The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

A value chain approach to animal diseases risk management: technical foundations and practical framework for field application

Classical risk assessment approaches for animal diseases are influenced by the probability of release, exposure and consequences of a hazard affecting a livestock population. Once a pathogen enters into domestic livestock, potential risks of exposure and infection both to animals and people extend through a chain of economic activities related to producing, buying and selling of animals and products. Therefore, in order to understand economic drivers of animal diseases in different ecosystems and to come up with effective and efficient measures to manage disease risks from a country or region, the entire value chain and related markets for animal and product needs to be analysed to come out with practical and cost effective risk management options agreed by actors and players on those value chains. Value chain analysis enriches disease risk assessment providing a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration, which seems to be in increasing demand for problems concerning infectious livestock diseases. The best way to achieve this is to ensure that veterinary epidemiologists and social scientists work together throughout the process at all levels.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

The risk of water stress

Water resources are under stress in many regions due to increasing demands and, in places, falling quality. Climate change has the potential to change the risks of water stress.1 The focus in this section is on strategic definitions of water stress, which are based on generalized indicators of the amount of water that is available and the demands on that resource. Operational definitions, on the other hand, are typically based on the reliability of the supply of appropriate quality water and are strongly determined by local conditions.

The risk of river flooding

This section of the report outlines the effect of different levels of climate change on exposure to river flood risk, at national and watershed scales.

The risk of drought

This section of the report summarises the effect of different levels of climate change on risk of drought.

Risk of Giardia infection for drinking water and bathing in a peri-urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil

A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.

Re-framing risk transfer to assess integrative partnership opportunities: the S.A.R. approach and the AIG/BID/CNO regional surety bond facility of 2007

Identificar, compartilhar e gerenciar os riscos de contratar são preocupações que impedem o estabelicmento e a administração das Parcerias Públicos Particulares (PPP). Porem, gerentes das entidades públicas, bancos de formento, construtoras e seguradoras pesquisam e utilizam muitas técnicas para enfrentar a avaliação e gerenciamento dos riscos. A transferência de risco é uma indicação dos chamados benefícios que são inspirados pelos PPP, contudo devido às realidades contratuais e conceptuais, a entidade de cede o risco (o partido público) permanece quase sempre como o portador final do risco. Conseqüentemente, o partido público retem um interesse de resistência na gerência total destes riscos cedidos. Esta dissertação explora alguns defeitos das aproximações comuns a conceituar a gestão de risco no contexto de um PPP. Focalizando os conceitos da interdependência e da reciprocidade e usando na decisão para transferir o risco do projeto, esta dissertação molda a decisão para transferir o risco nos termos das realidades interdependentes de relacionamentos sistemáticos, alargam os conceitos técnicos do risco e da avaliação de risco, considerando o uso reflexivo das diferenças na analise de um estudo de caso. O autor explora estes conceitos em uma análise da decisão de um gerente de risco da empresa de construção civil brasileira Construtora Norberto Odebrecht (ODB) para projetar uma facilidade inovadora da ligação de garantia com Inter-American Development Bank (BID) e uma seguradora, American International Group (AIG), um negócio que ganhe o reconhecimento Trade Finance Magazine’s 2007 deal of the year. O autor mostra que por compreender a transferência de risco nos termos abordados nesta dissertação, um atore que transfere o risco pode identificar e criar mais oportunidades de estabelecer relacionamentos em longo prazo, através dos processos que a literatura atual do PPP ainda não considere. Os resultados devem fornecer contribuições para a pesquisas sobre a transferência do risco do projeto, na cooperação entre organizações e na seleção do sócio do projeto do potencial.

A simple approach to integrate the ecotoxicological and chemical data for the establishment of environmental risk levels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Honey consumption in the state of São Paulo: a risk to human health?

Infantile botulism was recognized in 1976 as a paralyzing disease caused by the ingestion of viable spores that would germinate and colonize the intestinal tract of infants, with local production and absorption of Clostridium botulinum toxin. The possible origins of botulinic spores are dust and honey, which has been identified as a dietary risk factor for infantile botulism. The objectives of the present study were to investigate 100 honey samples obtained in the state of São Paulo (Brazil) in terms of incidence of botulinic spores and of microbiologic quality, in agreement with Decree 367/9. All 100 samples analysed were negative for the presence of Salmonella, Shigella, total coliforms. C botulinum spores were present in 3 samples (3%) and molds and yeasts, in 64 samples (64%), but only 25 (25%) exceeded established criteria, with counts ranging from zero to 1.5 x 10(5) CFU/g. The presence of small sporogenic Gram-positive rods was observed in 42 (42%) of the 100 samples tested but these bacteria were not identified. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of genetic damage induced by dental bleaching agents on mouse lymphoma cells by single cell gel (comet) assay

Dental bleaching is a simple and conservative procedure for aesthetic restoration of vital discoloured teeth. However, dental bleaching agents may represent a hazard to human health, especially by causing DNA strand breaks. Genotoxicity tests form an important part of cancer research and risk assessment of potential carcinogens. In the current study, the genotoxic potential associated with exposure to dental bleaching agents was assessed by the single cell gel (comet) assay in vitro. Six commercial dental bleaching agents (Clarigel Gold - Dentsply; Whitespeed - Discus Dental; Nite White - Discus Dental; Magic Bleaching - Vigodent; Whiteness HP - FGM and Lase Peroxide - DMC) were exposed to mouse lymphoma cells in vitro. The results pointed out that all dental bleaching agents tested contributed to the DNA damage as depicted by the mean tail moment. Clear concentration-related effects were obtained for DNA damaging, being the strongest effect observed at the highest dose of the hydrogen peroxide (Whiteness HP and Lase Peroxide, at 35% concentration). on the contrary, Whitespeed (Discus Dental) induced the lowest level of DNA breakage. Taken together, these results suggest that dental bleaching agents may be a factor that increases the level of DNA damage as detected by the single cell gel (comet) assay.

Pancreatic β-cell defects in women at risk of type 2 diabetes

We evaluated insulin release and insulin sensitivity in women with basal and/or postprandial hyperglycemia but normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in previous pregnancy (GHG). These women were individually matched with females without previous hyperglycemia (NGT). Both groups consisted of normal glucose-tolerant women at the time of this study. They underwent OGTT (75g; n= 32 pairs) and hyperglycemic clamp experiments (10mmoll-1; n=27 pairs) with plasma glucose, insulin, and C-peptide measurements and calculation of insulinogenic index, first- and second-phase insulin release, and insulin sensitivity index (ISI). The GHG group showed higher glycosylated hemoglobin levels (6.2±0.6% versus 5.8±0.8%; P<0.05); lower insulinogenic index at 30min (134.03±62.69pmolmmol-1 versus 181.59±70.26pmolmmoll-1; P<0.05) and diminished C-peptide response in relation to glucose (4.05±0.36nmolmmol-1 versus 4.23±0.36nmolmmol-1; P<0.05) at OGTT. Both groups did not show difference in insulin secretion and ISI by hyperglycemic clamp technique. We concluded that in up to 12 years from index pregnancy, women with previous GHG, presenting normal glucose tolerance and well-matched with their controls, showed β-cell dysfunction without change in ISI. As women with previous GHG are at risk of type 2 diabetes, β-cell dysfunction may be its primary defect. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polymorphisms of DNA repair genes XRCC1 and XRCC3, interaction with environmental exposure and risk of chronic gastritis and grastic cancer

Aim: To evaluate the association between polymorphisms XRCC1 Arg194Trp and Arg399Gln and XRCC3 Thr241Met and the risk for chronic gastritis and gastric cancer, in a Southeastern Brazilian population. Methods: Genotyping by PCR-RFLP was carried out on 202 patients with chronic gastritis (CG) and 160 patients with gastric cancer (GC), matched to 202 (C1) and 150 (C2) controls, respectively. Results: No differences were observed among the studied groups with regard to the genotype distribution of XRCC1 codons 194 and 399 and of XRCC3 codon 241. However, the combined analyses of the three variant alleles (194Trp, 399Gln and 241Met) showed an increased risk for chronic gastritis when compared to the GC group. Moreover, an interaction between the polymorphic alleles and demographic and environmental factors was observed in the CG and GC groups. XRCC1 194Trp was associated with smoking in the CG group, while the variant alleles XRCC1 399Gln and XRCC3 241Met were related with gender, smoking, drinking and H pylori infection in the CG and GC groups. Conclusion: Our results showed no evidence of a rela-tionship between the polymorphisms XRCC1 Arg194Trp and Arg399Gln and XRCC3 Thr241Met and the risk of chronic gastritis and gastric cancer in the Brazilian population, but the combined effect of these variants may interact to increase the risk for chronic gastritis, considered a premalignant lesion. Our data also indicate a gene-environment interaction in the susceptibility to chronic gastritis and gastric cancer. © 2005 The WJG Press and Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.