Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

River Sediment Sampling and Environment Quality Standards: A Case Study of the Ravensbourne River

Sediment is a major sink for heavy metals in river, and poses significant risks not only to river quality but also to aquatic and benthic organisms. At present in the UK, there are no mandatory sediment quality standards. This is partly due to insufficient toxicity data but also due to problems with identification of appropriate sediment monitoring and analytical techniques. The aim of this research was to examine the sampling different river sediment compartments in order to monitor compliance with any future UK sediment environmental quality standards (EQS). The significance of sediment physical and chemical characteristics on sampling and analysis was also determined. The Ravensbourne River, a tributary of the River Thames located in the highly urbanised South Eastern area of London was used for this study. Sediment was collected from the bed using the Van Veer grab, the bank using hand trowel, and from the water column (suspended sediment) using the time integrated suspended tube sampler between the period of July 2010 and December, 2011. The result for the total metal extraction carried out using aqua regia found that there were no significant differences in the metal concentrations retained in the different compartments by the <63μm sediment fraction but there were differences between the 63μm-2mm fractions of the bed and bank. The metal concentration in the bed, bank and suspended sediment exceeded the draft UK sediment quality guidelines. Sequential extraction was also carried out to determine metal speciation in each sediment compartment using the Maiz et al. (1997) and Tessier et al. (1979) methods. The Maiz et al. (1997) found over 80% of the metals in each sediment compartment were not bioavailable, while Tessier et al. (1979) method found most of the metals to be associated with the Fe/Mn and the residual phase. The bed sediment compartment and the <2mm (<63μm + 63μm-2mm) fraction appears to be the most suitable sediment sample for sediment monitoring from this study.

A framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps

There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.

Embracing difference and the deferral of self-government: a critical analysis of the framing and practice of contemporary peace building

This thesis analyses how dominant policy approaches to peacebuilding have moved away from a single and universalised understanding of peace to be achieved through a top-down strategy of democratisation and economic liberalisation, prevalent at the beginning of 1990s. Instead, throughout the 2000s, peacebuilders have increasingly adopted a commitment to cultivating a bottom-up and hybrid peace building process that is context-sensitive and intended to be more respectful of the needs and values of post-war societies. The projects of statebuilding in Kosovo and, to a lesser extent, in Bosnia are examined to illustrate the shift. By capturing this shift, I seek to argue that contemporary practitioners of peace are sharing the sensibility of the theoretical critics of liberalism. These critics have long contended that post-war societies cannot be governed from ‘above’ and have advocated the adoption of a bottom-up approach to peacebuilding. Now, both peace practitioners and their critics share the tendency to embrace difference in peacebuilding operations, but this shift has failed to address meaningfully the problems and concerns of post-conflict societies. The conclusion of this research is that, drawing on the assumption that these societies are not capable of undertaking sovereign acts because of their problematic inter-subjective frames, the discourses of peacebuilding (in policy-making and academic critique) have increasingly legitimised an open-ended role of interference by external agencies, which now operate from ‘below’. Peacebuilding has turned into a long-term process, in which international and local actors engage relationally in the search for ever-more emancipatory hybrid outcomes, but in which self-government and self-determination are constantly deferred. Processes of emphasising difference have thus denied the political autonomy of post-war societies and have continuously questioned the political and human equality of these populations in a hierarchically divided world.

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR approach

A growing literature considers the impact of uncertainty using SVAR models that include proxies for uncertainty shocks as endogenous variables. In this paper we consider the impact of measurement error in these proxies on the estimated impulse responses. We show via a Monte-Carlo experiment that measurement error can result in attenuation bias in impulse responses. In contrast, the proxy SVAR that uses the uncertainty shock proxy as an instrument does not su¤er from this bias. Applying this latter method to the Bloom (2009) data-set results in impulse responses to uncertainty shocks that are larger in magnitude and more persistent than those obtained from a recursive SVAR.

Strategic tensions within the smartphones industry: the case of BlackBerry

This paper reviews some aspects of corporate strategy in a well-known smart phone provider. Two approaches to strategy are analysed: one concerning the industry and the other related to the organization. A general introduction on the smart phones industry is given followed by specific background on BlackBerry. Two perspectives are explored: the first talks about the paradox of compliance and choice within the industry and the second discusses the paradox of control and chaos in BlackBerry. The paper concludes with a brief overview on the company performance from 2006 to 2012 leading to some recommendations.

A multi-agent-based evolution model of innovation networks in dynamic environments

An innovation network can be considered as a complex adaptive system with evolution affected by dynamic environments. This paper establishes a multi-agent-based evolution model of innovation networks under dynamic settings through computational and logical modeling, and a multi-agent system paradigm. This evolution model is composed of several sub-models of agents' knowledge production by independent innovations in dynamic situations, knowledge learning by cooperative innovations covering agents' heterogeneities, decision-making for innovation selections, and knowledge update considering decay factors. On the basis of above-mentioned sub-models, an evolution rule for multi-agent based innovation network system is given. The proposed evolution model can be utilized to simulate and analyze different scenarios of innovation networks in various dynamic environments and support decision-making for innovation network optimization.

Home bias persistence in foreign direct investments

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the issues related to home bias and foreign direct investments (FDIs). We study the role of physical, cultural, and institutional distances from home on FDI decisions taken by corporations to assess whether the globalization of the past two decades has reduced their influence. Using the ‘home bias’ framework from the finance literature and the gravity model from the economics literature, we utilize a large sample of both developed and emerging markets, using FDI flows of 6263 unique bilateral country pairs over a 30-year period. We find strong empirical evidence of persistent home bias in FDI outflows, and we show that not only physical distance but also cultural and institutional similarities between host and source countries remain a decisive factor in foreign corporate investment decisions. We also show that such home bias is persistent over time and is observed around the world.

Ulster PD Scheme: Using e-portfolios and professional conversations to evidence recognition claims

Vicky Davies and Sarah Maguire are Professional Development Managers at the University of Ulster. They have many years of experience in delivering and assessing Higher Education Academy claims for recognition via accredited provision for new teaching staff and post-graduate students. More recently they led the development of the University of Ulster’s Professional Development Scheme http://www.ulster.ac.uk/centrehep/pds/ . The core elements of the PD Scheme are the production of an e-portfolio and an assessed professional conversation. This workshop will explore the learning they have acquired through developing this process and piloting it with applicants. You will have the opportunity to discuss this and to identify any transferability to your own practice.

Does Daily Sunshine make you Happy? Subjective Measures of Well-being and the Weather

This paper examines to what extent individual measures of well-being are correlated with daily weather patterns in the United Kingdom. Merging daily weather data with data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) allows us to test whether measures of well-being are correlated with temperature, sunshine, rainfall and wind speed. We are able to make a strong case for causality due to ‘randomness’ of weather in addition to using regression methods that eliminate time-invariant individual level heterogeneity. Results suggest that some weather parameters (such as sunshine) are correlated with some measures of well-being (job satisfaction); however, in general the effect of weather on subjective measures of well-being is very small.

Cross-Industry Product Diversification and Contagion in Risk and Return: The Case of Bank-Insurance and Insurance-Bank Takeovers

We investigate the impact of domestic/international bancassurance deals on the risk-return profiles of announcing and non-announcing banks and insurers within a GARCH model. Bank-insurance deals produce intra- and inter-industry contagion in both risk and return, with larger deals producing greater contagion. Bidder banks and peers experience positive abnormal returns, with the effects on insurer peers being stronger than those on bank peers. Insurance-bank deals produce insignificant excess returns for bidder and peer insurers and positive valuations for peer banks. Following the deal, the bank bidders’ idiosyncratic (systematic) risk falls (increases), while insurance bidders exhibit a lower systematic risk and maintain their idiosyncratic risk.

Diversification, size and risk: The case of bank acquisitions of nonbank financial firms

We investigate the risk effects of bank acquisitions of insurance companies and securities firms between 1991 and 2012 using a newly constructed dataset of M&A deals. We examine risk changes before and after deal announcements by decomposing risk into systematic and idiosyncratic components. Subsequently, we investigate the relationship between risk and diversification by modelling the determinants of risks. We find that bank combinations with securities firms yield higher risks than combinations with insurance companies. Bank size is an important and consistent determinant of risk whereas diversification is not. Our results inform the continuing debate on diversification versus functional separation of bank activities.