Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of fat deposition models in beef steers using acslXtreme.

The Davis Growth Model (a dynamic steer growth model encompassing 4 fat deposition models) is currently being used by the phenotypic prediction program of the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Beef Genetic Technologies to predict P8 fat (mm) in beef cattle to assist beef producers meet market specifications. The concepts of cellular hyperplasia and hypertrophy are integral components of the Davis Growth Model. The net synthesis of total body fat (kg) is calculated from the net energy available after accounting tor energy needs for maintenance and protein synthesis. Total body fat (kg) is then partitioned into 4 fat depots (intermuscular, intramuscular, subcutaneous, and visceral). This paper reports on the parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of the DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) logistic growth equations and the fat deposition first-order differential equations in the Davis Growth Model using acslXtreme (Hunstville, AL, USA, Xcellon). The DNA and fat deposition parameter coefficients were found to be important determinants of model function; the DNA parameter coefficients with days on feed >100 days and the fat deposition parameter coefficients for all days on feed. The generalized NL2SOL optimization algorithm had the fastest processing time and the minimum number of objective function evaluations when estimating the 4 fat deposition parameter coefficients with 2 observed values (initial and final fat). The subcutaneous fat parameter coefficient did indicate a metabolic difference for frame sizes. The results look promising and the prototype Davis Growth Model has the potential to assist the beef industry meet market specifications.

Comprehensive Path-sensitive Data-flow Analysis

Data-flow analysis is an integral part of any aggressive optimizing compiler. We propose a framework for improving the precision of data-flow analysis in the presence of complex control-flow. W initially perform data-flow analysis to determine those control-flow merges which cause the loss in data-flow analysis precision. The control-flow graph of the program is then restructured such that performing data-flow analysis on the resulting restructured graph gives more precise results. The proposed framework is both simple, involving the familiar notion of product automata, and also general, since it is applicable to any forward data-flow analysis. Apart from proving that our restructuring process is correct, we also show that restructuring is effective in that it necessarily leads to more optimization opportunities. Furthermore, the framework handles the trade-off between the increase in data-flow precision and the code size increase inherent in the restructuring. We show that determining an optimal restructuring is NP-hard, and propose and evaluate a greedy strategy. The framework has been implemented in the Scale research compiler, and instantiated for the specific problem of Constant Propagation. On the SPECINT 2000 benchmark suite we observe an average speedup of 4% in the running times over Wegman-Zadeck conditional constant propagation algorithm and 2% over a purely path profile guided approach.

High-resolution melt-curve analysis of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD-HRM) for the characterisation of pathogenic leptospires: intra-serovar divergence, interserovar convergence, and evidence of attenuation in Leptospira reference collections.

High-resolution melt-curve analysis of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD-HRM) is a novel technology that has emerged as a possible method to characterise leptospires to serovar level. RAPD-HRM has recently been used to measure intra-serovar convergence between strains of the same serovar as well as inter-serovar divergence between strains of different serovars. The results indicate that intra-serovar heterogeneity and inter-serovar homogeneity may limit the application of RAPD-HRM in routine diagnostics. They also indicate that genetic attenuation of aged, high-passage-number isolates could undermine the use of RAPD-HRM or any other molecular technology. Such genetic attenuation may account for a general decrease seen in titres of rabbit hyperimmune antibodies over time. Before RAPD-HRM can be further advanced as a routine diagnostic tool, strains more representative of the wild-type serovars of a given region need to be identified. Further, RAPD-HRM analysis of reference strains indicates that the routine renewal of reference collections, with new isolates, may be needed to maintain the genetic integrity of the collections.

Wet-dry cycling extends seed persistence by re-instating antioxidant capacity

Seeds in the field experience wet-dry cycling that is akin to the well-studied commercial process of seed priming in which seeds are hydrated and then re-dried to standardise their germination characteristics. To investigate whether the persistence (defined as in situ longevity) and antioxidant capacity of seeds are influenced by wet-dry cycling, seeds of the global agronomic weed Avena sterilis ssp. ludoviciana were subjected to (1) controlled ageing at 60% relative humidity and 53.5°C for 31 days, (2) controlled ageing then priming, or (3) ageing in the field in three soils for 21 months. Changes in seed viability (total germination), mean germination time, seedling vigour (mean seedling length), and the concentrations of the glutathione (GSH) / glutathione disulphide (GSSG) redox couple were recorded over time. As controlled-aged seeds lost viability, GSH levels declined and the relative proportion of GSSG contributing to total glutathione increased, indicative of a failing antioxidant capacity. Subjecting seeds that were aged under controlled conditions to a wet-dry cycle (to −1 MPa) prevented viability loss and increased GSH levels. Field-aged seeds that underwent numerous wet-dry cycles due to natural rainfall maintained high viability and high GSH levels. Thus wet-dry cycles in the field may enhance seed longevity and persistence coincident with re-synthesis of protective compounds such as GSH.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies five new susceptibility loci for cutaneous malignant melanoma

Thirteen common susceptibility loci have been reproducibly associated with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). We report the results of an international 2-stage meta-analysis of CMM genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This meta-analysis combines 11 GWAS (5 previously unpublished) and a further three stage 2 data sets, totaling 15,990 CMM cases and 26,409 controls. Five loci not previously associated with CMM risk reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8), as did 2 previously reported but unreplicated loci and all 13 established loci. Newly associated SNPs fall within putative melanocyte regulatory elements, and bioinformatic and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data highlight candidate genes in the associated regions, including one involved in telomere biology.

Genetic analysis for a shared biological basis between migraine and coronary artery disease

Objective: To apply genetic analysis of genome-wide association data to study the extent and nature of a shared biological basis between migraine and coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods: Four separate methods for cross-phenotype genetic analysis were applied on data from 2 large-scale genome-wide association studies of migraine (19,981 cases, 56,667 controls) and CAD (21,076 cases, 63,014 controls). The first 2 methods quantified the extent of overlapping risk variants and assessed the load of CAD risk loci in migraineurs. Genomic regions of shared risk were then identified by analysis of covariance patterns between the 2 phenotypes and by querying known genome-wide significant loci. Results: We found a significant overlap of genetic risk loci for migraine and CAD. When stratified by migraine subtype, this was limited to migraine without aura, and the overlap was protective in that patients with migraine had a lower load of CAD risk alleles than controls. Genes indicated by 16 shared risk loci point to mechanisms with potential roles in migraine pathogenesis and CAD, including endothelial dysfunction (PHACTR1) and insulin homeostasis (GIP). Conclusions: The results suggest that shared biological processes contribute to risk of migraine and CAD, but surprisingly this commonality is restricted to migraine without aura and the impact is in opposite directions. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these processes and their opposite relationship to migraine and CAD may improve our understanding of both disorders.

Genome-wide enrichment analysis between endometriosis and obesity-related traits reveals novel susceptibility loci

Endometriosis is a chronic inflammatory condition in women that results in pelvic pain and subfertility, and has been associated with decreased body mass index (BMI). Genetic variants contributing to the heritable component have started to emerge from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), although the majority remain unknown. Unexpectedly, we observed an intergenic locus on 7p15.2 that was genome-wide significantly associated with both endometriosis and fat distribution (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI; WHRadjBMI) in an independent meta-GWAS of European ancestry individuals. This led us to investigate the potential overlap in genetic variants underlying the aetiology of endometriosis, WHRadjBMI and BMI using GWAS data. Our analyses demonstrated significant enrichment of common variants between fat distribution and endometriosis (P = 3.7 x 10(-3)), which was stronger when we restricted the investigation to more severe (Stage B) cases (P = 4.5 x 10(-4)). However, no genetic enrichment was observed between endometriosis and BMI (P = 0.79). In addition to 7p15.2, we identify four more variants with statistically significant evidence of involvement in both endometriosis and WHRadjBMI (in/near KIFAP3, CAB39L, WNT4, GRB14); two of these, KIFAP3 and CAB39L, are novel associations for both traits. KIFAP3, WNT4 and 7p15.2 are associated with the WNT signalling pathway; formal pathway analysis confirmed a statistically significant (P = 6.41 x 10(-4)) overrepresentation of shared associations in developmental processes/WNT signalling between the two traits. Our results demonstrate an example of potential biological pleiotropy that was hitherto unknown, and represent an opportunity for functional follow-up of loci and further cross-phenotype comparisons to assess how fat distribution and endometriosis pathogenesis research fields can inform each other.

Shared genetic basis for migraine and ischemic stroke: A genome-wide analysis of common variants

OBJECTIVE To quantify genetic overlap between migraine and ischemic stroke (IS) with respect to common genetic variation. METHODS We applied 4 different approaches to large-scale meta-analyses of genome-wide data on migraine (23,285 cases and 95,425 controls) and IS (12,389 cases and 62,004 controls). First, we queried known genome-wide significant loci for both disorders, looking for potential overlap of signals. We then analyzed the overall shared genetic load using polygenic scores and estimated the genetic correlation between disease subtypes using data derived from these models. We further interrogated genomic regions of shared risk using analysis of covariance patterns between the 2 phenotypes using cross-phenotype spatial mapping. RESULTS We found substantial genetic overlap between migraine and IS using all 4 approaches. Migraine without aura (MO) showed much stronger overlap with IS and its subtypes than migraine with aura (MA). The strongest overlap existed between MO and large artery stroke (LAS; p = 6.4 x 10(-28) for the LAS polygenic score in MO) and between MO and cardioembolic stroke (CE; p = 2.7 x 10(-20) for the CE score in MO). CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate shared genetic susceptibility to migraine and IS, with a particularly strong overlap between MO and both LAS and CE pointing towards shared mechanisms. Our observations on MA are consistent with a limited role of common genetic variants in this subtype.

Meta-analysis of 375,000 individuals identifies 38 susceptibility loci for migraine

Migraine is a debilitating neurological disorder affecting around 1 in 7 people worldwide, but its molecular mechanisms remain poorly understood. Some debate exists over whether migraine is a disease of vascular dysfunction, or a result of neuronal dysfunction with secondary vascular changes. Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have thus far identified 13 independent loci associated with migraine. To identify new susceptibility loci, we performed the largest genetic study of migraine to date, comprising 59,674 cases and 316,078 controls from 22 GWA studies. We identified 45 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) significantly associated with migraine risk (P < 5 x 10-8) that map to 38 distinct genomic loci, including 28 loci not previously reported and the first locus identified on chromosome X. Furthermore, a subset analysis for migraine without aura (MO) identified seven of the same loci as from the full sample, whereas no loci reached genome-wide significance in the migraine with aura (MA) subset. In subsequent computational analyzes, the identified loci showed enrichment for genes expressed in vascular and smooth muscle tissues, consistent with a predominant theory of migraine that highlights vascular etiologies.

A mega-analysis of genome-wide association studies for major depressive disorder

Prior genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of major depressive disorder (MDD) have met with limited success. We sought to increase statistical power to detect disease loci by conducting a GWAS mega-analysis for MDD. In the MDD discovery phase, we analyzed more than 1.2 million autosomal and X chromosome single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 18 759 independent and unrelated subjects of recent European ancestry (9240 MDD cases and 9519 controls). In the MDD replication phase, we evaluated 554 SNPs in independent samples (6783 MDD cases and 50 695 controls). We also conducted a cross-disorder meta-analysis using 819 autosomal SNPs with P<0.0001 for either MDD or the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium bipolar disorder (BIP) mega-analysis (9238 MDD cases/8039 controls and 6998 BIP cases/7775 controls). No SNPs achieved genome-wide significance in the MDD discovery phase, the MDD replication phase or in pre-planned secondary analyses (by sex, recurrent MDD, recurrent early-onset MDD, age of onset, pre-pubertal onset MDD or typical-like MDD from a latent class analyses of the MDD criteria). In the MDD-bipolar cross-disorder analysis, 15 SNPs exceeded genome-wide significance (P<5 x 10(-8)), and all were in a 248 kb interval of high LD on 3p21.1 (chr3:52 425 083-53 822 102, minimum P=5.9 x 10(-9) at rs2535629). Although this is the largest genome-wide analysis of MDD yet conducted, its high prevalence means that the sample is still underpowered to detect genetic effects typical for complex traits. Therefore, we were unable to identify robust and replicable findings. We discuss what this means for genetic research for MDD. The 3p21.1 MDD-BIP finding should be interpreted with caution as the most significant SNP did not replicate in MDD samples, and genotyping in independent samples will be needed to resolve its status.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new susceptibility loci for migraine

Migraine is the most common brain disorder, affecting approximately 14% of the adult population, but its molecular mechanisms are poorly understood. We report the results of a meta-analysis across 29 genome-wide association studies, including a total of 23,285 individuals with migraine (cases) and 95,425 population-matched controls. We identified 12 loci associated with migraine susceptibility (P<5x10(-8)). Five loci are new: near AJAP1 at 1p36, near TSPAN2 at 1p13, within FHL5 at 6q16, within C7orf10 at 7p14 and near MMP16 at 8q21. Three of these loci were identified in disease subgroup analyses. Brain tissue expression quantitative trait locus analysis suggests potential functional candidate genes at four loci: APOA1BP, TBC1D7, FUT9, STAT6 and ATP5B.

Genome-wide association study of major depressive disorder: New results, meta-analysis, and lessons learned

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common complex disorder with a partly genetic etiology. We conducted a genome-wide association study of the MDD2000+ sample (2431 cases, 3673 screened controls and >1 M imputed single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)). No SNPs achieved genome-wide significance either in the MDD2000+ study, or in meta-analysis with two other studies totaling 5763 cases and 6901 controls. These results imply that common variants of intermediate or large effect do not have main effects in the genetic architecture of MDD. Suggestive but notable results were: (a) gene-based tests suggesting roles for adenylate cyclase 3 (ADCY3, 2p23.3) and galanin (GAL, 11q13.3); published functional evidence relates both of these to MDD and serotonergic signaling; (b) support for the bipolar disorder risk variant SNP rs1006737 in CACNA1C (P=0.020, odds ratio=1.10), and; (c) lack of support for rs2251219, a SNP identified in a meta-analysis of affective disorder studies (P=0.51). We estimate that sample sizes 1.8- to 2.4-fold greater are needed for association studies of MDD compared with those for schizophrenia to detect variants that explain the same proportion of total variance in liability. Larger study cohorts characterized for genetic and environmental risk factors accumulated prospectively are likely to be needed to dissect more fully the etiology of MDD.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis identifies new endometriosis risk loci

We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 4,604 endometriosis cases and 9,393 controls of Japanese and European ancestry. We show that rs12700667 on chromosome 7p15.2, previously found to associate with disease in Europeans, replicates in Japanese (P = 3.6 x 10(-3)), and we confirm association of rs7521902 at 1p36.12 near WNT4. In addition, we establish an association of rs13394619 in GREB1 at 2p25.1 with endometriosis and identify a newly associated locus at 12q22 near VEZT (rs10859871). Excluding cases of European ancestry of minimal or unknown severity, we identified additional previously unknown loci at 2p14 (rs4141819), 6p22.3 (rs7739264) and 9p21.3 (rs1537377). All seven SNP effects were replicated in an independent cohort and associated at P <5 x 10(-8) in a combined analysis. Finally, we found a significant overlap in polygenic risk for endometriosis between the genome-wide association cohorts of European and Japanese descent (P = 8.8 x 10(-11)), indicating that many weakly associated SNPs represent true endometriosis risk loci and that risk prediction and future targeted disease therapy may be transferred across these populations.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies susceptibility loci for migraine without aura

Migraine without aura is the most common form of migraine, characterized by recurrent disabling headache and associated autonomic symptoms. To identify common genetic variants associated with this migraine type, we analyzed genome-wide association data of 2,326 clinic-based German and Dutch individuals with migraine without aura and 4,580 population-matched controls. We selected SNPs from 12 loci with 2 or more SNPs associated with P values of <1 x 10(-5) for replication testing in 2,508 individuals with migraine without aura and 2,652 controls. SNPs at two of these loci showed convincing replication: at 1q22 (in MEF2D; replication P = 4.9 x 10(-4); combined P = 7.06 x 10(-11)) and at 3p24 (near TGFBR2; replication P = 1.0 x 10(-4); combined P = 1.17 x 10(-9)). In addition, SNPs at the PHACTR1 and ASTN2 loci showed suggestive evidence of replication (P = 0.01; combined P = 3.20 x 10(-8) and P = 0.02; combined P = 3.86 x 10(-8), respectively). We also replicated associations at two previously reported migraine loci in or near TRPM8 and LRP1. This study identifies the first susceptibility loci for migraine without aura, thereby expanding our knowledge of this debilitating neurological disorder.