"Crime, Conflict and Counting: Another Commentary on Northern Ireland Crime Statistics".

(With R. Geary.)

The effects and side-effects of statistics education: Psychology students’ (mis-)conceptions of probability

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists’ prediction who propose that education reduces misconceptions in general. They also predict that students with higher cognitive ability and higher need for cognition are less susceptible to biases. In Experiments 1 and 2 we found that the equiprobability bias increased with statistics education, and it was negatively correlated with students’ cognitive abilities. The representativeness heuristic was mostly unaffected by education, and it was also unrelated to cognitive abilities. In Experiment 3 we demonstrated through an instruction manipulation (by asking participants to think logically vs. rely on their intuitions) that the reason for these differences was that these biases originated in different cognitive processes.

Statistics sunspots and settlement: Influences on sum of probability curves

Large data sets of radiocarbon dates are becoming a more common feature of archaeological research. The sheer numbers of radiocarbon dates produced, however, raise issues of representation and interpretation. This paper presents a methodology which both reduces the visible impact of dating fluctuations, but also takes into consideration the influence of the underlying radiocarbon calibration curve. By doing so, it may be possible to distinguish between periods of human activity in early medieval Ireland and the statistical tails produced by radiocarbon calibration.

Layered RF Phantom Characterization for Wireless Medical Vital Sign Monitors

Wearable antenna performance measurements were used to characterize a synthetic variable layered phantom testbed, representative of human tissue for operation in the 868/915 MHz, and 2400 MHz industrial, scientific and medical frequency bands. Antenna radiation efficiency measurements on the phantom were compared with measurements on the thorax region of a human test subject. The results show that the phantom is representative of the human body for the application of wireless vital sign monitors, where conductive connections are made to the tissue.

Spatial statistics to estimate peat thickness using airborne radiometric data

Soil carbon stores are a major component of the annual returns required by EU governments to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Peat has a high proportion of soil carbon due to the relatively high carbon density of peat and organic-rich soils. For this reason it has become increasingly important to measure and model soil carbon stores and changes in peat stocks to facilitate the management of carbon changes over time. The approach investigated in this research evaluates the use of airborne geophysical (radiometric) data to estimate peat thickness using the attenuation of bedrock geology radioactivity by superficial peat cover. Remotely sensed radiometric data are validated with ground peat depth measurements combined with non-invasive geophysical surveys. Two field-based case studies exemplify and validate the results. Variography and kriging are used to predict peat thickness from point measurements of peat depth and airborne radiometric data and provide an estimate of uncertainty in the predictions. Cokriging, by assessing the degree of spatial correlation between recent remote sensed geophysical monitoring and previous peat depth models, is used to examine changes in peat stocks over time. The significance of the coregionalisation is that the spatial cross correlation between the remote and ground based data can be used to update the model of peat depth. The result is that by integrating remotely sensed data with ground geophysics, the need is reduced for extensive ground-based monitoring and invasive peat depth measurements. The overall goal is to provide robust estimates of peat thickness to improve estimates of carbon stocks. The implications from the research have a broader significance that promotes a reduction in the need for damaging onsite peat thickness measurement and an increase in the use of remote sensed data for carbon stock estimations.

Dyslexia in higher education: Implications for maths anxiety, statistics anxiety and psychological well-being

This study examined levels of mathematics and statistics anxiety, as well as general mental health amongst undergraduate students with dyslexia (n = 28) and those without dyslexia (n = 71). Students with dyslexia had higher levels of mathematics anxiety relative to those without dyslexia, while statistics anxiety and general mental health were comparable for both reading ability groups. In terms of coping strategies, undergraduates with dyslexia tended to use planning-based strategies and seek instrumental support more frequently than those without dyslexia. Higher mathematics anxiety was associated with having a dyslexia diagnosis, as well as greater levels of worrying, denial, seeking instrumental support and less use of the positive reinterpretation coping strategy. By contrast, statistics anxiety was not predicted by dyslexia diagnosis, but was instead predicted by overall worrying and the use of denial and emotion focused coping strategies. The results suggest that disability practitioners should be aware that university students with dyslexia are at risk of high mathematics anxiety. Additionally, effective anxiety reduction strategies such as positive reframing and thought challenging would form a useful addition to the support package delivered to many students with dyslexia.

Integrating Multiple Point Statistics with Aerial Geophysical Data to assist Groundwater Flow Models

The process of accounting for heterogeneity has made significant advances in statistical research, primarily in the framework of stochastic analysis and the development of multiple-point statistics (MPS). Among MPS techniques, the direct sampling (DS) method is tested to determine its ability to delineate heterogeneity from aerial magnetics data in a regional sandstone aquifer intruded by low-permeability volcanic dykes in Northern Ireland, UK. The use of two two-dimensional bivariate training images aids in creating spatial probability distributions of heterogeneities of hydrogeological interest, despite relatively ‘noisy’ magnetics data (i.e. including hydrogeologically irrelevant urban noise and regional geologic effects). These distributions are incorporated into a hierarchy system where previously published density function and upscaling methods are applied to derive regional distributions of equivalent hydraulic conductivity tensor K. Several K models, as determined by several stochastic realisations of MPS dyke locations, are computed within groundwater flow models and evaluated by comparing modelled heads with field observations. Results show a significant improvement in model calibration when compared to a simplistic homogeneous and isotropic aquifer model that does not account for the dyke occurrence evidenced by airborne magnetic data. The best model is obtained when normal and reverse polarity dykes are computed separately within MPS simulations and when a probability threshold of 0.7 is applied. The presented stochastic approach also provides improvement when compared to a previously published deterministic anisotropic model based on the unprocessed (i.e. noisy) airborne magnetics. This demonstrates the potential of coupling MPS to airborne geophysical data for regional groundwater modelling.

Detecting the work statistics through Ramsey-like interferometry

Out-of-equilibrium statistical mechanics is attracting considerable interest due to the recent advances in the control and manipulations of systems at the quantum level. Recently, an interferometric scheme for the detection of the characteristic function of the work distribution following a time-dependent process has been proposed [L. Mazzola et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 110 (2013) 230602]. There, it was demonstrated that the work statistics of a quantum system undergoing a process can be reconstructed by effectively mapping the characteristic function of work on the state of an ancillary qubit. Here, we expand that work in two important directions. We first apply the protocol to an interesting specific physical example consisting of a superconducting qubit dispersively coupled to the field of a microwave resonator, thus enlarging the class of situations for which our scheme would be key in the task highlighted above. We then account for the interaction of the system with an additional one (which might embody an environment), and generalize the protocol accordingly.

Compact Low-Profile Antenna for Wireless Medical Vital Sign Monitors at 868 MHz

A low-profile wearable antenna suitable for integration into low-cost, disposable medical vital signs monitors is presented. Simulated and measured antenna performance was characterized on a layered human tissue phantom, representative of the thorax region of a range of human bodies. The wearable antenna has sufficient bandwidth for the 868 MHz Industrial, Scientific and Medical frequency band. Wearable radiation efficiency of up to 30 % is reported when mounted in close proximity to the novel human tissue phantom antenna test-bed at 868 MHz.