Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Effect of water quality and season on the population dynamics of Cabomba caroliniana in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

Effect of water quality and season on the population dynamics of Cabomba caroliniana in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

Neutron Scattering and Molecular Dynamics Evidence for Levitation Effect in Nanopores

Neutron Scattering and Molecular Dynamics Evidence for Levitation Effect in Nanopores ... Neutron scattering measurements and molecular dynamics simulations have been carried out on the three isomers of pentane (neopentane (neo), isopentane (iso), and n-pentane (n-)) adsorbed in zeolite NaY. ... In order to understand this surprising dependence, the dimensionless levitation parameter, γ, for atomic systems may be modified to suit molecular systems.

Understanding the information dynamics of medication administration in residential aged care facilities (RACFs): A prerequisite for design of effective ICT systems

Medication information is a critical part of the information required to ensure residents' safety in the highly collaborative care context of RACFs. Studies report poor medication information as a barrier to improve medication management in RACFs. Research exploring medication work practices in aged care settings remains limited. This study aimed to identify contextual and work practice factors contributing to breakdowns in medication information exchange in RACFs in relation to the medication administration process. We employed non-participant observations and semi-structured interviews to explore information practices in three Australian RACFs. Findings identified inefficiencies due to lack of information timeliness, manual stock management, multiple data transcriptions, inadequate design of essential documents such as administration sheets and a reliance on manual auditing procedures. Technological solutions such as electronic medication administration records offer opportunities to overcome some of the identified problems. However these interventions need to be designed to align with the collaborative team based processes they intend to support.

Hybrid Simulation of Queuing-System Dynamics

This paper presents a simple hybrid computer technique to study the transient behaviour of queueing systems. This method is superior to stand-alone analog or digital solution because the hardware requirement is excessive for analog technique whereas computation time is appreciable in the latter case. By using a hybrid computer one can share the analog hardware thus requiring fewer integrators. The digital processor can store the values, play them back at required time instants and change the coefficients of differential equations. By speeding up the integration on the analog computer it is feasible to solve a large number of these equations very fast. Hybrid simulation is even superior to the analytic technique because in the latter case it is difficult to solve time-varying differential equations.

Dynamics of nitrate-nitrogen removal in experimental stormwater biofilters under intermittent wetting and drying

High concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen degrade the quality of aquatic environments. The primary mechanism by which nitrate-nitrogen is removed (denitrification) requires anoxic conditions and electron donors. While removal of total and ammonium-nitrogen is often high in stormwater biofilters, poor removal or even the release of nitrate-nitrogen in the outflow has often been observed. Five Perspex biofilter columns (94 mm internal diameter) were fabricated with a filter layer that contained 8% organic material. Columns were operated at 875  mm/h 875  mm/h and fed with simulated stormwater with different antecedent dry days (ADDs) and concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen. Samples were collected from the outflow at different time intervals between 2 and 150 min and were tested for nitrate-nitrogen. The removal of nitrate-nitrogen varied during an event from a high removal percentage (60–90%) in the initial outflow that gradually decreased in the first 30 min and settled at 0–15% removal thereafter. This remained consistent during all simulated events independent of the number of ADDs or inflow concentrations. ADDs and previous event feed concentrations affected the outflow nitrate-nitrogen concentration in the first 30 min of the current event. Therefore, from this study it is concluded that denitrification within stormwater biofilters occurs mainly during drying periods rather than wetting periods.

Transitioning from university to the workplace: Stakeholder perceptions of academic and professional writing demands

This study provides a detailed insight into the changing writing demands from the last year of university study to the first year in the workforce of engineering and accounting professionals. The study relates these to the demands of the writing component of IELTS, which is increasingly used for exit testing. The number of international and local students whose first language is not English and who are studying in English-medium universities has increased significantly in the past decade. Many of these students aim to start working in the country they studied in; however, some employers have suggested that graduates seeking employment have insufficient language skills. This study provides a detailed insight into the changing writing demands from the last year of university study to the first year in the workforce of engineering and accounting professionals (our two case study professions). It relates these to the demands of the writing component of IELTS, which is increasingly used for exit or professional entry testing, although not expressly designed for this purpose. Data include interviews with final year students, lecturers, employers and new graduates in their first few years in the workforce, as well as professional board members. Employers also reviewed both final year assignments, as well as IELTS writing samples at different levels. Most stakeholders agreed that graduates entering the workforce are underprepared for the writing demands in their professions. When compared with the university writing tasks, the workplace writing expected of new graduates was perceived as different in terms of genre, the tailoring of a text for a specific audience, and processes of review and editing involved. Stakeholders expressed a range of views on the suitability of the use of academic proficiency tests (such as IELTS) as university exit tests and for entry into the professions. With regard to IELTS, while some saw the relevance of the two writing tasks, particularly in relation to academic writing, others questioned the extent to which two timed tasks representing limited genres could elicit a representative sample of the professional writing required, particularly in the context of engineering. The findings are discussed in relation to different test purposes, the intersection between academic and specific purpose testing and the role of domain experts in test validation.

Symmetries and constraints in generalized Hamiltonian dynamics

A general analysis of symmetries and constraints for singular Lagrangian systems is given. It is shown that symmetry transformations can be expressed as canonical transformations in phase space, even for such systems. The relation of symmetries to generators, constraints, commutators, and Dirac brackets is clarified.

Dynamics of a class of social interaction systems

A mathematical model of social interaction in the form of two coupler! first-order non-linear differential equations, forms the topic of this study. This non-conservative model io representative of such varied social interaction problems as coexisting sub-populations of two different species, arms race between two rival countries and the like. Differential transformation techniques developed elsewhere in the literature are seen to be effective tools of dynamic analysis of this non-linear non-conservative mode! of social interaction process.

Dynamics of carbohydrateâlectin interaction The interaction p-nitrophenyl-β-D-galactose with a lectin from Ricinius communis

L&in-induced agglutination is a complex process determined by several factprs such as the nature of lectin (valency, binding constant) the properties of cell membrane (fluidity, distribution of lectin receptor sites) and the metabolic state of the cell (microvilli, microtubules, microfilament) [l-3].

Dynamics of Circulating Concentrations of Gonadotropins and Ovarian Hormones Throughout the Menstrual Cycle in the Bonnet Monkey: Role of Inhibin A in the Regulation of Follicle-Stimulating Hormone Secretion

In higher primates, increased circulating follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels seen during late menstrual cycle and during menstruation has been suggested to be necessary for initiation of follicular growth, recruitment of follicles and eventually culminating in ovulation of a single follicle. With a view to establish the dynamics of circulating FSH secretion with that of inhibin A (INH A) and progesterone (P-4)secretions during the menstrual cycle, blood was collected daily from bonnet monkeys beginning day 1 of the menstrual cycle up to 35 days. Serum INH A levels were low during early follicular phase, increased significantly coinciding with the mid cycle luteinizing hormone (LH) surge to reach maximal levels during the mid luteal phase before declining at the late luteal phase, essentially paralleling the pattern Of P-4 secretion seen throughout the luteal phase. Circulating FSH levels were low during early and mid luteal phases, but progressively increased during the late luteal phase and remained high for few days after the onset of menses. In another experiment, lutectomy performed during the mid luteal phase resulted in significant decrease in INH A concentration within 2 hr (58.3 +/- 2 vs. 27.3 +/- 3 pg/mL), and a 2- to 3-fold rise in circulating FSH levels by 24 hr (0.20 +/- 0.02 vs. 0.53 +/- 0.14 ng/mL) that remained high until 48 hr postlutectomy. Systemic administration of Cetrorelix (150 mu g/kg body weight), a gonadotropin releasing hormone receptor antagonist, at mid luteal phase in monkeys led to suppression of serum INH A and P-4 concentrations 24 hr post treatment, but circulating FSH levels did not change. Administration of exogenous LH, but not FSH, significantly increased INH A concentration. The results taken together suggest a tight coupling between LH and INH A secretion and that INH A is largely responsible for maintenance of low FSH concentration seen during the luteal phase. Am. J. Primatol. 71:817-824, 2009.

Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.