Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Cytological and isoenzyme analysis of the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes of the onchocerciasis vector Simulium exiguum (Diptera: Simuliidae) in Ecuador

Four cytotypes of Simulium exiguum occur in Ecuador, where this morphospecies is the primary vector of onchocerciasis. In this paper, we give the first full description of the banding pattern of the larval polytene chromosomes of the Quevedo cytotypes differ from the chromosomal standard sequence (of the Cayapa cytotype) by the fixed inversions IIL-5 and IIL-6. The Quevedo cytotype additionally differs from the standard and Bucay cytotypes by processing a differentiated X chromosome, wich is indicated by the inversion IIS-A. As the degree of reproductive isolation between the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes has not yet been estabilished, they must be regarded as intraspecific variants of the same species. In fact, isoenzyme characterizations showed that the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes are differentiated only to the extent expected of incipient species or geographical populations. Moreover, the sibiling species status previously given to the Bucay cytotype needs be reassessed, there being inadequate analysis from areas in Ecuador where Bucay occurs in sympatry with the standard Cayapa cytotype. No isoenzyme electromorphs were discovered that identified all or mostadult females of any one (cytotype-pure) collection.

Morphological aspects of the myocarditis and myositis in Calomys callosus experimentally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi: fibrogenesis and spontaneous regression of fibrosis

Calomys callosus a wild rodent, is a natural host of Trypanosoma cruzi. Twelve C. callosus were infected with 10(5) trypomastigotes of the F strain (a myotropic strain) of T. cruzi. Parasitemia decreased on the 21 st day becoming negative around the 40th day of infection. All animals survived but had positive parasitological tests, until the end of the experiment. The infected animals developed severe inflammation in the myocardium and skeletal muscle. This process was pronounced from the 26 th to the 30th day and gradually subsided from the 50 th day becoming absent or residual on the 64 th day after infection. Collagen was identified by the picro Sirius red method. Fibrogenesis developed early, but regression of fibrosis occurred between the 50th and 64th day. Ultrastructural study disclosed a predominance of macrophages and fibroblasts in the inflammatory infiltrates, with small numbers of lymphocytes. Macrophages had active phagocytosis and showed points of contact with altered muscle cells. Different degrees of matrix expansion were present, with granular and fibrilar deposits and collagen bundles. These alterations subsided by the 64th days. Macrophages seem to be the main immune effector cell in the C. callosus model of infection with T. cruzi. The mechanisms involved in the rapid fibrogenesis and its regression deserve further investigation.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

In vivo differentiation of Trypanosoma cruzi - 1. Experimental evidence of the influence of vector species on metacyclogenesis

Vector species has not hitherto been studied as influencing metacyclogenesis of Trypanosoma cruzi, while the role of the parasite strain has been frequently stressed as of dominant importance in this process. In order to fill this gap in our knowledge, metacyclogenesis was monitored in nine triatomine species. The first part of this paper presents photographs of the main and intermediate parasite stages in each vector species studied. In the second part of the study the proportional distribution of all these forms, as seen in Giemsa stained smears is summarized, thus providing an opportunity to analyze both: the length of time between the ingestion of the blood trypomastigotes and the appearance of metacyclic forms and the rates of developmental stages leading to these latter. The most remarkable observation was that metacyclogenesis rates in vivo appear to be vector dependent, reaching 50 in Rhodnius neglectus, 37 in its congener R. prolixus and being dramatically lower in the majority of Triatoma species (5 in T. sordida, 3 in T. brasiliensis and 0 in T. pseudomaculata) at the 120th day of infection. These observations suggest that through screening of different vector species it is possible to find some that are capable of minimizing or maximizing metacyclic production.

Integrated control measures against Culex quinquefasciatus, the vector of filariasis in Recife

Integrated control measures against Culex quinquefasciastus have been implemented in a pilot urban area in Recife, Brazil. About 3,000 breeding sites found within the operational area were responsible for very high mosquito densities recorded during the pretrial period. Physical control measures have been applied to cess pits before starting a series of 37 treatments of the other sites with Bacillus sphaericus strain 2362, over 27 months. In spite of the difficulties due to environmental conditions, very significant reductions in preimaginal population of C. quinquefasciatus were achieved and, as a consequence, low adult mosquito densities were maintained for a relatively long period of time. Entomological and environmental data gathered in this pilot project can contribute to design an integrated mosquito control program in Recife city.

Highly inducible synthesis of heterologous proteins in epithelial cells carrying a glucocorticoid-responsive vector.

A glucocorticoid-responsive vector is described which allows for the highly inducible expression of complementary DNAs (cDNAs) in stably transfected mammalian cell lines. This vector, pLK-neo, composed of a variant mouse mammary tumor virus long terminal repeat promoter, containing a hormone regulatory element, a Geneticin resistance-encoding gene in a simian virus 40 transcription unit, and a polylinker insertion site for heterologous cDNAs, was used to express the polymeric immunoglobulin (poly-Ig) receptor and the thymocyte marker, Thy-1, in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells and in murine fibroblast L cells. A high level of poly-Ig receptor or Thy-1 mRNA accumulation was observed in MDCK cells in response to dexamethasone with a parallel ten- to 200-fold increase in protein synthesis depending on the recombinant protein and the transfected cell clone.

Life history correlates of adult size in the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi

Adult dry weights of laboratory-reared Anopheles darlingi were highly correlated with wing lengths, which were used to estimate size variation in natural populations of this species. Significant differences in mean wing lengths of females trapped at baits were detected among collections in the same week at one site, but not between three sites in Brazil and Boliva. Relatively higher variability of wing lengths, compared to collections of other Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus), and platykurtic size distributions in large, single-night collections suggested that An. darlingi females caught at baits emerged from heterogenous larval habitats. No relationship was detected between parous state and the body size of wild-caught females. Adult males and females of laboratory-reared An. darlingi did not differ in body size. This absence of sexual size dimorphism is rare among mosquitoes and has not been noted previously in the genus Anopheles.

Les hépatopathies auto-immunes et leurs traitements [Auto-immune liver diseases and their treatment]

There are three main types of auto-immune liver disease, auto-immune hepatitis, primary biliary cirrhosis and primary sclerosing cholangitis. In the case of auto-immune hepatitis, prednisone therapy, with or without azathioprine, can improve quality of life and halt progression to cirrhosis. If there is no response or if the therapy is poorly tolerated, mycophenolate mofetil or cyclosporin should be considered. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), at a dosage of 13 to 15 mg/kg/day slows the progression of fibrosis in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Pruritus may be treated with cholestyramine, rifampicin or opiate antagonists. Ursodeoxycholic acid at a dosage of 20 to 30 mg/kg/day will slow the evolution of fibrosis.

Chagas Disease Vector Control in Tupiza, Southern Bolivia

Heavy domestic and peridomestic infestations of Triatoma infestans were controlled in two villages in southern Bolivia by the application of deltamethrin SC25 (2.5% suspension concentrate) at a target dose of 25 mg a.i./m². Actual applied dose was monitored by HPLC analysis of filter papers placed at various heights on the house walls, and was shown to range from 0 to 59.6 about a mean of 28.5 mg a.i./m². Wall bioassays showed high mortality of T. infestans during the first month after the application of deltamethrin. Mortality declined to zero as summer temperatures increased, but reappeared with the onset of the following winter. In contrast, knockdown was apparent throughout the trial, showing no discernible temperature dependence. House infestation rates, measured by manual sampling and use of paper sheets to collect bug faeces, declined from 79% at the beginning of the trial to zero at the 6 month evaluation. All but one of the houses were still free of T. infestans at the final evaluation 12 months after spraying, although a small number of bugs were found at this time in 5 of 355 peridomestic dependencies. Comparative cost studies endorse the recommendation of large-scale application of deltamethrin, or pyrethroid of similar cost-effectiveness, as a means to eliminate domestic T. infestans populations in order to interrupt transmission of Chagas disease

The Potential for Dispersal of Onchocerciasis in Ecuador in Relation to the Distribution of the Vector Simulium exiguum (Diptera:Simuliidae)

The future dispersal of onchocerciasis in Ecuador is dependent on the distribution of cytotypes of the vector species complex Simulium exiguum. Over the last 14 years, collections of larvae have been made from over 25 rivers, between 80-1600 m altitude, from various sites on both sides of the Andes. Analysis of larval polytene chromosomes was used to determine the distributions of each cytotype. On the western side of the Andes, the Cayapa cytotype (the only cytotype directly incriminated as a vector) has a distribution from Santo Domingo de los Colorados northwards. The Quevedo and Bucay cytotypes occur from Santo Domingo de los Colorados southwards. On the eastern side of the Andes, the Aguarico cytotype occurs in the Rio Aguarico and a new cytotype is present in the tributaries of the Rio Napo. Whether the disease will spread south of Santo Domingo and on the eastern side of the Andes depends on vector capacity of the cytotypes and the dispersal patterns of individuals infected with onchocerciasis. At present the Aguarico, Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes are known to be efficient hosts, but their biting preferences and biting densities have not yet been evaluated