Beyond the Threshold: Life in the New Russia

Amanda Sprang spent nine months, from September of 1995 to May of 1996, studying at Colby College's program in St. Petersburg, Russia. Through contacts made during previous trips to Russia in middle and high school, Amanda was able to quickly rekindle her old friendships and make new ones with many young Russians from different backgrounds. The following work is a collection of twelve essays about life in the New Russia. The essays are framed by a foreword and an epilogue that help place the entire work in a historical context. Although the theme of each essay emerges from a particular incident, within every story Amanda has addressed numerous topics relating to Russian life in today’s changing society. Her first essay, “Art Klinika," takes place in an avant-garde night club in St. Petersburg, and includes a brief yet impressionable, encounter with three young Russian men. “The Birthday Party” recalls a wild evening at the home of her close friend, showing how the Russians greet special occasions. Both the third and fourth essays take place in Moscow, where Amanda returns to visit old friends. These two essays portray the lives of the new economic elite in comparison with the average citizen, as well as show how young Russians face the new challenges that greet them. "Politics Russian Style" recalls a political rally in St. Petersburg, and attempts to shed light on the wacky political world of an infant democracy. Chapters Six through Ten take place away from the western cities of St. Petersburg and Moscow, as Amanda brings us to the cold, mysterious land of Siberia in the dead of winter. She recounts her five day train ride with a retired, high-powered, Communist party official, her experiences in the provincial city of Irkutsk, and a brief trip to a Buddhist monastery and, later, an excursion to Lake Baikal. Back in St. Petersburg, Chapter Eleven gives a humorous account of a ski trip with several Russian friends. Amanda finishes her work with her final chapter, “The Dacha," which describes a weekend spent at a Russian country home with her friend's family.

Electoral rules, political competition and fiscal spending: regression discontinuity evidence from brazilian municipalities

We exploit a discontinuity in Brazilian municipal election rules to investigate whether political competition has a causal impact on policy choices. In municipalities with less than 200,000 voters mayors are elected with a plurality of the vote. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters a run-off election takes place among the top two candidates if neither achieves a majority of the votes. At a first stage, we show that the possibility of runoff increases political competition. At a second stage, we use the discontinuity as a source of exogenous variation to infer causality from political competition to fiscal policy. Our second stage results suggest that political competition induces more investment and less current spending, particularly personnel expenses. Furthermore, the impact of political competition is larger when incumbents can run for reelection, suggesting incentives matter insofar as incumbents can themselves remain in office.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

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Improved combinations of parametric and nonparametric Regression estimators

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Bayesian analysis of extreme events with threshold estimation

The aim of this paper is to analyze extremal events using Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD), considering explicitly the uncertainty about the threshold. Current practice empirically determines this quantity and proceeds by estimating the GPD parameters based on data beyond it, discarding all the information available be10w the threshold. We introduce a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the center and a GPD for the tail of the distributions and uses all observations for inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold inc1uded. Prior distribution for the parameters are indirectly obtained through experts quantiles elicitation. Posterior inference is available through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Simulations are carried out in order to analyze the performance of our proposed mode1 under a wide range of scenarios. Those scenarios approximate realistic situations found in the literature. We also apply the proposed model to a real dataset, Nasdaq 100, an index of the financiai market that presents many extreme events. Important issues such as predictive analysis and model selection are considered along with possible modeling extensions.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

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Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.