Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Rent-sharing no setor industrial brasileiro: uma análise empírica para o período de 2002 – 2012

Este trabalho visa analisar a existência de rent-sharing no setor industrial brasileiro entre os anos de 2002 e 2012. Este tema já foi amplamente abordado pela literatura internacional, onde é possível identificar evidências que corroboram a existência de rent-sharing nas economias desenvolvidas. Porém, para a economia brasileira este tema ainda foi pouco explorado e não temos conhecimento de estudos empíricos realizados para os anos mais recentes. A fim de examinar empiricamente a relação entre os lucros das firmas e a remuneração de seus trabalhadores, foram estimados dois modelos. Primeiramente, um modelo em cross section, que tem como unidade de observação o trabalhador, utilizando uma base de dados estruturada através do cruzamento da RAIS e da PIA. Também foi analisado se esta correlação ocorre de forma homogênea entre os níveis de qualificação dos trabalhadores. Em seguida, foi realizada a estimativa em painel dinâmico, cujo nível de agregação é o setor industrial, prevendo também a correção para o clássico problema de endogeneidade entre os lucros das firmas e os salários dos trabalhadores por meio de variáveis instrumentais. Os resultados indicam que um aumento no nível de rentabilidade das firmas gera, no longo prazo, uma elevação dos salários pagos naquele setor, porém este efeito é de baixa magnitude.

Higher salaries, more teaching, better performance? The effects of the introduction of the minimum salary for teachers in Brazil

De acordo com a literatura empírica, há fortes evidências de que, após o controle de características socioeconômicas dos alunos, a qualidade dos professores é o fator mais importante para explicar o desempenho do aluno em testes padronizados. No entanto, não há consenso sobre como sistemas públicos de ensino podem melhorar a qualidade dos professores. Será que o pagamento de salários mais elevados a professores da rede pública impactam a qualidade dos professores nas escolas públicas? O Governo Federal brasileiro introduziu, em 2009, piso salarial nacional para os professores de escolas públicas, provocando um perceptível aumento exógeno dos salários dos professores municipais. O principal objetivo desta tese é avaliar os impactos de curto prazo da elevação linear e incondicional do salário do professor na qualidade da educação. Devido à ausência de dados secundários sobre o valor do salário-base de professores entre 2008 e 2013, tivemos que realizar um levantamento com as Secretarias Municipais de Educação para reunir informação sobre a estrutura da carreira docente e sobre os salários-bases nesse período. Com base em nossa pesquisa de campo, o primeiro capítulo investiga a conformidade dos sistemas municipais de ensino ao piso salarial nacional para professores de redes públicas. Encontramos que fatores não observáveis/observados são determinantes para explicar a variabilidade salarial verificada entre os municípios e o cumprimento da lei, o que embasa nossa estratégia de identificação com base em métodos de diferença em diferenças, combinados com pareamento com base em escore de propensão. O segundo capítulo centra-se na estimativa do impacto da elevação dos salários dos professores sobre a proficiência dos alunos de 5º ano do ensino fundamental municipal. De acordo com estes resultados, o aumento salarial incondicional não gerou uma expansão da proficiência escolar dos alunos, pelo menos no curto prazo. Embora não tenham sido detectados impactos na aprendizagem dos alunos, alguns mecanismos de transmissão do aumento salarial para melhores resultados educacionais podem já ter sido ativados. Assim, o principal objetivo do terceiro capítulo é avaliar o impacto dos aumentos de salário sobre a qualidade dos professores atuais e dos potenciais futuros professores. Avaliamos o impacto de aumentos de salário sobre o desempenho dos professores no ENADE, uma proxy de sua qualidade, e sobre a atratividade dos cursos de ensino superior associados à carreira docente. Essa atratividade é medida por meio da qualidade dos que entram nos respectivos cursos superiores, de acordo com seu desempenho no Enem. Neste último capítulo, aplicamos modelo de Tripla-Diferenças visando controlar dois tipos de potenciais fatores de confusão: (i) mudanças no desempenho dos professores (potenciais futuros professores) entre grupos de municípios, que foram submetidos ao tratamento e os que não foram tratados, que nada têm a ver com a política; e (ii) as alterações no desempenho de todos os professores (alunos) que vivem no município em que houve a elevação salarial devido à introdução da lei. As estimativas obtidas indicam que a elevação salarial gerou efeitos leves sobre a qualidade dos professores e sobre a atratividade dos cursos relacionados à carreira docente.

Impactos econômicos da nova realidade da exploração do pré-sal. Existe uma ameaça ao etanol?

A partir de meados dos anos 2000, a produção brasileira de etanol voltou a prosperar. Enquanto isso, em 2007 foi anunciada a descoberta de grandes reservas de petróleo na camada pré-sal no litoral brasileiro. Com isso, a perspectiva promissora para a indústria brasileira de etanol começou a dar lugar ao desenvolvimento de petróleo do pré-sal com um ambicioso programa de investimentos. Além disso, entre 2011 e 2014 o Governo adotou uma nova política de preços domésticos da gasolina e diesel, com o objetivo de reduzir as pressões inflacionárias, mas reduzindo gradualmente a competitividade do etanol, além de comprometer a situação financeira da Petrobras, dificultando investimentos no pré-sal. Considerando tais desafios e a importância dos setores de petróleo e etanol para a economia brasileira, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos econômicos de longo prazo da exploração do pré-sal, com especial atenção para as consequências sobre o setor de etanol. É realizada uma avaliação dos impactos da política de controle do preço da gasolina do período 2011-2014 sobre o setor de etanol. Um modelo adaptado de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo é empregado no qual o setor do petróleo do pré-sal é adicionado como uma tecnologia backstop. Os resultados sugerem que o estímulo precoce da produção do pré-sal para alcançar a produção de petróleo esperada pelo Governo traz mais custos do que benefícios para a economia brasileira. Constatou-se que sem interferência do governo, a produção de petróleo do pré-sal torna-se competitiva somente após 2025-2035. Com relação ao impacto sobre a indústria do etanol, verificou-se que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal não enfraquece a produção brasileira de etanol. No entanto, a política de controle de preço da gasolina teve um impacto negativo sobre o setor de etanol.

Neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate or assuming a foreign constraint and asking for foreign savings

The objectives of these notes are two. The first objective is to analyze whether the strategy of growth with absorption of foreign savings leads to a trajectory of the economy that is sustainable in the long run. The second one is to evaluate the possibility of success of a policy of administered devaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

A structuralist Philips curve

This paper presents a structuralist model of the Philips curve and applies it to the US and Brazilian economies. The theoretical model starts from a simple markup rule to build a Philips curve based on the assumptions that firms have a desired rate of profit and wokers have a target real wage. Inflation expectations are modeled in terms of current inflation and the governments’ target, and the model shows that relative prices can have both a short-run and long-run influence on inflation. When applied to the US, the structuralist Philips curve results in a nonlinear model in which there are two steady states for inflation, and where the wageshare of income becomes the main instrument to drive inflation to the governments’ target. When applied to Brazil, the structuralist Philips curve reveals a nonlinear relationship between long-run inflation and the real exchange rate, so that the same inflation target can be consistent with more than one value of the exchange rate. The main conclusion of the paper is that a structuralist specification of the Philips curve is a useful instrument to model many macroeconomic topics as well as alternative theoretical closures.

The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

The spenders-hoarders theory of capital accumulations, wealth distribution and fiscal policy

This paper proposes a simple OLG model which is consistent with the essential facts about consumer behavior, capital accumulation and wealth distribution, and yields some new and surprising conclusions about fiscal policy. By considering a society in which individuais are distinguished according to two characteristics, altruism and wealth preference, we show that those who in the long run hold the bulk of private capital are not so rnuch motivated by dynastic altruism as by preference for wealth. Two types of social segmentation can result with different wcalth distribution. To a large extcnt our results seem to fit reality better than those obtained with standard optimal growth models in which dynastic altruism ( or r ate o f impatience) is the only source of heterogeneity: overaccumulation can appear, public debt and unfunded pensions are not neutra!, estate taxation can improve the welfare of the top wealthy.

A bidimensional model of matching in the marriage market with women labor decision

We construct a frictionless matching model of the marriage market where women have bidimensional attributes, one continuous (income) and the other dichotomous (home ability). Equilibrium in the marriage market determines intrahousehold allocation of resources and female labor participation. Our model is able to predict partial non-assortative matching, with rich men marrying women with low income but high home ability. We then perform numerical exercises to evaluate the impacts of income taxes in individual welfare and find that there is considerable divergence in the female labor participation response to taxes between the short run and the long run.

Avaliação da presença de osteopatia decorremte do diabetes tipo 1 em criança e adolecentes do Rio Grande do Norte

Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and osteoposes are chronic diseases with great socioeconomic consequences, mainly due to the late complications and consequent disabilities. The potential effects of DM on bone metabolism remain a very conroversial issue, and disagreement exists with regard to the clinical implications of diabetic osteopenia and the mechanism of its ocurrence. The issue is further complicated by the contribuicion of the especific factors, such as duration of disease an dthe degree of metabolic control. The objective of this study is to identify the osteopathy in children and adolescents with DM 1 assisted in the hospital of pediatrics, UFRN, through biochemical markers of bone and mineral metabolism and the extent of bone mineral density. The study was composed by 74 diabetics type 1 patients (DM1) of both gender and aged 6 to 20 yars. Normoglicêmic group was composed by 97 healthy subjects of both genders, which showed the same age range of DM1, in addition to same socioeconomic class. These individuals qere students from the networks of public education in the city of Natal-RN, randomly invited to paticipate in our study. Both groups DM1 and NG were divided intofour subgroups, according to the classification of tanner , T1, T2, T3, T4 for achieving a benchmark. Diabetic individuals showed up with a poor glycemic control. the group DN1 T4 showed an incresead value for total protein, albumin, urea and microalbumiuria are predictors of grumelura injury in DM1 patients . The total alkaline phosphatase activitywas kept on high levels for both groups because they are in a stature development age. For osteocalcin there were decreased levels for groups Dm1 T1, T2, and T3 when compared to their NG (s), suggesting that this decrease could be associated with reduction in the number and/or differentiation os osteoblasts thereby contributing to reducing bone formation. There were no changes in the activity of TRAP. The serum concentrations of total and ionized calcium, phosphorus and magnesium were included within the RV. It was observed that the BMD (Z- SCORE ) has always been within the RV for both groups, despite to DM1 T4. Taking all together, our results support the hypothesis that children and adolescents with type 1 DM present the risk in the long run to suffer a reduction in the bone mass, associated to poor glicemic control and disease duration. It could limit the bone growth and increase the probality of development of osteopenia, as well as other complications surch as retinopathy and renal failure

Finanças públicas na nova ordem constitucional brasileira: uma análise comportamental dos municípios potiguares, nos anos antecedentes e posteriores à lei de responsabilidade fiscal LRF

The object of the present dissertation is to analyze the behavior of the public finances of the districts of the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), taking as reference a period fundamentally previous to the implementation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law LRF, comparatively to the first years, immediately after the advent of the mentioned institutional milestone. The central hypothesis of this study proposes that, from the institutions' viewpoint, the LRF sets securely consistent rules, in the orchestration of the behavior of the municipal revenues and expenses. These regulations, on the other hand, might be effective and reach the districts of the RN indiscriminately, apart from stabilizing tendencies and which are sustainable in the long run. In spite of this, the indicators calculated reveal that the districts researched show, during all the period under analysis, a diminished capacity of self-tax collection , and consequently, a high participation of the intergovernmental transfers in the composition of the current revenues. This behavior indicates that the goal of strengthening the municipal public finances, forecast in the LRF, tends to be only partially accomplished, due to the fiscal decentralism. The analysis and interpretation of the data are conducted from the literature of institutionalist orientation and in descriptive statistical tools applied to the municipal strata of the state of Rio Grande do Norte. Further on, it's used the econometrical method Pooled OLS, which demands the elimination of the municipal strata in order to allow the use of the model, in the attempt to strengthen and/or ratify the results of the research. Finally, the evidence reached in the dissertation show that the LRF brings better conditions to the potiguar municipal public finances, predominantly to the economically stronger districts; whereas the less dynamic municipal entities show rather divergent evidence, that is, their economies seem to be more oriented to a more pronounced state participation; therefore, it generates in the state of RN a certain antithesis in the results reached in the dissertation

Fazer a ponte para a escola de todos(as)

The purpose of this study is to understand what are the matrix elements in which everyday activities of social author/authors, actor/actors and actress/actresses are embedded, in order to carry out the Escola da Ponte s political and pedagogic process (PPP). Thus, the object of this study is to reflect on an experience developed in a public school supported by the Portuguese State within the scenario of institutions that are committed to building up a school of the people by investing in democratization and community participation in their management process. The methodological course of action was targeted at the presuppositions of qualitative research (WOODS, 1999; BURGESS, 1997; MILLS, 1982; OLIVEIRA, 1998; BOGDAN and BIKLEN, 1994; MACEDO, 2000; CASAL, 1996; GEERTZ, 2000), with data collected from random word association (MACHADO and CARVALHO, 2003), the discourse of the interviewed (KAUFMANN, 1996; SILVA, 2006; 2002), observation notes and documents (ELIAS, 1997). Based on a multiple reference and theoretical framework, the investigation revealed elements that are construed as the raw material and pillars supporting the bridge of a school of the people, as well as the self-organization of the school community which emerges as a dimension that binds together all the elements and brings new arrangements into the school dynamics by moving from the individual to the society (DUPUY, 1990). Along this line, the central argument is that in the short and long run the public school quality does not spring from macro educational policies, nor from ephemeral mass-production programs, projects or governmental policies, but from the intent of the professionals working there in becoming authors and characters in the process of building up and carrying out the PPP. The Project has been conceived in the light of the needs and intentionality of the community whose support comes from the participation and social control held by the students families and the community s power to force to action public administration central agencies aiming at having the State fulfill its responsibilities

Produtividade e qualidade dos grãos de feijão em função da aplicação de nitrogênio em cobertura e via foliar

A adequada disponibilidade de N durante do ciclo do feijoeiro é fundamental para garantir elevada produtividade e qualidade dos grãos produzidos. Esse nutriente pode ser absorvido pelas raízes e folhas da planta. Contudo, ainda existem dúvidas sobre a eficiência da aplicação via foliar de N no feijoeiro e sobre a influência dessa prática na qualidade dos grãos. Objetivou-se neste trabalho avaliar o efeito da adubação nitrogenada em cobertura e via foliar sobre a produtividade e qualidade dos grãos da cultura do feijão. O experimento foi conduzido durante a safra da seca, em um Latossolo Vermelho distroférrico, no município de Botucatu-SP. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos ao acaso com quatro repetições, num esquema fatorial 3 x 4, constituído por três doses de N (0, 45 e 90 kg ha-1) em cobertura e quatro épocas de aplicação de N via foliar (1 - sem aplicação de N via foliar, 2 - pulverização estádio R5 (pré-floração), 3 - pulverização no estádio R7 (início da formação das vagens) e 4 - pulverizações nos estádios R5 e R7). em cada aplicação de N via foliar foram utilizados 200 L ha-1 de uma solução com 10 % de ureia. Quando foi realizada a adubação nitrogenada de cobertura, a aplicação de N via foliar, independentemente da época, não alterou os componentes da produção, a produtividade e a qualidade dos grãos do feijoeiro. Na ausência da adubação nitrogenada de cobertura, a aplicação de N via foliar na fase reprodutiva aumentou a massa e o tamanho dos grãos, a produtividade de grãos e o teor de proteínas nos grãos do feijoeiro. A aplicação de N via foliar no estádio R5 foi mais eficiente em aumentar a produtividade de grãos do feijoeiro que a aplicação em R7.

Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.