Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Economic Development in Latin America and the regional integrations in the twentieth century

This paper discusses some economic integrations in Latin America, which have become an expression of governance in the neoliberalist context -- These integrations are also the results of second-generation adjustments in terms of trade openness, sale of state assets, free short-term capital mobility and Asian and European integrations that preceded the regional ones -- In addition to this, this paper provides answers to the following questions: Are integrations aiming to achieve development? Would North-countries integrations take the same endangering course as in South America? Who should benefit from the integrations? Is there a link between development and demographics?

Understanding import diversification: an empirical analysis

This paper analyzes import diversification in an aggregated perspective -- Using a dataset for 60 countries covering the period 1995-2010, we study the main determinants of import diversification -- We expect to contribute to the current literature, taking into account that there have been few empirical studies addressing import diversification and more specifically, at the cross-country level -- We take into account variables classified into four categories: Structural factors, macroeconomic factors, international trade factors and political factors -- We find robust evidence that total factor productivity (TFP), capital stock, real Exchange rates and terms of trade are key drivers of import diversification -- On the other hand, domestic consumption and trade openness exert an effect leading to import concentration -- We interpret this finding, taking into account the theoretical framework provided by the international trade and growth theories

Current account balance cyclicality

We assess the cyclicality of current account balances for the period 2001Q1-2014Q4, focussing on Portugal and in Germany, as a benchmark. We find that the cyclical component of the current account was positively explained by 3-months Euribor, but negatively by the financial crisis, systemic stress in Europe, employment and compensation of employees. Moreover, the non-cyclical current account was positively affected by the period of the Economic and Financial Adjustment Program and the terms of trade, but negatively influenced by financial integration.

A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK

In previous work we have applied the environmental multi-region input-output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner et al (2007) to examine the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the Rest of the UK. In McGregor et al (2008) we construct an interregional economy-environment input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) framework that allows us to investigate methods of attributing responsibility for pollution generation in the UK at the regional level. This facilitates analysis of the nature and significance of environmental spillovers and the existence of an environmental ‘trade balance’ between regions. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, we argue that the use of such a framework allows us to begin to consider questions such as the extent to which a devolved authority like the Scottish Parliament can and should be responsible for contributing to national targets for reductions in emissions levels (e.g. the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol) when it is limited in the way it can control emissions, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the UK. However, while such analysis is useful in terms of accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. In this paper we argue that where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium approach that models behavioural relationships in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is more appropriate and informative. To illustrate our analysis, we compare the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using both IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels affect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

The capital gains from trade are not enough: Evidence from the environmental accounts of Venezuela and Mexico

In principle, a country can not endure negative genuine savings for longperiods of time without experiencing declining consumption. Nevertheless,theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter ofnon-renewable natural resources could experience permanent negativegenuine savings and still ensure sustainability. The first one allegesthat the capital gains arising from the expected improvement in theterms of trade would suffice to compensate for the negative savings ofthe resource exporter. The second alternative points at technologicalchange as a way to avoid economic collapse. This paper uses the dataof Venezuela and Mexico to empirically test the first of these twohypotheses. The results presented here prove that the terms oftrade do not suffice to compensate the depletion of oil reservesin these two open economies.

From trade to industry. The wine production sector in the Penedès Denomination of Origin, 1940-2000

[cat] Aquest treball té com a objectiu mostrar el grau en què el sector de la producció de vi a la Denominació d'Origen Penedès ha respost als reptes que s’han plantejat tant en termes de l'oferta (de consolidació i sorgiment dels països productors fora de l'esfera europea tradicional) i de la demanda (caiguda de la el consum de vi i els nous hàbits de consum) durant la segona meitat del segle XX. El document analitza l'evolució del sector a la regió des del començament de la dècada de 1940 fins a la fi del segle. Amb la fi de la Guerra Civil de 1936-1939 el sector va haver d'afrontar una caiguda de la producció, la qual va continuar concentrant-se en la comercialització de vins tradicionals. Aquesta situació va canviar quan, a finals de la dècada de 1960, la demanda es va girar cada vegada més als vins de major qualitat embotellats. Des del punt de vista legislatiu, la resposta es va centrar en la innovació tecnològica i la reestructuració de l'empresa. Aquest període va ser testimoni de la introducció de nous equips i processos, com ara l’acer inoxidable i tancs de fermentació a temperatura controlada, amb els vins embotellats expulsant el vi a granel i la transformació dels grans magatzemistes en cellers i caves. A més, una de les principals característiques del període 1970-1985 va ser la formació dels grans conglomerats empresarials dels vins i del cava. L’entrada d'Espanya a la Unió Europea el 1986 va impulsar una acceleració d'aquest procés de transformació, deixant el sector format principalment per empreses que produeixen vins i caves, que han introduït els vins negres i varietals en la seva oferta de productes, que posseeixen moltes hectàrees de vinyes i en molts casos, que han mostrat una clara intenció de penetrar en el mercat internacional.

From trade to industry. The wine production sector in the Penedès Denomination of Origin, 1940-2000

[cat] Aquest treball té com a objectiu mostrar el grau en què el sector de la producció de vi a la Denominació d'Origen Penedès ha respost als reptes que s’han plantejat tant en termes de l'oferta (de consolidació i sorgiment dels països productors fora de l'esfera europea tradicional) i de la demanda (caiguda de la el consum de vi i els nous hàbits de consum) durant la segona meitat del segle XX. El document analitza l'evolució del sector a la regió des del començament de la dècada de 1940 fins a la fi del segle. Amb la fi de la Guerra Civil de 1936-1939 el sector va haver d'afrontar una caiguda de la producció, la qual va continuar concentrant-se en la comercialització de vins tradicionals. Aquesta situació va canviar quan, a finals de la dècada de 1960, la demanda es va girar cada vegada més als vins de major qualitat embotellats. Des del punt de vista legislatiu, la resposta es va centrar en la innovació tecnològica i la reestructuració de l'empresa. Aquest període va ser testimoni de la introducció de nous equips i processos, com ara l’acer inoxidable i tancs de fermentació a temperatura controlada, amb els vins embotellats expulsant el vi a granel i la transformació dels grans magatzemistes en cellers i caves. A més, una de les principals característiques del període 1970-1985 va ser la formació dels grans conglomerats empresarials dels vins i del cava. L’entrada d'Espanya a la Unió Europea el 1986 va impulsar una acceleració d'aquest procés de transformació, deixant el sector format principalment per empreses que produeixen vins i caves, que han introduït els vins negres i varietals en la seva oferta de productes, que posseeixen moltes hectàrees de vinyes i en molts casos, que han mostrat una clara intenció de penetrar en el mercat internacional.

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

From Fordism to neoconservatism : free trade and Canadian industrial policy in an era of globalism /

Nothing today affects the lives of people in countries throughout the industrialized and developing world as much as international trade. Nowhere is this more true than in Canada. Canada's involvement in international trade has a long history dating back to 1854 when it was a British colony. As a major trading country, Canada has always adopted a proactive industrial policy which has been largely responsible for its relative economic prosperi ty. But, wi th businesses now free to invest and divest under the terms of the CUFTA and the NAFTA, the most fundamental concerns for Canadians, in a borderless world, are what powers will the Canadian government have to shape industrial policy, and to what extent can Canada continue as a viable nationstate if it can no longer control its national economy? These are important concerns because, in world without borders, the adjustment process becomes more volatile and more difficult to manage. The CUFTA and the NAFTA not only create the rules for conducting trade, but they also establish a set of new rules for the Canadian government that will diminish its power. As a member of a new North American trading bloc, Canada will find itself subject to a set of forces requiring analysis beyond participation in a conventional free trade area. Because many of the traditional levers of government will now be subject to external control imposed by these agreements, Canada will not be able to mount certain policies in the future that it has relied on in the past. This reality limits the pro-active role of the Canadian state to use policies and programmes for the country's immediate national development. What this thesis attempts is an examination of the evolution of Canadian industrial policy, in effect, the transi tion from Fordism to Neoconservatism, and an assessment of Canada's future as a nation-state as it tries to find security and improved access in a free trade arrangement. Unless Canada takes steps to neutralize the asymmetry of power between itself and the United States through adjustment programmes, it is the contention of this thesis that its economic future is anything but stable.

Benefits, challenges, and limitations of fair trade as a social justice movement

This thesis answers some important questions about how Fair Trade is experienced and perceived by some Northern sellers, consumers, activists, advocates, practitioners, and an importer. As it relates to sellers, I focus only on small scale independent businesses (i.e. I do not include large corporate businesses in my interview sample). Fair Trade works to establish a dignified livelihood for many producers in the South. Some of the most important actors in the Fair Trade movement are the people who buy, sell, and/or advocate for Fair Trade in the North. Fair Trade is largely a consumer movement which relies on the purchase of Fair Trade products. Without consumers purchasing Fair Trade products, retailers providing the products for sale, and activists raising awareness of Fair Trade, the movement, as it is presently constituted, would be non-existent. This qualitative research is based on 19 in-depth i.nterviews with nine interviewees involved with Fair Trade in Canada. I focus on benefits, challenges, and limitations of Fair Trade in the context of their involvement with it. I describe and analyze how people become involved with Fair Trade, what motivates them to do so, what they hope to achieve, and the benefits of being involved. I also describe and analyze how people understand and deal with any challenges and limitations associated with their involvement with Fair Trade. I also explore whether involvement with Fair Trade influences how people think about other products that they purchase and, if so, in what ways. I focus mainly on the commodity of coffee, but my discussion is not limited to this single commodity. Interviewees' experiences with and participation in Fair Trade vary in terms of their level of involvement and interest in the broader Fair Trade movement (as opposed to just participating in the market component). This research reveals that while Fair Trade is a small movement, sellers, consumers, and activists have had much success in the advancement of Fair Trade. While challenges have not deterred interviewees from continuing to participate in Fair Trade, analysis and explanation of such challenges provides the opportunity for Fair Trade practitioners to develop effective solutions in an effort to meet the needs of various Fair Trade actors.

Microbial quality of shrimp products of export trade produced from aquacultured shrimp

Bacteriological quality of individually quick frozen (IQF) shrimp products produced from aquacultured tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) has been analysed in terms of aerobic plate count (APC), coliforms, Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes. Eight hundred forty-six samples of raw, peeled, and deveined tail-on (RPTO), 928 samples of cooked, peeled, and deveined tail-on (CPTO), 295 samples of headless, undeveined shell-on (HLSO), and 141 samples of raw, peeled, and deveined tail-off (RPND) shrimps were analysed for the above bacteriological parameters. Salmonella was isolated in only one sample of raw, peeled tail-on. Serotyping of the strain revealed that it was S. typhimurium. While none of the cooked, peeled tail-on shrimp samples exceeded the aerobic plate count (APC) of 105 colony forming units per gram (cfu/g), 2.5% of raw, peeled, tail-on, 6.4% of raw, peeled tail-off, and 7.5% of headless shell-on shrimp samples exceeded that level. Coliforms were detected in all the products, though at a low level. Prevalence of coliforms was higher in headless shell-on (26%) shrimps followed by raw, peeled, and deveined tail-off (19%), raw, peeled tail-on (10%), and cooked, peeled tail-on (3.8%) shrimps. While none of the cooked, peeled tail-on shrimp samples were positive for coagulase-positive staphylococci and E. coli, 0.6–1.3% of the raw, peeled tail-on were positive for staphylococci and E. coli, respectively. Prevalence of staphylococci was highest in raw, peeled tail-off (5%) shrimps and the highest prevalence of E. coli (4.8%) was noticed in headless shell-on shrimps. L. monocytogenes was not detected in any of the cooked, peeled tail-on shrimps. Overall results revealed that the plant under investigation had exerted good process control in order to maintain superior bacteriological quality of their products

The politics of CAP reform: Trade negotiations, institutional settings and blame avoidance

In this article we argue that the conclusion of the GATT Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and the subsequent role of the WTO has changed the international context of CAP policy-making. However, comparing the three latest CAP reforms, we demonstrate that pressures on the CAP arising from international trade negotiations cannot alone account for the way in which the EU responds in terms of CAP reform. The institutional setting within which the reform package was determined also played a crucial role. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the CoAM seems to be a more conducive setting than the European Council for undertaking substantial reform of the CAP. We suggest that the choice of institutional setting is influenced by the desire of farm ministers and of heads of state or government to avoid blame for unpopular decisions. When CAP reform is an integral part of a broader package, farm ministers pass the final decision to the European Council and when CAP reform is defined as a separate issue the European Council avoids involvement.

A simple framework for assessing the trade-off between the climate impact of aviation carbon dioxide emissions and contrails for a single flight

Persistent contrails are an important climate impact of aviation which could potentially be reduced by re-routing aircraft to avoid contrailing; however this generally increases both the flight length and its corresponding CO emissions. Here, we provide a simple framework to assess the trade-off between the climate impact of CO emissions and contrails for a single flight, in terms of the absolute global warming potential and absolute global temperature potential metrics for time horizons of 20, 50 and 100 years. We use the framework to illustrate the maximum extra distance (with no altitude changes) that can be added to a flight and still reduce its overall climate impact. Small aircraft can fly up to four times further to avoid contrailing than large aircraft. The results have a strong dependence on the applied metric and time horizon. Applying a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in the contrail radiative forcing and climate efficacy leads to a factor of 20 difference in the maximum extra distance that could be flown to avoid a contrail. The impact of re-routing on other climatically-important aviation emissions could also be considered in this framework.