Estimating the Price of ROCs

The UK government introduced the Renewable Obligation (RO), a system of tradable quotas, to encourage the installation of renewable electricity capacity. Each unit of generation from renewables created a renewable obligation certificate (ROC). Electricity generators must either; earn ROCs through their own production, purchase ROCs in the market or pay the buy-out price to comply with the quota set by the RO. A unique aspect of this regulation is that all entities holding ROCs receive a share of the buy-out fund (the sum of all compliance purchases using the buy-out price). This set-up ensures that the difference between the market price for ROCs and the buy-out price should equal the expected share of the buy-out fund, as regulated entities arbitrage these two compliance options. The expected share of the buy-out fund depends on whether enough renewable generation is available to meet the quota. This analysis tests whether variables associated with renewable generation or electricity demand are correlated with, and thus can help predict, the price of ROCs.

Penalizing Cartels: The Case for Basing Penalties on Price Overcharge

In this paper we set out the welfare economics based case for imposing cartel penalties on the cartel overcharge rather than on the more conventional bases of revenue or profits (illegal gains). To do this we undertake a systematic comparison of a penalty based on the cartel overcharge with three other penalty regimes: fixed penalties; penalties based on revenue, and penalties based on profits. Our analysis is the first to compare these regimes in terms of their impact on both (i) the prices charged by those cartels that do form; and (ii) the number of stable cartels that form (deterrence). We show that the class of penalties based on profits is identical to the class of fixed penalties in all welfare-relevant respects. For the other three types of penalty we show that, for those cartels that do form, penalties based on the overcharge produce lower prices than those based on profit) while penalties based on revenue produce the highest prices. Further, in conjunction with the above result, our analysis of cartel stability (and thus deterrence), shows that penalties based on the overcharge out-perform those based on profits, which in turn out-perform those based on revenue in terms of their impact on each of the following welfare criteria: (a) average overcharge; (b) average consumer surplus; (c) average total welfare.

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Methodology in structural determination and synthesis of insect pheromone

By means of ethereal washing of insect pheromone glands of female moths, GC-MS detection along with microchemical reactions and electroantennogram (EAG) survey, six economically important insect species were targeted for pheromone identification. The discovery of a natural pheromone inhibitor, chemo-selectivity and species isolation by pheromone will be described. The modified triple bond migration and triethylamine liganded vinyl cuprate were applied for achiral pheromone synthesis in double bond formation. Some optically active pheromones and their stereoisomers were synthesized through chiral pool or asymmetric synthesis. Some examples of chiral recognition of insects towards their chiral pheromones will be discussed. A CaH2 and silica gel catalyzed Sharpless Expoxidation Reaction was found in shortening the reaction time.

Species identification in mammals from mixed biological samples based on mitochondrial DNA control region length polymorphism.

The ability to identify the species origin of an unknown biological sample is relevant in the fields of human and wildlife forensics. However, the detection of several species mixed in the same sample still remains a challenge. We developed and tested a new approach for mammal DNA identification in mixtures of two or three species, based on the analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region interspecific length polymorphism followed by direct sequencing. Contrary to other published methods dealing with species mixtures, our protocol requires a single universal primer pair and is not based on a pre-defined panel of species. Amplicons can be separated either on agarose gels or using CE. The advantages and limitations of the assay are discussed under different conditions, such as variable template concentration, amplicon sizes and size difference among the amplicons present in the mixture. For the first time, this protocol provides a simple, reliable and flexible method for simultaneous identification of multiple mammalian species from mixtures, without any prior knowledge of the species involved.

Sequence conservation in Plasmodium falciparum alpha-helical coiled coil domains proposed for vaccine development.

BACKGROUND: The availability of the P. falciparum genome has led to novel ways to identify potential vaccine candidates. A new approach for antigen discovery based on the bioinformatic selection of heptad repeat motifs corresponding to alpha-helical coiled coil structures yielded promising results. To elucidate the question about the relationship between the coiled coil motifs and their sequence conservation, we have assessed the extent of polymorphism in putative alpha-helical coiled coil domains in culture strains, in natural populations and in the single nucleotide polymorphism data available at PlasmoDB. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 14 alpha-helical coiled coil domains were selected based on preclinical experimental evaluation. They were tested by PCR amplification and sequencing of different P. falciparum culture strains and field isolates. We found that only 3 out of 14 alpha-helical coiled coils showed point mutations and/or length polymorphisms. Based on promising immunological results 5 of these peptides were selected for further analysis. Direct sequencing of field samples from Papua New Guinea and Tanzania showed that 3 out of these 5 peptides were completely conserved. An in silico analysis of polymorphism was performed for all 166 putative alpha-helical coiled coil domains originally identified in the P. falciparum genome. We found that 82% (137/166) of these peptides were conserved, and for one peptide only the detected SNPs decreased substantially the probability score for alpha-helical coiled coil formation. More SNPs were found in arrays of almost perfect tandem repeats. In summary, the coiled coil structure prediction was rarely modified by SNPs. The analysis revealed a number of peptides with strictly conserved alpha-helical coiled coil motifs. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the selection of alpha-helical coiled coil structural motifs is a valuable approach to identify potential vaccine targets showing a high degree of conservation.

Transitions in social complexity along elevational gradients reveal a combined impact of season length and development time on social evolution.

Eusociality is taxonomically rare, yet associated with great ecological success. Surprisingly, studies of environmental conditions favouring eusociality are often contradictory. Harsh conditions associated with increasing altitude and latitude seem to favour increased sociality in bumblebees and ants, but the reverse pattern is found in halictid bees and polistine wasps. Here, we compare the life histories and distributions of populations of 176 species of Hymenoptera from the Swiss Alps. We show that differences in altitudinal distributions and development times among social forms can explain these contrasting patterns: highly social taxa develop more quickly than intermediate social taxa, and are thus able to complete the reproductive cycle in shorter seasons at higher elevations. This dual impact of altitude and development time on sociality illustrates that ecological constraints can elicit dynamic shifts in behaviour, and helps explain the complex distribution of sociality across ecological gradients.

Development of an optimized methodology for tensile testing of carbon steels in hydrogen environment

The study was performed at OCAS, the Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal for the Industry market. The major aim of this research was to obtain an optimized tensile testing methodology with in-situ H-charging to reveal the hydrogen embrittlement in various high strength steels. The second aim of this study has been the mechanical characterization of the hydrogen effect on hight strength carbon steels with varying microstructure, i.e. ferrite-martensite and ferrite-bainite grades. The optimal parameters for H-charging - which influence the tensile test results (sample geometry type of electrolyte, charging methods effect of steel type, etc.) - were defined and applied to Slow Strain Rate testing, Incremental Step Loading and Constant Load Testing. To better understand the initiation and propagation of cracks during tensile testing with in-situ H-charging, and to make the correlation with crystallographic orientation, some materials have been analyzed in the SEM in combination with the EBSD technique. The introduction of a notch on the tensile samples permits to reach a significantly improved reproducibility of the results. Comparing the various steel grades reveals that Dual Phase (ferrite-martensite) steels are more sensitive to hydrogen induced cracking than the FB (ferritic-bainitic) ones. This higher sensitivity to hydrogen was found back in the reduced failure times, increased creep rates and enhanced crack initiation (SEM) for the Dual Phase steels in comparison with the FB steels.

Chemical profiling of different hashish seizures by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and statistical methodology: a case report

Limited information is available regarding the methodology required to characterize hashish seizures for assessing the presence or the absence of a chemical link between two seizures. This casework report presents the methodology applied for assessing that two different police seizures were coming from the same block before this latter one was split. The chemical signature was extracted using GC-MS analysis and the implemented methodology consists in a study of intra- and inter-variability distributions based on the measurement of the chemical profiles similarity using a number of hashish seizures and the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Different statistical scenarios (i.e., a combination of data pretreatment techniques and selection of target compounds) were tested to find the most discriminating one. Seven compounds showing high discrimination capabilities were selected on which a specific statistical data pretreatment was applied. Based on the results, the statistical model built for comparing the hashish seizures leads to low error rates. Therefore, the implemented methodology is suitable for the chemical profiling of hashish seizures.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Scientific Evidence in Europe : Admissibility, Evaluation and Equality of Arms

This study was commissioned by the European Committee on Crime Problems at the Council of Europe to describe and discuss the standards used to asses the admissibility and appraisal of scientific evidence in various member countries. After documenting cases in which faulty forensic evidence seems to have played a critical role, the authors describe the legal foundations of the issues of admissibility and assessment of the probative value in the field of scientific evidence, contrasting criminal justice systems of accusatorial and inquisitorial tradition and the various risks that they pose in terms of equality of arms. Special attention is given to communication issues between lawyers and scientific experts. The authors eventually investigate possible ways of improving the system. Among these mechanisms, emphasis is put on the adoption of a common terminology for expressing the weight of evidence. It is also proposed to adopt an harmonized interpretation framework among forensic experts rooted in good practices of logical inference.

Identificación de variedades de vitis vinifera procedentes de diferentes regiones del mundo mediante tècnica de biologia molecular de los microsatéllites

El objetivo de este estudio se centró en analizar una colección privada de germoplasma de Vitis vinifera L., de 338 cultivares procedentes de 24 países, para caracterizarlas creando una base de datos, utilizando 11 marcadores microsatélites o SSR (Simple Sequence Repeat). Como resultado se encontraron que algunas de las muestras analizadas presentaron un perfil idéntico de SSR, indicando que se trata de una sinonimia (la misma variedad pero con diferente nombre). Se detectaron 293 perfiles únicos. Adicionalmente, 15 pares de variedades presentaron diferencias en un solo locus y otros 7 grupos difieren en 2 loci, lo cual indicaría la alta proximidad genética entre esas variedades, sin llegar a ser la misma. El germoplasma analizado cuenta con una compleja biodiversidad varietal que se debe preservar. El estudio se realizó programando para el primer año la revisión bibliográfica detallada, recolección de las hojas y el inicio de la puesta a punto de la metodología, en el segundo año se completa la puesta a punto de la metodología, se trituran las hojas y se realiza la extraccinón del ADN. El tercer año se emplea para amplificar los fragmentos de ADN por medio de la PCR (reacción en cadena de la polimerasa), obtener la longitud de los fragmentos con un secuenciador ABI PRISM 310, valorar resultados y realizar repeticiones. El último año se analizan los resultados obtenidos, se realizan repeticiones pertinentes y se comienza la redacción de artículos científicos.

Appropriate treatment for Crohn's disease: methodology and summary results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel approach--EPACT.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: For many therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease (CD), high-grade evidence is lacking. To assist clinical decision-making, explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria were developed by an international, multidisciplinary expert panel. METHODS: 10 gastroenterologists, 3 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from 12 European countries assessed the appropriateness of therapy for CD using the RAND Appropriateness Method. Their assessment was based on the study of a recent literature review of the subject, combined with their own expert clinical judgment. Panelists rated clinical indications and treatment options using a 9-point scale (1 = extremely inappropriate; 9 = extremely appropriate). These scenarios were then discussed in detail at the panel meeting and re-rated. Median ratings and disagreement were used to aggregate ratings into three assessment categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). RESULTS: 569 specific indications were rated, dealing with 9 clinical presentations: mild/moderate luminal CD (n = 104), severe CD (n = 126), steroid-dependent CD (n = 25), steroid-refractory CD (n = 37), fistulizing CD (n = 49), fibrostenotic CD (n = 35), maintenance of medical remission of CD (n = 84), maintenance of surgical remission (n = 78), drug safety in pregnancy (n = 24) and use of infliximab (n = 7). Overall, 146 indications (26%) were judged appropriate, 129 (23%) uncertain and 294 (52%) inappropriate. Frank disagreement was low (14% overall) with the greatest disagreement (54% of scenarios) being observed for treatment of steroid-refractory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed explicit appropriateness criteria for the appropriate use of therapy for CD were developed for the first time by a European expert panel. Disease location, severity and previous treatments were the main factors taken into account. User-friendly access to EPACT criteria is available via an Internet site, www.epact.ch, allowing prospective evaluation and improvement of appropriateness of current CD therapy.