Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^

Abundance of phytoplankton, heterotrophic nanoflagellates and bacteria through the water column at time series station L4 in the Western English Channel. 2007-2011

The marine laboratories in Plymouth have sampled at two principle sites in the Western English Channel for over a century in open-shelf (station E1; 50° 02'N, 4° 22'W) and coastal (station L4; 50° 15'N, 4° 13'W) waters. These stations are seasonally stratified from late-April until September, and the variable biological response is regulated by subtle variations in temperature, light, nutrients and meteorology. Station L4 is characterized by summer nutrient depletion, although intense summer precipitation, increasing riverine input to the system, results in pulses of increased nitrate concentration and surface freshening. The winter nutrient concentrations at E1 are consistent with an open-shelf site. Both stations have a spring and autumn phytoplankton bloom; at station E1, the autumn bloom tends to dominate in terms of chlorophyll concentration. The last two decades have seen a warming of around 0.6°C per decade, and this is superimposed on several periods of warming and cooling over the past century. In general, over the Western English Channel domain, the end of the 20th century was around 0.5°C warmer than the first half of the century. The warming magnitude and trend is consistent with other stations across the north-west European Shelf and occurred during a period of reduced wind stress and increased levels of insolation (+20%); these are both correlated with the larger scale climatic forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Evolución de la Política Agrícola Brasileña : 1980-2010

El objetivo de este artículo es mostrar cuáles fueron las características de la política agrícola stricto sensu que favoreció el agronegocio y el desarrollo agropecuario en Brasil en los últimos 30 años. Para entender este proceso, se realiza una breve descripción de los instrumentos de política agrícola adoptados por el Gobierno en ese lapso, en función de la necesidad de adaptarse a las exigencias de la OMC y a las restricciones de la coyuntura. En la primera fase, de 1964 hasta 1985, se consiguió aumentar significativamente la producción agrícola garantizando el abastecimiento interno, que era el gran obstáculo verificado en el período pre-1964. La modernización agrícola fue conseguida con un gran costo social, pero cabe resaltar que esta cuestión no era una preocupación central de los gobiernos militares. En la segunda fase (1985-2001), cuando comienza la redemocratización, la política agrícola también se integra y es consistente con los objetivos macroeconómicos. Se buscaba en esa época disminuir el déficit fiscal y pagar la deuda externa, lo que fue conseguido con los grandes excedentes generados por el agronegocio a pesar de la disminución drástica de los subsidios agrícolas que fue necesario implementar. En el tercer período (2002-presente) se busca conciliar la promoción del agronegocio con la reducción de la pobreza, que era una agenda pendiente de la democratización y que había sido postergada en función de la necesidad de resolver los problemas fiscales e inflacionarios de la década del 80. Una vez resuelto el problema de la inflación, el Estado recupera su capacidad de planificación y comienza a atacar los problemas sociales.

Evolución de la Política Agrícola Brasileña : 1980-2010

El objetivo de este artículo es mostrar cuáles fueron las características de la política agrícola stricto sensu que favoreció el agronegocio y el desarrollo agropecuario en Brasil en los últimos 30 años. Para entender este proceso, se realiza una breve descripción de los instrumentos de política agrícola adoptados por el Gobierno en ese lapso, en función de la necesidad de adaptarse a las exigencias de la OMC y a las restricciones de la coyuntura. En la primera fase, de 1964 hasta 1985, se consiguió aumentar significativamente la producción agrícola garantizando el abastecimiento interno, que era el gran obstáculo verificado en el período pre-1964. La modernización agrícola fue conseguida con un gran costo social, pero cabe resaltar que esta cuestión no era una preocupación central de los gobiernos militares. En la segunda fase (1985-2001), cuando comienza la redemocratización, la política agrícola también se integra y es consistente con los objetivos macroeconómicos. Se buscaba en esa época disminuir el déficit fiscal y pagar la deuda externa, lo que fue conseguido con los grandes excedentes generados por el agronegocio a pesar de la disminución drástica de los subsidios agrícolas que fue necesario implementar. En el tercer período (2002-presente) se busca conciliar la promoción del agronegocio con la reducción de la pobreza, que era una agenda pendiente de la democratización y que había sido postergada en función de la necesidad de resolver los problemas fiscales e inflacionarios de la década del 80. Una vez resuelto el problema de la inflación, el Estado recupera su capacidad de planificación y comienza a atacar los problemas sociales.

Evolución de la Política Agrícola Brasileña : 1980-2010

El objetivo de este artículo es mostrar cuáles fueron las características de la política agrícola stricto sensu que favoreció el agronegocio y el desarrollo agropecuario en Brasil en los últimos 30 años. Para entender este proceso, se realiza una breve descripción de los instrumentos de política agrícola adoptados por el Gobierno en ese lapso, en función de la necesidad de adaptarse a las exigencias de la OMC y a las restricciones de la coyuntura. En la primera fase, de 1964 hasta 1985, se consiguió aumentar significativamente la producción agrícola garantizando el abastecimiento interno, que era el gran obstáculo verificado en el período pre-1964. La modernización agrícola fue conseguida con un gran costo social, pero cabe resaltar que esta cuestión no era una preocupación central de los gobiernos militares. En la segunda fase (1985-2001), cuando comienza la redemocratización, la política agrícola también se integra y es consistente con los objetivos macroeconómicos. Se buscaba en esa época disminuir el déficit fiscal y pagar la deuda externa, lo que fue conseguido con los grandes excedentes generados por el agronegocio a pesar de la disminución drástica de los subsidios agrícolas que fue necesario implementar. En el tercer período (2002-presente) se busca conciliar la promoción del agronegocio con la reducción de la pobreza, que era una agenda pendiente de la democratización y que había sido postergada en función de la necesidad de resolver los problemas fiscales e inflacionarios de la década del 80. Una vez resuelto el problema de la inflación, el Estado recupera su capacidad de planificación y comienza a atacar los problemas sociales.

Consistent increase in dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in response to high CO2 in five shipboard bioassays from contrasting NW European waters

The ubiquitous marine trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) comprises the greatest natural source of sulfur to the atmosphere and is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We explore the short-term response of DMS production and cycling and that of its algal precursor dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification (OA) in five 96 h shipboard bioassay experiments. Experiments were performed in June and July 2011, using water collected from contrasting sites in NW European waters (Outer Hebrides, Irish Sea, Bay of Biscay, North Sea). Concentrations of DMS and DMSP, alongside rates of DMSP synthesis and DMS production and consumption, were determined during all experiments for ambient CO2 and three high-CO2 treatments (550, 750, 1000 µatm). In general, the response to OA throughout this region showed little variation, despite encompassing a range of biological and biogeochemical conditions. We observed consistent and marked increases in DMS concentrations relative to ambient controls (110% (28-223%) at 550 µatm, 153% (56-295%) at 750 µatm and 225% (79-413%) at 1000 µatm), and decreases in DMSP concentrations (28% (18-40%) at 550 µatm, 44% (18-64%) at 750 µatm and 52% (24-72%) at 1000 µatm). Significant decreases in DMSP synthesis rate constants (µDMSP /d) and DMSP production rates (nmol/d) were observed in two experiments (7-90% decrease), whilst the response under high CO2 from the remaining experiments was generally indistinguishable from ambient controls. Rates of bacterial DMS gross consumption and production gave weak and inconsistent responses to high CO2. The variables and rates we report increase our understanding of the processes behind the response to OA. This could provide the opportunity to improve upon mesocosm-derived empirical modelling relationships and to move towards a mechanistic approach for predicting future DMS concentrations.

Nutrient concentration profiles from time series stations E1 and L4 in the western English Channel from 2000 to 2010

The marine laboratories in Plymouth have sampled at two principle sites in the Western English Channel for over a century in open-shelf (station E1; 50° 02'N, 4° 22'W) and coastal (station L4; 50° 15'N, 4° 13'W) waters. These stations are seasonally stratified from late-April until September, and the variable biological response is regulated by subtle variations in temperature, light, nutrients and meteorology. Station L4 is characterized by summer nutrient depletion, although intense summer precipitation, increasing riverine input to the system, results in pulses of increased nitrate concentration and surface freshening. The winter nutrient concentrations at E1 are consistent with an open-shelf site. Both stations have a spring and autumn phytoplankton bloom; at station E1, the autumn bloom tends to dominate in terms of chlorophyll concentration. The last two decades have seen a warming of around 0.6°C per decade, and this is superimposed on several periods of warming and cooling over the past century. In general, over the Western English Channel domain, the end of the 20th century was around 0.5°C warmer than the first half of the century. The warming magnitude and trend is consistent with other stations across the north-west European Shelf and occurred during a period of reduced wind stress and increased levels of insolation (+20%); these are both correlated with the larger scale climatic forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Hydrocarbons, sterols and alkenones at time series station KERFIX

Hydrocarbons, sterols and alkenones were analyzed in samples collected from a 10 month sediment trap time series deployed in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. Fluxes and within-class distributions varied seasonally. During higher mass and organic carbon (OC) flux periods, which occurred in austral summer and fall, fresh marine inputs were predominant. Vertical fluxes were most intense in January, but limited to one week in duration. They were, however, low compared with other oceanic regions. In contrast, low mass and OC flux periods were characterized by a strong unresolved complex mixture (UCM) in the hydrocarbon fraction and a high proportion of stanols as a result of zooplanktonic grazing. Terrigenous inputs were not detectable. The alkenone compositions were consistent with previous data on suspended particles from Antarctic waters. However, UK'37 values diverged from the linear and exponential fits established by Sikes et al. (1997, doi:10.1016/S0016-7037(97)00017-3) in the low temperature range. The seasonal pattern of alkenone production implied that IPT (integrated production temperature) is likely to be strongly imprinted by austral summer and fall SST (sea surface temperature).

Dominant pelagic amphipods collected as swimmers from a mooring time-series at AWI HAUSGARTEN

Time series length-frequency data are presented for Themisto amphipods collected as swimmers by moored sediment traps since 2000 at the AWI deep-sea observatory HAUSGARTEN (79°N/4°E) in the eastern Fram Strait. Amphipod occurrences increased significantly from 2000 to 2009 at 200-300 m depth, and the North Atlantic species Themisto compressa was continuously present in the samples starting in 2004. We present year-round records of large adult Themisto amphipods, including the appearance of Themisto libellula with a total body length of up to 56.7 mm and juveniles starting from 4.0 mm. The length of Themisto abyssorum ranged from 4.2 to 25.6 mm, whereas it varied for Themisto compressa from 8.8 to 24.4 mm. Length-frequency analysis indicated a life span of 2 years for T. abyssorum and at least 3 years for T. libellula. The absence of juveniles for T. compressa suggested its reproduction in southern subarctic areas and its occasional northward migration with warmer Atlantic water into the eastern Fram Strait. The seasonal and long-term size structures of the three pelagic species were consistent over the course of the study, indicating no changes occurred in cohort development due to increasing abundances or warming water temperatures.

Time series of zooplankton abundance at station L4 in the English Channel from 1988 to 2011

Ongoing zooplankton research at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory has established a time series of zooplankton species since 1988 at L4, a coastal station off Plymouth. Samples were collected by vertical net hauls (WP2 net, mesh 200 µm; UNESCO 1968) from the sea floor (approximately 50 m) to the surface and stored in 4% formalin. Much of the zooplankton analysis has been to the level of "major taxonomic groups" only, and a number of different analysts have participated over the years. The level of expertise has generally been consistent, but the user should be aware that levels of taxonomic discrimination may vary during the course of the dataset. The dominant calanoid copepods are generally well discriminated to species throughout. Calanus has not been routinely examined for species determination, the assumption being that the local population is entirely composed of Calanus helgolandicus. In certain years there has been a particular interest in Temora stylifera, Centropages cherchiae and other species reflected in the dataset. The lack of records in other previous years does not necessarily reflect species absence. We view it as essential for all users of L4 plankton data to establish and maintain contact with the nominated current data originators as well as fully consulting the metadata. While not impinging on free data access, this ensures that this large, species-rich but slightly complex species database is being used in the correct way, and any potential issues with the data are clarified. Furthermore, a proper dialogue with these local experts on the time series will enable where appropriate the most recent sampling timepoints to be used. The data can be downloaded from BODC or from doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.778092 as files for each year by searching for "L4 zooplankton". The most comprehensive dataset is the version downloadable directly from this page. The entire set of zooplankton samples is stored at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory in buffered formalin, and may be available for further taxonomic analysis on request.

Hradec Králové total ozone assimilated time series from 1961 to 2010

Homogenized data series of total ozone measurements taken by the regularly and well calibrated Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers at Hradec Králové (Czech) and the data from the re-analyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim were assimilated and combined to investigate differences between the particular data sets over Central Europe, the NH mid-latitudes. The Dobson-to-Brewer transfer function and the algorithm for approximation of the data from the re-analyses were developed, tested and applied for creation of instrumentally consistent and completed total ozone data series of the 50-year period 1961-2010 of observations. The assimilation has reduced the well-known seasonal differences between Dobson and Brewer data below the 1% calibration limit of the spectrophotometers. Incorporation of the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim total ozone data on days with missing measurements significantly improved completeness and reliability of the data series mainly in the first two decades of the period concerned. Consistent behaviour of the original and assimilated data sets was found in the pre-ozone-hole period (1961-1985). In the post-Pinatubo (1994-2010) era the data series show seasonal differences that can introduce uncertainty in estimation of ozone recovery mainly in the winter-spring season when the effect of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments is expected. All the data sets confirm substantial depletion of ozone also in the summer months that gives rise to the question about its origin. The assimilated and completed data series of total ozone will be further analyzed to quantify chemical ozone losses and contribution of natural atmospheric processes to the ozone depletion over the region. This case study points out importance of selection and evaluation of the quality and consistency of the input data sets used in estimation of long-term ozone changes including recovery of the ozone layer over the selected areas.

The Flowchart Model of Cluster Policy: The Automobile Industry Cluster in China

This paper proposes a general model of the flowchart approach to industrial cluster policy and applies this model to Guangzhou's automobile industry cluster. The flowchart approach to industrial cluster policy is an action plan for prioritizing policy measures in a time-ordered series. We reached the following two conclusions. First,we clarified the effects of Honda, Nissan, and Toyota on agglomeration in Guangzhou's automobile industry cluster. Second, we established that local governments play a crucial role in successful industrial cluster policy, and that the mayor of the local government should be offered incentives in order to target industrial clustering and implement cluster policy.

Post-Crisis Economic Reform in Indonesia:Policy for Intervening in Ownership in Historical Perspective

Introduction : Economic reform in Indonesia after the Asian currency crisis is often discussed in parallel with Thailand and South Korea, which were alike hit by the crisis. It should however be noted that what happened in Indonesia was a change of political regime from authoritarianism to democracy, not just a change of government as seen in Thailand and South Korea. Indonesia’s post-crisis reform should be understood in the context of dismantling of the Soeharto regime to seek a new democratic state system. 　　　In the political sphere, dramatic institutional changes have occurred since the downfall of the Soeharto government in May 1998. In comparison, changes in the economic sphere are more complex than the political changes, as the former involve at least three aspects. The first is the continuity in the basic framework of capitalist system with policy orientation toward economic liberalization. In this framework, the policies to overcome the crisis are continued from the last period of the Soeharto rule, under the support system of IMF and CGI (Consultative Group on Indonesia). The second aspect is the impact of the political regime change on the economic structure. It is considered that the structure of economic vested interests of the Soeharto regime is being disintegrated as the regime breaks down. The third aspect is the impact of the political regime change on economic policy-making process. The process of formulating and implementing policies has changed drastically from the Soeharto time. With these three aspects simultaneously at work, it is not so easy to identify which of them is the main cause for a given specific economic phenomenon emerging in Indonesia today. 　　　Keeping this difficulty in mind, this paper attempts to situate the post-crisis economic reform in the broader context of the historical development of Indonesian economic policies and their achievements. We focus in particular on the reform policies for banking and corporate sectors and resulting structural changes in these sectors. This paper aims at understanding the significance of the changes in the economic ownership structure that are occurring in the post-Soeharto Indonesia. Economic policies here do not mean macro economic policies, such as fiscal, financial and trade policies, but refer to micro economic policies whereby the government intervenes in the economic ownership structure. In Section 1, we clarify why economic policies for intervening in the ownership structure are important in understanding Indonesia. Section 2 follows the historical development of Indonesia’s economic policies as specified above, throughout the four successive periods since Indonesia’s independence, namely, the parliamentary democracy period, the Guided Democracy period under Soekarno, the Soeharto-regime consolidation period, and the Soeharto-regime transfiguration period2. Then we observe what economic ownership structure was at work in the pre-crisis last days of the Soeharto rule as an outcome of the economic policies. In Section 3, we examine what structural changes have taken place in the banking and corporate sectors due to the reform policies in the post-crisis and post-Soeharto Indonesia. Lastly in Section 4, we interpret the current reorganization of the economic ownership in the context of the historical transition of the ownership structure, taking account of the changes in the policy-making processes under democratization.

An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s monetary policy reaction function by applying the Taylor (1993) rule and its open-economy version which employs dynamic OLS. The analysis uses monthly data from the period of April 1998 to December 2007. When the simple Taylor rule was estimated for India, the output gap coefficient was statistically significant, and its sign condition was found to be consistent with theoretical rationale; however, the same was not true of the inflation coefficient. When the Taylor rule with exchange rate was estimated, the coefficients of output gap and exchange rate had statistical significance with the expected signs, whereas the results of inflation remained the same as before. Therefore, the inflation rate has not played a role in the conduct of India’s monetary policy, and it is inappropriate for India to adopt an inflation-target type policy framework.

Transport costs, distance, and time : evidence from the Japanese Census of Logistics

Geographic distance is a standard proxy for transport costs under the simple assumption that freight fees increase monotonically over space. Using the Japanese Census of Logistics, this paper examines the extent to which transport distance and time affect freight costs across shipping modes, commodity groups, and prefecture pairs. The results show substantial heterogeneity in transport costs and time across shipping modes. Consistent with an iceberg formulation of transport costs, distance has a significantly positive effect on freight costs by air transportation. However, I find the puzzling results that business enterprises are likely to pay more for short-distance shipments by truck, ship, and railroad transportation. As a plausible explanation, I discuss aggregation bias arising from freight-specific premiums for timely, frequent, and small-batch shipments.