Using theory of change to achieve impact in AAS

The CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework sets out four system level outcomes (SLOs), namely: reducing rural poverty, improving food security, improving nutrition and health and sustainable management of natural resources. In pursuit of these objectives the CGIAR has developed a set of sixteen CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs), each of which is expected to make specific contributions to a range of intermediate development outcomes (IDOs) linked to the SLOs. As part of this work the CRPs are developing impact pathways and theories of change designed to explain how the programs will achieve IDOs. The purpose of the present paper is to explain the approach that the CRP on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is taking to using these programmatic tools to help achieve impact.

An extended computational model of the circulatory system for designing ventricular assist devices.

An extended computational model of the circulatory system has been developed to predict blood flow in the presence of ventricular assist devices (VADs). A novel VAD, placed in the descending aorta, intended to offload the left ventricle (LV) and augment renal perfusion is being studied. For this application, a better understanding of the global hemodynamic response of the VAD, in essence an electrically driven pump, and the cardiovascular system is necessary. To meet this need, a model has been established as a nonlinear, lumped-parameter electrical analog, and simulated results under different states [healthy, congestive heart failure (CHF), and postinsertion of VAD] are presented. The systemic circulation is separated into five compartments and the descending aorta is composed of three components to accurately yield the system response of each section before and after the insertion of the VAD. Delays in valve closing time and blood inertia in the aorta were introduced to deliver a more realistic model. Pump governing equations and optimization are based on fundamental theories of turbomachines and can serve as a practical initial design point for rotary blood pumps. The model's results closely mimic established parameters for the circulatory system and confirm the feasibility of the intra-aortic VAD concept. This computational model can be linked with models of the pump motor to provide a valuable tool for innovative VAD design.

Optimal control predicts human performance on objects with internal degrees of freedom.

On a daily basis, humans interact with a vast range of objects and tools. A class of tasks, which can pose a serious challenge to our motor skills, are those that involve manipulating objects with internal degrees of freedom, such as when folding laundry or using a lasso. Here, we use the framework of optimal feedback control to make predictions of how humans should interact with such objects. We confirm the predictions experimentally in a two-dimensional object manipulation task, in which subjects learned to control six different objects with complex dynamics. We show that the non-intuitive behavior observed when controlling objects with internal degrees of freedom can be accounted for by a simple cost function representing a trade-off between effort and accuracy. In addition to using a simple linear, point-mass optimal control model, we also used an optimal control model, which considers the non-linear dynamics of the human arm. We find that the more realistic optimal control model captures aspects of the data that cannot be accounted for by the linear model or other previous theories of motor control. The results suggest that our everyday interactions with objects can be understood by optimality principles and advocate the use of more realistic optimal control models for the study of human motor neuroscience.

Dread and the disvalue of future pain.

Standard theories of decision-making involving delayed outcomes predict that people should defer a punishment, whilst advancing a reward. In some cases, such as pain, people seem to prefer to expedite punishment, implying that its anticipation carries a cost, often conceptualized as 'dread'. Despite empirical support for the existence of dread, whether and how it depends on prospective delay is unknown. Furthermore, it is unclear whether dread represents a stable component of value, or is modulated by biases such as framing effects. Here, we examine choices made between different numbers of painful shocks to be delivered faithfully at different time points up to 15 minutes in the future, as well as choices between hypothetical painful dental appointments at time points of up to approximately eight months in the future, to test alternative models for how future pain is disvalued. We show that future pain initially becomes increasingly aversive with increasing delay, but does so at a decreasing rate. This is consistent with a value model in which moment-by-moment dread increases up to the time of expected pain, such that dread becomes equivalent to the discounted expectation of pain. For a minority of individuals pain has maximum negative value at intermediate delay, suggesting that the dread function may itself be prospectively discounted in time. Framing an outcome as relief reduces the overall preference to expedite pain, which can be parameterized by reducing the rate of the dread-discounting function. Our data support an account of disvaluation for primary punishments such as pain, which differs fundamentally from existing models applied to financial punishments, in which dread exerts a powerful but time-dependent influence over choice.

An exploration of risk management in global industrial investment

This article explores risk management in global industrial investment by identifying linkages and gaps between theories and practices. It identifies opportunities for further development of the field. Three related bodies of literature have been reviewed: risk management, global manufacturing and investment. The review suggests that risk management in global manufacturing is overlooked in the literature; that existing theoretical risk management processes are not well developed in the global manufacturing context and that the investment literature applies mainly to financial risk assessment rather than investment risk management structures. Further, there appears to be a serious lack of systematic industrial risk management in investment decision making. This article highlights the opportunities to deploy current good practices more effectively as well as the need to develop more robust theories of industrial investment risk management. The approach adopted to investigate this multidisciplinary topic included a historical review of literature to understand the diverse background of theoretical development. A case study research approach was adopted to collect data, involving four global manufacturing companies and one risk management advisory company to observe the patterns and rationale of current practices. Supporting arguments from secondary data sources reinforced the findings. The research focuses risk management in global industrial investment. It links theories with practice to understand the existing knowledge gap and proposes key research themes for further research. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1460-3799 Risk Management.

Theoretical foundation of Zisman's empirical equation for wetting of liquids on solid surfaces

Theories of wetting of liquids on solid surfaces under the condition that van der Waals force is dominant are briefly reviewed. We show theoretically that Zisman's empirical equation for wetting of liquids on solid surfaces is a linear approximation of the Young-van der Waals equation in the wetting region, and we express the two parameters in Zisman's empirical equation in terms of the dielectric polarizabilities of the solid and liquids. The materials contained in this paper are suitable for physics teaching of wetting phenomena for undergraduate, graduate, general physicist, etc.

A method to calculate the surface tension of a cylindrical droplet

The history of Laplace's equations for spherical and cylindrical droplets and the concept of dividing surface in Gibbs' thermodynamic theory of capillary phenomena are briefly reviewed. The existing theories of surface tensions of cylindrical droplets are briefly reviewed too. For cylindrical droplets, a new method to calculate the radius and the surface tension of the surface of tension is given. This method is suitable to be used by molecular dynamics simulations.

Gold nanoparticles as fine tuners of electrochemical properties of the electrode/solution interface

Recently, a novel approach for preparing SERS and SPR substrates was developed, which indicates a potential application in tailoring the interfacial structure of an electrode surface. In this study, (3-mercaptopropyl)trimethoxysilane (MPTMS) was selected as a polymeric adhesive layer, and a low concentration of colloid Au solution was used to achieve a more accurate control over interface morphology at nanoscale dimensions due to slow self-assembling kinetics of gold nanoparticle's. Subsequent seeding growth of these MPTMS-supported submonolayers of gold nanoparticles in Au3+/NH2OH aqueous solution enlarges particle size and eventually results in the generation of conductive gold films (similar to previous (3-aminopropyl)trimethoxysilane-supported gold films). Such tunable interface structure was evaluated by atomic force microscopy (AFM). Also, ac impedance spectroscopy (ACIS) and cyclic voltammograms were performed to evaluate electrochemical properties of the as-prepared interfaces by using Fe(CN)(6) (3-/4-) couples as a probe. Furthermore, relevant theories of microarray electrodes were introduced into this study to explain the highly tunable electrochemical properties of the as-prepared interfaces. As a result, it is concluded that the electrochemical properties toward Fe(CN)(6) (3-/4-) couples are highly dependent on the active nanoelectrode (nanoparticles) area fraction and nanoparticles are fine-tuners of interfacial properties because the number density. (numbers/unit area) and size of nanoparticles are highly tunable by self-assembling and seeding growth time scale control. This is in agreement with the theoretical expectations for a microarray electrode if a single nanoparticle tethered to a blocking SAM is taken as a nanoelectrode and 2-D nanoparticle assemblies are taken as nanoelectrode arrays.

THE COMPATIBILITY AND CRYSTALLIZATION OF THE MIXTURES OF POLY (TETRAHYDROFURAN-b-METHYL METHACRYLATE) DIBLOCK COPOLYMER WITH POLYVINYL CHLORIDE HOMOPOLYMER

The compatibility and crystallization behaviour of the mixtures of poly (tetrahydrofuran-methyl methacrylate) diblock copolymer (PTHF-b-PMMA) with polyvinyl chloride has been studied. We found that the compatibility of these blends, in which there is special interaction between the homopolymer and the PMMA block of the copolymer, is much better than that of the AB/A type blends; and that the crystallization rate and crystallinity of PTHF microdomain changed greatly due to the swollen by PVC homopolymer. In this paper, these changes in cryatallization are well explained according to the theories of block copolymer blends and the density gradient model presented by JIANG Ming.

Changes in innovation styles - comprehensive study of the changes in innovation styles to identify the causes and effects of different influencing factors and capabilities to create a general innovation pattern.

An investigation in innovation management and entrepreneurial management is conducted in this thesis. The aim of the research is to explore changes of innovation styles in the transformation process from a start-up company to a more mature phase of business, to predict in a second step future sustainability and the probability of success. As businesses grow in revenue, corporate size and functional complexity, various triggers, supporters and drivers affect innovation and company's success. In a comprehensive study more than 200 innovative and technology driven companies have been examined and compared to identify patterns in different performance levels. All of them have been founded under the same formal requirements of the Munich Business Plan Competition -a research approach which allowed a unique snapshot that only long-term studies would be able to provide. The general objective was to identify the correlation between different factors, as well as different dimensions, to incremental and radical innovations realised. The 12 hypothesis were formed to prove have been derived from a comprehensive literature review. The relevant academic and practitioner literature on entrepreneurial, innovation, and knowledge management as well as social network theory revealed that the concept of innovation has evolved significantly over the last decade. A review of over 15 innovation models/frameworks contributed to understand what innovation in context means and what the dimensions are. It appears that the complex theories of innovation can be described by the increasing extent of social ingredients in the explanation of innovativeness. Originally based on tangible forms of capital, and on the necessity of pull and technology push, innovation management is today integrated in a larger system. Therefore, two research instruments have been developed to explore the changes in innovations styles. The Innovation Management Audits (IMA Start-up and IMA Mature) provided statements related to product/service development, innovativeness in various typologies, resources for innovations, innovation capabilities in conjunction to knowledge and management, social networks as well as the measurement of outcomes to generate high-quality data for further exploration. In obtaining results the mature companies have been clustered in the performance level low, average and high, while the start-up companies have been kept as one cluster. Firstly, the analysis exposed that knowledge, the process of acquiring knowledge, interorganisational networks and resources for innovations are the most important driving factors for innovation and success. Secondly, the actual change of the innovation style provides new insights about the importance of focusing on sustaining success and innovation ii 16 key areas. Thirdly, a detailed overview of triggers, supporters and drivers for innovation and success for each dimension support decision makers in putting their company in the right direction. Fourthly, a critical review of contemporary strategic management in conjunction to the findings provides recommendation of how to apply well-known management tools. Last but not least, the Munich cluster is analysed providing an estimation of the success probability of the different performance cluster and start-up companies. For the analysis of the probability of success of the newly developed as well as statistically and qualitative validated ICP Model (Innovativeness, Capabilities & Potential) has been developed and applied. While the model was primarily developed to evaluate the probability of success of companies; it has equal application in the situation to measure innovativeness to identify the impact of various strategic initiatives within small or large enterprises. The main findings of the model are that competitor, and customer orientation and acquiring knowledge important for incremental and radical innovation. Formal and interorganisation networks are important to foster innovation but informal networks appear to be detrimental to innovation. The testing of the ICP model h the long term is recommended as one subject of further research. Another is to investigate some of the more intangible aspects of innovation management such as attitude and motivation of mangers. IV

A scenario-driven decision support system for serious crime investigation

Q. Shen, J. Keppens, C. Aitken, B. Schafer, and M. Lee. A scenario driven decision support system for serious crime investigation. Law, Probability and Risk, 5(2):87-117, 2006. Sponsorship: UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant GR/S63267; partially supported by grant GR/S98603

Compositional Bayesian modelling and its application to decision support in crime investigation

J. Keppens, Q. Shen and M. Lee. Compositional Bayesian modelling and its application to decision support in crime investigation. Proceedings of the 19th International Workshop on Qualitative Reasoning, pages 138-148.

Performing the Local and the Global : The Theatre Festivals of Lake Constance

Wilkinson, Jane, Performing the Local and the Global: The Theatre Festivals of Lake Constance (Peter Lang, 2007), pp.286 RAE2008

Constructing Universities as Organizations: University Reforms in Poland in the Light of Institutional Theory

This chapter shows that apart from changes at the systemic and institutional levels, successful reform implementation struggles with a gradual change in academic beliefs, attitudes and behaviours. Currently, visions of the university proposed by the Polish academic community and visions of it proposed by Polish reformers and policymakers (within ongoing reforms) are worlds apart. I shall study recent reforms in the context of specific academic self--protective narratives being produced in the last two decades (at the collective level of the academic profession) and in the context of the Ivory Tower university ideals predominant at the individual level (as studied comparatively through a large--scale European survey of the academic profession). Institutions change both swiftly, radically – and slowly, gradually. Research literature on institutional change until recently was focused almost exclusively on the role of radical changes caused by external shocks, leading to radical institutional reconfigurations. And research literature about the gradual, incremental institutional change have been emergent for about a decade and a half now (Mahoney and Thelen 2010; Streeck and Thelen 2005, 2009; Thelen 2003). Polish higher education provides interesting empirical grounds to test institutional theories. Both types of transformations (radical and gradual) may lead to equally permanent changes in the functioning of institutions, equally deep transformations of their fundamental rules, norms and operating procedures. Questions about institutional change are questions about characteristics of institutions undergoing changes. Endogenous institutional change is as important as exogenous change (Mahoney and Thelen 2010: 3). Moments in which there emerge opportunities of performing deep institutional reforms are short (in Poland these moments occurred in 2009-2012), and between them there are long periods of institutional stasis and stability (Pierson 2004: 134-135). The premises of theories of institutional change can be applied systematically to a system of higher education which shows an unprecedented rate of change and which is exposed to broad, fundamental reform programmes. There are many ways to discuss the Kudrycka reforms - and "constructing Polish universities as organizations" (rather than traditional academic "institutions") is one of more promising. In this account, Polish universities are under construction as organizations, and under siege as institutions. They are being rationalized as organizations, following instrumental rather than institutional logics. Polish academics in their views and attitudes are still following an institutional logic, while Polish reforms are following the new (New Public Management-led) instrumental logics. Both are on a collision course about basic values. Reforms and reformees seem to be worlds apart. I am discussing the the two contrasting visions of the university and describing the Kudrycka reforms as the reistitutionalization of the research mission of Polish universities. The core of reforms is a new level of funding and governance - the intermediary one (and no longer the state one), with four new peer-run institutions, with the KEJN, PKA and NCN in the lead. Poland has been beginning to follow the "global rules of the academic game" since 2009. I am also discussing two academic self-protection modes agains reforms: (Polish) "national academic traditions" and "institutional exceptionalism" (of Polish HE). Both discourses prevailed for two decades, none seems socially (and politically) acceptable any more. Old myths do not seem to fit new realities. In this context I am discussing briefly and through large-scale empirical data the low connectedness to the outside world of Polish HE institutions, low influence of the government on HE policies and the low level of academic entrepreneurialism, as seen through the EUROAC/CAP micro-level data. The conclusion is that the Kudrycka reforms are an imporant first step only - Poland is too slow in reforms, and reforms are both underfunded and inconsistent. Poland is still accumulating disadvantages as public funding and university reforms have not reached a critical point. Ever more efforts lead to ever less results, as macro-level data show. Consequently, it may be useful to construct universities as organizations in Poland to a higher degree than elsewhere in Europe, and especially in Western Europe.

Job retention and turnover: a study of child protection and welfare social workers in Ireland

Retaining social workers in child protection and welfare organisations has been identified as a problem in Ireland (McGrath, 2001; Ombudsman for Children, 2006; Houses of the Oireachtas, 2008) and internationally (Ellet et al., 2006; Mor Barak et al., 2006; Tham, 2006). While low levels of retention have been identified, there is no research that examines the factors in Ireland that influence the retention of social workers. In this thesis, data is analysed from qualitative interviews with 45 social workers in the Health Service Executive South about what influences their decisions to stay in or leave child protection and welfare social work. These social workers’ views are examined in relation to quantitative research on the levels of turnover and employment mobility of child protection and welfare social workers employed in the same organisation. Contrary to expectations, the study found that the retention rate of social workers during the period of data collection (March 2005 to December 2006) was high and that the majority of social workers remained positive about this work and their retention. The quality of social workers’ supervision, social supports from colleagues, high levels of autonomy, a commitment to child protection and welfare work, good variety in the work, and a perception that they were making a difference, emerged as important factors in social workers’ decisions to stay. Perceptions of being unsupported by the organisation, which was usually described in terms of high caseloads and demanding workloads, a lack of resources, work with involuntary clients and not being able to make a difference, were the most significant factors in social workers’ decisions to leave and/or to want to leave. Social workers felt particularly professionally unsupported when they received low quality and/or infrequent professional supervision. This thesis critiques the theories of perceived organisational support theory, social exchange theory and job characteristics theory, and uses the concept of ‘professional career’, to help analyse the retention of social workers in child protection and welfare.