The prognostic value of semi-quantitative i-123 mibg scintigraphy at diagnosis in high risk neuroblastoma: validation of the siopen score method

Purpose: SIOPEN scoring of 123I mIBG imaging has been shown to predict response to induction chemotherapy and outcome at diagnosis in children with HRN.Method: Patterns of skeletal 123I mIBG uptake were assigned numerical scores (Mscore) ranging from 0 (no metastasis) to 72 (diffuse metastases) within 12 body areas as described previously. 271 anonymised, paired image data sets acquired at diagnosis and on completion of Rapid COJEC induction chemotherapy were reviewed, constituting a representative sample of 1602 children treated prospectively within the HR-NBL1/SIOPEN trial. Pre-and post-treatment Mscores were compared with bone marrow cytology (BM) and 3 year event free survival (EFS).Results: Results 224/271 patients showed skeletal MIBG-uptake at diagnosis and were evaluable forMIBG-response. Complete response (CR) on MIBG to Rapid COJEC induction was achieved by 66%, 34% and 15% of patients who had pre-treatment Mscores of <18 (n¼65, 29%), 18-44 (n¼95,42%) and Y ´ 45 (n¼64, 28.5%) respectively (chi squared test p<.0001). Mscore at diagnosis and on completion of Rapid COJEC correlated strongly with BM involvement (p<0.0001). The correlation of pre score with post scores and response was highly significant (p<0.001). Most importantly, the 3 year EFS in 47 children with Mscore 0 at diagnosis was 0.68 (A ` 0.07), by comparison with 0.42 (A` 0.06), 0.35 (A` 0.05) and 0.25 (A` 0.06) for patients in pre-treatment score groups <18, 18-44 and Y ´ 45, respectively (p<0.001). AnMscore threshold ofY ´ 45 at diagnosis was associated with significantly worse outcome by comparison with all other Mscore groups (p¼0.029). The 3 year EFS of 0.53 (A` 0.07) of patients in metastatic CR (mIBG and BM) after Rapid Cojec (33%) is clearly superior to patients not achieving metastatic CR (0.24 (A ` 0.04), p¼0.005).Conclusion: SIOPEN scoring of 123I mIBG imaging has been shown to predict response to induction chemotherapy and outcome at diagnosis in children with HRN.

[(18)F]FDG-PET Standard Uptake Value as a Metabolic Predictor of Bone Marrow Response to Radiation: Impact on Acute and Late Hematological Toxicity in Cervical Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship between bone marrow (BM) response to radiation and radiation dose by using (18)F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography [(18)F]FDG-PET standard uptake values (SUV) and to correlate these findings with hematological toxicity (HT) in cervical cancer (CC) patients treated with chemoradiation therapy (CRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Seventeen women with a diagnosis of CC were treated with standard doses of CRT. All patients underwent pre- and post-therapy [(18)F]FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT). Hemograms were obtained before and during treatment and 3 months after treatment and at last follow-up. Pelvic bone was autosegmented as total bone marrow (BMTOT). Active bone marrow (BMACT) was contoured based on SUV greater than the mean SUV of BMTOT. The volumes (V) of each region receiving 10, 20, 30, and 40 Gy (V10, V20, V30, and V40, respectively) were calculated. Metabolic volume histograms and voxel SUV map response graphs were created. Relative changes in SUV before and after therapy were calculated by separating SUV voxels into radiation therapy dose ranges of 5 Gy. The relationships among SUV decrease, radiation dose, and HT were investigated using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Mean relative pre-post-therapy SUV reductions in BMTOT and BMACT were 27% and 38%, respectively. BMACT volume was significantly reduced after treatment (from 651.5 to 231.6 cm(3), respectively; P<.0001). BMACT V30 was significantly correlated with a reduction in BMACT SUV (R(2), 0.14; P<.001). The reduction in BMACT SUV significantly correlated with reduction in white blood cells (WBCs) at 3 months post-treatment (R(2), 0.27; P=.04) and at last follow-up (R(2), 0.25; P=.04). Different dosimetric parameters of BMTOT and BMACT correlated with long-term hematological outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The volumes of BMTOT and BMACT that are exposed to even relatively low doses of radiation are associated with a decrease in WBC counts following CRT. The loss in proliferative BM SUV uptake translates into low WBC nadirs after treatment. These results suggest the potential of intensity modulated radiation therapy to spare BMTOT to reduce long-term hematological toxicity.

Dépistage des cancers en pratique clinique: une place privilégiée pour le partage de la décision. [Cancer screening in clinical practice: the value of shared decision-making]

Shared decision-making approach to uncertain clinical situations such as cancer screening seems more appropriate than ever. Shared decision making can be defined as an interactive process where physician and patient share all the stages of the decision making process. For patients who wish to be implicated in the management of their health conditions, physicians might express difficulty to do so. Use of patient decision aids appears to improve such process of shared decision making. L'incertitude quant à l'efficacité de certains dépistages de cancers et du traitement en cas de test positif rend l'application du partage de la décision particulièrement appropriée. Le concept du partage de la décision peut être défini comme un processus interactif où le médecin et le patient partagent les étapes du processus de décision. Face aux patients qui désirent être impliqués dans les décisions concernant leur santé, les médecins peinent parfois à le faire. Or, l'utilisation d'outils d'aide à la décision est un moyen efficace de favoriser ce partage de l'information et, si souhaité par le patient, de la décision.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Effects of expanding on the nutritive value of wheat bran in pig diets

Selostus: Ekspanderkäsittelyn vaikutus vehnänleseen rehuarvoon lihasian ruokinnassa

Chemoendocrine compared with endocrine adjuvant therapies for node-negative breast cancer: predictive value of centrally reviewed expression of estrogen and progesterone receptors--International Breast Cancer Study Group.

PURPOSE: To centrally assess estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) levels by immunohistochemistry and investigate their predictive value for benefit of chemo-endocrine compared with endocrine adjuvant therapy alone in two randomized clinical trials for node-negative breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VIII compared cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) chemotherapy for 6 cycles followed by endocrine therapy with goserelin with either modality alone in pre- and perimenopausal patients. Trial IX compared three cycles of CMF followed by tamoxifen for 5 years versus tamoxifen alone in postmenopausal patients. Central Pathology Office reviewed 883 (83%) of 1,063 patients on Trial VIII and 1,365 (82%) of 1,669 on Trial IX and determined ER and PgR by immunohistochemistry. Disease-free survival (DFS) was compared across the spectrum of expression of each receptor using the Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot methodology. RESULTS: Both receptors displayed a bimodal distribution, with substantial proportions showing no staining (receptor absent) and most of the remainder showing a high percentage of stained cells. Chemo-endocrine therapy yielded DFS superior to endocrine therapy alone for patients with receptor-absent tumors, and in some cases also for those with low levels of receptor expression. Among patients with ER-expressing tumors, additional prediction of benefit was suggested in absent or low PgR in Trial VIII but not in Trial IX. CONCLUSION: Low levels of ER and PgR are predictive of the benefit of adding chemotherapy to endocrine therapy. Low PgR may add further prediction among pre- and perimenopausal but not postmenopausal patients whose tumors express ER.

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Media, investors and bubbles

We analysed the specific case of how information in the financial press influences economic bubbles. We found considerable flaws in the information market due to several factors: demand, the predominance of what are termed “irrational investors” (herding), and supply, which has the problem that the sources of information are biasedand feeds. A financial bubble is a deviation between real value of a financial asset and its persistent market price in time, which also has a speculative origin fed back by the illusion of the owners of these financial values, who will take benefits because of the future prices, which must be higher than the previous ones. The economical information in the media is submitting three problems. First of all, it is information generated by companies. In second place, the information circuit is fed back. A problem of informative independence becomes created, particularly serious in the case of the banks, which are very were as creditors. And in a third place, some informative biases are manifested for the companies of regulated sectors which are starring the economical information in the media.

Prognostic value of continuous EEG monitoring during therapeutic hypothermia after cardiac arrest.

Introduction: Continuous EEG (cEEG) is increasingly used to monitor brain function in neuro-ICU patients. However, its value in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA), particularly in the setting of therapeutic hypothermia (TH), is only beginning to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to examine whether cEEG performed during TH may predict outcome. Methods: From April 2009 to April 2010, we prospectively studied 34 consecutive comatose patients treated with TH after CA who were monitored with cEEG, initiated during hypothermia and maintained after rewarming. EEG background reactivity to painful stimulation was tested. We analyzed the association between cEEG findings and neurologic outcome, assessed at 2 months with the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Results: Continuous EEG recording was started 12 ± 6 hours after CA and lasted 30 ± 11 hours. Nonreactive cEEG background (12 of 15 (75%) among nonsurvivors versus none of 19 (0) survivors; P < 0.001) and prolonged discontinuous "burst-suppression" activity (11 of 15 (73%) versus none of 19; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with mortality. EEG seizures with absent background reactivity also differed significantly (seven of 15 (47%) versus none of 12 (0); P = 0.001). In patients with nonreactive background or seizures/epileptiform discharges on cEEG, no improvement was seen after TH. Nonreactive cEEG background during TH had a positive predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval (CI), 74 to 100%) and a false-positive rate of 0 (95% CI, 0 to 18%) for mortality. All survivors had cEEG background reactivity, and the majority of them (14 (74%) of 19) had a favorable outcome (CPC 1 or 2). Conclusions: Continuous EEG monitoring showing a nonreactive or discontinuous background during TH is strongly associated with unfavorable outcome in patients with coma after CA. These data warrant larger studies to confirm the value of continuous EEG monitoring in predicting prognosis after CA and TH.

Medicaid Value Management Program SFY 2008 Report Executive Summary, 2007

In SFY 2007 the Medicaid Value Management program was developed under the direction of the Iowa Medicaid Director to establish a more comprehensive approach for improving the quality and value of medical services to Iowa Medicaid members. Medical services Unit provided the leadership for the program development and implementation.

Medicaid Value Management Program SFY 2008 Report Executive Summary, 2007

In June, 2007, the Commonwealth Fund released a report entitled, “Aiming Higher: Results from a State Scorecard on Health System Performance.” The report ranked states’ health care performance based upon four areas: access, quality, potentially avoidable use of hospitals and costs of care, and healthy lives. Iowa was ranked second overall and was the only state to rank in the top 25 percent on each of the four measures.1 Coupling the HEDIS measures and CAHPS survey results with the Commonwealth report outcomes provides additional information for determining how the state performs with regard to the health care system, in general, and the Medicaid program specifically. For the past five years the results of eight outcome measures encompassing children and adults, and preventive, chronic and acute care have been reported by the University of Iowa Public Policy Center (PPC). The PPC is the independent evaluator for the Medicaid managed care programs and assists the state in an effort to understand the process of care within the Medicaid program. Seven of the eight measures are recommended by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, while the eighth, annual dental visit, is used in recognition of the challenges found in providing dental care to Medicaid‐enrolled children and adults.