The dynamic adjustment of local government budgets : Does Spain behave differently?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si los municipios españoles se ajustan en presencia de un shock presupuestario y (si es así) qué elementos del presupuesto son los que realizan el ajuste. La metodología utilizada para contestar estas preguntas es un mecanismo de corrección del error, VECM, que estimamos con un panel de datos de los municipios españoles durante el período 1988-2006. Nuestros resultados confirman que, en primer lugar, los municipios se ajustan en presencia de un shock fiscal (es decir, el déficit es estacionario en el largo plazo). En segundo lugar, obtenemos que cuando el shock afecta a los ingresos el ajuste lo soporta principalmente el municipio reduciendo el gasto, las transferencias tienen un papel muy reducido en este proceso de ajuste. Por el contrario, cuando el shock afecta al gasto, el ajuste es compartido en términos similares entre el municipio – incrementado los impuestos – y los gobiernos de niveles superiores – incrementando las transferencias. Estos resultados sugieren que la viabilidad de las finanzas pública locales es factible con diferentes entornos institucionales.

Dynamic compact thermal models with multiple power sources: application to an ultrathin chip stacking technology

Whereas numerical modeling using finite-element methods (FEM) can provide transient temperature distribution in the component with enough accuracy, it is of the most importance the development of compact dynamic thermal models that can be used for electrothermal simulation. While in most cases single power sources are considered, here we focus on the simultaneous presence of multiple sources. The thermal model will be in the form of a thermal impedance matrix containing the thermal impedance transfer functions between two arbitrary ports. Eachindividual transfer function element ( ) is obtained from the analysis of the thermal temperature transient at node ¿ ¿ after a power step at node ¿ .¿ Different options for multiexponential transient analysis are detailed and compared. Among the options explored, small thermal models can be obtained by constrained nonlinear least squares (NLSQ) methods if the order is selected properly using validation signals. The methods are applied to the extraction of dynamic compact thermal models for a new ultrathin chip stack technology (UTCS).

On-line event detection by recursive dynamic principal component analysis and gas sensor arrays under drift conditions

Leakage detection is an important issue in many chemical sensing applications. Leakage detection hy thresholds suffers from important drawbacks when sensors have serious drifts or they are affected by cross-sensitivities. Here we present an adaptive method based in a Dynamic Principal Component Analysis that models the relationships between the sensors in the may. In normal conditions a certain variance distribution characterizes sensor signals. However, in the presence of a new source of variance the PCA decomposition changes drastically. In order to prevent the influence of sensor drifts the model is adaptive and it is calculated in a recursive manner with minimum computational effort. The behavior of this technique is studied with synthetic signals and with real signals arising by oil vapor leakages in an air compressor. Results clearly demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Nonlinear inverse dynamic models of gas sensing systems based on chemical sensor arrays for quantitative measurements

Gas sensing systems based on low-cost chemical sensor arrays are gaining interest for the analysis of multicomponent gas mixtures. These sensors show different problems, e.g., nonlinearities and slow time-response, which can be partially solved by digital signal processing. Our approach is based on building a nonlinear inverse dynamic system. Results for different identification techniques, including artificial neural networks and Wiener series, are compared in terms of measurement accuracy.

The dynamic adjustment of local government budgets : Does Spain behave differently?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si los municipios españoles se ajustan en presencia de un shock presupuestario y (si es así) qué elementos del presupuesto son los que realizan el ajuste. La metodología utilizada para contestar estas preguntas es un mecanismo de corrección del error, VECM, que estimamos con un panel de datos de los municipios españoles durante el período 1988-2006. Nuestros resultados confirman que, en primer lugar, los municipios se ajustan en presencia de un shock fiscal (es decir, el déficit es estacionario en el largo plazo). En segundo lugar, obtenemos que cuando el shock afecta a los ingresos el ajuste lo soporta principalmente el municipio reduciendo el gasto, las transferencias tienen un papel muy reducido en este proceso de ajuste. Por el contrario, cuando el shock afecta al gasto, el ajuste es compartido en términos similares entre el municipio – incrementado los impuestos – y los gobiernos de niveles superiores – incrementando las transferencias. Estos resultados sugieren que la viabilidad de las finanzas pública locales es factible con diferentes entornos institucionales.

Dynamic structure function in 3-4He mixtures

Relevant features of the dynamic structure function S(q,¿) in 3-4He mixtures at zero temperature are investigated starting from known properties of the ground state. Sum rules are used to fix rigorous constraints to the different contributions to S(q,¿), coming from 3He and 4He elementary excitations, as well as to explore the role of the cross term S(3,4)(q,¿). Both the low-q (phonon-roton 4He excitations and 1p-1h 3He excitations) and high-q (deep-inelastic-scattering) ranges are discussed.

Characterization of gravitational rock slope deformations at different spatial scales based on field, remote sensing and numerical approaches

Rock slope instabilities such as rock slides, rock avalanche or deep-seated gravitational slope deformations are widespread in Alpine valleys. These phenomena represent at the same time a main factor that control the mountain belts erosion and also a significant natural hazard that creates important losses to the mountain communities. However, the potential geometrical and dynamic connections linking outcrop and slope-scale instabilities are often unknown. A more detailed definition of the potential links will be essential to improve the comprehension of the destabilization processes and to dispose of a more complete hazard characterization of the rock instabilities at different spatial scales. In order to propose an integrated approach in the study of the rock slope instabilities, three main themes were analysed in this PhD thesis: (1) the inventory and the spatial distribution of rock slope deformations at regional scale and their influence on the landscape evolution, (2) the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on rock slope instabilities development and (3) the characterization of hazard posed by potential rock slope instabilities through the development of conceptual instability models. To prose and integrated approach for the analyses of these topics, several techniques were adopted. In particular, high resolution digital elevation models revealed to be fundamental tools that were employed during the different stages of the rock slope instability assessment. A special attention was spent in the application of digital elevation model for detailed geometrical modelling of past and potential instabilities and for the rock slope monitoring at different spatial scales. Detailed field analyses and numerical models were performed to complete and verify the remote sensing approach. In the first part of this thesis, large slope instabilities in Rhone valley (Switzerland) were mapped in order to dispose of a first overview of tectonic and climatic factors influencing their distribution and their characteristics. Our analyses demonstrate the key influence of neotectonic activity and the glacial conditioning on the spatial distribution of the rock slope deformations. Besides, the volumes of rock instabilities identified along the main Rhone valley, were then used to propose the first estimate of the postglacial denudation and filling of the Rhone valley associated to large gravitational movements. In the second part of the thesis, detailed structural analyses of the Frank slide and the Sierre rock avalanche were performed to characterize the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on the geometry and on the failure mechanism of large instabilities. Our observations indicated that the geometric characteristics and the variation of the rock mass quality associated to ductile tectonic structures, that are often ignored landslide study, represent important factors that can drastically influence the extension and the failure mechanism of rock slope instabilities. In the last part of the thesis, the failure mechanisms and the hazard associated to five potential instabilities were analysed in detail. These case studies clearly highlighted the importance to incorporate different analyses and monitoring techniques to dispose of reliable and hazard scenarios. This information associated to the development of a conceptual instability model represents the primary data for an integrated risk management of rock slope instabilities. - Les mouvements de versant tels que les chutes de blocs, les éboulements ou encore les phénomènes plus lents comme les déformations gravitaires profondes de versant représentent des manifestations courantes en régions montagneuses. Les mouvements de versant sont à la fois un des facteurs principaux contrôlant la destruction progressive des chaines orogéniques mais aussi un danger naturel concret qui peut provoquer des dommages importants. Pourtant, les phénomènes gravitaires sont rarement analysés dans leur globalité et les rapports géométriques et mécaniques qui lient les instabilités à l'échelle du versant aux instabilités locales restent encore mal définis. Une meilleure caractérisation de ces liens pourrait pourtant représenter un apport substantiel dans la compréhension des processus de déstabilisation des versants et améliorer la caractérisation des dangers gravitaires à toutes les échelles spatiales. Dans le but de proposer un approche plus globale à la problématique des mouvements gravitaires, ce travail de thèse propose trois axes de recherche principaux: (1) l'inventaire et l'analyse de la distribution spatiale des grandes instabilités rocheuses à l'échelle régionale, (2) l'analyse des structures tectoniques cassantes et ductiles en relation avec les mécanismes de rupture des grandes instabilités rocheuses et (3) la caractérisation des aléas rocheux par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à développer un modèle conceptuel de l'instabilité et une meilleure appréciation du danger . Pour analyser les différentes problématiques traitées dans cette thèse, différentes techniques ont été utilisées. En particulier, le modèle numérique de terrain s'est révélé être un outil indispensable pour la majorité des analyses effectuées, en partant de l'identification de l'instabilité jusqu'au suivi des mouvements. Les analyses de terrain et des modélisations numériques ont ensuite permis de compléter les informations issues du modèle numérique de terrain. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, les mouvements gravitaires rocheux dans la vallée du Rhône (Suisse) ont été cartographiés pour étudier leur répartition en fonction des variables géologiques et morphologiques régionales. En particulier, les analyses ont mis en évidence l'influence de l'activité néotectonique et des phases glaciaires sur la distribution des zones à forte densité d'instabilités rocheuses. Les volumes des instabilités rocheuses identifiées le long de la vallée principale ont été ensuite utilisés pour estimer le taux de dénudations postglaciaire et le remplissage de la vallée du Rhône lié aux grands mouvements gravitaires. Dans la deuxième partie, l'étude de l'agencement structural des avalanches rocheuses de Sierre (Suisse) et de Frank (Canada) a permis de mieux caractériser l'influence passive des structures tectoniques sur la géométrie des instabilités. En particulier, les structures issues d'une tectonique ductile, souvent ignorées dans l'étude des instabilités gravitaires, ont été identifiées comme des structures très importantes qui contrôlent les mécanismes de rupture des instabilités à différentes échelles. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, cinq instabilités rocheuses différentes ont été étudiées par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à mieux caractériser l'aléa et à développer un modèle conceptuel trois dimensionnel de ces instabilités. A l'aide de ces analyses on a pu mettre en évidence la nécessité d'incorporer différentes techniques d'analyses et de surveillance pour une gestion plus objective du risque associée aux grandes instabilités rocheuses.

Disorder-induced critical phenomena in magnetically glassy Cu-Al-Mn alloys

Measurements of magnetic hysteresis loops in Cu-Al-Mn alloys of different Mn content at low temperatures are presented. The loops are smooth and continuous above a certain temperature, but exhibit a magnetization discontinuity below that temperature. Scaling analysis suggest that this system displays a disorder-induced phase transition line. Measurements allow one to determine the critical exponents ß=0.03±0.01 and ß¿=0.4±0.1, which coincide with those reported recently in a different system, thus supporting the existence of universality for disorder-induced critical points.

A Dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price

Summary

Visuo-spatial processing in a dynamic and a static working memory paradigm in schizophrenia.

Recent findings suggest that the visuo-spatial sketchpad (VSSP) may be divided into two sub-components processing dynamic or static visual information. This model may be useful to elucidate the confusion of data concerning the functioning of the VSSP in schizophrenia. The present study examined patients with schizophrenia and matched controls in a new working memory paradigm involving dynamic (the Ball Flight Task - BFT) or static (the Static Pattern Task - SPT) visual stimuli. In the BFT, the responses of the patients were apparently based on the retention of the last set of segments of the perceived trajectory, whereas control subjects relied on a more global strategy. We assume that the patients' performances are the result of a reduced capacity in chunking visual information since they relied mainly on the retention of the last set of segments. This assumption is confirmed by the poor performance of the patients in the static task (SPT), which requires a combination of stimulus components into object representations. We assume that the static/dynamic distinction may help us to understand the VSSP deficits in schizophrenia. This distinction also raises questions about the hypothesis that visuo-spatial working memory can simply be dissociated into visual and spatial sub-components.

Measurements of the bulk and interfacial velocity profiles in oscillating Newtonian and Maxwellian fluids

We present the dynamic velocity profiles of a Newtonian fluid (glycerol) and a viscoelastic Maxwell fluid (CPyCl-NaSal in water) driven by an oscillating pressure gradient in a vertical cylindrical pipe. The frequency range explored has been chosen to include the first three resonance peaks of the dynamic permeability of the viscoelastic-fluid¿pipe system. Three different optical measurement techniques have been employed. Laser Doppler anemometry has been used to measure the magnitude of the velocity at the center of the liquid column. Particle image velocimetry and optical deflectometry are used to determine the velocity profiles at the bulk of the liquid column and at the liquid-air interface respectively. The velocity measurements in the bulk are in good agreement with the theoretical predictions of a linear theory. The results, however, show dramatic differences in the dynamic behavior of Newtonian and viscoelastic fluids, and demonstrate the importance of resonance phenomena in viscoelastic fluid flows, biofluids in particular, in confined geometries.

Relevance of dynamic wetting in viscous fingering patterns

We demonstrate that wetting effects at moving contact lines have a strong impact in viscous fingering patterns. Experiments in a rotating Hele-Shaw (HS) cell, dry or prewetted, show consistent morphological differences. When the wetting fluid invades a dry region, contact angle dynamics yield a kinetic contribution to the interface pressure drop that scales with capillary number as Ca2¿3 but is significantly larger than the Park-Homsy kinetic correction. Numerical results are in very good agreement with experiments and show that standard HS equations work best for prewetted cells.