Firms, do you know your currency risk exposure? Survey results

This paper surveys the currency risk management practices of Swiss industrial corporations. We find tha industrials do not quantify their currency risk exposure and investigate possible reasons. One possibility is that firms do not think they need to know because they use on-balance-sheet instruments to protect themselves before and after currency rates reach troublesome levels. This is puzzling because a rough estimate of at least cash flow exposure is not a prohibitive task and could be helpful. It is also puzzling that firms use currency derivatives to hedge/insure individual short-term transactions, without apparently trying to estimate aggregate transaction exposure.

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Tools for better SLM knowledge management and informed decision-making in addressing land degradation at different scales: the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology

Desertification research conventionally focuses on the problem – that is, degradation – while neglecting the appraisal of successful conservation practices. Based on the premise that Sustainable Land Management (SLM) experiences are not sufficiently or comprehensively documented, evaluated, and shared, the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) initiative (www.wocat.net), in collaboration with FAO’s Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) project (www.fao.org/nr/lada/) and the EU’s DESIRE project (http://www.desire-project.eu/), has developed standardised tools and methods for compiling and evaluating the biophysical and socio-economic knowledge available about SLM. The tools allow SLM specialists to share their knowledge and assess the impact of SLM at the local, national, and global levels. As a whole, the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology comprises tools for documenting, self-evaluating, and assessing the impact of SLM practices, as well as for knowledge sharing and decision support in the field, at the planning level, and in scaling up identified good practices. SLM depends on flexibility and responsiveness to changing complex ecological and socioeconomic causes of land degradation. The WOCAT tools are designed to reflect and capture this capacity of SLM. In order to take account of new challenges and meet emerging needs of WOCAT users, the tools are constantly further developed and adapted. Recent enhancements include tools for improved data analysis (impact and cost/benefit), cross-scale mapping, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management, and easier reporting on SLM best practices to UNCCD and other national and international partners. Moreover, WOCAT has begun to give land users a voice by backing conventional documentation with video clips straight from the field. To promote the scaling up of SLM, WOCAT works with key institutions and partners at the local and national level, for example advisory services and implementation projects. Keywords: Sustainable Land Management (SLM), knowledge management, decision-making, WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology.

Management of patients during hunger strike and refeeding phase

OBJECTIVE Hunger strikers resuming nutritional intake may develop a life-threatening refeeding syndrome (RFS). Consequently, hunger strikers represent a core challenge for the medical staff. The objective of the study was to test the effectiveness and safety of evidence-based recommendations for prevention and management of RFS during the refeeding phase. METHODS This was a retrospective, observational data analysis of 37 consecutive, unselected cases of prisoners on a hunger strike during a 5-y period. The sample consisted of 37 cases representing 33 individual patients. RESULTS In seven cases (18.9%), the hunger strike was continued during the hospital stay, in 16 episodes (43.2%) cessation of the hunger strike occurred immediately after admission to the security ward, and in 14 episodes (37.9%) during hospital stay. In the refeed cases (n = 30), nutritional replenishment occurred orally, and in 25 (83.3%) micronutrients substitutions were made based on the recommendations. The gradual refeeding with fluid restriction occurred over 10 d. Uncomplicated dyselectrolytemia was documented in 12 cases (40%) within the refeeding phase. One case (3.3%) presented bilateral ankle edemas as a clinical manifestation of moderate RFS. Intensive medical treatment was not necessary and none of the patients died. Seven episodes of continued hunger strike were observed during the entire hospital stay without medical complications. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggested that seriousness and rate of medical complications during the refeeding phase can be kept at a minimum in a hunger strike population. This study supported use of recommendations to optimize risk management and to improve treatment quality and patient safety in this vulnerable population.

Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Perception of employers and employees regarding the attitude of businesses toward the environment: a qualitative analysis

Commitment and involvement from the different members of an organization are two key elements for an organization to achieve its environmental excellence. Firstly, businesses are aware of the close relationship between their activities and the environment, for they are not only polluting agents but also agents with the capacity to reduce adverse environmental impacts. Secondly, the fact that employees can play a relevant role in terms of the socially responsible measures to be taken by organizations has started to become an irrefutably important issue. This piece of research is intended to help gain knowledge concerning the attitude of the two main actors in productive activity toward the environmental, that is, employers and employees; as well, this research intends to identify factors determining behaviour towards the environmental. For this, we have gathered the ideas and assessments contained in the discourse of a group of small and medium-sized businesses, large company owners and officers, employees, and work related risk prevention representatives. Qualitative work consisted of in-depth interviews and the creation of discussion groups.

Power management techniques in an FPGA-Based WSN node for high performance application

In this work, the power management techniques implemented in a high-performance node for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) based on a RAM-based FPGA are presented. This new node custom architecture is intended for high-end WSN applications that include complex sensor management like video cameras, high compute demanding tasks such as image encoding or robust encryption, and/or higher data bandwidth needs. In the case of these complex processing tasks, yet maintaining low power design requirements, it can be shown that the combination of different techniques such as extensive HW algorithm mapping, smart management of power islands to selectively switch on and off components, smart and low-energy partial reconfiguration, an adequate set of save energy modes and wake up options, all combined, may yield energy results that may compete and improve energy usage of typical low power microcontrollers used in many WSN node architectures. Actually, results show that higher complexity tasks are in favor of HW based platforms, while the flexibility achieved by dynamic and partial reconfiguration techniques could be comparable to SW based solutions.

Environmental risk assessment in open pit blasting operations: compliance with ISO 31010:2010

All activities of an organization involve risks that should be managed. The risk management process aids decision making by taking account of uncertainty and the possibility of future events or circumstances (intended or unintended) and their effects on agreed objectives. With that idea, new ISO Standard has been drawn up. ISO 31010 has been recently issued which provides a structured process that identifies how objectives may be affected, and analyses the risk in term of consequences and their probabilities before deciding on whether further treatment is required. In this lecture, that ISO Standard has been adapted to Open Pit Blasting Operations, focusing in Environmental effects which can be managed properly. Technique used is Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which is applied in all possible scenarios, providing to Blasting Professionals the tools to identify, analyze and manage environmental effects in blasting operations. Also this lecture can help to minimize each effect, studying each case. This paper also can be useful to Project Managers and Occupational Health and Safety Departments (OH&S) because blasting operations can be evaluated and compared one to each other to determine the risks that should be managed in different case studies. The environmental effects studied are: ground vibrations, flyrock and air overpressure (airblast). Sometimes, blasting operations are carried out near populated areas where environmental effects may impose several limitations on the use of explosives. In those cases, where these factors approach certain limits, National Standards and Regulations have to be applied.

Estudio de los riesgos técnicos aplicados al diseño y construcción de cimentaciones para máquinas

En el Código Técnico de la Edificación se define el riesgo como medida del alcance del peligro que representa un evento no deseado para las personas, expresado en términos de probabilidad vinculada a las consecuencias de un evento, también se expresa como Exigencia Básica de Resistencia y Estabilidad, que estas serán las adecuadas para que no se generen riesgos indebidos manteniendo la resistencia y estabilidad frente a las acciones e influencias previsibles durante la construcción y usos previstos de los edificios, y que además, los posibles eventos extraordinarios que puedan producirse no originen consecuencias desproporcionadas respecto a la causa original. Es ahora donde la gestión de riesgos juega un papel muy importante en la sociedad moderna, siendo esta cada vez más exigente con los resultados y calidad de productos y servicios, además de cumplir también con la responsabilidad jurídica que trae la concepción, diseño y construcción de proyectos de gran envergadura como los son la obra civil y edificación. La obra civil destinada al sector industrial debe ser ejecutada con la mayor precisión posible, pues requiere la instalación de complejos equipos y sistemas productivos que pueden producir esfuerzos dinámicos que muchas veces no se consideran en el diseño de los cimientos que lo soportan, razón por la cual interviene la gestión de riesgos para conocer y reducir los posibles riesgos de fallos que se puedan generar y así intentar aproximarse cada vez más al desarrollo de diseños eficientes y confiables, afianzando la exactitud y minimizando errores en la producción y elaboración de piezas, sistemas y equipos de las distintas áreas productivas de la industria. El presente trabajo de investigación se centra en el estudio de los riesgos técnicos existentes en el diseño y ejecución de cimentaciones para maquinarias, mediante la aplicación de varios métodos de investigación, a fin de intentar cubrir los aspectos más importantes que puedan incurrir en una posible causa de fallo de la estructura, evaluando el acoplamiento entre el sistema máquina-cimiento-suelo. Risk is defined, by the Technical Building Code (Código Técnico de la Edificación, CTE) as a measure of the scope of the hazard of an undesired event for people, expressed in terms of probability related to the consequences of an event, also is expressed as a Basic Requirement Strength and Stability these will be appropriate to not cause undue risk maintaining strength and stability against predictable actions and influences during construction and expected uses of the buildings. Nowadays, Risk Management is an important process in modern society, becoming ever more demanding about the results and quality of products and services, and also complies with the legal responsibility that brings the conception, design and construction of large projects as are civil engineering and construction projects. Civil work as a part of industry must be performed as accurately as possible, requiring the installation of sophisticated equipment and production systems which can produce dynamic forces that often are not considered in the design of the foundations, this is the reason why risk management is involved to understand and reduce the risks of failures that may arise and try to move closer to the development of efficient and reliable designs, strengthening the accuracy and minimizing errors in the production and processing of parts, systems and equipments from different production areas of the industry. This paper is a study of existing technical risks in the design and execution of foundations for machinery, through the application of various research methods, in order to try to cover the most important aspects that may produce the failure of the structure, evaluating the union between the machine-foundation system and soil.

Safety and health in forest harvesting operations. Diagnosis and preventive actions. A review

Aim of study: to review the present state of the art in relation to the main labour risks and the most relevant results of recent studies evaluating the safety and health conditions of the forest harvesting work and better ways to reduce accidents. Area of study: It focuses mainly on developed Countries, where the general concern about work risks prevention, together with the complex idiosyncrasy of forest work in forest harvesting operations, has led to a growing interest from the forest scientific and technical community. Material and Methods: The main bibliographic and Internet references have been identified using common reference analysis tools. Their conclusions and recommendations have been comprehensively summarized. Main results: Collection of the principal references and their most important conclusions relating to the main accident risk factors, their causes and consequences, the means used towards their prevention, both instrumental as well as in the aspects of training and business management, besides the influence of the growing mechanization of logging operations on those risks. Research highlights: Accident risk is higher in forest harvesting than in most other work sectors, and the main risk factors such as experience, age, seasonality, training, protective equipment, mechanization degree, etc. have been identified and studied. The paper summarizes some relevant results, one of the principal being that the proper entrepreneurial risk management is a key factor leading to the success in minimizing labour risks..

A Semantic-Based Approach to Attain Reproducibility of Computational Environments in Scientic Work ows: A Case Study

Reproducible research in scientic work ows is often addressed by tracking the provenance of the produced results. While this approach allows inspecting intermediate and nal results, improves understanding, and permits replaying a work ow execution, it does not ensure that the computational environment is available for subsequent executions to reproduce the experiment. In this work, we propose describing the resources involved in the execution of an experiment using a set of semantic vocabularies, so as to conserve the computational environment. We dene a process for documenting the work ow application, management system, and their dependencies based on 4 domain ontologies. We then conduct an experimental evaluation sing a real work ow application on an academic and a public Cloud platform. Results show that our approach can reproduce an equivalent execution environment of a predened virtual machine image on both computing platforms.

Modeling of dangerous phenomena and innovative techniques for hazard evaluation and risk mitigation

Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.