Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

One billion years of bZIP transcription factor evolution: conservation and change in dimerization and DNA-binding site specificity.

The genomic era has revealed that the large repertoire of observed animal phenotypes is dependent on changes in the expression patterns of a finite number of genes, which are mediated by a plethora of transcription factors (TFs) with distinct specificities. The dimerization of TFs can also increase the complexity of a genetic regulatory network manifold, by combining a small number of monomers into dimers with distinct functions. Therefore, studying the evolution of these dimerizing TFs is vital for understanding how complexity increased during animal evolution. We focus on the second largest family of dimerizing TFs, the basic-region leucine zipper (bZIP), and infer when it expanded and how bZIP DNA-binding and dimerization functions evolved during the major phases of animal evolution. Specifically, we classify the metazoan bZIPs into 19 families and confirm the ancient nature of at least 13 of these families, predating the split of the cnidaria. We observe fixation of a core dimerization network in the last common ancestor of protostomes-deuterostomes. This was followed by an expansion of the number of proteins in the network, but no major dimerization changes in interaction partners, during the emergence of vertebrates. In conclusion, the bZIPs are an excellent model with which to understand how DNA binding and protein interactions of TFs evolved during animal evolution.

Stochastic semiclassical cosmological models

We consider the classical stochastic fluctuations of spacetime geometry induced by quantum fluctuations of massless nonconformal matter fields in the early Universe. To this end, we supplement the stress-energy tensor of these fields with a stochastic part, which is computed along the lines of the Feynman-Vernon and Schwinger-Keldysh techniques; the Einstein equation is therefore upgraded to a so-called Einstein-Langevin equation. We consider in some detail the conformal fluctuations of flat spacetime and the fluctuations of the scale factor in a simple cosmological model introduced by Hartle, which consists of a spatially flat isotropic cosmology driven by radiation and dust.

Percolation and cluster Monte Carlo dynamics for spin models

A general scheme for devising efficient cluster dynamics proposed in a previous paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1541 (1994)] is extensively discussed. In particular, the strong connection among equilibrium properties of clusters and dynamic properties as the correlation time for magnetization is emphasized. The general scheme is applied to a number of frustrated spin models and the results discussed.

Static and dynamic structure of liquid metals: Role of the different parts of the interaction potential

The influence of different parts of the interaction potential on the microscopic behavior of simple liquid metals is investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. The role of the soft-core repulsive, short-range attractive, and long-range oscillatory forces on the properties of liquid lithium close to the triple point is analyzed by comparing the results from simulations of identical systems but truncating the potential at different distances. Special attention is paid to dynamic collective properties such as the dynamic structure factors, transverse current correlation functions, and transport coefficients. It is observed that, in general, the effects of the short-range attractive forces are important. On the contrary, the influence of the oscillatory long-range interactions is considerably less, being the most pronounced for the dynamic structure factor at long wavelengths. The results of this work suggest that the influence of the attractive forces becomes less significant when temperature and density increase.

Genetic vulnerability factor for schizophrenia: association with glutamate cysteine ligase modifier gene and abnormal enzyme activity

Background: We previously reported in schizophrenia patients a decreased level of glutathione ([GSH]), the principal non-protein antioxidant and redox regulator, both in cerebrospinal-fluid and prefrontal cortex. To identify possible genetic causation, we studied genes involved in GSH metabolism. Methods: Genotyping: mass spectrometry analysis of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplified DNA fragments purified from peripheral blood. Gene expression: real-time PCR of total RNA isolated from fibroblast cultures derived from skin of patients (DSM-IV) and healthy controls (DIGS). Results: Case-control association study of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) from the GSH key synthesizing enzyme glutamate-cysteine-ligase (GCL) modifier subunit (GCLM) was performed in two populations: Swiss (patients/controls: 40/31) and Danish (349/348). We found a strong association of SNP rs2301022 in GCLM gene (Danish: c2=3.2; P=0.001 after correction for multiple testing). Evidence for GCLM as a risk factor was confirmed in linkage study of NIMH families. Moreover, we observed a decrease in GCLM mRNA levels in patient fibroblasts, consistently with the association study. Interestingly, Dalton and collaborators reported in GCLM knock-out mice an increased feedback inhibition of GCL activity, resulting in 60% decrease of brain [GSH], a situation analogous to patients. These mice also exhibited an increased sensitivity to oxidative stress. Similarly, under oxidative stress conditions, GCL enzymatic activity was also decreased in patient fibroblasts. Conclusions: These results at the genetic and functional levels, combined with observations that GSH deficient models reveal morphological, electrophysiological, and behavioral anomalies analogous to those observed in patients, suggest that GCLM allelic variant is a vulnerability factor for schizophrenia.

Insight in protein S deficiency from mouse models

Protein S (ProS) is an important negative regulator of blood coagulation. Its physiological importance is evident in purpura fulminans and other life-threatening thrombotic disorders typical of ProS deficient patients. Our previous characterization of ProS deficiency in mouse models has shown similarities with the human phenotypes: heterozygous ProS-deficient mice (Pros+/-) had increased thrombotic risk whereas homozygous deficiency in ProS (Pros-/-) was incompatible with life (Blood 2009; 114:2307-2314). In tissues, ProS exerts cellular functions by binding to and activating tyrosine kinase receptors of the Tyro3 family (TAM) on the cell surface.To extend the analysis of coagulation defects beyond the Pros-/- phenotype and add new insights into the sites of synthesis ProS and its action, we generated mice with inactivated ProS in hepatocytes (Proslox/loxAlbCre+) as well as in endothelial and hematopoietic cells (Proslox/loxTie2Cre+). Both models resulted in significant reduction of circulating ProS levels and in a remarkable increased thrombotic risk in vivo. In a model of tissue factor (TF)-induced venous thromboembolism (VTE), only 17% of Proslox/loxAlbCre+ mice (n=12) and only 13% of Proslox/loxTie2Cre+ mice (n=14) survived, compared with 86% of Proslox/lox mice (n=14; P<0.001).To mimic a severe acquired ProS deficiency, ProS gene was inactivated at the adult stage using the polyI:C-inducible Mx1-Cre system (Proslox/loxMx1Cre+). Ten days after polyI:C treatment, Proslox/loxMx1Cre+ mice developed disseminated intravascular coagulation with extensive lung and liver thrombosis.It is worth noting that no skin lesions compatible with purpura fulminans were observed in any of the above-described models of partial ProS deficiency. In order to shed light on the pathogenesis of purpura fulminans, we exposed the different ProS-deficient mice to warfarin (0.2 mg/day). We observed that Pros+/-, Proslox/loxAlbCre+ and Proslox/loxTie2Cre+ mice developed retiform purpura (characterized by erythematous and necrotic lesions of the genital region and extremities) and died after 3 to 5 days after the first warfarin administration.In human, ProS is also synthesized by megakaryocytes and hence stored at high concentrations in circulating platelets (pProS). The role of pProS has been investigated by generating megakaryocyte ProS-deficient model using the PF4 promoter as Cre driver (Proslox/loxPf4Cre+). In the TF-induced VTE model, Proslox/loxPf4Cre+ (n=15) mice showed a significant increased risk of thrombosis compared to Proslox/lox controls (n=14; survival rate 47% and 86%, respectively; P<0.05). Furthermore, preliminary results suggest survival to be associated with higher circulating ProS levels. In order to evaluate the potential role of pProS in thrombus formation, we investigated the thrombotic response to intravenous injection of collagen-epinephrine in vivo and platelet function in vitro. Both in vivo and in vitro experiments showed similar results between Proslox/loxPf4Cre+ and Proslox/lox, indicating that platelet reactivity was not influenced by the absence of pProS. These data suggest that pProS is delivered at the site of thrombosis to inhibit thrombin generation.We further investigated the ability of ProS to function as a ligand of TAM receptors, by using homozygous and heterozygous deficient mice for both the TAM ligands ProS and Gas6. Gas6-/-Pros-/- mice died in utero and showed comparable dramatic bleeding and thrombotic phenotype as described for Pros-/- embryos.In conclusion, like complete ProS deficiency, double deficiency in ProS and Gas6 was lethal, whereas partial ProS deficiency was not. Mice partially deficient in ProS displayed a prothrombotic phenotype, including those with only deficiency in pProS. Purpura fulminans did not occur spontaneously in mice with partial Pros deficiency but developed upon warfarin administration.Thus, the use of different mice models of ProS deficiency can be instrumental in the study of its highly variable thrombotic phenotype and in the investigation of additional roles of ProS in inflammation and autoimmunity through TAM signaling.

The transcription factor NFATc2 controls IL-6-dependent T cell activation in experimental colitis.

The nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT) family of transcription factors controls calcium signaling in T lymphocytes. In this study, we have identified a crucial regulatory role of the transcription factor NFATc2 in T cell-dependent experimental colitis. Similar to ulcerative colitis in humans, the expression of NFATc2 was up-regulated in oxazolone-induced chronic intestinal inflammation. Furthermore, NFATc2 deficiency suppressed colitis induced by oxazolone administration. This finding was associated with enhanced T cell apoptosis in the lamina propria and strikingly reduced production of IL-6, -13, and -17 by mucosal T lymphocytes. Further studies using knockout mice showed that IL-6, rather than IL-23 and -17, are essential for oxazolone colitis induction. Administration of hyper-IL-6 blocked the protective effects of NFATc2 deficiency in experimental colitis, suggesting that IL-6 signal transduction plays a major pathogenic role in vivo. Finally, adoptive transfer of IL-6 and wild-type T cells demonstrated that oxazolone colitis is critically dependent on IL-6 production by T cells. Collectively, these results define a unique regulatory role for NFATc2 in colitis by controlling mucosal T cell activation in an IL-6-dependent manner. NFATc2 in T cells thus emerges as a potentially new therapeutic target for inflammatory bowel diseases.

High-throughput SELEX SAGE method for quantitative modeling of transcription-factor binding sites.

The ability to determine the location and relative strength of all transcription-factor binding sites in a genome is important both for a comprehensive understanding of gene regulation and for effective promoter engineering in biotechnological applications. Here we present a bioinformatically driven experimental method to accurately define the DNA-binding sequence specificity of transcription factors. A generalized profile was used as a predictive quantitative model for binding sites, and its parameters were estimated from in vitro-selected ligands using standard hidden Markov model training algorithms. Computer simulations showed that several thousand low- to medium-affinity sequences are required to generate a profile of desired accuracy. To produce data on this scale, we applied high-throughput genomics methods to the biochemical problem addressed here. A method combining systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX) and serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) protocols was coupled to an automated quality-controlled sequence extraction procedure based on Phred quality scores. This allowed the sequencing of a database of more than 10,000 potential DNA ligands for the CTF/NFI transcription factor. The resulting binding-site model defines the sequence specificity of this protein with a high degree of accuracy not achieved earlier and thereby makes it possible to identify previously unknown regulatory sequences in genomic DNA. A covariance analysis of the selected sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism.

Identification of Ligands for the Tau Exon 10 Splicing Regulatory Element RNA Using Dynamic Combinatorial Chemistry

We describe the use of dynamic combinatorial chemistry (DCC) to identify ligands for the stem-loop structure located at the exon 10-5'-intron junction of Tau pre-mRNA, which is involved in the onset of several tauopathies including frontotemporal dementia with Parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP-17). A series of ligands that combine the small aminoglycoside neamine and heteroaromatic moieties (azaquinolone and two acridines) have been identified by using DCC. These compounds effectively bind the stem-loop RNA target (the concentration required for 50% RNA response (EC(50)): 2-58 μM), as determined by fluorescence titration experiments. Importantly, most of them are able to stabilize both the wild-type and the +3 and +14 mutated sequences associated with the development of FTDP-17 without producing a significant change in the overall structure of the RNA (as analyzed by circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy), which is a key factor for recognition by the splicing regulatory machinery. A good correlation has been found between the affinity of the ligands for the target and their ability to stabilize the RNA secondary structure.

Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist gene (IL-1RN) polymorphism is a predictive factor of clinical pregnancy after IVF.

BACKGROUND: Only 25% of IVF transfer cycles lead to a clinical pregnancy, calling for continued technical progress but also more in depth analysis of patients' individual characteristics. The interleukin-1 (IL-1) system and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are strongly implicated in embryo implantation. The genes coding for IL-1Ra (gene symbol IL-1RN), IL-1beta, MMP2 and MMP9 bear functional polymorphisms. We analysed the maternal genetic profile at these polymorphic sites in IVF patients, to determine possible correlations with IVF outcome. METHODS: One hundred and sixty women undergoing an IVF cycle were enrolled and a buccal smear was obtained. The presence of IL-1RN variable number of tandem repeats and IL-1B + 3953, MMP2-1306 and MMP9-1562 single nucleotide substitutions were determined. Patients were divided into pregnancy failures (119), biochemical pregnancies (8) and clinical pregnancies (33). RESULTS: There was a 40% decrease in IL-1RN*2 allele frequency (P = 0.024) and a 45% decrease in IL-1RN*2 carrier status in the clinical pregnancy group as compared to the pregnancy failure group (P = 0.017). This decrease was still statistically significant after a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The likelihood of a clinical pregnancy was decreased accordingly in IL-1RN*2 carriers: odds ratio = 0.349, 95% confidence interval = 0.2-0.8, P = 0.017. The IL-1B, MMP2 and MMP9 polymorphisms showed no correlation with IVF outcome. CONCLUSIONS: IL-1RN*2 allele carriage is associated with a poor prognosis of achieving a pregnancy after IVF.

Beneficial effect of insulin-like growth factor-1 on hypoxemic renal dysfunction in the newborn rabbit.

Acute normocapnic hypoxemia can cause functional renal insufficiency by increasing renal vascular resistance (RVR), leading to renal hypoperfusion and decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) activity is low in fetuses and newborns and further decreases during hypoxia. IGF-1 administration to humans and adult animals induces pre- and postglomerular vasodilation, thereby increasing GFR and renal blood flow (RBF). A potential protective effect of IGF-1 on renal function was evaluated in newborn rabbits with hypoxemia-induced renal insufficiency. Renal function and hemodynamic parameters were assessed in 17 anesthetized and mechanically ventilated newborn rabbits. After hypoxemia stabilization, saline solution (time control) or IGF-1 (1 mg/kg) was given as an intravenous (i.v.) bolus, and renal function was determined for six 30-min periods. Normocapnic hypoxemia significantly increased RVR (+16%), leading to decreased GFR (-14%), RBF (-19%) and diuresis (-12%), with an increased filtration fraction (FF). Saline solution resulted in a worsening of parameters affected by hypoxemia. Contrarily, although mean blood pressure decreased slightly but significantly, IGF-1 prevented a further increase in RVR, with subsequent improvement of GFR, RBF and diuresis. FF indicated relative postglomerular vasodilation. Although hypoxemia-induced acute renal failure was not completely prevented, IGF-1 elicited efferent vasodilation, thereby precluding a further decline in renal function.

The activity of S.pombe DSC-1-like factor is cell cycle regulated and dependent on the activity of p34cdc2.

In the eukaryotic cell cycle, there are major control points in late G2 to determine the timing of the initiation of mitosis, and in late G1, regulating entry into S phase. In yeasts, this latter control is called start. Traverse of the start control and progression to S phase is accompanied by an increase in the expression of some of the genes whose products are required for DNA synthesis. In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the coordinate expression of these genes in late G1 is dependent on a cis-acting sequence element called the MluI cell cycle box (MCB). A transcription factor called DSC-1 binds these elements and mediates cell cycle regulated transcription, though it is unclear whether this is by cell cycle-dependent changes in its activity. A DSC-1-like factor has also been identified in the fission yeast S.pombe. This is composed of at least the products of the cdc10 and sct1/res1 genes, and binds to the promoters of genes whose expression increases prior to S phase. We demonstrate that p85cdc10 is a nuclear protein and that the activity of the S.pombe DSC-1 factor varies through the cell cycle; it is high in cells that have passed start, decreases at the time of anaphase, remains low during the pre-start phase of G1 and increases at the time of the next S phase. We also show that the reactivation in late G1 is dependent on the G1 form of p34cdc2.

Defective tumor necrosis factor-alpha-dependent control of astrocyte glutamate release in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer disease.

The cytokine tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha) induces Ca2+-dependent glutamate release from astrocytes via the downstream action of prostaglandin (PG) E2. By this process, astrocytes may participate in intercellular communication and neuromodulation. Acute inflammation in vitro, induced by adding reactive microglia to astrocyte cultures, enhances TNFalpha production and amplifies glutamate release, switching the pathway into a neurodamaging cascade (Bezzi, P., Domercq, M., Brambilla, L., Galli, R., Schols, D., De Clercq, E., Vescovi, A., Bagetta, G., Kollias, G., Meldolesi, J., and Volterra, A. (2001) Nat. Neurosci. 4, 702-710). Because glial inflammation is a component of Alzheimer disease (AD) and TNFalpha is overexpressed in AD brains, we investigated possible alterations of the cytokine-dependent pathway in PDAPP mice, a transgenic model of AD. Glutamate release was measured in acute hippocampal and cerebellar slices from mice at early (4-month-old) and late (12-month-old) disease stages in comparison with age-matched controls. Surprisingly, TNFalpha-evoked glutamate release, normal in 4-month-old PDAPP mice, was dramatically reduced in the hippocampus of 12-month-old animals. This defect correlated with the presence of numerous beta-amyloid deposits and hypertrophic astrocytes. In contrast, release was normal in cerebellum, a region devoid of beta-amyloid deposition and astrocytosis. The Ca2+-dependent process by which TNFalpha evokes glutamate release in acute slices is distinct from synaptic release and displays properties identical to those observed in cultured astrocytes, notably PG dependence. However, prostaglandin E2 induced normal glutamate release responses in 12-month-old PDAPP mice, suggesting that the pathology-associated defect involves the TNFalpha-dependent control of secretion rather than the secretory process itself. Reduced expression of DENN/MADD, a mediator of TNFalpha-PG coupling, might account for the defect. Alteration of this neuromodulatory astrocytic pathway is described here for the first time in relation to Alzheimer disease.

A comparison of three methods of Mendelian randomization when the genetic instrument, the risk factor and the outcome are all binary.

The method of instrumental variable (referred to as Mendelian randomization when the instrument is a genetic variant) has been initially developed to infer on a causal effect of a risk factor on some outcome of interest in a linear model. Adapting this method to nonlinear models, however, is known to be problematic. In this paper, we consider the simple case when the genetic instrument, the risk factor, and the outcome are all binary. We compare via simulations the usual two-stages estimate of a causal odds-ratio and its adjusted version with a recently proposed estimate in the context of a clinical trial with noncompliance. In contrast to the former two, we confirm that the latter is (under some conditions) a valid estimate of a causal odds-ratio defined in the subpopulation of compliers, and we propose its use in the context of Mendelian randomization. By analogy with a clinical trial with noncompliance, compliers are those individuals for whom the presence/absence of the risk factor X is determined by the presence/absence of the genetic variant Z (i.e., for whom we would observe X = Z whatever the alleles randomly received at conception). We also recall and illustrate the huge variability of instrumental variable estimates when the instrument is weak (i.e., with a low percentage of compliers, as is typically the case with genetic instruments for which this proportion is frequently smaller than 10%) where the inter-quartile range of our simulated estimates was up to 18 times higher compared to a conventional (e.g., intention-to-treat) approach. We thus conclude that the need to find stronger instruments is probably as important as the need to develop a methodology allowing to consistently estimate a causal odds-ratio.