957 resultados para false negative rate
Resumo:
One reason for the neglect of the role of positive factors in cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) may relate to a failure to develop cognitive models that integrate positive and negative cognitions. Bandura [Psychol. Rev. 84 (1977) 191; Anxiety Res. 1 (1988) 77] proposed that self-efficacy beliefs mediate a range of emotional and behavioural outcomes. However, in panic disorder, cognitively based research to date has largely focused on catastrophic misinterpretation of bodily sensations. Although a number of studies support each of the predictions associated with the account of panic disorder that is based on the role of negative cognitions, a review of the literature indicated that a cognitively based explanation of the disorder may be considerably strengthened by inclusion of positive cognitions that emphasize control or coping. Evidence to support an Integrated Cognitive Model (ICM) of panic disorder was examined and the theoretical implications of this model were discussed in terms of both schema change and compensatory skills accounts of change processes in CBT. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, commonly found in long-term cane-growing fields in northern Queensland, are linked with both negative and positive growth responses by sugarcane ( Saccharum spp.), depending on P supply. A glasshouse trial was established to examine whether AM density might also have an important influence on these growth responses. Mycorrhizal spores ( Glomus clarum), isolated from a long-term cane block in northern Queensland, were introduced into a pasteurised low-P cane soil at 5 densities ( 0, 0.06, 0.25, 1, 4 spores/g soil) and with 4 P treatments ( 0, 8.2, 25, and 47 mg/kg). At 83 days after planting, sugarcane tops responded positively to P fertilizer, although responses attributable to spore density were rarely observed. In one case, addition of 4 spores/g led to a 53% yield response over those without AM at 8 mg P/kg, or a relative benefit of 17 mg P/kg. Root colonisation was reduced for plants with nil or 74 mg P/kg. For those without AM, P concentration in the topmost visible dewlap ( TVD) leaf increased significantly with fertiliser P (0.07 v. 0.15%). However, P concentration increased further with the presence of AM spores. Irrespective of AM, the critical P concentration in the TVD leaf was 0.18%. This study confirms earlier reports that sugarcane is poorly responsive to AM. Spore density, up to 4 spores/g soil, appears unable to influence this responsiveness, either positively or negatively. Attempts to gain P benefits by increasing AM density through rotation seem unlikely to lead to yield increases by sugarcane. Conversely, sugarcane grown in fields with high spore densities and high plant-available P, such as long-termcane-growing soils, is unlikely to suffer a yield reduction from mycorrhizal fungi.
Resumo:
The objective of this review is to draw attention to potential pitfalls in attempts to glean mechanistic information from the magnitudes of standard enthalpies and entropies derived from the temperature dependence of equilibrium and rate constants for protein interactions. Problems arise because the minimalist model that suffices to describe the energy differences between initial and final states usually comprises a set of linked equilibria, each of which is characterized by its own energetics. For example, because the overall standard enthalpy is a composite of those individual values, a positive magnitude for AHO can still arise despite all reactions within the subset being characterized by negative enthalpy changes: designation of the reaction as being entropy driven is thus equivocal. An experimenter must always bear in mind the fact that any mechanistic interpretation of the magnitudes of thermodynamic parameters refers to the reaction model rather than the experimental system For the same reason there is little point in subjecting the temperature dependence of rate constants for protein interactions to transition-state analysis. If comparisons with reported values of standard enthalpy and entropy of activation are needed, they are readily calculated from the empirical Arrhenius parameters. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
This thesis focuses on the theoretical examination of the exchange rate economic (operating) exposure within the context of the theory of the firm, and proposes some hedging solutions using currency options. The examination of economic exposure is based on such parameters as firms' objectives, industry structure and production cost efficiency. In particular, it examines an hypothetical exporting firm with costs in domestic currency, which faces competition from foreign firms in overseas markets and has a market share expansion objective. Within this framework, the hypothesis is established that economic exposure, portrayed in a diagram connecting export prices and real exchange rates, is asymmetric (i.e. the negative effects depreciation are higher than the positive effects of a currency depreciation). In this case, export business can be seen as a real option, given by exporting firms to overseas customer. Different scenarios about the asymmetry hypothesis can be derived for different assumptions about the determinants of economic exposure. Having established the asymmetry hypothesis, the hedging against this exposure is analysed. The hypothesis is established, that a currency call option should be used in hedging against asymmetric economic exposure. Further, some advanced currency options stategies are discussed, and their use in hedging several scenarios of exposure is indicated, establishing the hypothesis that, the optimal options strategy is a function of the determinants of exposure. Some extensions on the theoretical analysis are examined. These include the hedging of multicurrency exposure using options, and the exposure of a purely domestic firm facing import competition. The empirical work addresses two issues: the empirical validity of the asymmetry hypothesis and the examination of the hedging effectiveness of currency options.
Resumo:
Sepsis continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality as it can readily lead tosevere sepsis, septic shock, multiple organ failure and death. The onset can be rapid and difficult to define clinically. Despite the numerous candidate markers proposed in the literature, to date a serum marker for sepsis has not been found. The aim of this study was to assay the serum of clinically diagnosed patients with eithera Gram-negative or Gram- positive bacterial sepsis for elevated levels of nine potentialmarkers of sepsis, using commercially produced enzyme linked immunosorbent assays(ELISA). The purpose was to find a test marker for sepsis that would be helpful toclinicians in cases of uncertain sepsis and consequently expose false positive BC'scaused by skin or environmental contaminants. Nine test markers were assayed including IL-6, IL-I 0, ILI2, TNF-α, lipopolysaccharide binding protein, procalcitonin, sE-selectin, sICAM -1 and a potential differential marker for Gram-positive sepsis- anti-lipid S antibody. A total of 445 patients were enrolled into this study from the Queen Elizabeth Hospital and Selly Oak Hospital (Birmingham). The results showed that all the markers were elevated in patients with sepsis and that patients with a Gram-negative sepsis consistently produced higher median/range serum levels than those with a Gram-positive sepsis. No single marker was able to identify all the septic patients. Combining two markers caused the sensitivities and specificities for a diagnosis of sepsis to increase to within a 90% to 100% range. By a process of elimination the markers that survived into the last phase were IL-6 with sICAM -1, and anti-lipid S IgG assays Defining cut-off levels for a diagnosis of sepsis became problematic and a semi-blind trial was devised to test the markers in the absence of both clinical details and positive blood cultures. Patients with pyrexia of unknown origin and negative BC were included in this phase (4). The results showed that IL-6 with sICAM-l are authentic markers of sepsis. There was 82% agreement between the test marker diagnosis and the clinical diagnosis for sepsis in patients with a Gram-positive BC and 78% agreement in cases of Gram-negative Be. In the PUO group the test markers identified 12 cases of sepsis and the clinical diagnosis 15. The markers were shown to differentiate between early sepsis and sepsis, inflammatory responses and infection. Anti-lipid S with IL-6 proved be a sensitive marker for Gram-positive infections/sepsis.
Resumo:
Price increases seem to be an adequate way to improve the earnings of companies. This fact becomes especially crucial because of increased price competition in many markets. Price increases might lead to negative customer reactions, such as a lower perceived utility or a lower loyalty intention. Therefore, the question for managers remains how prices can be increased without losing customers. Results of our experimental study suggest that customers of energy suppliers rate the perceived utility of the offer relatively better when the price increase is combined with an additional modification of the product or accompanied by a new service. It becomes clear that intensifying service relations can offset the negative effects of price increases.
Resumo:
Background: Introducing neonatal screening procedures may not be readily accepted by parents and may increase anxiety. The acceptability of pulse oximetry screening to parents has not been previously reported. Objective: To assess maternal acceptability of pulse oximetry screening for congenital heart defects and to identify factors predictive of participation in screening. Design and setting: A questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional sample of mothers whose babies were recruited into the PulseOx Study which investigated the test accuracy of pulse oximetry screening. Participants: A total of 119 mothers of babies with false-positive (FP) results, 15 with true-positive and 679 with true-negative results following screening. Main outcome measures: Questionnaires included measures of satisfaction with screening, anxiety, depression and perceptions of test results. Results: Participants were predominantly satisfied with screening. The anxiety of mothers given FP results was not significantly higher than that of mothers given true-negative results (median score 32.7 vs 30.0, p=0.09). White British/Irish mothers were more likely to participate in screening, with a decline rate of 5%; other ethnic groups were more likely to decline with the largest increase in declining being for Black African mothers (21%, OR 4.6, 95% CI 3.8 to 5.5). White British mothers were also less anxious (p<0.001) and more satisfied (p<0.001) than those of other ethnicities Conclusions: Pulse oximetry screening was acceptable to mothers and FP results were not found to increase anxiety. Factors leading to differences in participation and satisfaction across ethnic groups need to be identified so that staff can support parents appropriately.
Resumo:
Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^
Resumo:
The increase in the number of financial restatements in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of market capitalization for restated companies. Prior literature did not differentiate between single and multiple restatements announcements. This research investigated the inter-relationships among multiple financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm’s rate of return in the form of three essays by differentiating between single and multiple restatement announcement companies. First essay examined the stock performance of companies announcing the financial restatement multiple times. The postulation is that prior research overestimates the abnormal return by not separating single restatement companies from multiple restatement companies. This study investigated how market penalizes the companies that announce restatement more than once. Differentiating the restatement announcement data based on number of restatement announcements, the results supported the non persistence hypothesis that the market has no memory and negative abnormal returns obtained after each of the restatement announcements are completely random. Second essay examined the multiple restatement announcements and its perceived resultant information asymmetry around the announcement day. This study examined the pattern of information asymmetry for these announcements in terms of whether the bid-ask spread widens around the announcement day. The empirical analysis supported the hypotheses that the spread does widen not only around the first restatement announcement day but around every subsequent announcement days as well. The third essay empirically examined the financial and corporate governance characteristics of single and multiple restatement announcements companies. The analysis showed that corporate governance variables influence the occurrence of multiple restatement announcements and can distinguish multiple restatements announcement companies from single restatement announcement companies.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a relationship between pressure to perform on state mandated, high-stakes tests and the rate of student escape behavior defined as the number of school suspensions and absences. The state assigned grade of a school was used as a surrogate measure of pressure with the assumption that pressure increased as the school grade decreased. Student attendance and suspension data were gathered from all 33 of the regular public high schools in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. The research questions were: Is the number of suspensions highest in the third quarter, when most FCAT preparation takes place for each of the 3 school years 2007-08 through 2009-10? How accurately does the high school's grade predict the number of suspensions and number of absences during each of the 4 school years 2005-06 through 2008-09? The research questions were answered using repeated measures analysis of variance for research question #1 and non-linear multiple regression for research question #2. No significant difference could be found between the numbers of suspensions in each of the grading periods nor was there a relationship between the number of suspensions and school grade. A statistically significant relationship was found between student attendance and school grade. When plotted, this relationship was found to be quadratic in nature and formed a loose inverted U for each of the four years during which data were collected. This indicated that students in very high and very low performing schools had low levels of absences while those in the midlevel of the distribution of school performance (C schools) had the greatest rates of absence. Identifying a relationship between the pressures associated with high stakes testing and student escape behavior suggests that it might be useful for building administrators to reevaluate test preparation activities and procedures being used in their building and to include anxiety reducing strategies. As a relationship was found, it sets the foundation for future studies to identify whether testing related activities are impacting some students emotionally and are causing unintended consequences of testing mandates.
Resumo:
Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.
Resumo:
The increase in the number of financial restatements in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of market capitalization for restated companies. Prior literature does not differentiate between single and multiple restatements announcements. This research investigates the inter-relationships among multiple financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm's rate of return in the form of three essays by differentiating between single and multiple restatement announcement companies. First essay examines the stock performance of companies announcing the financial restatement multiple times. The postulation is that prior research overestimates the abnormal return by not separating single restatement companies from multiple restatement companies. This study investigates how market penalizes the companies that announce restatement more than once. Differentiating the restatement announcement data based on number of restatement announcements, the results support for non persistence hypothesis that the market has no memory and negative abnormal returns obtained after each of the restatement announcements are completely random. Second essay examines the multiple restatement announcements and its perceived resultant information asymmetry around the announcement day. This study examines the pattern of information asymmetry for these announcements in terms of whether the bid-ask spread widens around the announcement day. The empirical analysis supports the hypotheses that the spread does widen not only around the first restatement announcement day but around every subsequent announcement days as well. The third essay empirically examines the financial and corporate governance characteristics of single and multiple restatement announcements companies. The analysis shows that corporate governance variables influence the occurrence of multiple restatement announcements and can distinguish multiple restatements announcement companies from single restatement announcement companies.
Resumo:
In recent years, some of the ramifications of the ocean acidification problematic derived from the anthropogenic rising of atmospheric CO2 have been widely studied. In particular, the potential effects of a lowering pH on tropical coral reefs have received special attention. However, only a few studies have focused on testing the effects of ocean acidification in corals from the Mediterranean Sea, despite the fact that this basin is especially sensitive to increasing atmospheric CO2. In this context, we investigated the response to ocean acidification of the two zooxanthellate coral species capable of constituting the main framework of the community, the endemic Cladocora caespitosa and the non-native Oculina patagonica. To this end, we examined the response of both species to pCO2 concentrations expected by the end of the century, 800 ppm, vs the present levels. Calcification rate measurements after 92 days of exposure to low pH conditions showed the same negative response in both species, a decrease of 32-35% compared to corals reared under control conditions. In addition, we detected in both species a correlation between the calcification rate of colonies in control conditions and the degree of impairment of the same colonies at low pH. Independent of species, faster growing colonies were more affected by decreased pH. After this period of decreased pH, we conducted a recovery experiment, in which corals reared in the acidic treatment were brought back to control conditions. In this case, normal calcification rates were reached in both species. Overall, our results suggest that O. patagonica and C. caespitosa will both be affected detrimentally by progressive ocean acidification in the near future. They do not display differences in response between native and non-native species but do manifest differential responses depending on calcification rate, pointing to a role of the coral genetics in determining the response of corals to ocean acidification.
Resumo:
The effect of decreasing aragonite saturation state (Omega Arag) of seawater (elevated pCO2) on calcification rates of Acropora muricata was studied using nubbins prepared from parent colonies located at two sites of La Saline reef (La Réunion Island, western Indian Ocean): a back-reef site (BR) affected by nutrient-enriched groundwater discharge (mainly nitrate), and a reef flat site (RF) with low terrigenous inputs. Protein and chlorophyll a content of the nubbins, as well as zooxanthellae abundance, were lower at RF than BR. Nubbins were incubated at ~27°C over 2 h under sunlight, in filtered seawater manipulated to get differing initial pCO2 (1,440-340 µatm), Omega Arag (1.4-4.0), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations (2,100-1,850 µmol kg-1). Increasing DIC concentrations at constant total alkalinity (AT) resulted in a decrease in Omega Arag and an increase in pCO2. AT at the beginning of the incubations was kept at a natural level of 2,193 +- 6 µmol kg-1 (mean +- SD). Net photosynthesis (NP) and calcification were calculated from changes in pH and AT during the incubations. Calcification decrease in response to doubling pCO2 relative to preindustrial level was 22% for RF nubbins. When normalized to surface area of the nubbins, (1) NP and calcification were higher at BR than RF, (2) NP increased in high pCO2 treatments at BR compared to low pCO2 treatments, and (3) calcification was not related to Omega Arag at BR. When normalized to NP, calcification was linearly related to Omega Arag at both sites, and the slopes of the relationships were not significantly different. The increase in NP at BR in the high pCO2 treatments may have increased calcification and thus masked the negative effect of low Omega Arag on calcification. Removing the effect of NP variations at BR showed that calcification declined in a similar manner with decreased Omega Arag (increased pCO2) whatever the nutrient loading.
Resumo:
Two haptophyte algae, Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica, were cultured at different temperatures and salinities to investigate the impact of these factors on the hydrogen isotopic composition of long chain alkenones synthesized by these algae. Results showed that alkenones synthesized by G. oceanica were on average depleted in D by 30 compared to those of E. huxleyi when grown under similar temperature and salinity conditions. The fractionation factor, alpha alkenones-H2O, ranged from 0.760 to 0.815 for E. huxleyi and from 0.741 to 0.788 for G. oceanica. There was no significant correlation of alpha alkenones-H2O with temperature but a positive linear correlation was observed between alpha alkenones-H2O and salinity with ~3 change in fractionation per salinity unit and a negative correlation between alpha alkenones-H2O and growth rate. This suggests that both salinity and growth rate can have a substantial impact on the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of long chain alkenones in natural environments.