Validierung intralogistischer Systemmodelle anhand gemessener Kenngrößen

Die konsequente Anwendung von einer Validie-rungsmethoden ist eine wichtige Grundlage zur Angabe der Genauigkeit von Simulationsmodellen. Im nachfolgenden Beitrag wird eine Vorgehensweise zur Validierung von Simulationsmodellen vorgestellt und auf ein am Institut für Fördertechnik und Logistiksysteme (IFL) entwickeltes Modell zur Quantifizierung des Energiebedarfs und der Spielzeit von Regalbediengeräten angewandt und analysiert.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.

Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.

Pattern and process: competition causes regular spacing of individuals within plant populations

1 We used simulated and experimental plant populations to analyse mortality-driven pattern formation under size-dependent competition. Larger plants had an advantage under size-asymmetric but not under symmetric competition. Initial patterns were random or clumped. 2 The simulations were individual-based and spatially explicit. Size-dependent competition was modelled with different rules to partition overlapping zones of influence. 3 The experiment used genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana with different morphological plasticity and hence size-dependent competition. Compared with wild types, transgenic individuals over-expressed phytochrome A and had decreased plasticity because of disabled phytochrome-mediated shade avoidance. Therefore, competition among transgenics was more asymmetric compared with wild-types. 4 Density-dependent mortality under symmetric competition did not substantially change the initial spatial pattern. Conversely, simulations under asymmetric competition and experimental patterns of transgenic over-expressors showed patterns of survivors that deviated substantially from random mortality independent of initial patterns. 5 Small-scale initial patterns of wild types were regular rather than random or clumped. We hypothesize that this small-scale regularity may be explained by early shade avoidance of seedlings in their cotyledon stage. 6 Our experimental results support predictions from an individual-based simulation model and support the conclusion that regular spatial patterns of surviving individuals should be interpreted as evidence for strong, asymmetric competitive interactions and subsequent density-dependent mortality.

The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

Interstellar neutral helium in the heliosphere from Interstellar Boundary Explorer observations. III. Mach number of the flow, velocity vector, and temperature from the first six years of measurements

We analyzed observations of interstellar neutral helium (ISN He) obtained from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) satellite during its first six years of operation. We used a refined version of the ISN He simulation model, presented in the companion paper by Sokol et al. (2015b), along with a sophisticated data correlation and uncertainty system and parameter fitting method, described in the companion paper by Swaczyna et al. We analyzed the entire data set together and the yearly subsets, and found the temperature and velocity vector of ISN He in front of the heliosphere. As seen in the previous studies, the allowable parameters are highly correlated and form a four-dimensional tube in the parameter space. The inflow longitudes obtained from the yearly data subsets show a spread of similar to 6 degrees, with the other parameters varying accordingly along the parameter tube, and the minimum chi(2) value is larger than expected. We found, however, that the Mach number of the ISN He flow shows very little scatter and is thus very tightly constrained. It is in excellent agreement with the original analysis of ISN He observations from IBEX and recent reanalyses of observations from Ulysses. We identify a possible inaccuracy in the Warm Breeze parameters as the likely cause of the scatter in the ISN He parameters obtained from the yearly subsets, and we suppose that another component may exist in the signal or a process that is not accounted for in the current physical model of ISN He in front of the heliosphere. From our analysis, the inflow velocity vector, temperature, and Mach number of the flow are equal to lambda(ISNHe) = 255 degrees.8 +/- 0 degrees.5, beta(ISNHe) = 5 degrees.16 +/- 0 degrees.10, T-ISNHe = 7440 +/- 260 K, nu(SNHe) = 25.8 +/- 0.4 km s(-1), and M-ISNHe = 5.079 +/- 0.028, with uncertainties strongly correlated along the parameter tube.

Role of Neurogranin in the regulation of calcium binding to Calmodulin

Role of Neurogranin in the regulation of calcium binding to Calmodulin Anuja Chandrasekar, B.S Advisor: M. Neal Waxham, Ph.D The overall goal of my project was to gain a quantitative understanding of how the interaction between two proteins neurogranin (RC3) and calmodulin (CaM) alters a fundamental property of CaM. CaM, has been extensively studied for more than four decades due to its seminal role in almost all biological functions as a calcium signal transducer. Calcium signals in cardiac and neuronal cells are exquisitely precise and enable activation of some processes while down-regulating others. CaM, with its four calcium binding sites, serves as a central component of calcium signaling in these cells. It is aided in this role as a regulatory hub that differentially activates targets in response to a calcium flux by proteins that alter its calcium binding properties. Neurogranin, also known as RC3, is a member of a family of small neuronal IQ (SNIQ) domain proteins that was originally thought to play a ‘capacitive’ role by sequestering CaM until a calcium influx of sufficient intensity arrived. However, based on earlier work in our lab on neurogranin, we believe that this protein plays a more nuanced role in neurons than simply acting as a CaM buffer. We believe that neurogranin is one of the proteins which, by altering the kinetics of calcium binding allow CaM to decode a variety of signals with fine precision. To quantify the interaction between CaM, neurogranin and calcium, I used biophysical techniques and computational simulations. From my results, I conclude that neurogranin finely regulates the proportion of calcium-saturated CaM and thereby directs CaM’s target specificity.

Estimación de la evapotranspiración real regional a partir de datos satelitales

El objetivo del presente trabajo fue determinar la Evapotranspiración real (ETR) a nivel regional utilizando la información del satélite meteorológico NOAA-AVHRR y comparar los resultados obtenidos con los calculados a partir de un modelo de simulación de balance hídrico. Para la estimación de la ETR se analizaron 30 imágenes que abarcan el oasis Norte de Mendoza. Con la información de los canales C1 (Visible) y C2 (IRC) se obtuvo el índice verde normalizado (NDVI), a través del cual se siguió la evolución anual de la vegetación y con la correspondiente al Infrarrojo térmico (C4 y C5) se calculó la Temperatura de superficie (Ts) por el método Split - Windows Luego se vinculó la Ts calculada por teledetección con la temperatura del aire (Ta), para finalmente calcular la suma acumulada de las diferencias entre Ts y Ta, conocida como SDD (stress degree day) que permite estimar globalmente las características de stress hídrico a nivel regional. Conociendo (Ts-Ta) se estimó la ETR a partir de la radiación neta y de los coeficientes A y B que se estimaron según las características de la cobertura vegetal, aplicando una relación simplificada a partir del balance de energía, desarrollado por Jackson (1977) y Seguin (1983) según la ecuación: ETR = Rn + A -B ( Ts - Ta ) Posteriormente, se incluyó en los cálculos los valores de Emisividad y se hizo variar el coeficiente B de acuerdo a la ocupación del suelo en cada uno de los polígonos en que fue dividida el área de estudio. En la etapa final se compararon estadísticamente los datos de ETR estimados por los distintos métodos con los simulados por el modelo y se obtuvo como conclusión final que: la estimación de la ETR a nivel regional mediante datos satelitales, se adapta muy bien a la mayoría de los casos y es sencilla de calcular, por lo que la metodología desarrollada es fácilmente extrapolable a otros oasis de la región.

El CIFOT como apoyo a la tarea empresarial : the CIFOT as support to the business task

Empresas como HEXA S.A. desean introducir SIG como elemento para incrementar el valor agregado de los proyectos de consultoría que realizan. Tal es el caso del trabajo encomendado por ellos al CIFOT titulado Esquema hidromorfológico de la cuenca del río Tunuyán Superior y clasificación de Usos del Suelo del Oasis Centro Oeste; Provincia de Mendoza. Se unifica en un único modelo digital una serie de cartas topográficas (IGM) digitalizan diversos niveles de información (curvas de nivel, hidrografía de la cuenca del río Tunuyán), red de caminos y su jerarquía. A partir de la base de datos lograda, se generan mapas temáticos de cada cuenca, apoyados con imágenes satelitales Landsat TM, que permiten identificar cobertura nivo- glacial y usos del suelo en el Oasis. Con esta información la empresa obtiene un modelo de simulación del Río Tunuyán para predecir el caudal que conduciría el río ante determinadas nevadas, por ejemplo. Se propone además un modelo de SIG para el monitoreo de la zona.

Producción de cerezo en Mendoza : viabilidad técnico-económica, basada en un modelo de simulación

Se plantea el problema de la correlación existente entre la factibilidad técnico-económica del cultivo del cerezo y su ubicación en las diferentes zonas de cultivo en la Provincia de Mendoza. El objetivo es la determinación de las localizaciones más convenientes. Se ha observado el comportamiento del cultivo del cerezo, en un periodo de 15 años, en varias zonas de la Provincia de Mendoza, analizando los resultados desde un enfoque de aptitud ecológica y de evaluación económica. Para ello, se ha elaborado un modelo de simulación que abarca las principales variables ecológicas y los resultados económicos de precios y costos de cosecha. Resalta, en los resultados, la contradicción entre aptitudes ecológicas y económicas. En las zonas tradicionales de cultivo se obtienen mejores rendimientos por ha, pero el ingreso neto es menor que en las más templadas y precoces del Este de Mendoza, implantadas recientemente con nuevos cultivares, como Marvin Brooks, New Star, Gardner, Celeste y otros que logran, como primicias, precios mucho más altos en el mercado. Este resultado permite aconsejar a los productores sobre los lugares y los cultivares más convenientes para los nuevos cerezales.

Gentrificación liderada por el Estado y empresarialismo urbano en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires

A partir de la experiencia de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, el artículo reflexiona sobre la gentrificación como una estrategia de desarrollo urbano impulsada por diversos gobiernos locales de la región, en un contexto de difusión del empresarialismo urbano. En este marco, el Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires impulsó, desde 1990, un intenso proceso de transformación urbana en el área central y en los barrios del sudeste, generando un tipo particular de interrelación con el sector privado que promueve la gentrificación en barrios del sudeste de la ciudad. Como consecuencia, han emergido recurrentemente conflictos urbanos que se oponen al modelo de desarrollo urbano impulsado desde el GCABA y reivindican el derecho a la ciudad para las mayorías. No obstante, todos estos conflictos mantienen un elevado nivel de fragmentación y no han logrado hasta el momento articularse en un único movimiento social urbano, lo que va en detrimento de las capacidades para modificar la orientación de las políticas urbanas locales.

Simulating heterogeneous multinational firms

This paper develops a micro-simulation framework for multinational entry and sales activities across countries. The model is based on Eaton, Kortum, and Kramarz's (2010) quantitative trade model adapted towards multinational production. Using micro data on Japanese manufacturing firms, we first stylize the empirical regularities of multinational entry and sales activity and estimate the model's structural parameters with simulated method of moments. We then demonstrate that our adapted model is able to replicate important dimensions of the in-sample moments conditioned in our estimation strategy. Importantly, it is able to replicate activity under an economic period with a far different level of FDI barriers than was conditioned upon in our estimation sample. Overall, our research highlights the richness of the simulation framework for performing counterfactual analysis of various FDI policies.