994 resultados para crop yield forecast


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The relationship between food security and sustainable land use is considered to be of the uttermost importance to increase yields without having to increase the agricultural land area over which crops are grown. In the present study nitrogen concentration (25 and 85 kg ha-1) and planting density (6.7, 10 and 25 plants m-2) were investigated for their effect on whole plant physiology and pod seed yield in kale (Brassica oleracea), to determine if the fruit (pod) yield could be manipulated agronomically. Nitrogen concentration did not significantly affect seed yield and it is therefore recommended that the lower concentration be used commercially. Conversely planting density did have a significant effect with increases in seed yield observed at the highest planting density of 25 plants m-2, therefore this high planting density would be recommended commercially to maximise area efficiency, highlighting that simple agronomic changes are capable of increasing crop yields over a set area.

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Break crops and multi-crop rotations are common in arable farm management, and the soil quality inherited from a previous crop is one of the parameters that determine the gross margin that is achieved with a given crop from a given parcel of land. In previous work we developed a dynamic economic model to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios, and we reported use of the model to calculate coexistence costs for GM maize grown in a crop rotation. The model predicts economic effects of pest and weed pressures in monthly time steps. Validation of the model in respect of specific traits is proceeding as data from trials with novel crop varieties is published. Alongside this aspect of the validation process, we are able to incorporate data representing the economic impact of abiotic stresses on conventional crops, and then use the model to predict the cumulative gross margin achievable from a sequence of conventional crops grown at varying levels of abiotic stress. We report new progress with this aspect of model validation. In this paper, we report the further development of the model to take account of abiotic stress arising from drought, flood, heat or frost; such stresses being introduced in addition to variable pest and weed pressure. The main purpose is to assess the economic incentive for arable farmers to adopt novel crop varieties having multiple ‘stacked’ traits introduced by means of various biotechnological tools available to crop breeders.

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Global food security, particularly crop fertilization and yield production, is threatened by heat waves that are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Effects of heat stress on the fertilization of insect-pollinated plants are not well understood, but experiments conducted primarily in self-pollinated crops, such as wheat, show that transfer of fertile pollen may recover yield following stress. We hypothesized that in the partially pollinator-dependent crop, faba bean (Vicia faba L.), insect pollination would elicit similar yield recovery following heat stress. We exposed potted faba bean plants to heat stress for 5 days during floral development and anthesis. Temperature treatments were representative of heat waves projected in the UK for the period 2021-2050 and onwards. Following temperature treatments, plants were distributed in flight cages and either pollinated by domesticated Bombus terrestris colonies or received no insect pollination. Yield loss due to heat stress at 30°C was greater in plants excluded from pollinators (15%) compared to those with bumblebee pollination (2.5%). Thus, the pollinator dependency of faba bean yield was 16% at control temperatures (18 to 26°C) and extreme stress (34°C), but was 53% following intermediate heat stress at 30°C. These findings provide the first evidence that the pollinator dependency of crops can be modified by heat stress, and suggest that insect pollination may become more important in crop production as the probability of heat waves increases.

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Organic fertilizers based on seaweed extract potentially have beneficial effects on many crop plants. Herewe investigate the impact of organic fertilizer on Rosmarinus officinalis measured by both yield and oilquality. Plants grown in a temperature-controlled greenhouse with a natural photoperiod and a controlledirrigation system were treated with seaweed fertilizer and an inorganic fertilizer of matching mineralcomposition but with no organic content. Treatments were either by spraying on to the foliage or wateringdirect to the compost. The essential oil was extracted by hydro-distillation with a Clevenger apparatusand analysed by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry (GC–MS) and NMR. The chemical composi-tions of the plants were compared, and qualitative differences were found between fertilizer treatmentsand application methods. Thus sprayed seaweed fertilizer showed a significantly higher percentage of�-pinene, �-phellandrene, �-terpinene (monoterpenes) and 3-methylenecycloheptene than other treat-ments. Italicene, �-bisabolol (sesquiterpenes), �-thujene, and E-isocitral (monoterpenes) occurred insignificantly higher percentages for plants watered with the seaweed extract. Each was significantly dif-ferent to the inorganic fertilizer and to controls. The seaweed treatments caused a significant increasein oil amount and leaf area as compared with both inorganic treatments and the control regardless ofapplication method.

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Background and Aims Root traits can be selected for crop improvement. Techniques such as soil excavations can be used to screen root traits in the field, but are limited to genotypes that are well-adapted to field conditions. The aim of this study was to compare a low-cost, high-throughput root phenotyping (HTP) technique in a controlled environment with field performance, using oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus) varieties. Methods Primary root length (PRL), lateral root length and lateral root density (LRD) were measured on 14-d-old seedlings of elite OSR varieties (n = 32) using a ‘pouch and wick’ HTP system (∼40 replicates). Six field experiments were conducted using the same varieties at two UK sites each year for 3 years. Plants were excavated at the 6- to 8-leaf stage for general vigour assessments of roots and shoots in all six experiments, and final seed yield was determined. Leaves were sampled for mineral composition from one of the field experiments. Key Results Seedling PRL in the HTP system correlated with seed yield in four out of six (r = 0·50, 0·50, 0·33, 0·49; P < 0·05) and with emergence in three out of five (r = 0·59, 0·22, 0·49; P < 0·05) field experiments. Seedling LRD correlated positively with leaf concentrations of some minerals, e.g. calcium (r = 0·46; P < 0·01) and zinc (r = 0·58; P < 0·001), but did not correlate with emergence, general early vigour or yield in the field. Conclusions Associations between PRL and field performance are generally related to early vigour. These root traits might therefore be of limited additional selection value, given that vigour can be measured easily on shoots/canopies. In contrast, LRD cannot be assessed easily in the field and, if LRD can improve nutrient uptake, then it may be possible to use HTP systems to screen this trait in both elite and more genetically diverse, non-field-adapted OSR.

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With the aim of determining the genetic basis of metabolic regulation in tomato fruit, we constructed a detailed physical map of genomic regions spanning previously described metabolic quantitative trait loci of a Solanum pennellii introgression line population. Two genomic libraries from S. pennellii were screened with 104 colocated markers from five selected genomic regions, and a total of 614 bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC)/cosmids were identified as seed clones. Integration of sequence data with the genetic and physical maps of Solanum lycopersicum facilitated the anchoring of 374 of these BAC/cosmid clones. The analysis of this information resulted in a genome-wide map of a nondomesticated plant species and covers 10% of the physical distance of the selected regions corresponding to approximately 1% of the wild tomato genome. Comparative analyses revealed that S. pennellii and domesticated tomato genomes can be considered as largely colinear. A total of 1,238,705 bp from both BAC/cosmid ends and nine large insert clones were sequenced, annotated, and functionally categorized. The sequence data allowed the evaluation of the level of polymorphism between the wild and cultivated tomato species. An exhaustive microsynteny analysis allowed us to estimate the divergence date of S. pennellii and S. lycopersicum at 2.7 million years ago. The combined results serve as a reference for comparative studies both at the macrosyntenic and microsyntenic levels. They also provide a valuable tool for fine-mapping of quantitative trait loci in tomato. Furthermore, they will contribute to a deeper understanding of the regulatory factors underpinning metabolism and hence defining crop chemical composition.

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The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The selectivity of the herbicide flazasulfaron was evaluated when applied at two rates (50 and 100 g/ha) with and without surfactants (Aterbane or Agral at 0.2% v/v). The treatment was applied at early (three leaves) and late (five to six leaves) stages of the postemergence of sugarcane plants (var. RB845257) grown in two soils (sandy and clay) with good moisture status before and after application. Despite the toxicity symptoms, especially at the late stage with the higher rate of application in the sandy soil, the herbicide did not affect the growth nor the stalk yield. The presence of the surfactants had no effect on the toxicity symptoms.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Silicon has beneficial effects on many crops, mainly under biotic and abiotic stresses. Silicon can affect biochemical, physiological, and photosynthetic processes and, consequently, alleviates drought stress. However, the effects of Si on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants under drought stress are still unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of Si supply on some biochemical characteristics and yield of potato tubers, either exposed or not exposed to drought stress. The experiment was conducted in pots containing 50 dm(3) of a Typic Acrortox soil (33% clay, 4% silt, and 63% sand). The treatments consisted of the absence or presence of Si application (0 and 284.4 mg dm(-3)), through soil amelioration with dolomitic lime and Ca and Mg silicate, and in the absence or presence of water deficit (-0.020 MPa and -0.050 MPa soil water potential, respectively), with eight replications. Silicon application and water deficit resulted in the greatest Si concentration in potato leaves. Proline concentrations increased under lower water availability and higher Si availability in the soil, which indicates that Si may be associated with plant osmotic adjustment. Water deficit and Si application decreased total sugars and soluble proteins concentrations in the leaves. Silicon application reduced stalk lodging and increased mean tuber weight and, consequently, tuber yield, especially in the absence of water stress.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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O manejo das plantas de cobertura visa obter maiores benefícios com a sua introdução nos sistemas agrícolas. O uso de espécies forrageiras como as do gênero Brachiaria, devido à grande quantidade de biomassa e ao fato de persistirem por mais tempo sobre o solo, vem se tornando uma boa opção. Quando se almeja maior rendimento operacional no plantio, maior disponibilidade de nutrientes, maior presença de palha na superfície do solo e menor liberação de possíveis substâncias alelopáticas, um ponto importante a ser observado é o intervalo de tempo entre a dessecação da cobertura com glifosato e a semeadura do arroz. O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar o efeito do manejo de B. ruziziensis, com ou sem herbicida, antecedendo a semeadura da cultura, nos componentes de produção e na produtividade do arroz. O ensaio foi conduzido em casa de vegetação e consistiu em três tipos de manejo de B. ruziziensis antes da semeadura do arroz. Essa forrageira apresentou crescimento linear, e a presença de grande quantidade de sua matéria seca na superfície do solo foi prejudicial ao arroz. Quando manejada próximo do plantio do arroz, B. ruziziensis causou redução significativa na produtividade dessa cultura; o manejo dessa forrageira com herbicida deve ser realizado com mais de 20 dias antes do plantio do arroz; o manejo dela com retirada da parte aérea, com ou sem herbicida, deve ser realizado com 10 ou mais dias antes do plantio do arroz; e o manejo no momento adequado proporcionou aumento significativo na produtividade do arroz.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Brazil has extensive area with acid soils. Using phosphogypsum and soil acidity tolerant cultivars are alternatives to crop establishment in no-till system without previous limestone incorporation in many agricultural soils of Brazil. However, it remains unknown how phosphogypsum and limestone surface application affects rice (Oryza sativa L.) and common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) nutrition and yield under a no-till system. A field experiment was conducted in a sandy clay loam, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Haplorthox, previously cultivated under conventional tillage, in Botucatu, Sao, Paulo State, Brazil. Treatments included four dolomitic limestone rates (0, 1100, 2700, and 4300 kg ha(-1)), two phosphogypsum rates (0 and 2100 kg ha(-1)), and two upland rice cultivars (Caiapo and IAC 202). in 2002-2003, and two bean cultivars (Perola and Carioca), in 2003-2004. Both amendments were applied on the surface, without soil incorporation. The content of Ca, Mg, and Mn in flag leaves and rice yield increased with limestone surface application. Liming increased the shoot dry matter of IAC 202 rice. Phosphogypsum increased S contents in leaves of both rice cultivars, and resulted in higher grain yield in the Caiapo rice. Liming increased K contents in leaves of both bean cultivars. In the absence of phosphogypsum, liming increased S contents and grain yield of bean. Content of Mg in leaves was reduced by phosphogypsum in lower limestone rates. In phosphogypsum presence, liming reduced Zn contents in leaves and increased bean shoot dry matter. Phosphogypsum increased Ca and S, and reduced Mg contents in bean leaves. Using soil acidity tolerant cultivars promoted higher crop yields in no-till systems establishment, even when the effective soil amelioration had not yet been achieved.