The Development of Public Finances and Role of Fiscal Constraints in a Monetary Union: Example eurozone

This thesis is about the development of public debt and deficit in the eurozone, which has been in the center of attention for much of the new millennium. The debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios have changed significantly during the period of the European monetary integration, with sharp increases in the levels since the beginning of the financial crisis. We view the levels both before and after the establishment of the European Central Bank. The subject is complemented by a study of the restrictions on fiscal policy in the eurozone. The thesis begins with a review of the most central agreements in the Economic and Monetary Union, namely the Maastricht Treaty, the Stability and Growth Pact and the Fiscal Compact. We study the instructions and requirements provided by these contracts, with the emphasis being on the debt and deficit values. Furthermore, we view two theories that aim to provide us with information, whether the fiscal restrictions are useful or not. The second and empirical part consists of review on the debt and deficit levels in practice. We take a close look on the values for each of the currency union members. The third and last part summarizes the findings, and analyzes the reasons behind the changes. The result of the thesis is, that even though the levels of public debt and deficit have worsened since the beginning of the financial crisis, tight rules on fiscal policy might not be the best possible solution. Private sector has played a crucial part in the increase of the debt levels, and tight rules have their impact on the long awaited economic growth in the eurozone. It is obvious, though, that some form of fiscal guidelines with scientific ground are needed in order to avoid excessive and harmful debt and deficit levels. The main task is to make these guidelines a more essential part of the fiscal policy in each of the member countries.

Caractérisation des maladies respiratoires en lien avec les problématiques d’humidité excessive ou de moisissures dans les logements des étudiants universitaires

Résumé : PROBLÉMATIQUE: L’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures est maintenant reconnue comme un facteur important influençant la santé respiratoire. Cette problématique a été peu étudiée chez les étudiants universitaires, bien que vulnérables par leur faible revenu et leur statut de locataire. OBJECTIFS: Cette maîtrise vise à décrire la prévalence (a) de l’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et (b) des maladies respiratoires chez les étudiants universitaires, ainsi qu’à (c) examiner l’association entre l’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et ces maladies. MÉTHODES: En 2014, une enquête électronique a été réalisée auprès de 2097 étudiants enregistrés à l’Université de Sherbrooke (Québec, Canada). Lorsque possible, des questions et des scores validés ont été utilisés pour estimer les prévalences des maladies respiratoires (rhinite allergique, asthme et infections respiratoires), de l’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et des covariables (ex. : revenu annuel familial, statut tabagique, atopie familiale, caractéristiques de l’étudiant). Les associations entre cette exposition et ces maladies ont d’abord été examinées par des tests de chi-carré en utilisant un seuil alpha de 0,05. Des régressions logistiques multivariées ont ensuite été utilisées pour déterminer les associations brutes et ajustée entre cette exposition et les maladies respiratoires. Les analyses descriptives ont été pondérées pour le sexe, l’âge et le campus d’étude. RÉSULTATS: L’exposition à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures était fréquente parmi les participants (36,0%; Intervalle de confiance (IC)95% : 33,9-38,1). Ceux-ci ont également été nombreux à rapporter une rhinite allergique (23,9%; IC95% :22,0-25,8), de l’asthme (32,6%; IC95% : 30,5-34,7) et des infections respiratoires (19,4%; IC95% :17,7-21,2) au cours de la dernière année. Après ajustement, les associations demeuraient significatives entre l’exposition à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et la rhinite allergique (Rapport de cote (RC) : 1,30; IC95% : 1.05-1.60), l’asthme RC : 1,75; IC95% : 1,42-2,16), mais pas les infections respiratoires (RC : 1,07; IC95% : 0,85-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: La prévalence élevée de l’exposition résidentielle des étudiants universitaires à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures, de même que son association avec l’asthme et la rhinite allergique, mettent en lumière sa contribution potentielle à la forte prévalence des maladies respiratoires ayant une composante allergique dans cette population. Cette étude fournit un nouveau levier pour les organisations de santé publique et leurs partenaires afin d’adapter les stratégies préventives ciblant les logements insalubres, particulièrement chez les populations vulnérables.

Accidents at work by excessive efforts / inappropriate movements in nurses

Nurses continuously develop various activities that expose them to excessive force and inappropriate movements. Characterize the accidents reported by overexertion and inappropriate movements in Portuguese nurses during 2009 and 2010. Retrospective cross-sectional study, covering the period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. Were defined as inclusion criteria, be nurse and having notified by excessive straining and improper motion accident. The information was obtained by reference to the computer record of accidents at work General Administration of Health Services, relating to 672 nurses. There were 672 notifications of accidents by overexertion/ inappropriate moves in Portuguese nurses. The higher prevalence of these accidents was in nurses with over 10 years of service 277 (41.2%), 565 were female (42.6%) in the age group 25-29 (29.9%) and practice time for 555 shifts (82.6%). At admission there were 387 (57.3%) within 3 hours of work 330 (49.1%) and the third day after weekly rest 216 (32.1%). The Mobilization of patients was the most frequent cause of this accident 430 (64.0%). The main effects were the sprains and strains 321 (47.8%), mainly the trunk reached 367 (54.7%) and absenteeism caused 373 (55.5%). On average 17.7 days missed a total of 12.054 days. There was a high prevalence of accidents during the mobilization of prayer on patients so importante to invest in the implementation of mechanical equipment for the mobilization and transport of patients.

Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal

An important assumption in the statistical analysis of the financial market effects of the central bank’s large scale asset purchase program is that the "long-term debt stock variables were exogenous to term premia". We test this assumption for a small open economy in a currency union over the period 2000M3 to 2015M10, via the determinants of short- term financing relative to long-term financing. Empirical estimations indicate that the maturity composition of debt does not respond to the level of interest rate or to the term structure. These findings suggest a lower adherence to the cost minimization mandate of debt management. However, we find that volatility and relative market size respectively decrease and increase short-term financing relative to long-term financing, while it decreases with an increase in government indebtedness.

Kinematic and electromyographic analysis of the overhead squat in individuals showing excessive medial knee displacement

Dynamic knee valgus is a multi-planar motion that has been associated with anterior cruciate ligament injuries and patellofemoral pain syndrome. Clinical assessment of dynamic knee valgus can be made by looking for the visual appearance of excessive medial knee displacement (MKD) in the double-leg squat (DLS). The purpose of this dissertation was to identify the movement patterns and neuromuscular strategies associated with MKD during the DLS. Twenty-four control subjects and eight individuals showing MKD during the DLS participated in the study. Significant differences were verified between subjects that demonstrated MKD and a control (CON) group for the eletromyographic amplitude of adductor magnus, biceps femoris, vastus lateralis and vastus medialis muscles (p < 0.05), during the descending phase of the DLS. During the ascending phase were found group differences for adductor magnus and rectus femoris muscles (p < 0.05). Results from kinematic analysis revealed higher minimum and maximum values of ankle abduction and knee internal rotation angles (p < 0.05) for the MKD group. Also, individuals showing excessive MKD had higher hip adduction/abduction excursion. Our results suggested that higher tibial internal rotation and knee internal rotation angles in the initial position of the DLS are associated with MKD. The neuromuscular strategies that contributed to MKD were higher adductor magnus activation, whereas biceps femoris, vastus lateralis and vastus medialis activated more to stabilize the knee in response to the internal rotation moment.

Interest rate (in)sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt : economic analysis based on 2002-2015 empirical evidence

Interest rate sensitivity assessment framework based on fixed income yield indexes is developed and applied to two types of emerging market corporate debt: investment grade and high yield exposures. Our research advances beyond the correlation analyses focused on co- movements in yields and/or spreads of risky and risk-free assets. We show that correlation- based analyses of interest rate sensitivity could appear rather inconclusive and, hence, we investigate the bottom line profit and loss of a hypothetical model portfolio of corporates. We consider historical data covering the period 2002 – 2015, which enable us to assess interest rate sensitivity of assets during the development, the apogee, and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Based on empirical evidence, both for investment and speculative grades securities, we find that the emerging market corporates exhibit two different regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a positive sensitivity under the normal market conditions to a negative one during distressed phases of business cycles. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may approach interest rate risk management, evidencing that even plain vanilla portfolios of emerging market corporates, which on average could appear rather insensitive to the interest rate risk in fact present a binary behavior of their interest rate sensitivities. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Governed by the cycle : direct and inverted interest-rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.

Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.

Excessive blood pressure increase with exercise and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiac events

The association of an excessive blood pressure increase with exercise (EBPIE) on cardiovascular outcomes remains controversial. We sought to assess its impact on the risk of all-cause mortality and major cardiac events in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for stress testing. Exercise echocardiography was performed in 10,047 patients with known or suspected CAD. An EBPIE was defined as an increase in systolic blood pressure with exercise ≥80 mmHg. The endpoints were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events (MACE), including cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). Overall, 573 patients exhibited an EBPIE during the tests. Over a mean follow-up of 4.8 years, there were 1,950 deaths (including 725 cardiac deaths), 1,477 MI, and 1,900 MACE. The cumulative 10-year rates of all-cause mortality, cardiac death, nonfatal MI and MACE were 32.9%, 13.1%, 26,9% and 33% in patients who did not develop an EBPIE vs. 18.9%, 4.7%, 17.5% and 20.7% in those experiencing an EBPIE, respectively (p <0.001 for all comparisons). In Cox regression analyses, an EBPIE remained predictive of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.91, p = 0.004), cardiac death (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.46-0.98, p = 0.04), MI (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.52-0.86, p = 0.002), and MACE (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.86, p = 0.001). An EBPIE was associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality and MACE in patients with known or suspected CAD referred for stress testing.

How much are translation studies in debt to Soren Kierkegaard?

The significance of Jacques Derrida's philosophical contribution to translation studies is becoming more widely acknowledged, thanks to authors such as Lawrence Venuti, Kaisa Koskinen, Rosemary Arrojo, Lieven Tack and africa Vidal Claramonte. However, what remains unknown is the debt which Derrida owes to the thinking of SOren Kierkegaard. This article sets out this legacy for the purposes of presenting some basic principles of deconstruction and in order to further promote its dissemination in the area of translation studies. At the same time, this article aims to be both a tribute to the Danish philosopher and a recognition of his contribution to modern-day thinking. Ultimately, the objective of this piece of research is to demonstrate how the ramifications of Kierkegaard's ideas are still relevant and, to a certain extent, are present in the area of translation studies. Among other things, this article shows how notions which are so fundamental to Kierkegaardian thinking, such as subjectivity', decision', instant' or impossible' echo in several recent texts regarding translation studies.

The conditional performance of euro bond funds: evidence from Portugal during the debt crisis

This paper evaluates the performance of a survivorship bias-free data set of Portuguese funds investing in Euro-denominated bonds by using conditional models that consider the public information available to investors when the returns are generated. We find that bond funds underperform the market significantly and by an economically relevant magnitude. This underperformance cannot be explained by the expenses they charge. Our findings support the use of conditional performance evaluation models, since we find strong evidence of both time-varying risk and performance, dependent on the slope of the term structure and the inverse relative wealth variables. We also show that survivorship bias has a significant impact on performance estimates. Furthermore, during the European debt crisis, bond fund managers performed significantly better than in non-crisis periods and were able to achieve neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the crisis seems to be related to changes in funds’ investment styles.

Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Advanced Economies

This paper examines the impact of public debt on the economic growth in advanced economies over a period of 1946 to 2009, using an econometric approach. The findings suggested an inverse relationship between public debt and economic growth in advanced economies. These relationships were found to be significant as well. Model results also show that the real GDP growth rate does not decline sharply whether the public debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than 220%. The public debt-to-GDP ratio elasticity of the real growth rate shows that an increase of 1% in public debt/GDP category above 120% decreases the real GDP growth rate in 1.13%. The negative effect of public debt is only stronger on the real GDP growth rate in advanced economies when the public debt-to-GDP ratio is above 220%. Finally, these findings lead us to reassess the austerity agenda, and the governments should devise new strategies for public debt management in advanced economies, taking into account their economic and financial performance.

Escaping the debt trap: peripheral countries in prolonged debt crises and how to exit

This thesis is an interdisciplinary piece of academic research, situated within Critical Theory but engaging with other disciplines, mainly Political Economy and Politics, to tackle the topic at hand; sovereign debt crises. The thesis deals with the Problem of Debt and, more specifically, the Problem of Prolonged Sovereign Debt Crises, which is described in this thesis as the phenomenon of the “Debt Trap”. The specific question that will occupy us in this thesis is why countries appear unable to exit these prolonged debt crises. By exiting a debt crisis, we mean here a state of affairs in which a country has managed to render its debt sustainable, regain its democratic sovereignty, achieve economic recovery and, what is more, mitigate adverse effects of the crisis, especially in what human development, social inequality and poverty rates are concerned. This question is tackled through the use of an interdisciplinary approach that combines critical theory perspectives -which are grouped in two paradigms, the Subjectivity paradigm and the genealogies of Capitalism paradigm- with financialisation literature. The purpose is to form an interdisciplinary intellectual framework that will allow us to analyse with a critical perspective the two case studies of the Greek crisis from 2009 to 2015 and the Argentinean crisis from 1983 to 2005. The aim of the thesis is to develop a theoretical framework that allows us to deconstruct the various ideological approaches to these two particular cases of Debt traps, including neoclassical and neoliberal approaches, Conservative and Keynesian approaches and uncover the political, economic and class relation that underpin the prolonged crises that the two countries have experienced.