Essays on credit rating agencies and the assessment of sovereign risk

Sovereign ratings have only recently regained attention in the academic debate. This seems to be somewhat surprising against the background that their influence is well-known and that rating decisions have often been criticized in the past (as for example during the Asian crisis in the 90s). Sovereign ratings do not only assess the creditworthiness of governments: They are also included in the calculation of ratings for sub-sovereign issuers whereby their rating is usually restricted to the upper bound of the sovereign rating (sovereign ceiling). Earlier studies have also shown that the downgrade of a sovereign often leads to contagion effects on neighbor countries. This study focuses first on misleading incentives in the rating industry before chapter three summarizes the literature on the influence and determinants of sovereign ratings. The fourth chapter explores empirically how ratings respond to changes in sovereign debt across specific country groups. The fifth part focuses on single rating decisions of four selected rating agencies and investigates whether the timing of decisions gives reason for herding behavior. The final chapter presents a reform proposal for the future regulation of the rating industry in light of the aforementioned flaws.rn

Spatio-temporal credit assignment in population learning

Learning by reinforcement is important in shaping animal behavior, and in particular in behavioral decision making. Such decision making is likely to involve the integration of many synaptic events in space and time. However, using a single reinforcement signal to modulate synaptic plasticity, as suggested in classical reinforcement learning algorithms, a twofold problem arises. Different synapses will have contributed differently to the behavioral decision, and even for one and the same synapse, releases at different times may have had different effects. Here we present a plasticity rule which solves this spatio-temporal credit assignment problem in a population of spiking neurons. The learning rule is spike-time dependent and maximizes the expected reward by following its stochastic gradient. Synaptic plasticity is modulated not only by the reward, but also by a population feedback signal. While this additional signal solves the spatial component of the problem, the temporal one is solved by means of synaptic eligibility traces. In contrast to temporal difference (TD) based approaches to reinforcement learning, our rule is explicit with regard to the assumed biophysical mechanisms. Neurotransmitter concentrations determine plasticity and learning occurs fully online. Further, it works even if the task to be learned is non-Markovian, i.e. when reinforcement is not determined by the current state of the system but may also depend on past events. The performance of the model is assessed by studying three non-Markovian tasks. In the first task, the reward is delayed beyond the last action with non-related stimuli and actions appearing in between. The second task involves an action sequence which is itself extended in time and reward is only delivered at the last action, as it is the case in any type of board-game. The third task is the inspection game that has been studied in neuroeconomics, where an inspector tries to prevent a worker from shirking. Applying our algorithm to this game yields a learning behavior which is consistent with behavioral data from humans and monkeys, revealing themselves properties of a mixed Nash equilibrium. The examples show that our neuronal implementation of reward based learning copes with delayed and stochastic reward delivery, and also with the learning of mixed strategies in two-opponent games.

Spatio-temporal credit assignment in population learning

Learning by reinforcement is important in shaping animal behavior. But behavioral decision making is likely to involve the integration of many synaptic events in space and time. So in using a single reinforcement signal to modulate synaptic plasticity a twofold problem arises. Different synapses will have contributed differently to the behavioral decision and, even for one and the same synapse, releases at different times may have had different effects. Here we present a plasticity rule which solves this spatio-temporal credit assignment problem in a population of spiking neurons. The learning rule is spike time dependent and maximizes the expected reward by following its stochastic gradient. Synaptic plasticity is modulated not only by the reward but by a population feedback signal as well. While this additional signal solves the spatial component of the problem, the temporal one is solved by means of synaptic eligibility traces. In contrast to temporal difference based approaches to reinforcement learning, our rule is explicit with regard to the assumed biophysical mechanisms. Neurotransmitter concentrations determine plasticity and learning occurs fully online. Further, it works even if the task to be learned is non-Markovian, i.e. when reinforcement is not determined by the current state of the system but may also depend on past events. The performance of the model is assessed by studying three non-Markovian tasks. In the first task the reward is delayed beyond the last action with non-related stimuli and actions appearing in between. The second one involves an action sequence which is itself extended in time and reward is only delivered at the last action, as is the case in any type of board-game. The third is the inspection game that has been studied in neuroeconomics. It only has a mixed Nash equilibrium and exemplifies that the model also copes with stochastic reward delivery and the learning of mixed strategies.

Spatio-temporal credit assignment in population learning

We present a model for plasticity induction in reinforcement learning which is based on a cascade of synaptic memory traces. In the cascade of these so called eligibility traces presynaptic input is first corre lated with postsynaptic events, next with the behavioral decisions and finally with the external reinforcement. A population of leaky integrate and fire neurons endowed with this plasticity scheme is studied by simulation on different tasks. For operant co nditioning with delayed reinforcement, learning succeeds even when the delay is so large that the delivered reward reflects the appropriateness, not of the immediately preceeding response, but of a decision made earlier on in the stimulus - decision sequence . So the proposed model does not rely on the temporal contiguity between decision and pertinent reward and thus provides a viable means of addressing the temporal credit assignment problem. In the same task, learning speeds up with increasing population si ze, showing that the plasticity cascade simultaneously addresses the spatial problem of assigning credit to the different population neurons. Simulations on other task such as sequential decision making serve to highlight the robustness of the proposed sch eme and, further, contrast its performance to that of temporal difference based approaches to reinforcement learning.

Spatio-Temporal Credit Assignment in Neuronal Population Learning

n learning from trial and error, animals need to relate behavioral decisions to environmental reinforcement even though it may be difficult to assign credit to a particular decision when outcomes are uncertain or subject to delays. When considering the biophysical basis of learning, the credit-assignment problem is compounded because the behavioral decisions themselves result from the spatio-temporal aggregation of many synaptic releases. We present a model of plasticity induction for reinforcement learning in a population of leaky integrate and fire neurons which is based on a cascade of synaptic memory traces. Each synaptic cascade correlates presynaptic input first with postsynaptic events, next with the behavioral decisions and finally with external reinforcement. For operant conditioning, learning succeeds even when reinforcement is delivered with a delay so large that temporal contiguity between decision and pertinent reward is lost due to intervening decisions which are themselves subject to delayed reinforcement. This shows that the model provides a viable mechanism for temporal credit assignment. Further, learning speeds up with increasing population size, so the plasticity cascade simultaneously addresses the spatial problem of assigning credit to synapses in different population neurons. Simulations on other tasks, such as sequential decision making, serve to contrast the performance of the proposed scheme to that of temporal difference-based learning. We argue that, due to their comparative robustness, synaptic plasticity cascades are attractive basic models of reinforcement learning in the brain.

“All Data is Credit Data,” or, On Close Reading as a Reciprocal Process in Digital Knowledge Environments

The new knowledge environments of the digital age are oen described as places where we are all closely read, with our buying habits, location, and identities available to advertisers, online merchants, the government, and others through our use of the Internet. This is represented as a loss of privacy in which these entities learn about our activities and desires, using means that were unavailable in the pre-digital era. This article argues that the reciprocal nature of digital networks means 1) that the privacy issues that we face online are not radically different from those of the pre-Internet era, and 2) that we need to reconceive of close reading as an activity of which both humans and computer algorithms are capable.

Evaluation of the colorimetric VITEK 2 card for identification of gram-negative nonfermentative rods: comparison to 16S rRNA gene sequencing

Ninety strains of a collection of well-identified clinical isolates of gram-negative nonfermentative rods collected over a period of 5 years were evaluated using the new colorimetric VITEK 2 card. The VITEK 2 colorimetric system identified 53 (59%) of the isolates to the species level and 9 (10%) to the genus level; 28 (31%) isolates were misidentified. An algorithm combining the colorimetric VITEK 2 card and 16S rRNA gene sequencing for adequate identification of gram-negative nonfermentative rods was developed. According to this algorithm, any identification by the colorimetric VITEK 2 card other than Achromobacter xylosoxidans, Acinetobacter sp., Burkholderia cepacia complex, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia should be subjected to 16S rRNA gene sequencing when accurate identification of nonfermentative rods is of concern.