A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C.

The role of information on farmers' willingness to use recycled water for irrigation

In this paper are identified several factors which affect a potential user's willingness to use recycled water for agricultural irrigation. This study is based on the results of a survey carried out among farmers in the island of Crete, Greece. It was found that a higher level of income and education are positively correlated with a respondent's willingness to use recycled water. Income and education are also positively correlated with a potential user's sensitivity to information on the advantages of using non-conventional water resources. Overall, extra information on the advantages of recycled water has a statistically significant impact on reported degrees of willingness to use recycled water.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 degrees C above present (approximately 2.7 degrees C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (< 500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 degrees C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 degrees C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Efficiency of evolutionary algorithms in water network pipe sizing

The pipe sizing of water networks via evolutionary algorithms is of great interest because it allows the selection of alternative economical solutions that meet a set of design requirements. However, available evolutionary methods are numerous, and methodologies to compare the performance of these methods beyond obtaining a minimal solution for a given problem are currently lacking. A methodology to compare algorithms based on an efficiency rate (E) is presented here and applied to the pipe-sizing problem of four medium-sized benchmark networks (Hanoi, New York Tunnel, GoYang and R-9 Joao Pessoa). E numerically determines the performance of a given algorithm while also considering the quality of the obtained solution and the required computational effort. From the wide range of available evolutionary algorithms, four algorithms were selected to implement the methodology: a PseudoGenetic Algorithm (PGA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a Harmony Search and a modified Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm (SFLA). After more than 500,000 simulations, a statistical analysis was performed based on the specific parameters each algorithm requires to operate, and finally, E was analyzed for each network and algorithm. The efficiency measure indicated that PGA is the most efficient algorithm for problems of greater complexity and that HS is the most efficient algorithm for less complex problems. However, the main contribution of this work is that the proposed efficiency ratio provides a neutral strategy to compare optimization algorithms and may be useful in the future to select the most appropriate algorithm for different types of optimization problems.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

The risk of water stress

Water resources are under stress in many regions due to increasing demands and, in places, falling quality. Climate change has the potential to change the risks of water stress.1 The focus in this section is on strategic definitions of water stress, which are based on generalized indicators of the amount of water that is available and the demands on that resource. Operational definitions, on the other hand, are typically based on the reliability of the supply of appropriate quality water and are strongly determined by local conditions.

Aeromonas detection and their toxins from drinking water from reservoirs and drinking fountains

Aeromonads are inhabitants of aquatic ecosystems and are described as being involved in intestinal disturbances and other infections. A total of 200 drinking water samples from domestic and public reservoirs and drinking fountains located in Sao Paulo (Brazil), were analyzed for the presence of Aeromonas. Samples were concentrated by membrane filtration and enriched in APW. ADA medium was used for Aeromonas isolation and colonies were confirmed by biochemical characterization. Strains isolated were tested for hemolysin and toxin production. Aeromonas was detected in 12 samples (6.0%). Aeromonas strains (96) were isolated and identified as: A. caviae (41.7%), A. hydrophila (15.7%), A. allosacharophila (10.4%), A. schubertii (1.0%) and Aeromonas spp. (31.2%). The results revealed that 70% of A. caviare, 66.7% of A. hydrophila, 80% of A. allosacharophila and 46.6% of Aeromonas spp. were hemolytic. The assay for checking production of toxins showed that 17.5% of A. caviae, 73.3% of A. hydrophila, 60% of A. allosacharophila, 100% of A. schubertii, and 33.3% of Aeromonas spp. were able to produce toxins. The results demonstrated the pathogenic potential of Aeromonas, indicating that the presence of this emerging pathogen in water systems is a public health concern.

Detection of assemblages A and B of Giardia duodenalis in water and sewage from Sao Paulo state, Brazil

Giardia duodenalis is a protozoan that parasitizes humans and other mammals and causes giardiasis. Although its isolates have been divided into seven assemblages, named A to G, only A and B have been detected in human faeces. Assemblage A isolates are commonly divided into two genotypes, AI and AII. Even though information about the presence of this protozoan in water and sewage is available in Brazil, it is important to verify the distribution of different assemblages that might be present, which can only be done by genotyping techniques. A total of 24 raw and treated sewage, surface and spring water samples were collected, concentrated and purified. DNA was extracted, and a nested PCR was used to amplify an 890 bp fragment of the gdh gene of G. duodenalis, which codes for glutamate dehydrogenase. Positive samples were cloned and sequenced. Ten out of 24 (41.6%) samples were confirmed to be positive for G. duodenalis by sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis grouped most sequences with G. duodenalis genotype AII from GenBank. Only two raw sewage samples presented sequences assigned to assemblage B. In one of these samples genotype AII was also detected. As these assemblages/genotypes are commonly associated to human giardiasis, the contact with these matrices represents risk for public health.

The energy and water balance of a Eucalyptus plantation in southeast Brazil

The eddy covariance method was used to measure energy and water balance of a plantation of Eucalyptus (grandis x urophylla) hybrids over a 2 year period. The average daily evaporation rates were 5.4 (+/- 2.0) mm day(-1) in summer, but fell to 1.2 (+/- 0.3) mm day(-1) in winter. In contrast, the sensible heat flux was relatively low in summer but dominated the energy balance in winter. Evaporation accounted for 80% and 26% of the available energy, in summer and winter respectively. The annual evaporation was 82% (1124 mm) and 96% (1235 mm) of the annual rainfall recorded during the first and second year, respectively. Daily average canopy and aerodynamic conductance to water vapour were in the summer 51.9 (+/- 38.4) mm s(-1) 84.1 (+/- 25.6) mm s(-1), respectively; and in the winter 6.0 (+/- 10.5) mm s(-1) and 111.6 (+/- 24.6) mm s(-1), respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismic activity triggered by water wells in the Parana Basin, Brazil

Triggered seismicity is commonly associated with deep water reservoirs or injection wells where water is injected at high pressure into the reservoir rock. However, earth tremors related solely to the opening of groundwater wells are extremely rare. Here we present a clear case of seismicity induced by pore-pressure changes following the drilling of water wells that exploit a confined aquifer in the intracratonic Parana Basin of southeastern Brazil. Since 2004, shallow seismic activity, with magnitudes up to 2.9 and intensities V MM, has been observed near deep wells (120-200 m) that were drilled in early 2003 near the town of Bebedouro. The wells were drilled for irrigation purposes, cross a sandstone layer about 60-80 m thick and extract water from a confined aquifer in fractured zones between basalt flow layers. Seismic activity, mainly event swarms, has occurred yearly since 2004, mostly during the rainy season when the wells are not pumped. During the dry season when the wells are pumped almost continuously, the activity is very low. A seismographic network, installed in March 2005, has located more than 2000 microearthquakes. The events are less than 1 km deep (mostly within the 0.5 km thick basalt layer) and cover an area roughly 1.5 km x 5 km across. The seismicity generally starts in a small area and expands to larger distances with an equivalent hydraulic diffusivity ranging from 0.06 to 0.6 m(2)/s. Geophysical and geothermal logging of several wells in the area showed that water from the shallow sandstone aquifer enters the well at the top and usually forms waterfalls. The waterfalls flow down the sides of the wells and feed the confined, fractured aquifer in the basalt layer at the bottom. Two seismic areas are observed: the main area surrounds several wells that are pumped continuously during the dry season, and a second area near another well (about 10 km from the first area) that is not used for irrigation and not pumped regularly. The main area displays cyclic annual activity, but the second area does not. We explain the earthquake swarms as being triggered by pore pressure diffusion in the fractured basalt layer due to additional pressure from the newly connected surface aquifer. This reaches critically prestressed areas up to a few kilometers away from the wells. During periods of continuous pumping, the reduction of pore pressure in the confined aquifer stops the seismic activity. Our study suggests that this kind of activity may be more common than previously thought and implies that many other cases of small tremors associated with the drilling of water wells may have gone unnoticed.

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.

On Real-Time Monitoring And Control For Efficient Management Of Drinking Water Networks: Barcelona Case Study

Drinking water utilities in urban areas are focused on finding smart solutions facing new challenges in their real-time operation because of limited water resources, intensive energy requirements, a growing population, a costly and ageing infrastructure, increasingly stringent regulations, and increased attention towards the environmental impact of water use. Such challenges force water managers to monitor and control not only water supply and distribution, but also consumer demand. This paper presents and discusses novel methodologies and procedures towards an integrated water resource management system based on advanced ICT technologies of automation and telecommunications for largely improving the efficiency of drinking water networks (DWN) in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. In particular, the paper addresses the first results of the European project EFFINET (FP7-ICT2011-8-318556) devoted to the monitoring and control of the DWN in Barcelona (Spain). Results are split in two levels according to different management objectives: (i) the monitoring level is concerned with all the aspects involved in the observation of the current state of a system and the detection/diagnosis of abnormal situations. It is achieved through sensors and communications technology, together with mathematical models; (ii) the control level is concerned with computing the best suitable and admissible control strategies for network actuators as to optimize a given set of operational goals related to the performance of the overall system. This level covers the network control (optimal management of water and energy) and the demand management (smart metering, efficient supply). The consideration of the Barcelona DWN as the case study will allow to prove the general applicability of the proposed integrated ICT solutions and their effectiveness in the management of DWN, with considerable savings of electricity costs and reduced water loss while ensuring the high European standards of water quality to citizens.

From Smart Meters To Smart Decisions: Web-Based Support For The Water Efficient Household

Smart water metering technologies for residential buildings offer, in principle, great opportunities for sustainable urban water management. However, much of this potential is as yet unrealized. Despite that several ICT solutions have already been deployed aiming at optimum operations on the water utilities side (e.g. real time control for water networks, dynamic pump scheduling etc.), little work has been done to date on the consumer side. This paper presents a web-based platform targeting primarily the household end user. The platform enables consumers to monitor, on a real-time basis, the water demand of their household, providing feedback not only on the total water consumption and relevant costs but also on the efficiency (or otherwise) of specific indoor and outdoor uses. Targeting the reduction of consumption, the provided feedback is combined with notifications about possible leakages\bursts, and customised suggestions to improve the efficiency of existing household uses. It also enables various comparisons, with past consumption or even with that of similar households, aiming to motivate further the householder to become an active player in the water efficiency challenge. The issue of enhancing the platform’s functionality with energy timeseries is also discussed in view of recent advances in smart metering and the concept of “smart cities”. The paper presents a prototype of this web-based application and critically discusses first testing results and insights. It also presents the way in which the platform communicates with central databases, at the water utility level. It is suggested that such developments are closing the gap between technology availability and usefulness to end users and could help both the uptake of smart metering and awareness raising leading, potentially, to significant reductions of urban water consumption. The work has received funding from the European Union FP7 Programme through the iWIDGET Project, under grant agreement no318272.

Comparison Of Demand Pattern Calibration In Water Distribution Networks With Geographic And Non-Geographic Parameterization

Demands are one of the most uncertain parameters in a water distribution network model. A good calibration of the model demands leads to better solutions when using the model for any purpose. A demand pattern calibration methodology that uses a priori information has been developed for calibrating the behaviour of demand groups. Generally, the behaviours of demands in cities are mixed all over the network, contrary to smaller villages where demands are clearly sectorised in residential neighbourhoods, commercial zones and industrial sectors. Demand pattern calibration has a final use for leakage detection and isolation. Detecting a leakage in a pattern that covers nodes spread all over the network makes the isolation unfeasible. Besides, demands in the same zone may be more similar due to the common pressure of the area rather than for the type of contract. For this reason, the demand pattern calibration methodology is applied to a real network with synthetic non-geographic demands for calibrating geographic demand patterns. The results are compared with a previous work where the calibrated patterns were also non-geographic.