Inclusion of the European Nordic model in the debate concerning social protection reform: the long-term development of Nordic welfare systems (1890-2005) and their transferability to Latin America in the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: growth transitions rather than steady states

Includes bibliography

In search of work. International migration of women in Latin America and the Caribbean. Selected bibliography

Includes bibliography

The small economies of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

United States interest rates, Latin American debt and financial contagion

Includes bibliography

Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Access to international capital markets: recent developments in Central America and the Caribbean

The objective of this report is to analyze the impact of recent global financial trends on the access to private external financing by Central American and Caribbean (CAC) economies, as well as their performance in international capital markets in recent years. The CAC economies, like many other countries in the world, were not immune to the negative consequences of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008. In fact, their openness, export driven growth and linkages to advanced economies, particularly to the U.S., as well as size, made them more vulnerable than other Latin American countries to the negative effects of the crisis. In addition, their recovery was hindered by their weak linkages to the larger emerging market countries that drove global growth in the post-crisis recovery. As China and other emerging market economies begin to slowdown, however, and the U.S. and other advanced economies show signs of a strengthening recovery, the linkages to advanced economies may once again become a source of strength.

Metamorfoses de formadores de professores na educação em ciências modificando práticas na prática de formação docente a distância

Esta investigação qualitativa de abordagem narrativa é atinente às experiências de mudanças nas práticas de formadores de professores (entre os quais o pesquisador se inclui) vividas e narradas no âmbito de uma Licenciatura em Ciências Biológicas, desenvolvida na modalidade a distância em uma universidade pública federal. Esse curso apresenta uma estrutura descentralizada de funcionamento com turmas ofertadas nos municípios-polos de Marabá, Oriximiná e Capanema, no período de realização da pesquisa, e sede da coordenação em Belém. O objetivo que persigo nesta pesquisa consiste em investigar em que termos experiências diferenciadas de práticas de formação a distância influem para melhorar as práticas de formação presencial na educação em ciências. A tese que sustento se configura na compreensão de que experiências diferenciadas de formação de professores de ciências/biologia, vividas em contextos resistentes a modelos tradicionais de ação/formação, tendem a catalisar processos de mudanças auto-organizativas nas práticas dos formadores, repercutindo em diferentes níveis e modalidades de ensino em vista de parâmetros atuais da educação em ciências. A construção do material empírico nos municípios-polos ocorreu em duas etapas: a) Reuniões nos Grupos de Estudos e Formação (GEF) constituídos com as equipes de formadores em três municípios-polos do curso, cujas interações foram registradas em equipamento de áudio e vídeo com duração média 10 horas de filmagem por grupo. Durante as reuniões nos GEF defini como critérios de seleção dos sujeitos, cujas vozes constituíram o relato da tese, a formação profissional na área da biologia e o elevado nível e frequência de manifestações reflexivas durante as interações nos GEF, a partir dos quais selecionei 09 formadores, b) Entrevista semi-estruturada com os 09 sujeitos, registrada em equipamento de áudio com duração média de 50 minutos por sujeito. Na sede do curso a produção empírica se restringiu à realização de entrevistas semi-estruturadas com dois sujeitos selecionados em função da elevada frequência de manifestações espontâneas sobre mudanças em suas práticas formativas; sendo gravadas em equipamento de áudio cada entrevista durou em média 50 minutos. O material empírico foi organizado em três campos de atração narrativa identificados em eixos de convergência referentes a autoconhecimento, auto-organização e parâmetros emergentes das práticas formativas em Educação Científica, os quais originaram as três seções analíticas da pesquisa. A análise desse conteúdo narrativo revela a emergência de movimentos de mudanças nas práticas dos formadores, mobilizados por experiências de trabalho colaborativo em busca de respostas possíveis para problemas situados em espaços indeterminados da prática formativa. Em geral, essas experiências são valorizadas pelos sujeitos na licenciatura em foco como elementos de desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional, tanto porque evidenciam os limites de suas percepções e práticas de ensino/formação usuais, quanto pela necessidade de superação das origens positivistas de sua formação profissional, situadas na perspectiva da docência como atividade técnica. A superação da concepção técnica de formar professores de ciências rumo a mudanças nas práticas dos sujeitos envolve, entre outros aspectos, a forte aproximação entre a escola e a universidade em função da maioria dos formadores das equipes de tutoria também atuarem como professores de ciências/biologia na educação básica, o que torna prioritário o investimento na formação do professor de ciências. Esses aspectos interagem em mútua inclusão em busca de um novo profissionalismo e da construção em processo de uma epistemologia da prática reflexiva como fundamentos das mudanças auto-organizativas na prática dos formadores de professores de ciências.

Agro-ecology as a mediating science between the training of the agronomist and sustainable agriculture

Agro-ecology plays an important role in the implementation of sustainable development, and an agronomist can be a leading agent in the dissemination of that culture. In this perspective, a survey was carried out with the attendants of the course in Agronomy at the Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Mato Grosso, Campus Campo Novo do Parecis, Brazil. The object of the study was to analyze the participation of the academics in agro-ecological activities, seeking to observe the acceptance, perceptions and possible indications of incorporation of these principles in the training. The survey was conducted during the period July-December 2011. The approach was the qualitative method and the instruments used in data collection were participant observation and interviews during the activities. The results revealed the satisfaction of students in engaging in agro-ecological activities: Students developed concepts and incorporated the proposal of agro-ecology throughout the project. The contents of the agronomy course offered at the institution, in the perception of students, is strongly linked to the principles of conventional farming, not fully considering training to meet the challenges, and current and emerging demands of agriculture.

Fear for Manufacturing? China and the Future of Industry in Brazil and Latin America

There has been considerable concern in Latin America over the implications of increased competition from China for local industry. These concerns include the possibility of "deindustrialization," the increased "primarization" of the region's exports and the difficulties of upgrading manufactured exports into higher technology products. This article examines the impact of Chinese competition both in the domestic market and in export markets on Brazilian industry. It documents the increased penetration of Chinese manufactures in the Brazilian market and the way in which Brazilian exports have lost market share to China in the US, European Union and four Latin American countries. Brazil, because of its more developed and locally integrated industrial sector, is not typical of other Latin American countries and the article also discusses the relevance of the Brazilian experience for the region as a whole.

Tradition, Change and Variation : Past and Present Trends in Public Old-age Care

The general aim of this dissertation is to describe and analyse how public old-age care in Sweden has developed and changed during the last century. The study applies a provider perspective on how care has been planned and professionally carried out. A broader social policy perspective, studying old-age care at central/national as well as local/municipal level, is also developed. A special focus is directed at the large local variation in care and services for the elderly. The empirical base is comprised of official documents and other public sources, survey data from interviews with elderly recipients of public old-age care, and official statistics on publicly financed and controlled old-age care and services. Study I addresses the development of old-age care in Sweden during the twentieth century by studying an important occupation in this field – the supervisors and their professional roles, tasks and working conditions. Throughout, the roles of supervisors have followed the prevailing official policy on the proper way to provide care for elderly people in Sweden; from poor relief at the beginning of the 1900s, via a generous level of services in the 1960s and 1970s, to today’s restricted and economy-controlled mode of operation. Study II describes and compares two main forms of public old-age care in Sweden today, home help services and institutional care. The care-load found in home-based care was comparable to and sometimes even larger than in service-homes and other institutions, indicating that large care needs among elderly people in Sweden today can be met in their homes as well as in institutional settings. Studies III and IV analyse the local variation in public old-age care in Sweden. During the last decades there has been an overall decline in home help services. The coverage of home help for elderly people shows large differences between municipalities throughout this period, and the relative variation has increased. The local disparity seems to depend more on historical factors, e.g., previous coverage rates, than on the present municipal situation in levels of need or local economy and politics. In an introductory part the four papers are linked together by an outline of the demographic situation and the social policy model for old-age care in Sweden. Trends that have been apparent over time, e.g. professionalisation and market orientation, are traced and discussed. Conflicts between prevailing ideologies are analysed, in regards to for instance home-based and institution-based care, social and medical culture, and local and central levels of decision-making. ’Welfare municipality’, ‘path dependency’, and ‘decentralisation’ are suggested as a conceptual framework for describing the large and increasing local variations in old-age care. Finally, implications of the four studies with regard to old-age care policy and further research are discussed.

Facets of Gender : Analyses of the Family and the Labour Market

This thesis contains four different studies on the dynamics of gender in households and workplaces. The relationship between family life and work life is in focus, particularly in the paper on labour market outcomes after divorce. In the introductory chapter, the Swedish context is briefly described. The description focuses on gender differences in the labour market and in the home. Theories concerning the division of work in the household are discussed, as are two theories on labour market discrimination, viz. taste discrimination and statistical discrimination. The theory part is concluded with a discussion of social closure processes and gendered organizational structures. The Reproduction of Gender. Housework and Attitudes Towards Gender Equality in the Home Among Swedish Boys and Girls. The housework boys and girls age 10 to 18 do, and their attitudes towards gender equality in the home are studied. One aim is to see whether the work children do is gendered and if so, whether they follow their parents’, often gendered, pattern in housework. A second aim is to see whether parents’ division of work is related to the children’s attitude towards gender equality in the home. The data used are taken from the Swedish Child Level of Living Survey (Child-LNU) 2000. Results indicate that girls and boys in two-parent families are more prone to engage in gender-atypical work the more their parent of the same sex engages in this kind of work. The fact that girls still do more housework than boys indicates that housework is gendered work also among children. No relation between parents’ division of work and the child’s attitude towards gender equality in the home was found. Dependence within Families and the Household Division of Labor – A Comparison between Sweden and the United States. This paper assesses the relative explanatory value of the resource-bargaining perspective and the doing-gender approach in analysing the division of housework in the United States and Sweden from the mid-1970s to 2000. Data from the Swedish Level of Living Survey (LNU) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) were used. Overall results indicate that housework is truly gendered work in both countries during the entire period. Even so, the results also indicate that gender deviance neutralization is more pronounced in the United States than in Sweden. Unlike Swedish women, American women seem to increase their time spent in housework when their husbands are to some extent economically dependent on them, as if to neutralize the presumed gender deviance. Divorce and Labour Market Outcomes. Do Women Suffer or Gain? In this paper, the interconnected nature of work and family is studied by looking at labour market outcomes after divorce. The data used are retrospective work and family histories collected in LNU 1991. A hazard regression model with competing risks reveals that women’s chances of improving their occupational prestige appear to be better after divorce compared to before. Increased working hours and perhaps also increased energy invested in the job may pay off in better occupational opportunities. Worth noting, however, is that the outcome among women with a less firm labour market attachment is more often to a job of lower prestige than one of higher prestige. Hence, the labour market outcome for women after divorce is to some extent conditioned by their labour market attachment at the time of divorce. Men, on the other hand, in most cases seem to suffer occupationally from divorce. For separated men the risk of negative changes in occupational prestige is greater than for cohabiting men. Formal On-the-job Training. A Gender-Typed Experience and Wage- Related Advantage? Formal on-the-job training (FOJT) can have a positive impact on wages and on promotion opportunities. According to theory and earlier research, a two-step model of gender inequality in FOJT is predicted: First, women are less likely than men to take part in FOJT and, second, once women do get the more remunerative training, they are not rewarded for their new skills to the same extent as men are. Pooled cross-sectional data from the Swedish Survey of Living Conditions (ULF) in the mid-nineties were used. Results show that women are significantly less likely than men to take part in FOJT. Among those who do receive training, women are more likely to take part in industry-specific training, whereas men are more likely to participate in general training and training that increases promotion opportunities. The two latter forms of training significantly raise a man’s annual earnings but not a woman’s. Hence, the theoretical model is supported and it is argued that this gender inequality is partly due to employers’ discriminatory practices.

Formazione, apprendimento e nuove prospettive e-learning. Lo sviluppo delle nuove tecnologie didattiche e la creazione di sistemi di apprendimento lungo l’intero arco della vita

The thesis of this paper is based on the assumption that the socio-economic system in which we are living is characterised by three great trends: growing attention to the promotion of human capital; extremely rapid technological progress, based above all on the information and communication technologies (ICT); the establishment of new production and organizational set-ups. These transformation processes pose a concrete challenge to the training sector, which is called to satisfy the demand for new skills that need to be developed and disseminated. Hence the growing interest that the various training sub-systems devote to the issues of lifelong learning and distance learning. In such a context, the so-called e-learning acquires a central role. The first chapter proposes a reference theoretical framework for the transformations that are shaping post-industrial society. It analyzes some key issues such as: how work is changing, the evolution of organizational set-ups and the introduction of learning organization, the advent of the knowledge society and of knowledge companies, the innovation of training processes, and the key role of ICT in the new training and learning systems. The second chapter focuses on the topic of e-learning as an effective training model in response to the need for constant learning that is emerging in the knowledge society. This chapter starts with a reflection on the importance of lifelong learning and introduces the key arguments of this thesis, i.e. distance learning (DL) and the didactic methodology called e-learning. It goes on with an analysis of the various theoretic and technical aspects of e-learning. In particular, it delves into the theme of e-learning as an integrated and constant training environment, characterized by customized programmes and collaborative learning, didactic assistance and constant monitoring of the results. Thus, all the aspects of e-learning are taken into exam: the actors and the new professionals, the virtual communities as learning subjects, the organization of contents in learning objects, the conformity to international standards, the integrated platforms and so on. The third chapter, which concludes the theoretic-interpretative part, starts with a short presentation of the state-of-the-art e-learning international market that aims to understand its peculiarities and its current trends. Finally, we focus on some important regulation aspects related to the strong impulse given by the European Commission first, and by the Italian governments secondly, to the development and diffusion of e-learning. The second part of the thesis (chapters 4, 5 and 6) focus on field research, which aims to define the Italian scenario for e-learning. In particular, we have examined some key topics such as: the challenges of training and the instruments to face such challenges; the new didactic methods and technologies for lifelong learning; the level of diffusion of e-learning in Italy; the relation between classroom training and online training; the main factors of success as well as the most critical aspects of the introduction of e-learning in the various learning environments. As far as the methodological aspects are concerned, we have favoured a qualitative and quantitative analysis. A background analysis has been done to collect the statistical data available on this topic, as well as the research previously carried out in this area. The main source of data is constituted by the results of the Observatory on e-learning of Aitech-Assinform, which covers the 2000s and four areas of implementation (firms, public administration, universities, school): the thesis has reviewed the results of the last three available surveys, offering a comparative interpretation of them. We have then carried out an in-depth empirical examination of two case studies, which have been selected by virtue of the excellence they have achieved and can therefore be considered advanced and emblematic experiences (a large firm and a Graduate School).