933 resultados para causal chain analysis
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In industrial polymer and synthetic rubber production facilities, workers are exposed to 1,3-butadiene. This compound is converted in vivo to 1,2,3,4-diepoxybutane (DEB) and has been linked to increased incidences of cancer in these individuals. Carcinogenesis has been attributed to formation of DEB induced DNA interstrand cross-links. Previous studies have demonstrated that DEB cross-links deoxyguanosine residues within 5'-GNC sequences in synthetic DNA, in restriction fragments, and in defined sequence nucleosomes. The current study utilized the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to examine DEB damage frequencies within nuclear genes, found within "open" regions of chromatin, as compared to regions of unexpressed sequence that reside in tightly packed, "closed" chromatin, to more closely model DEB reactivity in vivo. These initial studies have been performed in chicken liver homogenates. Preliminarily, we have found a dose-dependent DEB lesion-forming response within "open" chromatin. DEB appears to have little-to-no effect upon regions of "closed" chromatin.
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Secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development. However, the evaluation of the causal effects of land titling is a difficult task. The Brazilian government through a program called "Papel Passado" has issued titles, since 2004, to over 85,000 families and has the goal to reach 750,000. Furthermore, another topic in Public Policy that is crucial to developing economies is income generation and child labor force participation. Particularly, in Brazil, about 5.4 million children and teenagers between 5 and 17 years old are still working. This thesis examines the direct impact of securing a property title on income and child labor force participation. In order to isolate the causal role of ownership security, this study uses a comparison between two close and very similar communities in the City of Osasco case (a town with 650,000 people in the São Paulo metropolitan area). One of them, Jardim Canaã, was fortunated to receive the titles in 2007, the other, Jardim DR, given fiscal constraints, only will be part of the program schedule in 2012, and for that reason became the control group. Also, this thesis also aims to test if there is any relationship between land title and happiness. The estimates suggest that titling results in a substantial decrease of child labor force participation, increase of income and happiness for the families that received the title compared to the others.
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We examine bivariate extensions of Aït-Sahalia’s approach to the estimation of univariate diffusions. Our message is that extending his idea to a bivariate setting is not straightforward. In higher dimensions, as opposed to the univariate case, the elements of the Itô and Fokker-Planck representations do not coincide; and, even imposing sensible assumptions on the marginal drifts and volatilities is not sufficient to obtain direct generalisations. We develop exploratory estimation and testing procedures, by parametrizing the drifts of both component processes and setting restrictions on the terms of either the Itô or the Fokker-Planck covariance matrices. This may lead to highly nonlinear ordinary differential equations, where the definition of boundary conditions is crucial. For the methods developed, the Fokker-Planck representation seems more tractable than the Itô’s. Questions for further research include the design of regularity conditions on the time series dependence in the data, the kernels actually used and the bandwidths, to obtain asymptotic properties for the estimators proposed. A particular case seems promising: “causal bivariate models” in which only one of the diffusions contributes to the volatility of the other. Hedging strategies which estimate separately the univariate diffusions at stake may thus be improved.
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Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.
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The aim of this paper is to analyze extremal events using Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD), considering explicitly the uncertainty about the threshold. Current practice empirically determines this quantity and proceeds by estimating the GPD parameters based on data beyond it, discarding all the information available be10w the threshold. We introduce a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the center and a GPD for the tail of the distributions and uses all observations for inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold inc1uded. Prior distribution for the parameters are indirectly obtained through experts quantiles elicitation. Posterior inference is available through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Simulations are carried out in order to analyze the performance of our proposed mode1 under a wide range of scenarios. Those scenarios approximate realistic situations found in the literature. We also apply the proposed model to a real dataset, Nasdaq 100, an index of the financiai market that presents many extreme events. Important issues such as predictive analysis and model selection are considered along with possible modeling extensions.
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The objective of this study is to better understand and illustrate the process and the motivations for corporate governance implementation in Brazilian privately held family businesses. Three case companies were analyzed through an adapted developmental framework to illustrate the progression in corporate governance in response to changes in the ownership, investment and management dimensions over time. In this development, causal relationships between corporate governance and the three other framework dimensions were identified. It was found that the analyzed companies´ corporate governance implementation was motivated by the need to curb agency costs, whereas a cornerstone in this development was the first generational change. Only after the family businesses have reached the necessary maturity on all three dimensions, corporate governance practices were implemented. Put simply, the analyzed case companies developed formal systems as they grew more complex. This study complements the academic discussions on corporate governance in family businesses by offering Brazilian evidence on its underlying motivations and sequential implementation over time.
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Nota: A autora agradece à Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) pela concessão de bolsa de estudos para o desenvolvimento deste projeto de pesquisa.
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This dissertation presents two papers on how to deal with simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. The first paper deals with the Granger-causation of systemic risk indicators based in correlation matrices in stock returns. Special focus is devoted to the Eigenvalue Entropy as some previous literature indicated strong re- sults, but not considering different macroeconomic scenarios; the Index Cohesion Force and the Absorption Ratio are also considered. Considering the S&P500, there is not ev- idence of Granger-causation from Eigenvalue Entropies and the Index Cohesion Force. The Absorption Ratio Granger-caused both the S&P500 and the VIX index, being the only simple measure that passed this test. The second paper develops this measure to capture the regimes underlying the American stock market. New indicators are built using filtering and random matrix theory. The returns of the S&P500 is modelled as a mixture of normal distributions. The activation of each normal distribution is governed by a Markov chain with the transition probabilities being a function of the indicators. The model shows that using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of the normalized eigenval- ues exhibits best fit to the returns from 1998-2013.
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The present work analyzes the impact of negative social / environmental events on the market value of supply chain partners. The study offers a contextualized discussion around important concepts which are largely employed on the Operations Management and Management literature in general. Among them, the developments of the literature around supply chains, supply chain management, corporate social responsibility, sustainable development and sustainable supply chain management are particularly addressed, beyond the links they share with competitive advantage. As for the theoretical bases, the study rests on the Stakeholder Theory, on the discussion of the efficient-market hypothesis and on the discussion of the adjustment of stock prices to new information. In face of such literature review negative social / environmental events are then hypothesized as causing negative impact in the market value of supply chain partners. Through the documental analysis of publicly available information around 15 different cases (i.e. 15 events), 82 supply chain partners were identified. Event studies for seven different event windows were conducted on the variation of the stock price of each supply chain partner, valuing the market reaction to the stock price of a firm due to triggering events occurred in another. The results show that, in general, the market value of supply chain partners was not penalized in response to such announcements. In that sense, the hypothesis derived from the literature review is not confirmed. Beyond that, the study also provides a critical description of the 15 cases, identifying the companies that have originated such events and their supply chain partners involved.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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This work presents the cashew nuts chain in the State of Rio Grande do Norte between 1960 and 2009. The main purpose of this research was to find the reason of the low productivity of the cashew nut in this state, identifying in the cashew's chain production the struggling points which were limiting the commerce of this product through the distribution network. Therefore, the Supply Chain Management was used as a logistic analysis methodology, focusing on relationships management between the nodes of this chain, from the producer until the final customer. Many problems were found: first, the precarious production conditions of the small producer don't lead to reach the demanded productivity by the market. The distance, the lack of communication of the small producers among themselves and an archaic way of dealing with their businesses, may be an explanatory reason for this problem, considering that those factors are the main elements which contribute for the weakening of the small producer placed in the productive chain. Another spotted point was that the business-oriented relationship between the producer and the local trader does not allow the small producer's economical development, which interferes in any technological investment to reach a good quality production that fulfills the market demand. And also, the fact that there is a tendency of the final costumer to require lower prices day-byday, forcing a pressure on the nodes transferring to the other and successively until arriving at the producer who inevitably is suffering the biggest impacts from this mentioned pressure.
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This research aims to study the manioc flour productive chain in order to understand how the relationship between its segments happens, specially between the flour agroindustry and the distribuition. This research was made from a study of case that envolved three agro industries from the Potiguar wasteland and a company of food distribution. The filiére and the supply chain management analysis were applied to identify the functioning and the organization of the manioc flour productive chain. From the study of case it s noticed that the existing contracts, even the informal ones, has mutual benefits and it suggests that they be legalized
Differential gene expression analysis of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis during keratinocyte infection
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Starting from the idea that the result of the Humean analysis of causal inferences must be applied coherently to the remaining part of his work, including its moral theory, the present master thesis aims at investigating whether Hume´s moral philosophy is essentially based on feeling, or whether this would not be rather essentially a consequence of our causal inferences in human actions and deliberations. The main idea consists in showing that our moral inferences, to the extent that they are for Hume empirical , depend on our belief in a connexion between something which has been previously observed and something which is not being observed ( but that it is expected to occur or to be observed in the future). Thus, this very belief must base our moral inferences concerning the actions and deliberations of the individuals. Therefore, must e o ipso induce us to associate actions and behaviors, as well as character and moral claims of men to certain moral feelings. Accordingly, the thesis is unfolded in three chapters. In the first chapter Hume´s theory of the perception is reported as essential part of the explanation or the principles that bind ideas in our mind and constitute our inferences. In the second chapter, the Humean analysis of causal inferences is presented and the way they contribute in the formation of our moral inferences is explained. In the third and last chapter, the formation of our moral inferences and the real contribution of the doctrine of freedom and necessity for the examination or our actions are analysed and discussed.