 2 after the completion of RT for acute side effects and month 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 after the treatment for late side effects according to SOMA/LENT scale. Amifostine was administered prior to RT, along with anti-emetic prophylaxis. The two groups were compared with the Student's t and Mann-Whitney U and Chi-square tests. Results: The ART group had significantly less toxicity (grade! 1 mucositis, grade 2 fibrosis) than patients in the RT group (p=0.001, p=0.03, respectively). At week 3 of RT grade 2 mucositis developed in two patients (5%) in the ART group and 10 patients (22%) in the RT group (p=0.02). The protective effect of amifostine on skin reactions developed at week 4 of RT (p=0.05). Grade 3 xerostomia at 9, 12, and 15 months of follow-up (p=0.02, p=0.02, and p=0.02, respectively), grade 2 xerostomia at 18 and 24 months (p=0.02 and p=0.01, respectively) and fibrosis at 15, 18 and 24 months (p=0.05, p=0.02 and p=0.02, respectively) decreased markedly in the ART group compared with the RT group. Emesis was the most common adverse effect of amifostine. Conclusion: Daily administration of amifostine during RT was effective in avoiding late grade 2-3 xerostomia, as well as grade 2 fibrosis.

History of diabetes and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis from the international head and neck cancer epidemiology consortium.

BACKGROUND: A history of diabetes is associated with an increased risk of several types of cancers. Whether diabetes is a risk factor for head and neck cancer (HNC) has received little attention. METHODS: We pooled data from 12 case-control studies including 6,448 cases and 13,747 controls, and estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between diabetes and HNC, adjusted for age, education level, sex, race/ethnicity, study center, cigarette smoking, alcohol use and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: We observed a weak association between diabetes and the incidence of HNC overall (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.95-1.24). However, we observed a modest association among never smokers (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.22-2.07), and no association among ever smokers (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.83-1.11); likelihood ratio test for interaction p=0.001. CONCLUSIONS: A history of diabetes was weakly associated with HNC overall, but we observed evidence of effect modification by smoking status, with a positive association among those who never smoked cigarettes. Impact: This study suggests that glucose metabolism abnormalities may be a HNC risk factor in subgroups of the population. Prospective studies incorporating biomarkers are needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between diabetes and HNC risk, possibly providing new strategies in the prevention of HNC.

Panitumumab plus radiotherapy versus chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (CONCERT-2): a randomised, controlled, open-label phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare panitumumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody against EGFR, plus radiotherapy with chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. METHODS: In this international, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial, we recruited patients with locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck from 22 sites in eight countries worldwide. Patients aged 18 years and older with stage III, IVa, or IVb, previously untreated, measurable (≥10 mm for at least one dimension), locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (non-nasopharygeal) and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1 were randomly assigned (2:3) by an independent vendor to open-label chemoradiotherapy (two cycles of cisplatin 100 mg/m(2) during radiotherapy) or to radiotherapy plus panitumumab (three cycles of panitumumab 9 mg/kg every 3 weeks administered with radiotherapy) using a stratified randomisation with a block size of five. All patients received 70-72 Gy to gross tumour and 54 Gy to areas of subclinical disease with accelerated fractionation radiotherapy. The primary endpoint was local-regional control at 2 years, analysed in all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of their assigned protocol-specific treatment (chemotherapy, radiation, or panitumumab). The trial is closed and this is the final analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00547157. FINDINGS: Between Nov 30, 2007, and Nov 16, 2009, 152 patients were enrolled, and 151 received treatment (61 in the chemoradiotherapy group and 90 in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group). Local-regional control at 2 years was 61% (95% CI 47-72) in the chemoradiotherapy group and 51% (40-62) in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. The most frequent grade 3-4 adverse events were mucosal inflammation (25 [40%] of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group vs 37 [42%] of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group), dysphagia (20 [32%] vs 36 [40%]), and radiation skin injury (seven [11%] vs 21 [24%]). Serious adverse events were reported in 25 (40%) of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group and in 30 (34%) of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. INTERPRETATION: Panitumumab cannot replace cisplatin in the combined treatment with radiotherapy for unresected stage III-IVb squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck, and the role of EGFR inhibition in locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck needs to be reassessed. FUNDING: Amgen.

Loss of the BMP Antagonist, SMOC-1, Causes Ophthalmo-Acromelic (Waardenburg Anophthalmia) Syndrome in Humans and Mice.

Ophthalmo-acromelic syndrome (OAS), also known as Waardenburg Anophthalmia syndrome, is defined by the combination of eye malformations, most commonly bilateral anophthalmia, with post-axial oligosyndactyly. Homozygosity mapping and subsequent targeted mutation analysis of a locus on 14q24.2 identified homozygous mutations in SMOC1 (SPARC-related modular calcium binding 1) in eight unrelated families. Four of these mutations are nonsense, two frame-shift, and two missense. The missense mutations are both in the second Thyroglobulin Type-1 (Tg1) domain of the protein. The orthologous gene in the mouse, Smoc1, shows site- and stage-specific expression during eye, limb, craniofacial, and somite development. We also report a targeted pre-conditional gene-trap mutation of Smoc1 (Smoc1(tm1a)) that reduces mRNA to ∼10% of wild-type levels. This gene-trap results in highly penetrant hindlimb post-axial oligosyndactyly in homozygous mutant animals (Smoc1(tm1a/tm1a)). Eye malformations, most commonly coloboma, and cleft palate occur in a significant proportion of Smoc1(tm1a/tm1a) embryos and pups. Thus partial loss of Smoc-1 results in a convincing phenocopy of the human disease. SMOC-1 is one of the two mammalian paralogs of Drosophila Pentagone, an inhibitor of decapentaplegic. The orthologous gene in Xenopus laevis, Smoc-1, also functions as a Bone Morphogenic Protein (BMP) antagonist in early embryogenesis. Loss of BMP antagonism during mammalian development provides a plausible explanation for both the limb and eye phenotype in humans and mice.

Concomitant chemoradiotherapy versus acceleration of radiotherapy with or without concomitant chemotherapy in locally advanced head and neck carcinoma (GORTEC 99-02): an open-label phase 3 randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Concomitant chemoradiotherapy and accelerated radiotherapy independently improve outcomes for patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of a combination of these approaches. METHODS: In our open-label phase 3 randomised trial, we enrolled patients with locally advanced, stage III and IV (non-metastatic) HNSCC and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2. We randomly allocated patients centrally with a computer program (with centre, T stage, N stage, and localisation as minimisation factors) in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy (70 Gy in 7 weeks plus three cycles of 4 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (70 Gy in 6 weeks plus two cycles of 5 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), or very accelerated radiotherapy alone (64·8 Gy [1·8 Gy twice daily] in 3·5 weeks). The primary endpoint, progression-free survival (PFS), was assessed in all enrolled patients. This trial is completed. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00828386. FINDINGS: Between Feb 29, 2000, and May 9, 2007, we randomly allocated 279 patients to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy, 280 to accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 281 to very accelerated radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 5·2 years (IQR 4·9-6·2); rates of chemotherapy and radiotherapy compliance were good in all groups. Accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy offered no PFS benefit compared with conventional chemoradiotherapy (HR 1·02, 95% CI 0·84-1·23; p=0·88) or very accelerated radiotherapy (0·83, 0·69-1·01; p=0·060); conventional chemoradiotherapy improved PFS compared with very accelerated radiotherapy (0·82, 0·67-0·99; p=0·041). 3-year PFS was 37·6% (95% CI 32·1-43·4) after conventional chemoradiotherapy, 34·1% (28·7-39·8) after accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 32·2% (27·0-37·9) after very accelerated radiotherapy. More patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group had RTOG grade 3-4 acute mucosal toxicity (226 [84%] of 268 patients) compared with accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (205 [76%] of 271 patients) or conventional chemoradiotherapy (180 [69%] of 262; p=0·0001). 158 (60%) of 265 patients in the conventional chemoradiotherapy group, 176 (64%) of 276 patients in the accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy group, and 190 (70%) of 272 patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group were intubated with feeding tubes during treatment (p=0·045). INTERPRETATION: Chemotherapy has a substantial treatment effect given concomitantly with radiotherapy and acceleration of radiotherapy cannot compensate for the absence of chemotherapy. We noted the most favourable outcomes for conventional chemoradiotherapy, suggesting that acceleration of radiotherapy is probably not beneficial in concomitant chemoradiotherapy schedules. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health.

Sports-related chronic repetitive head trauma as a cause of pituitary dysfunction.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is recognized as a cause of hypopituitarism even after mild TBI. Although over the past decade, a growing body of research has detailed neuroendocrine changes induced by TBI, the mechanisms and risk factors responsible for this pituitary dysfunction are still unclear. Around the world, sports-especially combative sports-are very popular. However, sports are not generally considered as a cause of TBI in most epidemiological studies, and the link between sports-related head trauma and hypopituitarism has not been investigated until recently. Thus, there is a paucity of data regarding this important concern. Because of the large number of young sports participants with near-normal life expectancy, the implications of undiagnosed or untreated postconcussion pituitary dysfunction can be dramatic. Understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms and risk factors of hypopituitarism caused by sports injuries is thus an important issue that concerns both medical staff and sponsors of sports. The aim of this paper was to summarize the best evidence for understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms and to discuss the current data and recommendations on sports-related head trauma as a cause of hypopituitarism.

Thyroid hormone reduces the loss of axotomized sensory neurons in dorsal root ganglia after sciatic nerve transection in adult rat.

We have shown that a local administration of thyroid hormones (T3) at the level of transected rat sciatic nerve induced a significant increase in the number of regenerated axons. To address the question of whether local administration of T3 rescues the axotomized sensory neurons from death, in the present study we estimated the total number of surviving neurons per dorsal root ganglion (DRG) in three experimental group animals. Forty-five days following rat sciatic nerve transection, the lumbar (L4 and L5) DRG were removed from PBS-control, T3-treated as well as from unoperated rats, and serial sections (1 microm) were cut. The physical dissector method was used to estimate the total number of sensory neurons in the DRGs. Our results revealed that in PBS-control rats transection of sciatic nerve leads to a significant (P < 0.001) decrease in the mean number of sensory neurons (8743.8 +/- 748.6) compared with the number of neurons in nontransected ganglion (mean 13,293.7 +/- 1368.4). However, administration of T3 immediately after sciatic nerve transection rescues a great number of axotomized neurons so that their mean neuron number (12,045.8 +/- 929.8) is not significantly different from the mean number of neurons in the nontransected ganglion. In addition, the volume of ganglia showed a similar tendency. These results suggest that T3 rescues a high number of axotomized sensory neurons from death and allows these cells to grow new axons. We believe that the relative preservation of neurons is important in considering future therapeutic approaches of human peripheral nerve lesion and sensory neuropathy.

Multifactorial ERβ and NOTCH1 control of squamous differentiation and cancer.

Downmodulation or loss-of-function mutations of the gene encoding NOTCH1 are associated with dysfunctional squamous cell differentiation and development of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in skin and internal organs. While NOTCH1 receptor activation has been well characterized, little is known about how NOTCH1 gene transcription is regulated. Using bioinformatics and functional screening approaches, we identified several regulators of the NOTCH1 gene in keratinocytes, with the transcription factors DLX5 and EGR3 and estrogen receptor β (ERβ) directly controlling its expression in differentiation. DLX5 and ERG3 are required for RNA polymerase II (PolII) recruitment to the NOTCH1 locus, while ERβ controls NOTCH1 transcription through RNA PolII pause release. Expression of several identified NOTCH1 regulators, including ERβ, is frequently compromised in skin, head and neck, and lung SCCs and SCC-derived cell lines. Furthermore, a keratinocyte ERβ-dependent program of gene expression is subverted in SCCs from various body sites, and there are consistent differences in mutation and gene-expression signatures of head and neck and lung SCCs in female versus male patients. Experimentally increased ERβ expression or treatment with ERβ agonists inhibited proliferation of SCC cells and promoted NOTCH1 expression and squamous differentiation both in vitro and in mouse xenotransplants. Our data identify a link between transcriptional control of NOTCH1 expression and the estrogen response in keratinocytes, with implications for differentiation therapy of squamous cancer.

Effect of weight loss on resting energy expenditure in obese prepubertal children.

To assess the effect of weight loss on resting metabolic rate (RMR), the energy expenditure of eight obese prepubertal children (age 9 +/- 1 years; weight 48.7 +/- 9.1 kg; BMI 25.3 +/- 3.9) and of 14 age-matched children of normal body weight (age 9 +/- 1 years; weight 28.8 +/- 5.6 kg; BMI 16.5 +/- 1.7) was measured by indirect calorimetry. The obese children were reinvestigated after a mean weight loss of 5.4 +/- 1.2 kg induced by a six-months mixed hypocaloric diet. Before slimming, the obese group showed a higher daily energy intake than the control group (10.40 +/- 3.45 MJ/day vs 7.97 +/- 2.02 MJ/day respectively; P less than 0.05) but a similar value was observed per unit fat-free mass (FFM) (0.315 +/- 0.032 MJ/kgFFM/day vs 0.329 +/- 0.041 MJ/kgFFM/day respectively). The average RMR of the obese children was greater than that of the control group (5217 +/- 531 kJ/day vs 4477 +/- 506 kJ/day) but similar after adjusting for FFM (4728 +/- 3102 kJ/day vs 4899 +/- 3102 kJ/day). Weight loss resulted in a reduction in RMR (5217 +/- 531 kJ/day vs 4874 +/- 820 kJ/day), each kg of weight loss being accompanied by a decrease of RMR of 64 kJ (15.3 kcal) per day. The changes in RMR induced by weight loss paralleled the changes in FFM. No difference was found in average RQ in obese children vs controls (0.85 +/- 0.03 vs 0.87 +/- 0.03 respectively) and in the obese children before and after weight loss (0.87 +/- 0.02).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)